Media Coverage of COVID -19

[kristiang85]

Talking about deaths as a measure of the effect on hospitals or the presence or lack of a second wave is disingenuous. Have you missed the daily new infections statistics? Did you miss the reports that the situation is worse precisely because treatment has improved, resulting in patients staying longer in hospitals instead of dying?
@sjpowermac did enlighten you with a similar post. I suggest you concentrate on "patients in hospital" data and if you want to argue there is no "second wave".

Let's look at the data (see attached). You will see emergency admissions are down on average. This suggests that hospitals are full of elective patients instead, which would make sense given how many treatments were cancelled or delayed throughout 2020. Which suggests the pressure on hospitals is due to poor government policy (meaning people staying away from hospitals) throughout the 2020 rather than COVID-19. The reduced emergency admissions but increased rates of positive tests in the hospitals also suggest a lot of hospital transmission (don't forget, a hospital 'admission' in the COVID stats can be someone who tests positive whilst already in hospital). Finally, we are over the normal average occupancy of around ~90%, but in the graphs even PCR positives* account for a small amount. There is of course COVID in patients and signifciant treatment is needed, but normal winter illnesses are far down, so the overall impact is negligible.

These are obviously average figures, and some hospitals will be under a lot of stress right now. These are the ones the media camps outside and gets soundbites from doctors. So it gives the image of a health service about to collapse, but in the majority of the country this is patently not the case. But obviously a reporter standing outside a fairly peaceful and functioning hospital does not make a news story and tweets from doctors saying they've had a normal day in work don't get trending on social media...

(*Also to note, you state daily "infection statistics" - but these are PCR positive tests. Obviously this has been covered many times, but I cannot remphasise this enough: this is not an infection; it is evidence you have some strands of COVID in your sample, which can either be old virus matter or indeed similar cornaviruses. In the traditional sense of the word, you are not ill unless you have a positive diagnostic test plus symtoms - I would say the majority of the 50k positive tests are asymptomatic. Heaven knows why decades of medical practice has been turned on its head this year. No risks of significiant asymptomatic transmission have been found in detailed studies since the beginning of the pandemic, so this is a fallacy based on initial reports from China at the start of the outbreak. Pre-symptomatic is evident, but again not in significant amounts.)

There is pressure from reduced staffing due to absence due to self isolation, but again this is the product of overtesting using an overly sensitive PCR. Many of these staff absences will be unnecessary. Edit: I think they are starting to transfer to LFT testing, with PCR confirmatory testing, which could help with this.

The upshot of all of this is that the country is in lockdown not for a virus but to relieve pressure on hospitals caused by poor management, exascerbated by a hyperbolic media and social media on a wave of over-testing using methods not fit for purpose. This sets the precedent that we should be locked down every winter the health services experiences this type of situation, which would be ridiculous, as it is just unworkable to do every year. So why this year? I just can't see the justification. And in the long run the lost jobs and economic activity, caused by this lockdown period, which lead to reduced NI receipts (from direct and indirect taxation) will harm the NHS more, meaning bluntly more people will die over the coming years. There is no way we will not enter another period of austerity after all this, and it's always the health service which is particularly sensitive to this.

 

[6862]

Agreed, another person after their 15 minutes of fame and hoping for a tidy payout from it as well. If he was any good he would be questioning the validity of all this mask wearing and not making such stupid statements. I have no patience with these so called professionals who just want to make a name for themselves.

I would encourage you to make a complaint about this as well. The more people that point out how inappropriate this sort of 'reporting' is, the better.

 

[Richard Scott]

I would encourage you to make a complaint about this as well. The more people that point out how inappropriate this sort of 'reporting' is, the better.

Good idea, will look into that this afternoon.

 

[sjpowermac]

Let's look at the data (see attached). You will see emergency admissions are down on average. This suggests that hospitals are full of elective patients instead, which would make sense given how many treatments were cancelled or delayed throughout 2020. Which suggests the pressure on hospitals is due to poor government policy (meaning people staying away from hospitals) throughout the 2020 rather than COVID-19. The reduced emergency admissions but increased rates of positive tests in the hospitals also suggest a lot of hospital transmission (don't forget, a hospital 'admission' in the COVID stats can be someone who tests positive whilst already in hospital). Finally, we are over the normal average occupancy of around ~90%, but in the graphs even PCR positives* account for a small amount. There is of course COVID in patients and signifciant treatment is needed, but normal winter illnesses are far down, so the overall impact is negligible.

