Disruption to services - Storm Dudley & Storm Eunice

[bramling]

It's decidedly not that windy in Milton Keynes at the moment. Plenty of time yet, though; it's meant to peak here around lunchtime, though we are meant to have 61mph gusts now and, er, don't.

While I hope no serious damage is done and no lives are lost, I do in a way hope there is some "decent" wind at least to the point of inconveniencing people. Not because that's good, but because if it turns out to have been a well-intentioned cry of wolf, people may not heed the warnings next time, and that could cause deaths.

It’s already pretty nasty here in Hertfordshire, and the worst isn’t even close yet.

I have to say I’m surprised the London TOCs haven’t suspended at this point. It would seem almost certain many people who have travelled are going to get stranded later, which will essentially have been avoidable.

 

[DelayRepay]

That's a first ever Red Weather Warning for London and the South East. Storm still off Cork and has a long way to travel, seems to be a little slower getting here compared to even the 0600 forecasts.

It certainly seems the timing is not what we expected - I was expecting Armageddon this morning but so far just a bit of breeze and now the sun's out. All the news reporting that I've seen so far has been about preparing for the storm (e.g. cancelling trains and flights, businesses and schools closing etc) - not very much about the actual storm.

It’s already pretty nasty here in Hertfordshire, and the worst isn’t even close yet.

That's strange because like @Bletchleyite I'm in Milton Keynes, so not that far from you, and here it's fine. There were a few gusts of wind earlier but now the rain's stopped, the sun's come out and it's just breezy. I know it's not expected to hit us til later but I'm surprised it's so different here to where you are.

 

[Wivenswold]

Is there a decent site for following it?

This is good for the latest weather map, showing the storm's location. https://meteocentre.com/analysis/map-surface.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

I'd recommend doing what I've done (I've been into weather as long as I have trains, since 1975); have Radio 4, Sky News, Signal Map, Flight Radar, Raildar, Live Power maps, AA Roadwatch, Met Office Weather Warnings and several weather forums open all at once. Until the power goes, then I'm reading 1962 copies of Railway Observer and Railway Magazine.

 

[DarloRich]

That's strange because like @Bletchleyite I'm in Milton Keynes, so not that far from you, and here it's fine. There were a few gusts of wind earlier but now the rain's stopped, the sun's come out and it's just breezy. I know it's not expected to hit us til later but I'm surprised it's so different here to where you are.

Agree - very strange here now. Wind dropped, rain stopped and blue sky. Expect that not to last! ( things must be bad: the Marston Vale service and replacement buses are suspended :-0)

As an aside I happened to hear the shipping forecast this morning: Not sure you want to hear Storm10 or violent storm 11 at times very often! ( the scale only goes to 12 which is hurricane force)

PS - that was in the Thames shipping area not, say, Rockall or Biscay!

 

[infobleep]

Yes they can do (though subject to requirements to have a second person in a double set at certain TOC). To be fair crewing isn't really a major issue compared to the weather.

But they wouldn't want less necessary people on board in case the train broke down, unless these less necessary people were trained in dealing with an emergency that is.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I did not realise we had one that recently. Am i right in thinking "red warnings" are rare?

Yeah, certainly rare to get two within 3-4 months. The last before that was the 'Beast from the East' in 2018.

A BBC weatherman just said Met Office weather warnings started in 2011 and there have been 14 red ones since then.
So about 1 a year on average (often quite localised).

 

[Wivenswold]

Whilst I fully understand the need to be ultra cautious it is based on the horrendous weather forecasts given. If these forecasts are not very accurate (eg timings, areas affected or wind strengths achieved) then no doubt there will be a backlash against the industry.

Well it would be unwarranted backlash. Network Rail are not meteorologists, they take the best advice they can get, but weather forecasting is a complex science and sometimes the worst case doesn't happen. Anyway, I've checked the models, it looks very bad later for London and the south east, send complaints to me.

