Weather disruption Sunday 17th July and following few days

[Starmill]

The full text of the warning as of the time of this post is as follows:

Headline​

A hot spell is likely to develop from Sunday, likely peaking early next week, leading to widespread impacts on people and infrastructure.

What to expect​

• Population-wide adverse health effects are likely to be experienced, not limited to those most vulnerable to extreme heat, leading to potential serious illness or danger to life. Government advice is that 999 services should be used in emergencies only; seek advice from 111 if you need non-emergency health advice
• Substantial changes in working practices and daily routines likely to be required
• Significantly more people are likely to visit coastal areas, lakes and rivers leading to increased risk of water safety incidents
• Delays on roads and road closures are possible, along with delays and cancellations to rail and air travel, with potential for significant welfare issues for those who experience even moderate delays

---

Updated: 09:31 (UTC+1) on Wed 13 Jul 2022

Reason for update​

Extended into Tuesday, with emphasis on the peak of the hot spell shifted to Monday/Tuesday

Further details​

Temperatures will rise again this weekend, most likely peaking on Monday or Tuesday, then most probably declining thereafter. Latest evidence supports the idea of a trend towards a slightly later onset of high temperatures. Some exceptionally high temperatures are possible both by day and by night; the cumulative effects of very warm nights (particularly in urbanised areas) and hot days are likely to bring widespread impacts to people and infrastructure. Although most likely less exceptional, it should also be noted that very warm to hot conditions are also probable across the majority of the rest of the UK.

UK weather warnings

Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, wind, snow, ice, fog, thunderstorm, lightning and extreme heat.

www.metoffice.gov.uk

Disruption to other kinds of infrastructure is also quite likely. It's already been announced in some areas that salt spreaders are starting patrols to distribute sand onto road surfaces.

The Met Office are also warning anyone who is travelling to set off prepared.

 

[cuccir]

The high temperatures seem to be slipping a bit later - Sunday is now only forecast to reach 27 in London for the Met, 31 degrees on the BBC. Monday (34) and Tuesday (35) now forecast to be the hottest days. If those cooler temperatures stick for Sunday it may end up being outside of the weather warning period.

 

[Mojo]

The reason it's a problem in the UK and not e.g. Spain is that our welded rail is stressed for more typical UK temperatures and not the very high ones you get in countries that are hot for more than a week or so a year. Thus when it gets really hot it expands too much and buckles.

If climate change makes more of our summers really hot, we'll need to revisit that.

This is often quoted, but how does it work in places such as North Eastern USA, Beijing, and Korea, which have much higher temperature variation in the UK, with much hotter summers, and much colder winters?

 

[Wivenswold]

One of the more reliable weather models, GFS, has some stunning temperatures for Monday and Tuesday. 40oC widely through the midlands and up to the East Ridings.

The more conservative European model, ECF is still predicting 38oC for London on Monday and Tuesday, things only dip below 30oC on the coasts. Even Glasgow could see 30oC.

I think the Met Office warnings are spot on, our infrastructure, the nations health and nature of these isles are all about to be tested to the extreme. Monday night into Tuesday morning may see some places stay well above 20oC.


Our climate is f.........

 

[Snow1964]

One of the more reliable weather models, GFS, has some stunning temperatures for Monday and Tuesday. 40oC widely through the midlands and up to the East Ridings.

The more conservative European model, ECF is still predicting 38oC for London on Monday and Tuesday, things only dip below 30oC on the coasts. Even Glasgow could see 30oC.

I think the Met Office warnings are spot on, our infrastructure, the nations health and nature of these isles are all about to be tested to the extreme. Monday night into Tuesday morning may see some places stay well above 20oC.

….. and at least one depot with will send a train out with defective air conditioning on hottest day of the year, probably from same depot that is responsible for maintaining it’s brakes

somebody will now come along and say working air conditioning isn’t critical so doesn’t matter, even though will probably more ill (or dead) from heatstroke than bruised from a crash due to brake problems

Safety and avoiding damage to passengers is critical so let’s accept it is a modern UK summer, keep people cool, and not treat it like something that never happens, by wimping out of running a good service.

 

[800001]

Do not travel messages for Monday and Tuesday will start to be issued tomorrow for various ToCs following conference calls with Network Rail earlier today.

TOcs currently working on emergency timetables for Monday and Tuesday.

1200-2000 on both days are the times where some very serious speed restrictions will be implemented.

