Should restrictions be eased fully if Indian Variant case rates do not decline before June 21st?

[Nicholas Lewis]

Weve had a 10 fold increase in cases in our area over the last week and our case rate / 100k is highest its been since Mar so that is exponential in my book but when you delve into it we find that 85% are aged 10-14 and picked up through school testing i guess. Also over 60 rate is negligible and local hospital has had no admissions for last 8 days, has 1 covid patient and an ICU that hasn't had anybody in it with Covid since 30th April. 46% of local population has had two doses. So this for me shows that we are in a fundamentally different space now and i wish the epidemiologists and media would get back to the whole point of why we started vaccinating our population in the first place. It is doing what they forecasted and an uptick in cases was also forecast so currently it looks promising from my chair.

The problem we have is Boris made his useless statement that it mustn't be irreversible so he can hide behind that to save face and thats the risk here hes more worried for himself than the rest of us and half the population agree with him.

 

[Class 33]

Whoever those two people on here who voted "Impose new national restrictions", would you care to explain why you voted for this?

 

[yorksrob]

I think that Johnson will feel the need to show progress and undertake some sort of easing - even if not the whole one. His Government will be entirely blamed for any surge caused by this variant and they know it.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I think that Johnson will feel the need to show progress and undertake some sortvof easing - even if not the hole one. His Government will be entirely blamed for any surge caused by this variant and they know it.

Has the Leader of the Opposition given the Labour Party view on how matters should now proceed?

 

[Domh245]

Bearing in mind that the phase 4 reopening was never intended to be "remove all restrictions", I think it's safe to say we won't see everything dropped. I expect we'll see stage 4 largely as intended (by government - not necessarily the public) and on time which will leave some of the theatre around guidance and T&T still in place. Only place where we might see scaling back is the rolling back of restrictions on businesses - I'm expecting capacity limits to remain in place, as an example.

Step 4 - not before 21 June​

Social contact​

By Step 4 which will take place no earlier than 21 June, the government hopes to be in a position to remove all legal limits on social contact.

Business, activities and events​

We hope to reopen remaining premises, including nightclubs, and ease the restrictions on large events and performances that apply in Step 3. This will be subject to the results of a scientific Events Research Programme to test the outcome of certain pilot events through the spring and summer, where we will trial the use of testing and other techniques to cut the risk of infection. The same Events Research Programme will guide decisions on whether all limits can be removed on weddings and other life events.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Another new name popping out of the woodwork, who wants to be famous for 15 mins, best way of doing that is scare the population into locking all the doors and windows

New to those with little knowledge of senior people in the medical profession. Professor Ravindra Gupta holds the post of Professor of Clinical Microbiology at the Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Diseases at the University of Cambridge.

Time Magazine included him in their 100 most influential people in 2020.

 

[westv]

New to those with little knowledge of senior people in the medical profession. Professor Gupta holds the post of Professor of Clinical Microbiology at the Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Diseases at the University of Cambridge.

Time Magazine included him in their 100 most influential people in 2020.

Wasn't Donald Trump on that list too?

 

[Bald Rick]

Bearing in mind that the phase 4 reopening was never intended to be "remove all restrictions", I think it's safe to say we won't see everything dropped. I expect we'll see stage 4 largely as intended (by government - not necessarily the public) and on time which will leave some of the theatre around guidance and T&T still in place. Only place where we might see scaling back is the rolling back of restrictions on businesses - I'm expecting capacity limits to remain in place, as an example.

Exactly. It’s nailed on that some form of restriction / guidance remains in place beyond 21/6. It was never intended, or expected to be, a return to ‘normal’.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Wasn't Donald Trump on that list too?

The question is do any one this website accept the fact that Professor Ravindra Gupta has the required expertise to hold the post that he currently holds. Besides the current matter, he was involved in yet another field of work in a field that saw a worldwide spread of HIV infection amongst some people, but anyone interested in that can look it up for themselves.

 

[westv]

The question is do any one this website accept the fact that Professor Gupta has the required expertise to hold the post that he currently holds. Besides the current matter, he was involved in yet another field of work in a field that saw a worldwide spread of infection amongst some people, but anyone interested in that can look it up for themselves.

So quoting the fact he was in the Time Magazine top 100 was irrelevant then.

 

[yorksrob]

Has the Leader of the Opposition given the Labour Party view on how matters should now proceed?

I've no doubt he will do. I'm not sure I'll agree with it !

