A link from a commuter town to the nearest city is absolutely about the city. How many people, of the 11,000 in Tavistock, do you think make journeys further afield than Plymouth every day? I would guess it is in the hundreds, at the very most. A station for Plympton would be far more valuable, yet there isn't a thread for that
Agreed - a line needs to be able to "wash its face" in terms of everyday passengers - like the people doing short/ simple/ boring journeys from a town like Tavistock to the nearest large city
Too many threads focus on either seasonal trade (especially the people who want to go to Whitby/ Dartmoor etc on their summer holidays) or the "diversionary resilience" (which might be a couple of weekends a year)
Looking at the six markets between the four places in Devon we're discussing (Exeter - Okehampton - Tavistock - Plymouth) it's clear that there's good demand from Exeter to Plymouth (busy dual carriageway, regular trains, the hourly Stagecoach "Falcon" etc) and good demand from Tavistock to Plymouth (four commercial buses per hour)
There's no public transport from Okehampton to Plymouth
There's a rambling bus every couple of hours connecting the villages between Okehampton and Tavistock
There's one bus a day from Tavistock to Exeter on what looks more like a "day tripper" service than anything else
Okehampton has roughly one bus an hour to Exeter, but irregular and with a variety of intermediate routes plus extension to Bude (so if the Okehampton - Exeter train kills off the bus service then that presumably kills off some of the services to Bude and to the villages between Bude and Exeter that the train won't touch)
Plympton has a ten minute main service into Plymouth (plus other services) and the population of Plympton is double the combined population of Tavistock and Okehampton
If we were looking logically at a railway that existed to serve actual passenger demands then we'd focus on places like Plympton and forget about places like Okehampton. However we are condemned to keep having the same argument over and over again about the same routes through empty countryside and the same fairly small settlements
Threads like this are very instructive on whether people are interested in genuinely solving actual problems or are just wanting to crowbar in your favourite long lost rural route as somehow being a priority for the twenty first century
Except that buses are slow, uncomfortable and get caught up in congestion.
The Forum seems full of seat-fetishists complaining that all modern trains have terrible seating and are uncomfortable (although if there were trains from Okehampton to Tavistock there's a good chance they'd be 1980s DMUs, possibly with 3+2 seating)
Meanwhile we've got modern buses with high specification like Stagecoach Gold (but a lot of people's idea of buses are still based on what they last used in the 1980s)
b) the fact that buses do/don't run isn't always a reliable indicator as to how useful a rail link is. If it were then we'd not be getting a line to Okehampton. Whilst it's useful, it's not incom uncommon to see rail performing better than buses
Heavy/Light Rail will generally perform better than buses on a corridor where all things are equal (comparable fares, good access to city centres etc)
The reason I keep bringing up bus services though is that the existing bus service is an indication of where people actually want to travel and whether there's a market for a future rail service
Alloa had a frequent service to Stirling for many years (before the train cut into the market) - the 60/62/63 were every ten minutes, the services from Dunfermline/ Falkirk to Stirling too
Ebbw Vale had good bus services to Cardiff (and Newport)
Galashiels had a half hourly coach into Edinburgh (and Gorebridge/ Dalkeith had a frequent service - obviously all of these have been cut back now that the trains are running, which has had a knock on effect on places like Hawick which have seen a reduction in their buses to Edinburgh even though they aren't served by the trains)
Levenmouth has good bus services to Kirkcaldy/ beyond, so will probably do well for heavy rail
Ashington/ Blyth have several bus services into central Newcastle so that line ought to sustain a train service
Portishead has good buses into central Bristol so looks a reasonable market for a re-opened line
However Bathgate only had an hourly-at-best service to Glasgow, AFAICR there were no commercial bus services from Bathgate to Airdrie and no commercial bus services from Airdrie to Edinburgh, so the underwhelming passenger numbers on the Airdrie - Bathgate route are understandable
Reston couldn't sustain much in the way of buses, which doesn't bode well
Colne has no buses to Leeds, despite the repeated suggestions that the people of Colne would all love to commute to Leeds each day in search of gainful employment
The bi-hourly service from Aberystwyth to Carmethen doesn't suggest to me that there are going to be loads of people who'd use a train between the towns (especially given the fact that the bus serves intermediate places that the any train wouldn't be able to penetrate)
Matlock and Bakewell seem to have more buses to Chesterfield and Sheffield than they do to Buxton (the through buses to Manchester didn't last)
If you can't get enough people travelling between A and B to make a minibus service commercially viable then the you're going to struggle to pay the much higher costs required for train drivers/ guards/ signalling and maintenance staff etc
It's obviously not an exact science but it's worth using as a bit of data for whether a line passes an initial "sniff test" (e.g. there was a thread recently where people were suggesting re-opening the line from Worksop - Dinnington - Maltby - Doncaster. Dinnington and Maltby are reasonable sized towns (positively megacities compared to Okehampton!), but the demand is into Rotherham/ Meadowhall/ Sheffield - that's where the bus routes take people to - a train linking them with Worksop/ Doncaster might "put the towns on the map" but it wouldn't be linking them to the places that are the main "destinations" from the towns so any campaign to re-open the lines seems more about the tokenistic obsession with re-opening lines for the sake of re-opening lines rather than trying to solve an actual problem
(I don't think that the re-opening to Okehampton is purely about the BCR btw)