End of the "golden age" of road haulage could create opportunities for rail?

[Bald Rick]

Don’t believe the hype! And remember ‘Railnet’.

 

[squizzler]

I had to look up Railnet, I gather it was the Royal Mail's plans around the turn of the millennium. I would argue its abandonment was more symptomatic of the short sighted RM leadership and the contemporary Railtrack debacle than an inherent problem with the concept.

Also, I think it is hard to get caught up in hype when there is none. The lorry situation seems an ideal opportunity for Orion to plug their offering to what would no doubt be a very receptive public (everyone wants fewer lorries on their street and better air quality air, not everyone is an expert in the finer points of 'just in time' delivery services). I feel that Orion should market over the heads of their direct customers to the public, who would themselves apply consumer pressure in favour of businesses sending goods by rail.

 

[HSTEd]

I am somewhat more optimistic than Bald Rick, and believe it would be possible to build a railfreight system that could grab a large fraction of the current road freight market, and be competitive on day to day operating costs.

Unfortunately such a system would be enormously capital intensive to build, much more expensive than a comparable small scheme like HS2 and take years.

Ultimately I think eHighway, and maybe a rerig of guided busway technology for HGVs (to allow unmanned backhaul) is a far more sensible option.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I still remember the scars from working for Railfreight - well Speedllink Distribution all those years ago.

Good concept but way too late in delivery , the road offer was so competitive that it got some decent flows , but never really caught the real distribution business , - it either got seasonal flows (like Grain) , or awkward flows that road did not want. (Fish food from Norwich to Fort William and no back load) - there were no nice big flows from say North London to the North West of 2 or 3 trains a day. That went down the motorways. Consider also Freightliner in it's original domestic plan.

Yes - long time ago. but road will always innovate and move on.

Unless there is a massive change - (like say the DDR where everything over 40 miles had to go by rail in a planned economy) - I would not be too positive on a "golden age" - but would be delighted if I was proven wrong.

Partnerships for more domestic rail trunking , the Tesco train concept is excellent and there is probably something more to glean out of this type of operation.

Forget the Ed Burkhardt idea of a freight service down every branch line and some aspirational hopes at the time for the "rebirth" of the big 1950's yards !

 

[Meerkat]

Move them from where (exactly) to where (exactly)? And when?

Typically a ‘white van’ will do a couple of full rounds from the distribution hub a day, covering drops over a wide range of a town / City. How would this work using a train for part of the trip?

I assumed the concept would be to have fewer, rail linked, fulfilment centres. Then they send a train load of stuff to a spare city/town station platform where it is thrown in electric vans/bikes for delivery, ready sorted into ‘rounds’
It might be a struggle to do that for 24hr deliveries (maybe short notice deliveries need taxing specifically to reduce van trips….) and whether any decent operator would want the parcels out of their hands on the trains and station platforms is an important question. There would also be issues about railway inflexibility - line blockage…”sorry mate, get your vans off the platform, we’ve got to open up for the morning rush. Your train will have to come back tomorrow”

 

[HSTEd]

I assumed the concept would be to have fewer, rail linked, fulfilment centres. Then they send a train load of stuff to a spare city/town station platform where it is thrown in electric vans/bikes for delivery, ready sorted into ‘rounds’
It might be a struggle to do that for 24hr deliveries (maybe short notice deliveries need taxing specifically to reduce van trips….) and whether any decent operator would want the parcels out of their hands on the trains and station platforms is an important question. There would also be issues about railway inflexibility - line blockage…”sorry mate, get your vans off the platform, we’ve got to open up for the morning rush. Your train will have to come back tomorrow”

Well if we are going to for a high capital cost new build system, you could always just piggback the vans, already fueled, maintained and packed from the fullfillment centre, items already in the optimum delivery order.

Or if loading gauge is an issue, just have vans with smaller-than-ISO swap bodies and have them shipped.

Idea being to reduce handling of the items in transit.

 

[Meerkat]

Well if we are going to for a high capital cost new build system, you could always just piggback the vans, already fueled, maintained and packed from the fullfillment centre, items already in the optimum delivery order.

Or if loading gauge is an issue, just have vans with smaller-than-ISO swap bodies and have them shipped.