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

So quoting the fact he was in the Time Magazine top 100 was irrelevant then.

The Time Magazine 100 most influential people is sectionalised into politics, medicine, business, sport, etc. It is not just an all-in talent contest. So it was not irrelevant. He was in the medicine section that is looked by the magazine editorial panel who produce the list. Much as most people detest Trump on this website, it cannot be denied that he commanded a following of people especially in the southern states of the USA and that is why the maazine chose in include him.

 

[LAX54]

Exactly. It’s nailed on that some form of restriction / guidance remains in place beyond 21/6. It was never intended, or expected to be, a return to ‘normal’.

But many will read this...

Ahead of the final step, the Government will review of the measures put in place to limit the spread of the virus. Depending on the results of the review, the Government hopes to lift measures and return to as close to normal as possible:

• Lockdown will be lifted and all legal limits on social contact removed.
• Nightclubs would be expected to reopen, and restrictions on large events like weddings and performances would be lifted.

As all restrictions removed and back to 'normal'

 

[The Prisoner]

Two factors for me: 1) I've read that the average age of the infected is now 28. 2) look around you - social distancing is over.

It's bound to go up a but as things open up, but even with the new variant invited in and hugged at the door by BoJo cases are hardly flying up and hospitalisations are dropping slightly (albeit I appreciate there is a lag between new cases and hospitalisations).

I run a music festival with 11,000 attendees over three days and we are due to take place in August. If they add one day to the 21st June unlocking we are postponing.

 

[Freightmaster]

Whoever those two people on here who voted "Impose new national restrictions", would you care to explain why you voted for this?

Likewise for the 16 who want to keep mandatory mask wearing after June 21st - why on earth would anyone want that???!





MARK

 

[birchesgreen]

I'd rather they were cautious and if cases continue to rise then some measures like masks should be retained.

I do think its 50-50 whether we'll have another proper lockdown again in the Autumn to be honest.

Unpopular views here I'm sure.

 

[duncanp]

Bearing in mind that the phase 4 reopening was never intended to be "remove all restrictions"

This is part of the problem.

Ever since the roadmap was published in February, the press have dubbed 21st June "Freedom Day", when all restrictions will be removed, and this has become implanted in people's minds.

The government position has always been that they will wait until four weeks after the previous lockdown easing, so that they can have sufficient data to be able to make a judgement as to whether to proceed with the next step.

So unless the lines on the graphs on the dashboard really do shoot up in the next couple of weeks, I think there will be a major easing of restrictions on June 21st.

Possibly mandatory social distancing will be abolished, with advice to stay apart as much as is reasonably possible. Limits on indoor gatherings could be abolished or substantially eased as well.

Other restrictions such as masks in shops and on public transport, track & trace in pub may remain for a little while longer, whilst the government gathers data on the impact of the easing of restrictions on June 21st.

If the data is favourable, then we could see all remaining restrictions lifted five weeks after June 21st, which would be July 26th. Summer is by far the best time to remove restrictions, when respiratory viruses are naturally at a low prevalence.

This may not be what some people want to hear, but the easing of restrictions on June 21st will make life seem "almost" normal, and I also think that compliance and enforcement of the remaining restrictions will dwindle to almost nothing, so that the government removing them at the end of July will be them catching up with reality.

 

[yorksrob]

I do think its 50-50 whether we'll have another proper lockdown again in the Autumn to be honest.

If they did, would enough comply this time to have an effect, that's the question.

(I don't think I'll be surprising anyone when I say I think not).

 

[davews]

If Indian is Delta, what is Gamma?
This from the Spectator neatly summarises where we are with SAGE and their predictions....

 

[duncanp]

If they did, would enough comply this time to have an effect, that's the question.

(I don't think I'll be surprising anyone when I say I think not).

I think something would have t ogo badly wrong for there to be another lockdown in the autumn, and the only thing I can think of would be a new variant that is substantially more transmissible and against which the vaccines are completely ineffective.

You cannot rule this out, of course, but bear in mind that by the autumn, most adults will have had both doses of the vaccine, and the clinically vulnerable are likely to be given a booster dose.

Any restrictions that do happen in the autumn could well be voluntary, with people being advised to limit social contact as much as possible, without there being any statutory limit enforced by law.

