Russia invades Ukraine

[brad465]

"Vodka drinking retreating monkeys"

 

[Lost property]

EU membership for Ukraine is going to be challenging for a few reasons. The huge grain production would break the current subsidy arrangements in the Common Agricultural Policy, and Ukraine's large population would put them over the self-imposed limit of 751 MEPs.

Of course accession to the EU takes decades anyway, so change on the EU side can happen concurrently with Ukraine harmonisation, but we don't know which nations will be negatively impacted by Ukraine's entry or how yet.

Those are fair and valid points, but, given the circumstances, possibly the word "compromise " may have a relevance as time progresses.

 

[Pete_uk]

I'm lost for words.

The mighty red army, eh?

 

[simonw]

I'm lost for words.

The mighty red army, eh?

Don't think it's been the red army since the early 1990s. Although a lot of their equipment seems to date from around that time.

 

[Cloud Strife]

but if (when) Putin goes he’ll almost certainly soon follow.

The thing with Lukashenko was that for many years, he wasn't actually unpopular among Belarusians. They avoided most of the problems that affected other former Soviet states, and for example: Belarus never had problems with corrupt traffic police. On the other hand, the Ukrainian traffic police were unbelievably corrupt up until a few years ago, to the point where it was common knowledge not to drive a car on PL plates on the main roads to Lviv because you would almost certainly be stopped by police looking for a bribe.

EU membership for Ukraine is going to be challenging for a few reasons. The huge grain production would break the current subsidy arrangements in the Common Agricultural Policy, and Ukraine's large population would put them over the self-imposed limit of 751 MEPs.

It is possible, but not without considerable pain for Ukraine in the process. Poland is a textbook example of this, where many idiotic and worthless state-owned companies went bankrupt in the 2001-2005 era because there was simply no way to keep them going. The grain production is a problem though, because it's not a secret that Ukrainian standards are significantly lower than EU standards, which is why they export a lot of it to Africa.

If you look at the Polish example though, they started in earnest in 1989 to move towards the EU, and they managed it in 15 years. Ukraine is perhaps 5-6 years down the line, meaning that if the war ends tomorrow, we could look at 2030 for Ukrainian membership of the EU.

It's OT, but a bigger issue right now is in the Balkans. The EU has the goal of integrating all the Balkan nations into the EU, but none of them seem particularly capable of moving in that direction. Even Montenegro, which should be pretty straightforward, has only managed to close 3 out of the 33 negotiating chapters, even though some of them are really quite simple to adapt to EU norms. Croatia on the other hand took around 5 years, while Montenegro has been doing this for significantly longer.

 

[Spamcan81]

Tell that to Napoleon.

And the Wehrmacht.

 

[HSTEd]

Don't think it's been the red army since the early 1990s. Although a lot of their equipment seems to date from around that time.

It's not been the Red Army since 1946.

It was renamed the Soviet Ground Forces (less literally, the Soviet Army) as part of a move towards Soviet Nationalism instead of revolutionary fervour as the ideological basis of Soviet society.

 

[simonw]

It's not been the Red Army since 1946.

It was renamed the Soviet Ground Forces (less literally, the Soviet Army) as part of a move towards Soviet Nationalism instead of revolutionary fervour as the ideological basis of Soviet society.

red as in communist is the point I was making

 

[coppercapped]

This is what I think they’ll do. I don’t see any reason for the Ukrainians to amass a large force in Kherson ready for some kind of offensive across the Dnipro, when they could advance from the north and avoid what would probably be a blood bath. This is what I suggested may happen the other day; my only concern is that it seems almost too obvious, although having said that I’m not sure Russia could do much about it at this stage anyway.

Just picking up on this part of your post...

Geography and the ability of the Ukrainian army to limit the effectiveness of the Russian Army by targeting its supply lines, command posts, ammunition and fuel dumps have been critical in the rolling back the Russian advance. Don't forget that the high water mark of the Russian offensive in the South was reached only 3 weeks into the 'special military operation' when the Ukrainians stopped them at Vosnesensk. The Russian army has been retreating ever since.