Idea being to reduce handling of the items in transit.

I think the idea is that it isn’t high capital cost new build.
Use an existing rail connected warehouse and existing platforms (overnight presumably), and cheaply converted trains.
Personally I‘m not convinced that the safety bods will be all that keen on random van/taxi/Nissan Micras caning it about station platforms, but if there are sidings with road access available a transfer tin shed, a portakabin or two and some tarmac, wouldn’t be hugely expensive.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I think the idea is that it isn’t high capital cost new build.
Use an existing rail connected warehouse and existing platforms (overnight presumably), and cheaply converted trains.
Personally I‘m not convinced that the safety bods will be all that keen on random van/taxi/Nissan Micras caning it about station platforms, but if there are sidings with road access available a transfer tin shed, a portakabin or two and some tarmac, wouldn’t be hugely expensive.

The trouble is , that any city sites (particularly in the LSE area) for a tin shed and some spare sidings have long gone for development of housing.

I am reminded , of not so long ago , there were well connected possible sites at Cricklewood for such freight use - in several decades of going up and down the Thameslnk route - there was some traffic once -a delivery of Scottish grown Xmas trees - about 3 wagons worth. With respect , try making a business case out of that potential.

 

[Dai Corner]

What time would these trains carrying the pre-sorted deliveries run?

If the consignees are to get their orders during the working day the trains would need to arrive at the transshipment station in the morning peak when there is little or no spare track or platform capacity.

Imagine a train stopped at a busy station for an hour while dozens of vans collect their load.

 

[Meerkat]

What time would these trains carrying the pre-sorted deliveries run?

If the consignees are to get their orders during the working day the trains would need to arrive at the transshipment station in the morning peak when there is little or no spare track or platform capacity.

Imagine a train stopped at a busy station for an hour while dozens of vans collect their load.

That is an issue, but business deliveries could go in over night, maybe a whole days if you have storage room for one trains worth. Don’t know if any terminal stations could spare a platform during off peak daytime for another run. i am not sure how the economics work if there is no backload. do the Royal Mail trains fo there and back each night?

The trouble is , that any city sites (particularly in the LSE area) for a tin shed and some spare sidings have long gone for development of housing.

You are obviously more likely to know but if you only need one line, no run round, and a long thin shed would it be impossible?

 

[zwk500]

You are obviously more likely to know but if you only need one line, no run round, and a long thin shed would it be impossible?

In London, yes. Because you also need the space to back vans up to the line (probably would need some kind of platform between the train and Van to avoid issues with 'introducing' the two together). Any site in London where you could have done that will have been snapped up for flats.

 

[Bald Rick]

I assumed the concept would be to have fewer, rail linked, fulfilment centres.

But... the fulfilment centres all exist. None are rail linked, and very few can be. Realistically, Amazon (and others) are not going to spend billions rebuilding their centres to locations on the railway.

Then they send a train load of stuff to a spare city/town station platform where it is thrown in electric vans/bikes for delivery, ready sorted into ‘rounds’

But... that’s not how these systems work. Take Amazon LTN2 at Hemel. Nowhere near a railway. Dispatches thousands of consignments each hour, going all over the local region, and nationally. There isn’t the space to store it - once picked, packed and labelled its in a van or lorry within minutes, and then off the site en route for delivery within a couple of hours.

Almost everything I receive from Amazon comes from LTN2 at Hemel or LTN1 at Ridgmont. In both cases, a 20-35 minute drive (to my area, with multi drops). Rail just can’t do that- it would make the system grossly inefficient. It won’t be too long before the Amazon vans are electric. Making them even more efficient.

I know this isn’t what some people want to hear, but it’s the way it is. In a functioning market, efficiency wins.

 

[GlitterUnicorn]

I thought Orion's idea sounded quite interesting - if plagued with buzzwords and cliché.

Speed matters in Logistics. Amazon's next day delivery was pretty revolutionary given that not so long ago ordering online was a slow and frustrating process. Instead of items arriving a week next Tuesday, you can now press a button and have whatever you need in your hand the next morning. To do that you need a pretty slick logistics chain, which is what Amazon have. So now as I write I can order a £0.55 Cadbury Twirl bar to my door for 10pm. This is honestly ridiculous and probably loses them money but that's not the point. Because you can get anything and everything, all of the time, people go to Amazon for the convenience.

