Class 379 updates (all are OFF LEASE)

[Railperf]

Pair of 379s spotted going South from Cambridge through Whittlesford Parkway @ appx 11.00am

 

[43102EMR]

Pair of 379s spotted going South from Cambridge through Whittlesford Parkway @ appx 11.00am

Realtime Trains | 5V81 1044 Cambridge Sidings North to London Liverpool Street | 23/02/2022

Real-time train running information for 5V81 1044 departure from Cambridge Sidings North to London Liverpool Street on 23/02/2022. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

Guessing it was this?

 

[03_179]

379011

Location	Mileage	Arr	Dep	WTT ID	Position / others
Cambridge Siding			10:44	5V81	1 with 379002
Cambridge		10:52	11:00	5V81	1 with 379002
London Lvpool St	56	12:43	12:51	5V82	1 with 379002
Ilford EMUD	64	13:19

 

[Railperf]

Going off into store?

 

[Bald Rick]

Doesn't the lease on the 379s end within a fortnight?

Monday.

 

[Class 466]

I wonder where they will end up, pretty certain the long rumoured destination is now off the cards.

 

[Prestige15]

I wonder where they will end up, pretty certain the long rumoured destination is now off the cards.

My only prediction would be it could move to Great Northern to replace the 387's moving them to joing the rest of them with Southern, Can't think of anywhere else they can go to

 

[bramling]

My only prediction would be it could move to Great Northern to replace the 387's moving them to joing the rest of them with Southern, Can't think of anywhere else they can go to

I think the implication is there is some politics going on in respect of the 379 leasing costs, which have always been notoriously high.

The problem is that DFT & GTR are boxing themselves into a corner by keep ridding themselves of older (*) fleets and relying on low passenger numbers. 365s + 455s is already quite a significant number, more if same happens to the 313s. It seems a safe bet the leasing companies will scrap the old stock, so it won’t be too far down the line that it’s a choice between overcrowding, pruning off fringe routes (goodbye Milton Keynes and Gatwick Express?), having no choice but to lease the 379s, or buy new. None of this is great news for the passenger.

(* I say older with some degree of license, given that the 365s are only a very few years older than the oldest SN Electrostars)

 

[YSTrains]

Can we seriously rule out the possibility of scrap?

 

[physics34]

Can we seriously rule out the possibility of scrap?

Well the leasing company wouldnt have got their money back on their investment yet so im sure they will eventually compromise to an appropriate fee with GBR/DfT

 

[A0]

Can we seriously rule out the possibility of scrap?

Yes. Because they are standard units which are a little over 10 years old.

Apart from odd units being scrapped due to accident damage, I can't think of any standard class Multiple Unit which was withdrawn and scrapped with less than 20 years service.

 

[warwickshire]

Unless possibly scotrail maybe ??
But maybe

 

[bramling]

Yes. Because they are standard units which are a little over 10 years old.

Apart from odd units being scrapped due to accident damage, I can't think of any standard class Multiple Unit which was withdrawn and scrapped with less than 20 years service.

Jubilee Line 83 stock - 10-12 years. Though these were a bit of a flawed build from the start.

I’d tend to agree that eventually the leasing company will either drop the rates or offload the units onto someone else. But DFT possibly aren’t helping themselves by bloodbathing fleets right left and centre.

3 years down the line - “TSGN franchise has chronic overcrowding, only stock available is 379s” is entirely foreseeable.

 

[A0]

Jubilee Line 83 stock - 10-12 years. Though these were a bit of a flawed build from the start.

I’d tend to agree that eventually the leasing company will either drop the rates or offload the units onto someone else. But DFT possibly aren’t helping themselves by bloodbathing fleets right left and centre.

3 years down the line - “TSGN franchise has chronic overcrowding, only stock available is 379s” is entirely foreseeable.

I would say the Jubilee '83 were a bit like the 365s - the first of a "new generation" of units but what followed was sufficiently "different" to leave them as "non standard". The D78s, though they lasted longer, were the same.

 

[physics34]

Yes. Because they are standard units which are a little over 10 years old.

Apart from odd units being scrapped due to accident damage, I can't think of any standard class Multiple Unit which was withdrawn and scrapped with less than 20 years service.

Some late built EPB and HAPs just reached twenty years i believe, but got scrapped because of being infested with asbestos.

 

[bramling]

I would say the Jubilee '83 were a bit like the 365s - the first of a "new generation" of units but what followed was sufficiently "different" to leave them as "non standard". The D78s, though they lasted longer, were the same.