 

[Man_with_beard]

It is expected to now reach 40 degrees very nationwide on Monday and Tuesday. Night times not dropping below 30C in London and quite widely 27C. Humid levels are expected to be dreadful making nights awfully sticky and boiling hot.... I think the rail network should be putting out emergency speed restrictions and government advising people to work from home

 

[800001]

It is expected to now reach 40 degrees very nationwide on Monday and Tuesday. Night times not dropping below 30C in London and quite widely 27C. Humid levels are expected to be dreadful making nights awfully sticky and boiling hot.... I think the rail network should be putting out emergency speed restrictions and government advising people to work from home

See what I have wrote above your post.

 

[Man_with_beard]

Its looking very catastrophic, widespread 41/42C on Tuesday..UK temperature record certainly gone, Monday looking no different especially Monday night into Tuesday Morning as its not expected to drop below 27C. Expect widespread disruption and speed restrictions on sun/mon and tue. No idea why met office are still using Amber warnings, if this doesn't trigger a red warning then i don't know what will.

 

[175001]

My TOC has indicated that there will be a blanket restriction from Monday of 45/90 mph, whilst possibly dropping 30/60mph if it gets horrific.

I'm having to travel down south on Sunday for a flight on Monday from STN, so cross fingers I'll miss the worst of it.

 

[800001]

My TOC has indicated that there will be a blanket restriction from Monday of 45/90 mph, whilst possibly dropping 30/60mph if it gets horrific.

I'm having to travel down south on Sunday for a flight on Monday from STN, so cross fingers I'll miss the worst of it.

Same with my TOC, 45/90 but down to 20 at certain locations of no watchmen available at critical locations.

Sunday now seems as if will be normal timetable as the hotter weather has moved back a day now covering Monday and Tuesday, so it’s an ever changing weather front.

 

[londonmidland]

It's almost certain that there will be widespread disruption due to the extreme temperatures. I can already see OLE issues/wires sagging, track buckling and lineside fires being a cause of concern. Especially given how dry it has been.

 

[175001]

The Hadfield/Glossop looks to be running with diesels due to the fixed nature of the OLE equipment meaning that the lines will severely sag. There are worries too that the OLE will touch trains at Gorton because the trackbed was raised a few years back.

 

[Snow1964]

Just out of interest what action did the railways take on 29th July 1948

(29th July 1948 and 25th July 2019 are currently tied for hottest day on CET (central England temperature) at 25.2c, an average of day maximum and night minimum that goes back over 300 years

If the railways could manage 74 years ago, during a UK heatwave, then knowing what they did then, might help this time.

 

[Saint66]

Do not travel messages for Monday and Tuesday will start to be issued tomorrow for various ToCs following conference calls with Network Rail earlier today.

TOcs currently working on emergency timetables for Monday and Tuesday.

1200-2000 on both days are the times where some very serious speed restrictions will be implemented.

Sensible! I remember the very hot day in July 2019 causing a lot of issues and disruption on the network.

Two days of similar if not even hotter temperatures, and very warm overnight temperatures, will lead to a lot of problems I suspect.

 

[Wivenswold]

Just out of interest what action did the railways take on 29th July 1948

(29th July 1948 and 25th July 2019 are currently tied for hottest day on CET (central England temperature) at 25.2c, an average of day maximum and night minimum that goes back over 300 years

If the railways could manage 74 years ago, during a UK heatwave, then knowing what they did then, might help this time.

Two of the biggest issues with heat weren't so much of a problem back in 1948;
1 - Continuous welded track, no gaps for expanding track to move into, so it can buckle.
2 - Electric lines overhead, which can sag in the heat.

The only lesson learned from those times is that embankment fires are far rarer since the demise of steam engines and smoking on railway property. The 25th July 2019 was incredibly hot, 29th July 1948's CET was pretty hot but it was the record-breaking overnight minimums that bolstered that stat.

Two days of exceptionally hot weather, therefore it's best for your health that you don't travel.

Latest GFS output this evening has actually seen an increase in temperature across the Midlands to 42oC. Hopefully the ECM will verify, it's a few degrees cooler across the board.
Then we have some potentially violent thunderstorms on Wednesday. Time to chill and enjoy a bit of history, if you can.

 

[Bikeman78]

Is there much bullhead rail left?

I don't think there's much in the south east. Used to be lots between Dover and Ramsgate but that was 15 years ago. Still loads between Settle Junction and Carnforth.

