Is the Energy Crisis one big con?

[reddragon]

We read and hear a lot about the so called energy crisis, but is it real or manufactured?

Whilst I can understand the cost of gas going up as much as it has due to the Russian issue, the scale of oil price increases is more akin to hedging & profiteering than a supply / demand issue.

The there is electricity. We are being conned big time here. The cost of wind & solar remains ~2p/unit. The cost of hydro, stored & nuclear etc hasn't changed at all. Only the gas price has gone up. In some countries, lets pick Scotland, get their power from wind, solar, tidal & hydro plus some nuclear. Prices have not gone up at all yet there electric rates have. Why is this? Because electric prices are linked to Gas wholesale rates. Why?

The only reason for this can be the greed & power of the oil & gas industry demanding so thus making billions. Look, even our Prime Minister is an ex Shell executive, ministers profited from Gazprom shares and the Chancellor aided & abetted hedging!

Solutions are simple & easy.

1 - remove linkage of electric rates & gas wholesale prices. Use real costs so people see that renewables are cheap & fossil fuels cots a lot. Quicker win than some stupid price cap! Octopus Energy amongst others are pushing this.
2 - Windfall tax the energy companies as done in the EU & elsewhere, so why not the UK?
3 - Insulate homes & businesses, quick win as it is mostly the poor who will benefit due to their poorer housing quality.
4 - Fast track wind, solar, small hydro and storage - quick & easy. Reinstate grants withdrawn by the Tories.
5 - Accelerate to move away from oil & gas to renewables to enable energy independence.

Not options: -

1 - Coal - no private investors are interested as they cannot recover their investment due to long asset lives & need to recover over 25+ years. If we subsidised new capital, energy costs would be substantially higher. Also 3-5 years to implement at the earliest
2 - Nuclear - projects take 25 years to get into supply
3 - Biomass - err, comes from Russia & Ukraine so nope!
4 - Fracking - experts say the UK shale is not suited to profitable operation and anyway the gas will go onto world market.

In my opinion this crisis is being manufactured, but by who?

I have long switched to renewables which has protected me from this, even my electric supplier tells me that my rates are far too low to be affected by market capping!

What do you think?

 

[Puffing Devil]

1 - remove linkage of electric rates & gas wholesale prices. Use real costs so people see that renewables are cheap & fossil fuels cots a lot. Quicker win than some stupid price cap! Octopus Energy amongst others are pushing this.

50% of UK electricity is generated using gas, making it a little difficult to disconnect the two. Hence the rise in the cost per unit.

Electricity is traded in 30-minute blocks and your supplier buys a blend of supplies from all sources and sells on to you at a consolidated rate, which covers 24 hrs/day for months in advance. Some blocks will be less than the tariff, some blocks will be over. The aim of the game is to break even over time.

 

[JamesT]

Prices have meaning. Pricing at the marginal unit cost promotes efficiency (if you're cheaper than average you'll always get paid), and investment in cheaper generation as they know they'll make a profit. It also encourages limiting consumption if you know that using more is going to cost.

You could switch to a pricing system that pays generators what they individually bid, though I would expect this to make the energy market more complex. (And what's to stop the cheaper generators bidding high prices to make a profit?).

If you're limiting generators to 'real costs', where are the excess profits to windfall tax? As I understand the EU's plans only apply to profits going forward, not in the past.

So you propose to take away higher profits, but replace them with grants. What are the chances that will be cheaper overall?

The Con is your belief that you're only using renewables (assuming you're attached to the grid and getting power from it). The claims that Scotland is powered solely by low-carbon sources is wrong. Although over a year the output of these sources may roughly equal consumption, but that doesn't account for the variation between times when there's overproduction and energy is exported South, and other times when they're using dirty English electricity.

A dash for renewables without properly sorting out storage as you propose is pretty much exactly what we've been doing for the last two decades, and we can see where that's got us. In 2021 there was 14% less wind power produced than the previous year, despite capacity increasing 4%.