 

[Ken H]

This is good for the latest weather map, showing the storm's location. https://meteocentre.com/analysis/map-surface.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

I'd recommend doing what I've done (I've been into weather as long as I have trains, since 1975); have Radio 4, Sky News, Signal Map, Flight Radar, Raildar, Live Power maps, AA Roadwatch, Met Office Weather Warnings and several weather forums open all at once. Until the power goes, then I'm reading 1962 copies of Railway Observer and Railway Magazine.

Try https://www.greatweather.co.uk/. Is a site that lists links to many forecasts and charts.

 

[bramling]

Well it would be unwarranted backlash. Network Rail are not meteorologists, they take the best advice they can get, but weather forecasting is a complex science and sometimes the worst case doesn't happen. Anyway, I've checked the models, it looks very bad later for London and the south east, send complaints to me.

By the looks of it, any forecasting is based on what is now actually happening. So whilst we all hope the forecasts are an over-estimate, unfortunately it doesn’t seem to be looking that way. On the contrary, if anything.

No one should be starting any kind of journey, by rail or otherwise, unless they really need to.

 

[Horizon22]

It might depend on the TOC, but very often plans at this sort of notice won’t be touched by the planning department. Things this close to the wire have always been dealt with by control in the TOCs I’ve worked/work at in planning.

Yes this will be the way to do it. At such late notice it’s going to be on-the-fly camvaellations on top of the already stated emergency timetables. Trains sent into depots and terminated short as required.

 

[Peterthegreat]

Well it would be unwarranted backlash. Network Rail are not meteorologists, they take the best advice they can get, but weather forecasting is a complex science and sometimes the worst case doesn't happen. Anyway, I've checked the models, it looks very bad later for London and the south east, send complaints to me.

Indeed it would. However it doesn't mean there would not be a backlash however unwaranted. Whilst I hope the storm will not be as bad as forecast I suspect there will be massive criticism directed towards the Met Office if it isn't.

 

[infobleep]

Some of us have to get to work, including those of us who work on the railway!



Well yes, but those people are on notice that services may withdraw and no alternative transport provided, so it’s up to them if they want to take the risk.

South Wssterm Railway made no suspeific claim yesterday about services being withdrawn.

They are now asking people to

Please consider if your journey is entirely necessary

Find details of current incidents | National Rail

A portal into UK rail travel, including information on ticket purchase and promotions, train times and delays, and more.

www.nationalrail.co.uk

Still nothing on service withdrawal. I'm not going out though. I'd love to but best to stay safe.

 

[Wivenswold]

Indeed it would. However it doesn't mean there would not be a backlash however unwaranted. Whilst I hope the storm will not be as bad as forecast I suspect there will be massive criticism directed towards the Met Office if it isn't.

Luckily all of the other Meteorological organisations that offer services to companies are saying the same thing. The BBC's forecasts haven't been done by the Met Office for a few years now, so the blame will not all be on the Met Office this time.

 

[Bantamzen]

I don't know if this has been linked previously, but https://www.windy.com is a great site for seeing where the winds are, and is updated regularly.

 

[infobleep]

Just because it’s enacted via control doesn’t mean planning haven’t done much of the work in the background. Basic reduction plans should really be on the shelf in any case and just need tidying up for todays existing STP.

That can't be easy if you have reduced timetables that differ from the base timetables. Then there is the blockade south of Three Bridges, starting from this weekend, resulting in the rolling over of timetables from Christmas on Govia Thameslink Railway. I doubt they had emergency base timetables they could use.

 

[bramling]

Luckily all of the other Meteorological organisations that offer services to companies are saying the same thing. The BBC's forecasts haven't been done by the Met Office for a few years now, so the blame will not all be on the Met Office this time.

I’d say if anything the Met Office has held off on this one, in particular waiting until this morning to issue the red warning. A lot of people will have already headed to work, and that is going to cause a problem later even if this is at the lesser end of the predictions.

 

[87015]

That can't be easy if you have reduced timetables that differ from the base timetables. Then there is the blockade south of Three Bridges, starting from this weekend, resulting in the rolling over of timetables from Christmas on Govia Thameslink Railway. I doubt they had emergency base timetables they could use.