These are obviously average figures, and some hospitals will be under a lot of stress right now. These are the ones the media camps outside and gets soundbites from doctors. So it gives the image of a health service about to collapse, but in the majority of the country this is patently not the case. But obviously a reporter standing outside a fairly peaceful and functioning hospital does not make a news story and tweets from doctors saying they've had a normal day in work don't get trending on social media...

(*Also to note, you state daily "infection statistics" - but these are PCR positive tests. Obviously this has been covered many times, but I cannot remphasise this enough: this is not an infection; it is evidence you have some strands of COVID in your sample, which can either be old virus matter or indeed similar cornaviruses. In the traditional sense of the word, you are not ill unless you have a positive diagnostic test plus symtoms - I would say the majority of the 50k positive tests are asymptomatic. Heaven knows why decades of medical practice has been turned on its head this year. No risks of significiant asymptomatic transmission have been found in detailed studies since the beginning of the pandemic, so this is a fallacy based on initial reports from China at the start of the outbreak. Pre-symptomatic is evident, but again not in significant amounts.)

There is pressure from reduced staffing due to absence due to self isolation, but again this is the product of overtesting using an overly sensitive PCR. Many of these staff absences will be unnecessary. Edit: I think they are starting to transfer to LFT testing, with PCR confirmatory testing, which could help with this.

The upshot of all of this is that the country is in lockdown not for a virus but to relieve pressure on hospitals caused by poor management, exascerbated by a hyperbolic media and social media on a wave of over-testing using methods not fit for purpose. This sets the precedent that we should be locked down every winter the health services experiences this type of situation, which would be ridiculous, as it is just unworkable to do every year. So why this year? I just can't see the justification. And in the long run the lost jobs and economic activity, caused by this lockdown period, which lead to reduced NI receipts (from direct and indirect taxation) will harm the NHS more, meaning bluntly more people will die over the coming years. There is no way we will not enter another period of austerity after all this, and it's always the health service which is particularly sensitive to this.

Interesting graphs.

Do you have the same information available for the London and South East hospitals? I wonder if they tell a different story.

Even if beds are available, are there sufficient staff?

You seem very confident that the situation that at least appears to be causing trouble in London and the South East won’t soon be replicated in other areas. What makes you so sure?

As ever on these threads, I’m not a Locktivist/Maskivist/Facebook Karen, I’m just asking some honest questions.

For the avoidance of doubt too, I’m not arguing against what you have stated as the impact of lockdowns (the impact seems beyond reasonable doubt) or the reasons you give about a backlog (I’ve no information on that so can’t comment either way).

 

[kristiang85]

Interesting graphs.

Do you have the same information available for the London and South East hospitals? I wonder if they tell a different story.

Even if beds are available, are there sufficient staff?

You seem very confident that the situation that at least appears to be causing trouble in London and the South East won’t soon be replicated in other areas. What makes you so sure?

As ever on these threads, I’m not a Locktivist/Maskivist/Facebook Karen, I’m just asking some honest questions.

For the avoidance of doubt too, I’m not arguing against what you have stated as the impact of lockdowns (the impact seems beyond reasonable doubt) or the reasons you give about a backlog (I’ve no information on that so can’t comment either way).

Honest questions appreciated, as I am - as are we all - capable of missing nuances, other data and alternative conclusions

Well yes the staff situation is the issue, as without staff you can't fill the beds - this is my point about the PCR testing. But as I said, hopefully the move to LFT and confirmatory PCR should reduce staff absences somewhat. Let's see. Certainly the need to isolate for staff has caused havoc in the education system, and the NHS - from what I gather - has been no different. There is actually data on staff absence in the NHS too, which I've attached below. As you can see, it is completely in line with COVID positives.

