The USA, Gibraltar, Israel and Iceland will be among only eight countries on the Government’s “green” list for safe travel from May 17, according to modelling for the industry.
The analysis, based on the Government’s four “risk” criteria for travel, suggests the only other countries will be Ireland, Malta, and Australia and New Zealand - both of which are currently closed to foreign arrivals.
The research, by Robert Boyle, former strategy chief at BA and its owner IAG, confirms government indications that only a handful of “green” countries are likely to be approved for quarantine-free holidays when ministers plan to lift the ban on non-essential foreign travel on May 17.
Significantly, nearly all of Europe is either on the amber list, requiring home quarantine of 10 days, or even the red list, where arrivals have to hotel quarantine at a cost of £1,750 per person.
Countries that should be red based on the criteria are France, Turkey, Holland, Croatia, Sweden, Belgium and Luxembourg - but are unlikely to be classed as such for political and economic reasons.