Amazon achieve speed by stocking items in fulfilment centres very close to customers - if you live in Glasgow your next day delivery isn't that likely to come from Croydon because that's a 13+ hour drive for a lorry. If you're in London your item is even less likely to come from Dunfermline because delivering to the city centre in London is a headache. Where Orion's niche comes in is that they can move things a hell of a lot faster than a lorry, so you can get packages to their destination quickly over an extended distance, while presumably being cheaper than airfreight.

It's absolutely not a replacement for Amazon's neat logistics chain but it's a niche that people will (probably) pay for, and judging by the number of buzzwords on the website about the environment I'm guessing they're maybe fishing for subsidies too.

 

[The Ham]

In 2018 there were about 1 parcel per week per person, as such rail delivery of packages probably doesn't need to aim to serve major cities where there's likely to be depots anyway.

As such these sorts of services could act a little like the old RedStar system, however rather than taking up station space and requiring the station to be staffed they could unload several van loads of stuff at a local station for those vans to deliver.

Going to a station with buildings, but not staffed, chances are you've got a window (say 10 minutes) to unload several cages worth of deliveries to a strong room before needing to be out of the way of the next passenger train. Miss the next 4 stations and chances are you'll have another 10 minute window. Most supermarkets can unload a full HGV fairly quickly, the train had the advantage that you have several sites to access it at a time.

Now whilst somewhere could be (say) an hour from a depot, if there's enough deliveries, having your vans leave the depot, unload, be able to reload mid route and then come back to the depot could provide efficiencies.

Especially if, as an example, you could then offer a wider range of products with a faster delivery. For example if you could run a train during the day between two major towns/cities 4 hours drive apart with a number of food sized settlements along the way you could offer next day (or even same day) delivery of a wider range of products than you could hope to store locally without needing to have duplication of items which there may not lots of sales of.

Especially if both those places were near to ports, so each side only received certain products from their local ports and swapped a fairly small consignment of each.

With a few on route stops to top up vans (which could be from a range of delivery providers but without the need to have a lorry load each) and pick up products for onwards selling (again potentially in smaller volumes than would otherwise be viable).

It's not going to work everywhere and it's unlikely that it would work for those locations within 30 minutes of a depot. However, in 2018 at over 3 billion parcels per year (about 100/second and it's likely that it's gone up a lot since then) even being able to cater for a tiny fraction of that is going to be fairly significant numbers. (0.05% would be over 1.5 million).

The other thing to remember (which is often forgotten) is that there's a quite a few more people then there was, even in the 1990's, let alone in the 1960's and so something that didn't work before may not work just as there's now more demand. Having said that there's now people there far fewer of working age and so anything which allows more work to be done by fewer people is likely to be more viable than was the case in the past.

 

[A0]

To do that you need a pretty slick logistics chain, which is what Amazon have. So now as I write I can order a £0.55 Cadbury Twirl bar to my door for 10pm. This is honestly ridiculous and probably loses them money but that's not the point. Because you can get anything and everything, all of the time, people go to Amazon for the convenience.

Not quite true your example - to get same day delivery you either need to have subscribed to Prime (£79 / yr) or pay a premium delivery charge.

The supermarkets similarly have a minimum order value to keep these things profitable.

So whilst there are edge cases which on the face of it seem unprofitable, they probably aren't as unprofitable as you may think.

 

[Meerkat]

But... the fulfilment centres all exist. None are rail linked, and very few can be. Realistically, Amazon (and others) are not going to spend billions rebuilding their centres to locations on the railway.



But... that’s not how these systems work. Take Amazon LTN2 at Hemel. Nowhere near a railway. Dispatches thousands of consignments each hour, going all over the local region, and nationally. There isn’t the space to store it - once picked, packed and labelled its in a van or lorry within minutes, and then off the site en route for delivery within a couple of hours.