I would say the opposite applies to the 83 stock, last of the old generation. D stock was simply a desire to have one fleet for the four lines, they could very happily have lasted a lot longer. The D stock has much in common with the 73 stock, which is very much going strong and likely to manage 50 years (barring write-offs).

Having said all this, I tend to agree that the 379s are unlikely to be scrapped. But I wouldn’t say it’s as unthinkable as it might have been if we were having this conversation a decade ago. But if their owner did decide to dispose of them, presumably someone else would buy them either to use or lease. In reality I think it’s more likely, once everything else has been scrapped as seems likely to happen, the 379s will be in high demand, so if their owner is prepared to store them for a while they will still be able to attract high lease rates a couple of years down the line (and the taxpayer / fare payer gets shafted in consequence).

 

[A0]

I would say the opposite applies to the 83 stock, last of the old generation. D stock was simply a desire to have one fleet for the four lines, they could very happily have lasted a lot longer. The D stock has much in common with the 73 stock, which is very much going strong and likely to manage 50 years (barring write-offs).

Having said all this, I tend to agree that the 379s are unlikely to be scrapped. But I wouldn’t say it’s as unthinkable as it might have been if we were having this conversation a decade ago. But if their owner did decide to dispose of them, presumably someone else would buy them either to use or lease. In reality I think it’s more likely, once everything else has been scrapped as seems likely to happen, the 379s will be in high demand, so if their owner is prepared to store them for a while they will still be able to attract high lease rates a couple of years down the line (and the taxpayer / fare payer gets shafted in consequence).

Not really on the 83TS - the last of the "traditional" tube stock was really the 73TS for the Piccadilly line - still operating. The 83 sets had many faults and problems through trying new technology.

The 365s were reliable, but electrically non standard when compared to either what preceded them and what followed.

The 379s are Electrostars - all of which are much more standardised.

 

[Southern Dvr]

The 379s will go to GN.
Not much required in the way of traction training for the GN guys, the 379 and 387 are virtually identical.

The freed up Class 387, already with standard Southern interior you’ll notice, will come south to replace the ageing Class 455s bringing with them toilets for all and air-conditioning etc… A relatively easy win. Some driver training will be required, a simple cab conversion and course on the new AWS/TPWS system fitted to the units.

 

[JonathanH]

The 379s will go to GN.
Not much required in the way of traction training for the GN guys, the 379 and 387 are virtually identical.

The freed up Class 387, already with standard Southern interior you’ll notice, will come south to replace the ageing Class 455s bringing with them toilets for all and air-conditioning etc… A relatively easy win. Some driver training will be required, a simple cab conversion and course on the new AWS/TPWS system fitted to the units.

This thread suggests that the 455 withdrawal is happening without the 379 ->387 switch. If it is possible, you can see why the DfT / GTR would prefer this approach.

The 455 thread says that 377s are replacing 455s. No training needed.

No 379s need feature.

 

[Southern Dvr]

The 377s replacing the 455s come from Southeastern and service reductions. The 377/5s will then head to the coast once the 387s arrive south of the river.

 

[Magdalia]

I think the implication is there is some politics going on in respect of the 379 leasing costs, which have always been notoriously high.

Well the leasing company wouldnt have got their money back on their investment yet so im sure they will eventually compromise to an appropriate fee with GBR/DfT

Having said all this, I tend to agree that the 379s are unlikely to be scrapped. But I wouldn’t say it’s as unthinkable as it might have been if we were having this conversation a decade ago. But if their owner did decide to dispose of them, presumably someone else would buy them either to use or lease.

This is all about financial engineering, not railway operation.

Once the class 379s go off lease the owner will have no income but will have financing and storage costs. That will hit their bottom line.

They could reduce their leasing charges but that would probably still hit the bottom line. DfT are now effectively a monopsony for rolling stock: there are many sellers but only one buyer. Whoever owns the class 379s has to undercut a competitor to get a deal.

So the owner will be looking for the least unattractive deal to offload the assets, probably at a time when it suits them to take the loss for tax reasons. They will hope that some other leasing company can stitch together a finance deal that will be moneymaking but the best deal might be with that nice Mr Sims at Newport.

To use a football analogy, the class 379 owners have paid a big transfer fee and high wages for a star striker who isn't scoring any goals. Like any football club in a similar situation, they'll look to offload the asset instead of having them warming the bench.

 

[bramling]

This thread suggests that the 455 withdrawal is happening without the 379 ->387 switch. If it is possible, you can see why the DfT / GTR would prefer this approach.

The 455 thread says that 377s are replacing 455s. No training needed.

