In that case I concede that that may be possible. I’m still sceptical that it will prove as popular a link in the network as a train though.
Could I guarantee it would. Well, I am no holder of a crystal ball but I think it offers a better whole transport offering to the people of Pendle. However, it needs to be balanced against the £90 million that would be saved to be spent on other transport improvements in Lancashire. Several other curves could be reintroduced with that £90 million (Halton for example), road improvements and other transport improvements.
Trains get refurbished cascaded and replaced. The Pacers will also be replaced when they are life expired. This will occur on the Colne route just like everywhere else that has Pacers. Unless you are expecting either a) All of the routes currently using Pacers to be axed when the fleet expires, or b) you expect the Colne - Blackpool service to be made a special case to have Pacers for ever and ever, this is a non argument.
We are years off a Pacer replacement fleet in the north. I have had to travel the Colne branch a number of times in recent years and having to lean against a cascade of water through a leaking window frame whilst watching water fall between the carriages. This shows how high the route is regarded by the local TOC, the region and the government. Yes, better management and new trains would help but the coaches and trams would be subject to local management that is locally accountable. The other benefit is that coaches have shorter lives, which means that they can move forward in terms of technology. They have the benefit of being easier to cascade too. Trains are much more difficult asset to keep upto date and meet passenger expectations with.
I must point out that railways also have diversionary routes and sometimes it’s the roads and motorways that freeze up in the cold (the M6 recently being an example). And just like the railway, whilst diversionary routes may be available South of Rose Grove, it doesn’t necessarily follow that the coach will be in a position to take one of them.
No transport mode is perfect from space travel to walking, but rail is much slower to kick in with alternatives. My option conveniently provides passengers with a range of options. If it all goes down the pan on any aspect of the route passengers can transfer to another mode. Good ticketing integration can make the coaches cheaper than the trains south of Rose Grove and allow coach passengers to upgrade cheaply to rail if they choose to.
Including direct trains - which is what you will be taking away from Colne - certainly for a traveller needing to go beyond Blackburn.
To Preston. Blackpool South is just a convenient tacking on of another service. It's a loss but I hope that the additional trains via Todmorden curve and same platform interchanges can make that interchange pain free.
I do apologise - I don’t set out to cause anyone emotional turmoil.
I am perplexed as to where you get a figure of £200 million from. I’ve not seen any professional costings for the route suggesting £200 million. In your own previous post you suggested that the link could not be achieved for “less than double the 60 million”, and of course, you’d spend half of that £120 million on your own project anyway. I’ve pointed out before, even if the full double track electric option isn’t adopted, there will be less expensive options, and whilst they may not be as cheap as yours, they would provide better short to middle distance connectivity .
Woops there was a slight slip of the keys there. I meant £60 to £200 million, which is what I would expect the range of options to cost above my project. I don't think they would provide provide better short to middle distance connectivity unless the full 4tph option was selected.
So would I. But then, I didn’t suggest in my previous posts that Keighley and Skipton passengers would travel via Colne to Manchester (unless the other route was blocked of course). If you read my post, you will find that I suggested that Keighley and Skipton passengers might use the route towards Bolton and also that Burnley and Colne passengers would benefit from improvements South to Manchester. That said, Colne residents would have a new diversionary route to Manchester if the line South was blocked.
Sorry.
The question is how many. This infrastructure will need to payback over time and I do wonder how much demand there is to get to Bolton, even if it could be created. We have around 80,000 in the upper Aire Valley and I struggle to see major demand for people to travel towards west Manchester.
Ah yes, all those mythical empty trains running about - so beloved of clueless transport ministers in London. I have to say, I travel around the North’s local services a lot, and I hardly ever find them empty. Our little two carriage affairs are usually very respectably loaded and often full. The emptiest trains tend to be commuter trains running in the opposite direction to the main flows - a phenomenon all over the country.
And let’s not forget - public buses coaches and trams also have quiet times when they will be lightly loadad, and yes, these vehicles may be lighter than train carriages (although not always by much according to the Light Rail Transit Association website:
http://www.lrta.org/Manchester/vehfact.html )
But then again, you are planning to run them more frequently.
I have also travelled around the North and I have found some routes to be better loaded than others and depending on the time. Train frequencies are very difficult to reduce and even reasonably loaded trains can run at a loss. Coaches have lower fixed costs meaning that even a particularly low filled bus can be turning a profit.
With regards to embedded carbon, lots of things have it. Coaches, trains, cars, buses, motorways, railways all do. The environmental case for rail comes from taking cars off of the road and not your trams, coaches and buses. I just don’t think that your system will be as effective at getting people out of their cars.
Look at the £60 to £200 million saved and put into projects with a better CBA and a better environmental case.