The initial through timetable is huge inefficient with extra padding in the core tunnelled area and huge amount of padding west of Paddington hence the short term unit requirement is very high.As the through timetable in 10 days is only 22 tph rather than the full 24tph, there should be a few spare trains initially.
Also it is normal practice to size a fleet with maintenance spares, and as none have yet gone off for heavy maintenance / refurbishment the allowance for those would also be usable at current time.
Therefore having 2 or 3 out of service for lengthening prior to full timetable in May 2023 should not require 3 class 315 diagrams.
If cannot manage without the 315s now, how will a 9% frequency increase and refurbishment float be covered in the future?
Long term the trains running west of Paddington will have a cycle time of ~15minutes less per out and back cycle from Abbey Wood.
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