 

[Dai Corner]

I have long switched to renewables which has protected me from this, even my electric supplier tells me that my rates are far too low to be affected by market capping!

"100% renewable" tariffs are a con. You get exactly the same electricity as your neighbours on Dirty Energy's 'Don't Care Where It Comes From' tariff.


How would you feel about having a true 100% renewable tariff where you were disconnected if it was dark and the wind wasn't blowing (or was blowing too strongly for the turbines?). That's technically feasible with smart meters.

 

[reddragon]

50% of UK electricity is generated using gas, making it a little difficult to disconnect the two. Hence the rise in the cost per unit.

Electricity is traded in 30-minute blocks and your supplier buys a blend of supplies from all sources and sells on to you at a consolidated rate, which covers 24 hrs/day for months in advance. Some blocks will be less than the tariff, some blocks will be over. The aim of the game is to break even over time.

In 1990 we had around 75% coal & 25% nuclear / hydro
In 2010 we had around 75% gas/coal and 25% nuclear & renewables
In 2020 we reached 50% renewables, 15% nuclear & 35% gas/coal

This year gas / coal has ranged between 24% in February and 45% in August but with huge new offshore wind coming online from the North sea this month the gas content will drop
BUT
In Scotland / NE England little coal/gas is ever used but in the Midlands & South Wales high amounts are used

National Grid is currently reporting for the last year: -

https://grid.iamkate.com/ National Grid: Live Status

44.9% fossil fuels or 43% from Gas due to low wind in the last 12 months (Sep 21 - Sep 22) but as that 45% is the peak rate of 2022 so far, expect the average to be nearer 35% again this year. We get more wind later in the year.

 

[Snow1964]

50% of UK electricity is generated using gas, making it a little difficult to disconnect the two. Hence the rise in the cost per unit.

Electricity is traded in 30-minute blocks and your supplier buys a blend of supplies from all sources and sells on to you at a consolidated rate, which covers 24 hrs/day for months in advance. Some blocks will be less than the tariff, some blocks will be over. The aim of the game is to break even over time.

In blunt terms, gas is costing more as there is a shortage due to sanctions of Russian gas.

Secondly we have inter-connectors for electricity, so if neighbouring countries having same issues, they will buy our electricity. So need to pay more to buy some for UK usage.

The Ops hypothesis assumes UK produces and has sufficient gas, doesn’t buy or sell any abroad, and all our electricity is home produced and never imported/exported.

Just be grateful not in somewhere like Poland where people struggling to get alternatives like coal, and it has caused inflation to jump there to 17%

 

[reddragon]

"100% renewable" tariffs are a con. You get exactly the same electricity as your neighbours on Dirty Energy's 'Don't Care Where It Comes From' tariff.


How would you feel about having a true 100% renewable tariff where you were disconnected if it was dark and the wind wasn't blowing (or was blowing too strongly for the turbines?). That's technically feasible with smart meters.

There is some truth in what you say.

Some tariffs provide an energy mix based on a grid mix which has to be stated in your contract. Normal tariffs have a mix of fuels and those who hedged gas went bust.

Then there are renewable tariffs. At the bottom end suppliers buy notional renewable energy units, so it is true your power supply is as green as the grid mix.
The next step up is where a supplier buys the output of various wind / solar / hydro supplies, hedged for the length of your contract. This enable Octopus Go customers to get very low rates even today still well below market rates.
The next step up is where a supplier owns renewable assets able to cover peaks & troughs, selling any excess to those groups above. Ecotricity own 100% of their generation & supply.
At the top end you have customers who own their own renewable resource for supply. Solar PV or windmills etc.

Of course what comes out of you cable is subject to the energy mix provided but still your neighbour might be paying for the gas element and you the renewable element so theoretically you are buying the green bit dependant on your supply contract.