Because of the long land border the Russians find it considerably easier to supply their forces in the Donbas, both regular and the 'Wagner' militia, as they will do in supplying their forces in the Crimea which is essentially an island. In any event the Russian forces in the Crimea are mainly naval with a lower army presence with fewer heavy weapons (tanks, and artillery) as these were not considered necessary as a land battle was not to be expected there.

Now that the Ukrainian army is in Kherson the precision HIMARS rockets can now cover about half of the Crimean peninsula and start eliminating ammunition dumps, airfields and the like. Of the three routes into the Crimea they have essentially already cut the western one and the Kerch bridge has been damaged. This leaves only the road running along the western edge of the Sea of Azov through Novooleksilvka. I have read reports that suggest that the Russian army has already pulled back from the banks of the Dnipro near Kherson to get out of range of the Ukrainian artillery.

I would suggest that if the Ukrainian forces can get a foothold on the left bank of the Dnipro around Kherson (maybe by arriving by barge from Mykolaiv!) then the Russian ability to resist would be severely limited. After that HIMARS could cover all of the Crimea including the Kerch bridge and the peninsula would be theirs for the taking.

In the longer term this would then place the Russian forces in the Donbas in the middle of a pincer...

...but before then the cracks in the Russian leadership which are bit by bit becoming visible may develop further. Whether, worryingly, an even more extreme group takes over is in the lap of the gods.

Lukashenko tried to play both sides (and did), but eventually ran out moves and had to throw his lot in with Putin in order to stay in power. I expect that when the war is over he’ll be very quick to point out that his forces weren’t actually involved in the fighting, and that he had to let the Russians invade Ukraine via Belarus because of big nasty Vlad etc. etc. Personally I don’t think it will wash but that’s what I expect he’ll try to argue. He’s a survivor if nothing else, but if (when) Putin goes he’ll almost certainly soon follow.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I would suggest that if the Ukrainian forces can get a foothold on the left bank of the Dnipro around Kherson (maybe by arriving by barge from Mykolaiv!) then the Russian ability to resist would be severely limited. After that HIMARS could cover all of the Crimea including the Kerch bridge and the peninsula would be theirs for the taking.

Twitter is alive tonight with claims that the Kinburn Spit is being contested. I don't believe a word of it, but it shows how effective Ukrainian propaganda is online. So yes, if they can indeed gain a foothold, then I'd fully expect Russia to try and fortify Crimea as much as they can.

I have to say that the failure of the Russians to even fight for Kherson suggests that things are really, really not going well within the Russian forces. We were all expecting a bloodbath and substantial amounts of booby traps,

On unrelated news, apparently Ukraine is now fortifying the Belarusian border with mines and fences. Whatever was being planned there hasn't happened, and you have to wonder if Lukashenko didn't order the Belarusian forces to stay out of it.

 

[edwin_m]

Geography and the ability of the Ukrainian army to limit the effectiveness of the Russian Army by targeting its supply lines, command posts, ammunition and fuel dumps have been critical in the rolling back the Russian advance. Don't forget that the high water mark of the Russian offensive in the South was reached only 3 weeks into the 'special military operation' when the Ukrainians stopped them at Vosnesensk. The Russian army has been retreating ever since.

Because of the long land border the Russians find it considerably easier to supply their forces in the Donbas, both regular and the 'Wagner' militia, as they will do in supplying their forces in the Crimea which is essentially an island. In any event the Russian forces in the Crimea are mainly naval with a lower army presence with fewer heavy weapons (tanks, and artillery) as these were not considered necessary as a land battle was not to be expected there.

Now that the Ukrainian army is in Kherson the precision HIMARS rockets can now cover about half of the Crimean peninsula and start eliminating ammunition dumps, airfields and the like. Of the three routes into the Crimea they have essentially already cut the western one and the Kerch bridge has been damaged. This leaves only the road running along the western edge of the Sea of Azov through Novooleksilvka. I have read reports that suggest that the Russian army has already pulled back from the banks of the Dnipro near Kherson to get out of range of the Ukrainian artillery.