No 379s need feature.

It does give an element of leverage, in that if the 379 lease doesn’t drop then they can use retaining the 313s as a bargaining chip.

Not a great outcome for GN, with the 379s it gives them a handful of retained 387/1 plus whatever can be spared from the 387/2 fleet. Without them GN’s only 365 replacement would be 387/2s. Are the c2c 387s now spoken for with GWR?

Any increase in passenger numbers is going to cause a big problem.

 

[Southern Dvr]

It does give an element of leverage, in that if the 379 lease doesn’t drop then they can use retaining the 313s as a bargaining chip.

Not a great outcome for GN, with the 379s it gives them a handful of retained 387/1 plus whatever can be spared from the 387/2 fleet. Without them GN’s only 365 replacement would be 387/2s. Are the c2c 387s now spoken for with GWR?

Any increase in passenger numbers is going to cause a big problem.

No retaining of 313s. They’re done at end of year. The Class 377s that will replace them will not need conductors and this will mean the remaining conductors on the coast will transfer into the OBS grade, presumably with different contracts. But that’s a different topic.

I gather most if not all GN drivers are trained on 700s and so they can be used on GN services to make up the deficit in incoming 379s and outgoing 387s.

 

[bramling]

This is all about financial engineering, not railway operation.

Once the class 379s go off lease the owner will have no income but will have financing and storage costs. That will hit their bottom line.

They could reduce their leasing charges but that would probably still hit the bottom line. DfT are now effectively a monopsony for rolling stock: there are many sellers but only one buyer. Whoever owns the class 379s has to undercut a competitor to get a deal.

So the owner will be looking for the least unattractive deal to offload the assets, probably at a time when it suits them to take the loss for tax reasons. They will hope that some other leasing company can stitch together a finance deal that will be moneymaking but the best deal might be with that nice Mr Sims at Newport.

To use a football analogy, the class 379 owners have paid a big transfer fee and high wages for a star striker who isn't scoring any goals. Like any football club in a similar situation, they'll look to offload the asset instead of having them warming the bench.

I agree with all of the above. The only thing which changes it if all of a sudden the DFT needs units in a hurry. This is by no means impossible.

Presumably if it got to the point where sale to Mr Sims was likely, someone else would buy them at scrap value.

 

[Southern Dvr]

I agree with all of the above. The only thing which changes it if all of a sudden the DFT needs units in a hurry. This is by no means impossible.

Presumably if it got to the point where sale to Mr Sims was likely, someone else would buy them at scrap value.

ROG bought 360/2s at relatively close to scrap value. Nothing has really been done with them since.

As has been mentioned already, more Electrostar stock is needed as there aren’t enough Class 377s to replace both 455 & 313 fleets but both will be replaced.

 

[bramling]

No retaining of 313s. They’re done at end of year. The Class 377s that will replace them will not need conductors and this will mean the remaining conductors on the coast will transfer into the OBS grade, presumably with different contracts. But that’s a different topic.

I gather most if not all GN drivers are trained on 700s and so they can be used on GN services to make up the deficit in incoming 379s and outgoing 387s.

The last bit doesn’t bode well for Littlehampton, East Grinstead or some of the 700/0 Thameslink routes! 2x 700/0 can be freed up by keeping the current Saturday service on KX-Cambridge where 1tph reverses at Royston and only a short turnaround at the London end.

 

[Magdalia]

I agree with all of the above. The only thing which changes it if all of a sudden the DFT needs units in a hurry. This is by no means impossible.

Presumably if it got to the point where sale to Mr Sims was likely, someone else would buy them at scrap value.

Sadly, I suspect that DfT will be more willing to take a hit on overcrowding than to ask the Treasury for more money.

 

[bramling]

Sadly, I suspect that DfT will be more willing to take a hit on overcrowding than to ask the Treasury for more money.

Absolutely. Another mess left behind by the Covid response.

 

[Southern Dvr]

Southern Wimbledon Loop services, Guildford services and GWR’s Brighton services are all being culled. Stuff which runs on lines where there plentiful other duplicate services are in trouble yes. Thameslink to Grinstead, Littlehampton and Eastbourne are unlikely to last much longer.

 

[43096]

Sadly, I suspect that DfT will be more willing to take a hit on overcrowding than to ask the Treasury for more money.

Good. The Treasury shouldn't spend any more than it needs to on a railway that has an excessive cost base and that has taken a huge amount of subsidy in recent years. It's managed the impressive trick pre-pandemic of increasing customers and revenue whilst also requiring more subsidy. That is a sure sign of something being badly wrong.