In my case 100% of my heating is from a guaranteed renewable source.
My electric for the house & car is over 50% from my own solar PV and the rest from my share in a Ripple windmill.
I also have time of use power usage so to use energy only when I have some free or CO2 free power available.

Not off grid but on CO2 free and very cheap energy.

The UK has the capability to move half the grid to this model today.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Oct 2022 ==

In blunt terms, gas is costing more as there is a shortage due to sanctions of Russian gas.

Secondly we have inter-connectors for electricity, so if neighbouring countries having same issues, they will buy our electricity. So need to pay more to buy some for UK usage.

The Ops hypothesis assumes UK produces and has sufficient gas, doesn’t buy or sell any abroad, and all our electricity is home produced and never imported/exported.

Just be grateful not in somewhere like Poland where people struggling to get alternatives like coal, and it has caused inflation to jump there to 17%

After years of importing electricity, we are now a net exporter helping out our neighbours.

 

[DelayRepay]

In my case 100% of my heating is from a guaranteed renewable source.
My electric for the house & car is over 50% from my own solar PV and the rest from my share in a Ripple windmill.
I also have time of use power usage so to use energy only when I have some free or CO2 free power available.

What happens if you want to put a light on when it's not sunny or windy? Do you also have battery storage at home?

 

[reddragon]

What happens if you want to put a light on when it's not sunny or windy? Do you also have battery storage at home?

Those periods are far rarer than you think, especially if you change time of use! I do not yet have a battery but I do have a battery option lined up and am about to order our 2nd EV which has V2L & V2G.

I do already plug the lights into my car during a power cut.

But back to my opening question. Do you think that the energy crisis is real or manufactured or greatly escalated beyond what it really is?

 

[DelayRepay]

Those periods are far rarer than you think, especially if you change time of use! I do not yet have a battery but I do have a battery option lined up and am about to order our 2nd EV which has V2L & V2G.

I do already plug the lights into my car during a power cut.

If my question came across as disbelieving you, it wasn't intended to. I would love to run a carbon neutral house, but I don't think it's possible yet hence me asking how you coped.

The other thing is, if everyone tried to use only renewable energy, the whole system would fall over because there isn't yet enough to go around.

But back to my opening question. Do you think that the energy crisis is real or manufactured or greatly escalated beyond what it really is?

I think there is an energy crisis, caused by high gas prices, but the root cause is mis-management of our energy infrastructure over many years.

I also think an element of the current crisis is manufactured by those who stand to gain from it, or who stand to lose most from future changes.

 

[reddragon]

If my question came across as disbelieving you, it wasn't intended to. I would love to run a carbon neutral house, but I don't think it's possible yet hence me asking how you coped.

The other thing is, if everyone tried to use only renewable energy, the whole system would fall over because there isn't yet enough to go around.

I could not say my house is 100% CO2 free because that isn't quite possible yet, but I am close.

What stops me from being 100%? Lack of renewable energy? No!, Lack of power during no wind / sun? No!

It is the simple lack of automated control & information to do so, and poor quality home appliances that use too much power & cannot be controlled, that's it.

My heating, EV charging and tariff enables this. I have a hob kettle that I can control the power of to be within my spare solar generation. The dryer is heat pump so low power & for winter / wet day use off solar or at night
The big ones like the dishwasher & washing machine are power peaking, uncontrollable and inefficient despite A+++ ratings, just poor design to meet a rating. Again the fridge is dumb, so solar / grid / DNO activation installed.

I need an AI control system that checks the weather, predicts grid CO2, can find clean times to operate, manages input & consumption of power, knows how & when to store energy. All possible, jut not available.


Today 25% of the UK could get guaranteed renewable power all the time ranging from 100% in Orkney to 5% in South Wales - East Midlands.
Over 50% get renewable power on average and with smart controls / time of use up to 50% could be CO2 free all year round.

It's not just generation but use too.

EVs with V2G help, Heat pumps do not (yet).