Almost everything I receive from Amazon comes from LTN2 at Hemel or LTN1 at Ridgmont. In both cases, a 20-35 minute drive (to my area, with multi drops). Rail just can’t do that- it would make the system grossly inefficient. It won’t be too long before the Amazon vans are electric. Making them even more efficient.

I know this isn’t what some people want to hear, but it’s the way it is. In a functioning market, efficiency wins.

Amazon is probably a lost cause (and also why fast delivery should be taxed….).
But the concept would be that LTN2 at Hemel wouldn’t exist - it’s work would be done as part of a bigger rail connected fulfilment centre which would send out a train to Hemel to offload direct into vans.
I’m not saying it would work for Hemel, or Amazon, or for Amazon style (unnecessary) immediate delivery, but it could work for someone

 

[Dai Corner]

Amazon is probably a lost cause (and also why fast delivery should be taxed….).
But the concept would be that LTN2 at Hemel wouldn’t exist - it’s work would be done as part of a bigger rail connected fulfilment centre which would send out a train to Hemel to offload direct into vans.
I’m not saying it would work for Hemel, or Amazon, or for Amazon style (unnecessary) immediate delivery, but it could work for someone

Why is 'fast delivery' a Bad Thing which should be taxed? What difference does it make to anybody else whether the stuff on the Amazon van driving around my town was ordered early this morning, yesterday or last week?

The van has probably done only a few hundred yards additional mileage to reach my house - maybe nothing at all if it was passing anyway. Me driving ten miles to a shop and back to buy the sane item is surely worse in terms of air pollution, use of natural resources, wear and tear on the roads and my time (if the trip was work related and I could otherwise have been productive)?

 

[HSTEd]

Why is 'fast delivery' a Bad Thing which should be taxed? What difference does it make to anybody else whether the stuff on the Amazon van driving around my town was ordered early this morning, yesterday or last week?

Fast delivery is problematic because it breaks the regular system of order pooling Amazon and others use to reduce the number of lorry miles that have to be driven.

If you have a fixed number of rounds per day then you can replace dozens of journeys to the shops with one van round trip, but fast delivery can only reach a smaller number of people - it has a business model more like takeaway pizza.

 

[Bald Rick]

But the concept would be that LTN2 at Hemel wouldn’t exist - it’s work would be done as part of a bigger rail connected fulfilment centre which would send out a train to Hemel to offload direct into vans.

But that would be less efficient. An extra transfer and extra trip (and extra mileage) for every consignment. More cost, and more energy used.

 

[Dai Corner]

Fast delivery is problematic because it breaks the regular system of order pooling Amazon and others use to reduce the number of lorry miles that have to be driven.

If you have a fixed number of rounds per day then you can replace dozens of journeys to the shops with one van round trip, but fast delivery can only reach a smaller number of people - it has a business model more like takeaway pizza.

One driver delivering 20 or 30 pizzas to ten customers sounds more efficient than those customers all driving to the pizza takeaway shop.

 

[HSTEd]

One driver delivering 20 or 30 pizzas to ten customers sounds more efficient than those customers all driving to the pizza takeaway shop.

But that's not what happens.

They do five or six deliveries, or less, not ten.

I've used Amazon Prime Now (now defunct apparently) repeatedly and they've never shown up in a van, its always someone in a hatcback with only a handful of orders inside.

 

[zwk500]

One driver delivering 20 or 30 pizzas to ten customers sounds more efficient than those customers all driving to the pizza takeaway shop.

Only if the driver waits to take the deliveries as one group, and the deliveries are distributed in a way that allows a more efficient route. If the driver has to deliver each Pizza as soon as it's ready then 10 journeys made by 1 driver is hardly any improvement on 1 journey made by 10 drivers.

But the concept would be that LTN2 at Hemel wouldn’t exist - it’s work would be done as part of a bigger rail connected fulfilment centre which would send out a train to Hemel to offload direct into vans.

How many passenger trains are you cancelling to get the slots to unload the train in the platform, and how many staff will you have at the station to lug everything from the island platform to the vans waiting in the car park? I'm guessing to make this viable we're not talking about a handful of parcels somebody riding on the train could lob over a fence...

 

[Dai Corner]

But that's not what happens.