 

[_toommm_]

Ironically I’ve just had a warning on my iPhone about extreme hot weather, with apparent ‘significant threat to life’:

Severe High Temperature Warning


Severity: Severe


Significant threat to life or property


Alert in Effect


From 12:59 (UTC), 11 July, until 22:59 (UTC), 19


July


Description


Information on update: Extended into Tuesday, with emphasis on the peak of the hot spell shifted to Monday/Tuesday. Temperatures will rise again this weekend, most likely peaking on Monday or Tuesday, then most probably declining thereafter. Latest evidence supports the idea of a trend towards a slightly later onset of high temperatures.


Some exceptionally high temperatures are possible both by day and by night; the cumulative effects of very warm nights (particularly in urbanised areas) and hot days are likely to bring widespread impacts to people and infrastructure.

 

[Falcon1200]

If the railways could manage 74 years ago, during a UK heatwave, then knowing what they did then, might help this time.

Except they couldn't manage 74 years ago; There was a derailment at Wath Road Junction on the 18th May 1948 caused by track distorted by heat; 8 people died. And, whereas today every incident can be instantly broadcast, back then there were no doubt scores of others not significant enough to be reported, or remembered.

Report on the Derailment which occurred on 18th May, 1948, near Wath Road Junction (London Midland Region, British Railways) :: The Railways Archive

Archive of UK railways documents

www.railwaysarchive.co.uk

 

[kristiang85]

Tuesday is now looking like the peak day. Even Manchester could see temps up to 40.

 

[DarloRich]

It is expected to now reach 40 degrees very nationwide on Monday and Tuesday. Night times not dropping below 30C in London and quite widely 27C. Humid levels are expected to be dreadful making nights awfully sticky and boiling hot.... I think the rail network should be putting out emergency speed restrictions and government advising people to work from home

I think if i worked in an air conditioned office ( which i dont!) I would GO to work on monday/Tuesday!

 

[kristiang85]

I think if i worked in an air conditioned office ( which i dont!) I would GO to work on monday/Tuesday!

That's my plan, assuming the trains are working!

 

[railfan99]

Are there many speed restrictions in place? Don't have any on my routes yet...

What restrictions are typically imposed?

In Victoria, Australia, usually between 1200 and 2000 only on days when the forecast maximum is 36 degrees or above, trains that normally operate at up to 160kmh (V/Line VLocity railcars: you might call these 'units') and locomotive -hauled trains (a declining number) that usually have a top speed of 115kmh are all restricted to 90kmh (obviously, some curves and line sections such as in Melbourne's suburbs can be lower irrespective of temperature).

It also operates by region: rarely is the whole state affected on the same day. Government-owned operator V/Line publishes 'heat timetables':

Extreme heat timetables

On hot days, some V/Line timetables change. Get extreme heat timetables here.

www.vline.com.au

 

[SynthD]

However immediately after installation (ie before stressing) and following any work that disturbs the ballast, and certain local conditions can reduce this stress free temperature - often considerably.

On major routes, let’s say mainlines to London, how much does this reduction happen? Is it measured, and deliberately accepted if it’s tolerable?

 

[175001]

No surprise that the Met Office have just upgraded the warnings to red on Monday and Tuesday

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think if i worked in an air conditioned office ( which i dont!) I would GO to work on monday/Tuesday!

I am more than tempted!

 

[chris11256]

I am more than tempted!

Same here, why sit at home in 35-40 degree heat when I can go into the office and have air conditioning.

 

[Bald Rick]

On major routes, let’s say mainlines to London, how much does this reduction happen? Is it measured, and deliberately accepted if it’s tolerable?

I’m not sure i understand the question. Could you give an example of what you mean, to help me answer ?

The factors applied that reduce the Critical Rail Temperature are immutable, and apply everywhere that they need to. They are all measured (by definition) and there is no tolerance for deviation away from the standard.

 

[SynthD]

I’m not sure i understand the question. Could you give an example of what you mean, to help me answer ?

The factors applied that reduce the Critical Rail Temperature are immutable, and apply everywhere that they need to. They are all measured (by definition) and there is no tolerance for deviation away from the standard.

I understood you to say there is a procedure for setting the stress free temperature, and various reasons why it can end up being different to that target temperature. How common is it for them to immediately know the stress free temperature is not what they were aiming for, or to learn later? If they were a few workers down does that make it more likely to not meet the target, could they be sent back if their managers know it was not met?

 

[Smidster]

Same here, why sit at home in 35-40 degree heat when I can go into the office and have air conditioning.

Because you have to get there and back and there is every possibility of things falling apart very quickly.