 

[Broucek]

Solutions are simple & easy.

Somehow I doubt this is true....

 

[reddragon]

Somehow I doubt this is true....

Maybe not in a country led by corrupt & incompetent leaders, but in well managed countries it is or has happened.

 

[Puffing Devil]

An easier solution to managing fluctuating demand is to move to Hydrogen to replace the existing Natural Gas. Hydrogen can be produced using renewable energy and transported using the existing grid - work is ongoing to test and prepare the gas grid. We can then continue to use the majority of our domestic gas appliances, even moving to a domestic combined heat/power boiler. This can be supplemented by wind and solar for domestic use, with the grid hydrogen providing the buffer for times of peak demand.

 

[Geezertronic]

Maybe not in a country led by corrupt & incompetent leaders, but in well managed countries it is or has happened.

Which countries are those out of interest?

 

[reddragon]

An easier solution to managing fluctuating demand is to move to Hydrogen to replace the existing Natural Gas. Hydrogen can be produced using renewable energy and transported using the existing grid - work is ongoing to test and prepare the gas grid. We can then continue to use the majority of our domestic gas appliances, even moving to a domestic combined heat/power boiler. This can be supplemented by wind and solar for domestic use, with the grid hydrogen providing the buffer for times of peak demand.

This is the worst and most ill informed answer that is possible. You have been conned by the Fossil industry here.

A huge amount of energy is required to convert water to Hydrogen, it is very inefficient with only a third of the electric energy is converted into gas energy. Other storage mediums convert 90%+ to electric or heat.

Hydrogen could ‘nearly double’ cost of heating a home compared with gas

Using hydrogen would add about 70% to home energy bills, according to a report by a renewable energy charity

www.theguardian.com

Ministers’ plans to pin the UK’s energy hopes on hydrogen could nearly double the cost of heating a home by the end of the decade compared with natural gas, research has shown.

Who is going to fund the cost of replacing all the pipes & appliances in homes to switch to hydrogen because no they cannot use existing assets. All that is possible is a local industrial network for certain industries that are harder to electrify, then only in the medium term, too little to get a return on the investment. Hydrogen is very difficult to contain within a pipe and is much more dangerous to use than methane. BOOM!

Hydrogen is also a very inefficient of creating electric for the grid or in a vehicle, which is why EVs dominate and only Toyota still make a hydrogen car, they cost too much and are worse than an EV despite billions being spent on development.

.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Oct 2022 ==

Which countries are those out of interest?

Live 24/7 CO₂ emissions of electricity consumption

Electricity Maps is a live 24/7 visualization of where your electricity comes from and how much CO2 was emitted to produce it.

app.electricitymaps.com

Climate Impact by Area
Ranked by carbon intensity of electricity consumed (gCO₂eq/kWh)

 

[Lost property]

Those periods are far rarer than you think, especially if you change time of use! I do not yet have a battery but I do have a battery option lined up and am about to order our 2nd EV which has V2L & V2G.

I do already plug the lights into my car during a power cut.

But back to my opening question. Do you think that the energy crisis is real or manufactured or greatly escalated beyond what it really is?

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but, the energy crisis very real and far from being escalated. In fact, I would say, that, whilst it has justifiably received prominence, if anything, the gravity is being carefully understated to avoid mass panic and civil unrest, at least here in the UK should the full potentially lethal effects become known.

This isn't being dystopian, simply recognisant of the fact heating / cooking and energy costs are rising to the extent they will become impossible for millions as basic essentials for survival

 

[Puffing Devil]

This is the worst and most ill informed answer that is possible. You have been conned by the Fossil industry here.

The MCS report you cite via the Grauniad article is unreliable and is cherry picking figures to support its outcome



Which rejects the current high price of gas and uses historic rates to build a case.