I've attached the data as requested (I think this is what you wanted?). This only seems to be up to early December though - it will be interesting to see what happens when the full December data is released.

(I feel this conversation might be going off on a big tangent from the media, but then again this is around the lack of backup to what the media are saying re. reports of hospitals in crisis. However, mods please advise if you'd prefer a new thread of some sort on this).

 

[sjpowermac]

Honest questions appreciated, as I am - as are we all - capable of missing nuances, other data and alternative conclusions

Well yes the staff situation is the issue, as without staff you can't fill the beds - this is my point about the PCR testing. But as I said, hopefully the move to LFT and confirmatory PCR should reduce staff absences somewhat. Let's see. Certainly the need to isolate for staff has caused havoc in the education system, and the NHS - from what I gather - has been no different. There is actually data on staff absence in the NHS too, which I've attached below. As you can see, it is completely in line with COVID positives.

I've attached the data as requested (I think this is what you wanted?). This only seems to be up to early December though - it will be interesting to see what happens when the full December data is released.

(I feel this conversation might be going off on a big tangent from the media, but then again this is around the lack of backup to what the media are saying re. reports of hospitals in crisis. However, mods please advise if you'd prefer a new thread of some sort on this).

Many thanks indeed for the info on NHS staff abscence. I’m actually a bit surprised that it’s relatively low, but as you say, we don’t know yet for December.

It would be interesting to know the current figures for staffing/beds in the worst hit areas of London/SE. I agree with you that the media are not always big fans of stats.

 

[jtuk]

Interesting graphs.

Do you have the same information available for the London and South East hospitals? I wonder if they tell a different story.

Even if beds are available, are there sufficient staff?

Well, they could start by cutting the red tape to allow them to recall previous staff. The extent of the level of form filling and required documentation, most of which has no relevance to doing the actual job, is ridiculous

 

[sjpowermac]

Well, they could start by cutting the red tape to allow them to recall previous staff. The extent of the level of form filling and required documentation, most of which has no relevance to doing the actual job, is ridiculous

You are shouting at the wrong person there, I’m completely unconnected with the NHS...

Having previous staff is one thing, but do you know for sure they have the skills needed for the specific pinch points? Easy for us to say ‘get on with it’ but perhaps not quite so easy on the ground.

I’m not picking fault with what you’ve said, but maybe there are factors that neither of us are aware of.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Getting back to Media coverage, another sensationalist headline from Sky.

COVID-19: Eight-year-old dies with coronavirus as cases exceed 50,000 for fourth day running

Nightingale hospitals are being readied for use but the Royal College of Nursing has "real concerns" about a lack of staff.

news.sky.com

Tragic whilst this youngster’s death undoubtedly is, you only have to scroll down a short way to find that as suspected, like many others, this is another person with an existing condition who died with covid, not of covid. What is their agenda ???

 

[kez19]

Getting back to Media coverage, another sensationalist headline from Sky.

COVID-19: Eight-year-old dies with coronavirus as cases exceed 50,000 for fourth day running

Nightingale hospitals are being readied for use but the Royal College of Nursing has "real concerns" about a lack of staff.

news.sky.com

Tragic whilst this youngster’s death undoubtedly is, you only have to scroll down a short way to find that as suspected, like many others, this is another person with an existing condition who died with covid, not of covid. What is their agenda ???

Could it be its just COVID nothing else exists these days to the media? (sarcastic)

 

[kristiang85]

What is their agenda ???

It's Sky. A TV and broadband provider who have probably done quite well out of people being told to stay at home for the past year...

(man, I'm getting cynical)

 

[kez19]

It's Sky. A TV and broadband provider who have probably done quite well out of people being told to stay at home for the past year...

(man, I'm getting cynical)

Isn’t ironic as you say that you had the main ones with messages too, stay at home (channel 4), channel 5 and it’s stations the same etc.

Does this conform to the phrase all in this together? Surely not! (maybe it’s a phrase which some people are changing from that perspective)

Had the media took a balanced approach I guess we would think otherwise but it for me seems it’s gone a bit far of the sensationalised extent that it’s becoming diluted (hence media ramp it up - our lives are being played out like a reality show but on another level)

 

[Domh245]

Tragic whilst this youngster’s death undoubtedly is, you only have to scroll down a short way to find that as suspected, like many others, this is another person with an existing condition who died with covid, not of covid. What is their agenda ???