They do five or six deliveries, or less, not ten.

I've used Amazon Prime Now (now defunct apparently) repeatedly and they've never shown up in a van, its always someone in a hatcback with only a handful of orders inside.

Same principle, surely? One journey instead of five, six or a handful.

 

[HSTEd]

Same principle, surely? One journey instead of five, six or a handful.

Except the alternative is not people going to the shop, realistically the alternative is person waiting a handful more hours for the next scheduled delivery rotation.

 

[Meerkat]

Why is 'fast delivery' a Bad Thing which should be taxed? What difference does it make to anybody else whether the stuff on the Amazon van driving around my town was ordered early this morning, yesterday or last week?

Isnt Amazon Prime a separate network of depots and vans/cars? And more trips.
At some points my neighbours were getting three or four separate Amazon deliveries a day, via chugging diesel van or bloke in a banger. That is not good for the environment or traffic levels.

But that would be less efficient. An extra transfer and extra trip (and extra mileage) for every consignment. More cost, and more energy used.

Fewer fulfilment centres would mean fewer consignment trips going into them. And fewer vans/bikes as they wouldn’t be shuttling to the out of town depot.

How many passenger trains are you cancelling to get the slots to unload the train in the platform, and how many staff will you have at the station to lug everything from the island platform to the vans waiting in the car park? I'm guessing to make this viable we're not talking about a handful of parcels somebody riding on the train could lob over a fence...

Plenty of stations have spare platforms during the night and middle of the day.
The stuff would be in some sort of trolley. You only need staff to get them off the train, the van drivers take them from there.

 

[Dai Corner]

Isnt Amazon Prime a separate network of depots and vans/cars? And more trips.
At some points my neighbours were getting three or four separate Amazon deliveries a day, via chugging diesel van or bloke in a banger. That is not good for the environment or traffic levels.

It sounds as though Amazon could consolidate their deliveries further then

How often do your neighbours nip out to the shops now they're open again?

 

[Meerkat]

It sounds as though Amazon could consolidate their deliveries further then

How often do your neighbours nip out to the shops now they're open again?

The system obviously works for them - traffic and pollution costs aren’t their problem.
Covid made no difference - they already seemed to have everything delivered

 

[Dr Hoo]

Fewer fulfilment centres would mean fewer consignment trips going into them. And fewer vans/bikes as they wouldn’t be shuttling to the out of town depot.

Plenty of stations have spare platforms during the night and middle of the day.
The stuff would be in some sort of trolley. You only need staff to get them off the train, the van drivers take them from there.

I am struggling to understand this. Fewer fulfilment centres ('hubs') implies longer delivery trips/circuits ('spokes'). There may well be staffing and other efficiencies from this but it doesn't intuitively seem to reduce road milage and driver requirement. Also seems to suggest larger vans and thus more highly qualified drivers.

I am also struggling to think of these 'spare' platforms during the day. From a local perspective Sheffield, Chesterfield, Manchester Piccadilly and Victoria and Leeds all seem to busy all of the time. A logistical solution that only works at places like Great Yarmouth, Plymouth (possibly) and Perth hardly sounds like a national strategy.

I also can't understand how you bridge the 'gap' between loading and unloading trains during the night to and from hoards of local delivery bikes/small electric vans and the actual daytime collections and deliveries whilst people are awake. One of the biggest issues with the driver shortage is unattractive shift work but the 'solutions' all seem to involve far more night work.

 

[Bald Rick]

Fewer fulfilment centres would mean fewer consignment trips going into them.

I’m afraid that’s not the case. It will be the same total quantity of ‘goods in’.

 

[Meerkat]

I am struggling to understand this. Fewer fulfilment centres ('hubs') implies longer delivery trips/circuits ('spokes'). There may well be staffing and other efficiencies from this but it doesn't intuitively seem to reduce road milage and driver requirement. Also seems to suggest larger vans and thus more highly qualified drivers.

The receiving point for the trains would replace the local fulfilment centre

I’m afraid that’s not the case. It will be the same total quantity of ‘goods in’.

Surely there are fewer lorry miles if a supplier delivers to one fulfilment centre rather than spreading that delivery across multiple Ones?