The further point is that hydrogen does not become the single source of power. As I said, we use solar and possibly wind domestically and utilise Hydrogen where there is a shortfall of supply. We need a mix of power sources and conversion of electricity to hydrogen is a sensible way to bank that power, rather than batteries with their bulk, expense and reliance on less than green construction.

Hydrogen cars may be viable in the future once there is an infrastructure. In the meantime, EVs powered by domestic PV panels, supplemented by grid power are the best solution.

Edit: Typos!

 

[najaB]

But back to my opening question. Do you think that the energy crisis is real or manufactured or greatly escalated beyond what it really is?

Yes, there is an energy crisis. Largely caused by the fact that we generate too much of our electricity using gas and have way too little gas storage. So when wholesale prices go up, our prices go up.

 

[reddragon]

Yes, there is an energy crisis. Largely caused by the fact that we generate too much of our electricity using gas and have way too little gas storage. So when wholesale prices go up, our prices go up.

This is right now in Scotland, it is typical of Scottish Generation. Only that tiny 5% of gas is costing more, the rest is the same.

South Scotland Generation Mix for electric

So why are you in Scotland linking your electric bills to the wholesale price of gas, a minor generator for Scotland?

Is this not a crisis created that doesn't exist?

 

[GS250]

Reddragon I think you are absolutely correct to question this.

My girlfriend in Skye is absolutely 'fizzing' about her energy bills. Given that theres apparently loads of localish renewable energy about here yet they aren't getting the benefits from it!!

 

[Cloud Strife]

Just be grateful not in somewhere like Poland where people struggling to get alternatives like coal, and it has caused inflation to jump there to 17%

Indeed, the situation here is nothing short of pathetic. Essentially, the Polish government started importing coal on a massive scale from "Russia" (in reality, probably the Donbas) after they were elected in 2015, which was a kind of hidden subsidy to their voters who use coal far more than other voters. Now that coal imports have been banned from Russia, they simply don't have any other source of coal for domestic heating purposes, and this was after some very dubious decisions such as closing down and filling in a coal mine rather than selling it to foreign investors.

End result? The cheapest coal near me is available for 3400PLN a tonne, or around 620GBP. Many people with newer furnaces are using pellets, which cost even more. A typical household will use around 5 tons a year of coal in different varieties, meaning that they need to find around 15000PLN this heating season. The average pension for a man is around 2500PLN/net per month, and perhaps 1800PLN for women.

The price last winter was around 1/3rd of that.

If we have a harsh winter, people are going to freeze.

 

[reddragon]

Reddragon I think you are absolutely correct to question this.

My girlfriend in Skye is absolutely 'fizzing' about her energy bills. Given that theres apparently loads of localish renewable energy about here yet they aren't getting the benefits from it!!

Yes in Tory marginal England those windmills are considered eyesores & residents must be compensated!

Imagine living in Orkney where you generate 200% of your energy demands for 2p/unit but have to pay gas prices! They should refuse to pay their bills.

This is what a manufactured crisis looks like!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Oct 2022 ==

Indeed, the situation here is nothing short of pathetic. Essentially, the Polish government started importing coal on a massive scale from "Russia" (in reality, probably the Donbas) after they were elected in 2015, which was a kind of hidden subsidy to their voters who use coal far more than other voters. Now that coal imports have been banned from Russia, they simply don't have any other source of coal for domestic heating purposes, and this was after some very dubious decisions such as closing down and filling in a coal mine rather than selling it to foreign investors.

End result? The cheapest coal near me is available for 3400PLN a tonne, or around 620GBP. Many people with newer furnaces are using pellets, which cost even more. A typical household will use around 5 tons a year of coal in different varieties, meaning that they need to find around 15000PLN this heating season. The average pension for a man is around 2500PLN/net per month, and perhaps 1800PLN for women.

The price last winter was around 1/3rd of that.

If we have a harsh winter, people are going to freeze.

It was only last year that the EU wanted to classify gas as 'Green', 'sustainable' & 'secure' led by Poland, Germany, Italy etc.