Don't mistake "underlying health condition" for "dying with covid" - indeed, if you've got an underlying health condition you are more likely to die of particularly if said health condition makes you clinically vulnerable.

Dying with Covid is where you are killed by something altogether different from covid, but because of the positive test you are required to still have this mentioned on the death certificate. It isn't clear whether this was the case here, as whilst they only talk about deaths with covid in the article, that would appear to just be as a result of the way the NHS is reporting the numbers. It is quite plausible that the child had some sort of health condition such as severe asthma that made them extremely susceptible to covid, and died as a result

 

[kez19]

Don't mistake "underlying health condition" for "dying with covid" - indeed, if you've got an underlying health condition you are more likely to die of particularly if said health condition makes you clinically vulnerable.

Dying with Covid is where you are killed by something altogether different from covid, but because of the positive test you are required to still have this mentioned on the death certificate. It isn't clear whether this was the case here, as whilst they only talk about deaths with covid in the article, that would appear to just be as a result of the way the NHS is reporting the numbers. It is quite plausible that the child had some sort of health condition such as severe asthma that made them extremely susceptible to covid, and died as a result

So why can’t these be reported as that?, than default COVID, I would expect something along the lines of was getting treatment for Cancer but had contracted COVID at... than just say person died of COVID, has the media and everything else forgotten of health conditions out there that existed pre-COVID? It’s a backward approach to reporting but I guess they all need the “clicks” and fear in it all

 

[Wychwood93]

So why can’t these be reported as that?, than default COVID, I would expect something along the lines of was getting treatment for Cancer but had contracted COVID at... than just say person died of COVID, has the media and everything else forgotten of health conditions out there that existed pre-COVID? It’s a backward approach to reporting but I guess they all need the “clicks” and fear in it all

I opined a similar query to a good friend of mine - he replied that it does, at least, provide a certain uniformity to the statistics. My reply was along the lines of expressing hope that, at some stage, assorted people will trawl back through all the death certificates etc. and give a balanced, robust and truthful breakdown of 'with' and 'of'. I have a feeling that by the time that happens most of us will have lost interest - a bit like the Williams report, Crossrail opening, Thameslink 2000 being a year or two (!!!) late, finishing the GWML electrification. You get the drift. With regard to Covid, I hope I do remember at some future date to take notice of the with/of outcome.

 

[jtuk]

You are shouting at the wrong person there, I’m completely unconnected with the NHS...

Having previous staff is one thing, but do you know for sure they have the skills needed for the specific pinch points? Easy for us to say ‘get on with it’ but perhaps not quite so easy on the ground.

I’m not picking fault with what you’ve said, but maybe there are factors that neither of us are aware of.

Not shouting at anyone. When you see the list of "required skills" including things such as anti-radicalisation training, you know they're not taking this seriously at all

 

[kez19]

I opined a similar query to a good friend of mine - he replied that it does, at least, provide a certain uniformity to the statistics. My reply was along the lines of expressing hope that, at some stage, assorted people will trawl back through all the death certificates etc. and give a balanced, robust and truthful breakdown of 'with' and 'of'. I have a feeling that by the time that happens most of us will have lost interest - a bit like the Williams report, Crossrail opening, Thameslink 2000 being a year or two (!!!) late, finishing the GWML electrification. You get the drift. With regard to Covid, I hope I do remember at some future date to take notice of the with/of outcome.

It was bad enough reading a few weeks back about the guy that fell from the ladder but still had the lines of... he had COVID (end of), it should have never been taken away no matter, we all have medical histories but to go in that one direction it’s wrong but I guess it helps the figures

Again I agree with you

 

[sjpowermac]

Not shouting at anyone. When you see the list of "required skills" including things such as anti-radicalisation training, you know they're not taking this seriously at all

I notice that you’ve avoided the question about any potential mismatch of skills between volunteers and actual requirements. I’m not medically qualified but can only imagine that working in an intensive care unit might require some very specific skill sets.