Other TOCs are available. Who said anything about easy, its a team effort. At least at some places only it seems.

 

[Peterthegreat]

Luckily all of the other Meteorological organisations that offer services to companies are saying the same thing. The BBC's forecasts haven't been done by the Met Office for a few years now, so the blame will not all be on the Met Office this time.

Agreed again. However the BBC forecast for Freshwater (as quoted yesterday) is still 115 mph in the next hour. The Met Office is forecasting 72mph - still horrendous but nowhere near as "frightening".

 

[Wivenswold]

Latest UKMO modelling is showing why they slapped a red warning on the South East, 85mph gusts possible around coasts.
Radio 5 weather expert is saying a "sting jet" situation a la 1987 and St. Jude's Storms is unlikely today, that's the first bit of good news I've heard.

 

[bleeder4]

A pleasant day in Worcester at the moment. Blue skies, quite warm. A bit breezy yes but not as strong as I was expecting. I don't think it would be strong enough to break an umbrella, for example. It's bin day as well and people's wheelie bins are all still standing upright. I was expecting rubbish to be strewn everywhere!

 

[TheEdge]

Latest UKMO modelling is showing why they slapped a red warning on the South East, 85mph gusts possible around coasts.
Radio 5 weather expert is saying a "sting jet" situation a la 1987 and St. Jude's Storms is unlikely today, that's the first bit of good news I've heard.

Looking at the Met Office page about sting jets it look like they are a very geographically small short term thing that really can't be accurately described until they've been and gone. Looks like their pre-conditions can be forecast but if one actually forms or not is something that is confirmed after the event.

 

[SCDR_WMR]

A pleasant day in Worcester at the moment. Blue skies, quite warm. A bit breezy yes but not as strong as I was expecting. I don't think it would be strong enough to break an umbrella, for example. It's bin day as well and people's wheelie bins are all still standing upright. I was expecting rubbish to be strewn everywhere!

Lets hope they get collected before 11am.

Weather is very changeable in Cheshire, rainbows/gusts/heavy rain in the last 15 minutes

 

[Wivenswold]

I recommend this site to see the latest wind observations (in KM)

Meteociel - Observations des rafales de vent en Royaume-Uni en temps réel

Données des rafales de vent en France et dans les pays limitrophes.

www.meteociel.fr

 

[TFN]

TfL just sent an email to advise customers to travel for essential reasons only.

 

[Horizon22]

Had an email from TfL regarding essential travel only.

Edit: beaten to it!

 

[Dave W]

Just took the rubbish out to the bin store here in North London - I'm in a bit of a valley so expecting not to bear the worst of it, but it's still a very stiff breeze. I moved my car a couple of spots along the car park as my allocated space is right under a tree which looks decidedly ropey.

Roadwork barriers on the Broadway have been systematically demolished...

 

[infobleep]

Other TOCs are available. Who said anything about easy, its a team effort. At least at some places only it seems.

There are but that one sprung to mind because of their issues post-Christmas, which is why I highlighted them.

 

[driverd]

I have to say I’m surprised the London TOCs haven’t suspended at this point. It would seem almost certain many people who have travelled are going to get stranded later, which will essentially have been avoidable.

But its not the job of a TOC to dictate how someone should or should not live their life.

Not everyone is a commuter - there will be plenty of one way journeys, allowing people home before the weather hits.

If someone choses to commute in the face of the weather warnings, that is their choice and their right - they just shouldn't be surprised later if it goes wrong - and honestly, most customers will sympathise if the weather forecast turns out accurate.

Trains will run the way they've run for years and no doubt people will deal with it the way they've done for years. Run a service until you can't; resume when you can.

 

[Islineclear3_1]

All very quiet on the weather front in SE London at present. Had a bit of rain earlier and mild wind, sun tried to poke through but cloud now starting to build up again

 

[mike57]

Is there a decent site for following it?

If you mean the storm xcweather.co.uk have hourly updates with wind speed weather temp and pressure. netweather.tv has good live weather radar which shows rainfall, and can help identify the things like the hook of cloud associated with a sting jet