Wood pellets here were £200-250 per 1t pallet for years, now they are passing £700 per tonne, triple the cost yet Drax still gets it's pellets from it's own forests in Canada at no extra cost. Still charge us 'market' rates though despite £billions in subsidies!

 

[Dai Corner]

Imagine living in Orkney where you generate 200% of your energy demands for 2p/unit but have to pay gas prices! They should refuse to pay their bills.

This is what a manufactured crisis looks like

That's the problem with having a National Grid, making Great Britain one single market for electricity. Perhaps they should dismantle it?

 

[reddragon]

That's the problem with having a National Grid, making Great Britain one single market for electricity. Perhaps they should dismantle it?

Not dismantle but make fairer. Why should rural Scotland subsidise the rich SE of England or conversely poorer Portugal (with it's wind & solar) subsidise richer Germany (with it's gas & coal).

A better mechanism not ruled by Gas is very urgently needed.

 

[BRX]

This is right now in Scotland, it is typical of Scottish Generation. Only that tiny 5% of gas is costing more, the rest is the same.

View attachment 121633


So why are you in Scotland linking your electric bills to the wholesale price of gas, a minor generator for Scotland?

Is this not a crisis created that doesn't exist?

You seem to be ignoring the effects of supply & demand. None of it really "costs" any more to extract or generate.

Wind power doesn't cost significantly more to generate just now than it did 2 years ago.

Gas doesn't cost significantly more to extract just now than it did 2 years ago.

What's gone up is the price to buy it - because of the limited supply. If someone really needs some energy, and there's a shortage of gas-derived energy then they are going to look to other sources including renewables. The demand for renewables will have gone up just like the demand for gas has. Hence the price of both goes up.

 

[Dai Corner]

Not dismantle but make fairer. Why should rural Scotland subsidise the rich SE of England or conversely poorer Portugal (with it's wind & solar) subsidise richer Germany (with it's gas & coal).

A better mechanism not ruled by Gas is very urgently needed.

What could be fairer than everyone paying the same price?

Wealth redistribution (to whatever extent the Government of the day sees fit) is better done through the tax and benefits system.

 

[reddragon]

You seem to be ignoring the effects of supply & demand. None of it really "costs" any more to extract or generate.

Wind power doesn't cost significantly more to generate just now than it did 2 years ago.

Gas doesn't cost significantly more to extract just now than it did 2 years ago.

What's gone up is the price to buy it - because of the limited supply. If someone really needs some energy, and there's a shortage of gas-derived energy then they are going to look to other sources including renewables. The demand for renewables will have gone up just like the demand for gas has. Hence the price of both goes up.

You have just justified nationalisation & that privatisation works against consumers in this case.

Very much private investors always win & consumers loose?

 

[DelayRepay]

You have just justified nationalisation & that privatisation works against consumers in this case.

Very much private investors always win & consumers loose?

I actually think that privatising our energy supplies was a mistake. I am not generally a fan of nationalisation, but in the case of critical services such as energy and water I think there's a strong argument. The current energy situation demonstrates this.

We could, over the years, have invested in building a sustainable and secure energy supply chain, using our country's resources (wind in Scotland, sunshine in the South of England, as well as making use of our North Sea oil and gas, and nuclear). And now the state would own it all and set prices so would not have to borrow billions of pounds to subsidise bills, which some customers still cannot afford. We wouldn't be completely isolated from international markets, but we would be much less dependent on them.

 

[JamesT]

This is right now in Scotland, it is typical of Scottish Generation. Only that tiny 5% of gas is costing more, the rest is the same.

View attachment 121633


So why are you in Scotland linking your electric bills to the wholesale price of gas, a minor generator for Scotland?

Is this not a crisis created that doesn't exist?

Is that what's supplying the South of Scotland, or what's generating there? i.e. is it taking account of what's coming from other regions?