Regarding the anti-radicalisation training, I’ve done a version of that, complete waste of time but took less than an afternoon to complete.

I agree that in an emergency situation that particular piece of training most likely shouldn’t be a requirement but I hardly think it’s going to be a major constraint on numbers.

Reading this thread I do sometimes wonder if tin foil hats might be more appropriate than masks.

As always, not a Locktivist/Maskivist/Facebook Karen , just pointing out that I’m not an ICU doctor/manager and I don’t think you are either.

 

[Domh245]

So why can’t these be reported as that?, than default COVID, I would expect something along the lines of was getting treatment for Cancer but had contracted COVID at... than just say person died of COVID, has the media and everything else forgotten of health conditions out there that existed pre-COVID? It’s a backward approach to reporting but I guess they all need the “clicks” and fear in it all

I opined a similar query to a good friend of mine - he replied that it does, at least, provide a certain uniformity to the statistics. My reply was along the lines of expressing hope that, at some stage, assorted people will trawl back through all the death certificates etc. and give a balanced, robust and truthful breakdown of 'with' and 'of'. I have a feeling that by the time that happens most of us will have lost interest - a bit like the Williams report, Crossrail opening, Thameslink 2000 being a year or two (!!!) late, finishing the GWML electrification. You get the drift. With regard to Covid, I hope I do remember at some future date to take notice of the with/of outcome.

The data is there (or at least, can be calculated using released data) to determine the with/of - the problem is that it isn't very glamorous (the headline number isn't as high), but perhaps more relevantly requires actual journalism/ability rather than just regurgitating press releases and headline figures. The data to determine this takes a good couple of weeks to come through, and few people would be interested in how many people died with but not of covid 2 weeks ago

As of week ending 4th December (the last for which PHE have released the full data) around 7500 (11.2%) out of 67340 covid deaths in England (as registered by ONS) were 'withs'

 

[Darandio]

I notice that you’ve avoided the question about any potential mismatch of skills between volunteers and actual requirements. I’m not medically qualified but can only imagine that working in an intensive care unit might require some very specific skill sets.

Regarding the anti-radicalisation training, I’ve done a version of that, complete waste of time but took less than an afternoon to complete.

I agree that in an emergency situation that particular piece of training most likely shouldn’t be a requirement but I hardly think it’s going to be a major constraint on numbers.

Reading this thread I do sometimes wonder if tin foil hats might be more appropriate than masks.

As always, not a Locktivist/Maskivist/Facebook Karen , just pointing out that I’m not an ICU doctor/manager and I don’t think you are either.

But they don't just want people in ICU, they are actively seeking thousands to administer the vaccine.

So when you have a former doctor that ran her own practice for 30 years and has administered hundreds of thousands of vaccines and cannot get the gig because of red tape, there is a problem.

 

[sjpowermac]

But they don't just want people in ICU, they are actively seeking thousands to administer the vaccine.

So when you have a former doctor that ran her own practice for 30 years and has administered hundreds of thousands of vaccines and cannot get the gig because of red tape, there is a problem.

Source for your claim?

 

[brad465]

The Telegraph has an interesting section on its front page tomorrow where Prince Charles speaks about ensuring cancer doesn't become "the forgotten C", which I think is good, although wonder if others will see this as maybe him interfering too much in the response:

 

[Richard Scott]

The Telegraph has an interesting section on its front page tomorrow where Prince Charles speaks about ensuring cancer doesn't become "the forgotten C", which I think is good, although wonder if others will see this as maybe him interfering too much in the response:

View attachment 88036

And as regards the demand for school closures from teachers, I think that's probably a vocal minority too.

 

[yorksrob]

The Telegraph has an interesting section on its front page tomorrow where Prince Charles speaks about ensuring cancer doesn't become "the forgotten C", which I think is good, although wonder if others will see this as maybe him interfering too much in the response:

View attachment 88036

Prince Charles makes a valid point.

 

[Cowley]

Prince Charles makes a valid point.

Yes definitely.

 

[brad465]

Prince Charles makes a valid point.