 

[Class 33]

None of those SAGE scenarios in hospitals will happen. They either haven't got a clue, or are coming up with this scare mongering nonsense to scare us and keep restrictions. Look at that one where it says the numbers in hospital will be about 50,000 by now and rising to about 60,000 in July! Absolutely ridiculous.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

If Indian is Delta, what is Gamma?

Speaking as a Classics scholar in the late 1950/early 1960 period, I think that the use of the classic Greek alphabet is understandable as the WHO are trying to remove certain countries names from the stigma attached to the variants of the Covid-19 virus.

 

[Domh245]

Speaking as a Classics scholar in the late 1950/early 1960 period, I think that the use of the classic Greek alphabet is understandable as the WHO are trying to remove certain countries names from the stigma attached to the variants of the Covid-19 virus.

I'm just looking forward to the point when they run out of letters from the Greek alphabet, and inspired by Only Connect resort to Egyptian hieroglyphs!

 

[Smidster]

I'd rather they were cautious and if cases continue to rise then some measures like masks should be retained.

I do think its 50-50 whether we'll have another proper lockdown again in the Autumn to be honest.

Unpopular views here I'm sure.

I have tended to be on the more cautious side throughout but don't see any reason to be so pessimistic about the future.

Barring something unexpected, like a completely new variant which evades vaccines and is more serious, there is nothing to suggest that we would ever have a situation where this is significant strain on the health system or even frankly noticeable outbreaks

With that being said I could support an extension to the current rules of a few weeks just to bump the numbers up a little more (e.g. 3 weeks after all 18+ offered one dose and all 50+ offered two doses) but then make it much more about guidance rather than force of law.

In terms of other interventions I would be looking for solid evidence of impact.

 

[birchesgreen]

I have tended to be on the more cautious side throughout but don't see any reason to be so pessimistic about the future.

I've seen enough false dawns and lack the confidence in the British regime's ability not to make the same mistakes over and over again. I hope to be pleasantly surprised.

 

[nlogax]

None of those SAGE scenarios in hospitals will happen. They either haven't got a clue, or are coming up with this scare mongering nonsense to scare us and keep restrictions. Look at that one where it says the numbers in hospital will be about 50,000 by now and rising to about 60,000 in July! Absolutely ridiculous.

Worst case scenarios are part of the modelling process and they can't be avoided. Based upon what we're seeing right now, I'd assume the prediction with the autumn case peak to be most likely - one which I would hope is manageable by the NHS, and which would happen in the context of zero restrictions and a mostly double-vaccinated population.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I'm just looking forward to the point when they run out of letters from the Greek alphabet, and inspired by Only Connect resort to Egyptian hieroglyphs!

As a back-up to that, please see a certain part of my website signature, which carries two further options.

 

[Class 33]

Worst case scenarios are part of the modelling process and they can't be avoided. Based upon what we're seeing right now, I'd assume the prediction with the autumn case peak to be most likely - one which I would hope is manageable by the NHS, and which would happen in the context of zero restrictions and a mostly double-vaccinated population.

So hospital numbers reaching a peak of about 17,500 during Autumn? I really think that is highly highly unlikely. I'd be absolutely amazed if absolutely worst case scenario hospital numbers reach anywhere near even 5,000. By the autumn near enough all adults would have received both doses of the vaccine. We're not going to get huge numbers of people admitted to hospital again like before. In the meantime, hospital numbers are continuing to fall.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I disagree with all of the options.

Get rid of everything toot suite.

I admire your ability to combine Gallic and Gaelic in your final sentence.

It brought to mind part of the lyrics of a song from many years ago....
"Hennessey Tennessey, tootles the flute and the music is simply grand,
A credit to old Ireland is MacNamara's Band"

During this most interesting discussion, I have been mindful of the conspiracy theory that found favour amongst certain American minds, that Covid-19 was something that the Chinese Communist Party saw as a biological weapon to disrupt the economies of both India (a growing trade competitor) and the USA (when Trump was still in office). The Indian part of that theory has recently taken on a much more worrying aspect.

 

[philosopher]

Worst case scenarios are part of the modelling process and they can't be avoided. Based upon what we're seeing right now, I'd assume the prediction with the autumn case peak to be most likely - one which I would hope is manageable by the NHS, and which would happen in the context of zero restrictions and a mostly double-vaccinated population.

The worst cast scenarios always strike me as something that can only really occur in a mathematical model. In reality real life just has too many variables that mean these worst case scenarios will almost certainly not come to pass.