Yes definitely.

I agree, the only concern I have which I mentioned before was if this is seen as too much of an interference into the overall response, it could gain a lot of criticism that maybe counterproductive to addressing this important issue.

 

[SS4]

The media have been giving undue influence to random people for years. They should never be covering stories where they speak to Joe Public about something - they shouldn't get family members of dead people on to eulogise about them.

I hope the coverage of this will make many people more aware of how much scaremongering and opinion is actually in the news and be persuaded to find out with more independent research from a variety of sources

 

[sjpowermac]

But they don't just want people in ICU, they are actively seeking thousands to administer the vaccine.

So when you have a former doctor that ran her own practice for 30 years and has administered hundreds of thousands of vaccines and cannot get the gig because of red tape, there is a problem.

So I say that I agree the prevent training shouldn’t be a requirement for volunteers but that it is unlikely to be a major constraint for filling gaps in intensive care units and then rather than dealing with that point you pop up and give a completely different example. Where is your logic in that?

Where have I said that I think prevent training should be a requirement for administering the vaccine? If I don’t think it should be necessary for an ICU, why do you suppose I agree with it for vaccines?

That said, I wonder what the actual figures are for how many people have been put off applying because of the requirement to do an online course, that if I remember correctly, took about four hours (I’ll readily admit that staying awake during those four hours wasn’t easy).

I absolutely agree that the red tape should be the minimum necessary whilst ensuring safety. But I’ve yet to see anyone produce evidence that red tape is a major factor in staffing ICUs.

Just out of interest, my original post in this thread was about a second wave, do you think there is one or is it just scaremongering?

It’s interesting to see how so many twist/turn/squirm when faced with their view in the summer that there wouldn’t be a second wave and that London had achieved herd immunity (apologies for the use of ‘banned’ terms but there wasn’t a ban on them in the summer!).

Yes definitely.

We can all make valid points about treatments that are not taking place or being diagnosed. Finding a solution is the clever bit. Fully agree though about funding, I suspect that’s something that is hitting many charities.

 

[kez19]

BBC World Service this morning documentary about making a vaccine at 4am (unsure of name)

On at moment Weekend but heard suggestion of vaccine passport and again eradicating Covid (sigh) unsure if any of this is on BBC Sounds?

 

[Darandio]

So I say that I agree the prevent training shouldn’t be a requirement for volunteers but that it is unlikely to be a major constraint for filling gaps in intensive care units and then rather than dealing with that point you pop up and give a completely different example. Where is your logic in that?

It's not a completely different example. You responded to someone about red tape preventing retired staff from returning to help out despite it being requested in general, you introduced the ICU caveat.

Where have I said that I think prevent training should be a requirement for administering the vaccine? If I don’t think it should be necessary for an ICU, why do you suppose I agree with it for vaccines?

Where have I said you have?

That said, I wonder what the actual figures are for how many people have been put off applying because of the requirement to do an online course, that if I remember correctly, took about four hours (I’ll readily admit that staying awake during those four hours wasn’t easy).

I absolutely agree that the red tape should be the minimum necessary whilst ensuring safety. But I’ve yet to see anyone produce evidence that red tape is a major factor in staffing ICUs.

The head of workforce supply and deployment for the NHS during the early stages of the pandemic was tasked with bringing in retired staff as requested. 40,000 applied of which 30,000 were eligible but only 5,000 were successfully given a position by the time he left in July. There are many stories out there from retired staff who couldn't come back to work simply because they were required to give pieces of evidence that they couldn't possibly provide by now being out of the profession, no mention of an online course. I'd say red tape is preventing them.

Just out of interest, my original post in this thread was about a second wave, do you think there is one or is it just scaremongering?

Have you directed this at the right person here? I haven't seen a post from you about the second wave let alone talked about one. Or is everyone else ignoring your constant baiting so you are hoping to reel someone else in?

It’s interesting to see how so many twist/turn/squirm when faced with their view in the summer that there wouldn’t be a second wave and that London had achieved herd immunity (apologies for the use of ‘banned’ terms but there wasn’t a ban on them in the summer!).

See last reply.