I would suggest that if the Ukrainian forces can get a foothold on the left bank of the Dnipro around Kherson (maybe by arriving by barge from Mykolaiv!) then the Russian ability to resist would be severely limited. After that HIMARS could cover all of the Crimea including the Kerch bridge and the peninsula would be theirs for the taking.

In the longer term this would then place the Russian forces in the Donbas in the middle of a pincer...

...but before then the cracks in the Russian leadership which are bit by bit becoming visible may develop further. Whether, worryingly, an even more extreme group takes over is in the lap of the gods.

Twitter is alive tonight with claims that the Kinburn Spit is being contested. I don't believe a word of it, but it shows how effective Ukrainian propaganda is online. So yes, if they can indeed gain a foothold, then I'd fully expect Russia to try and fortify Crimea as much as they can.

I can't help thinking that gaining that foothold on the left bank would put Ukraine in the same kind of position as Russia was before pulling out of the right bank. Sending troops across in significant numbers is likely to be impossible for both sides, and Russia is still able to flood the area if they see Ukrainians arriving on the lower-lying left bank.

There is about 80km of frontline between Zaporizhzhia and where it turns north towards Donetsk, and a southward offensive could come anywhere along that section, so the Russians have quite a long line to hold. The tactic of hitting rear bases and supply lines works equally well here, and as well as preparing the ground for a southward push it also impedes supplies going to Crimea and the area between it and the Dnipro.

 

[brad465]

Twitter is alive tonight with claims that the Kinburn Spit is being contested. I don't believe a word of it, but it shows how effective Ukrainian propaganda is online. So yes, if they can indeed gain a foothold, then I'd fully expect Russia to try and fortify Crimea as much as they can.

I have to say that the failure of the Russians to even fight for Kherson suggests that things are really, really not going well within the Russian forces. We were all expecting a bloodbath and substantial amounts of booby traps,

On unrelated news, apparently Ukraine is now fortifying the Belarusian border with mines and fences. Whatever was being planned there hasn't happened, and you have to wonder if Lukashenko didn't order the Belarusian forces to stay out of it.

Dr Mike Martin has suggested that Kinburn is a diversion to allow Ukrainian forces to attack from other angles more easily. He also now thinks Ukraine will continue to fight through the winter rather than dig in, as they have the morale and momentum and Russia are in defensive mode and thus would rather not escape dug-outs, etc.

 

[Russel]

The talk of Ukraine pausing over winter seemed to be coming from everywhere other than Ukraine.

 

[Cloud Strife]

The talk of Ukraine pausing over winter seemed to be coming from everywhere other than Ukraine.

Yes, I still don't understand where that talk came from. Perhaps people unfamiliar with the weather in the south of Ukraine?

Speaking of the war, it seems that what's happening in/around Bakhmut is nothing short of carnage. There are plenty of strong hints that both sides are getting annihilated there, and that Ukraine is holding out against numerically superior forces. It probably means that the Wagner convicts are being thrown into the theatre with no other purpose than as cannon fodder, but I still fear that this tactic will prove workable in the coming months.

On unrelated news, Hungary is now blocking 18bn Euro in funds from the European Union in retaliation for their own blocked funds. It really is time to cut *all* funding to Hungary (including CAP and cohesion funds) as well as booting them from NATO.

 

[DustyBin]

Yes, I still don't understand where that talk came from. Perhaps people unfamiliar with the weather in the south of Ukraine?

Speaking of the war, it seems that what's happening in/around Bakhmut is nothing short of carnage. There are plenty of strong hints that both sides are getting annihilated there, and that Ukraine is holding out against numerically superior forces. It probably means that the Wagner convicts are being thrown into the theatre with no other purpose than as cannon fodder, but I still fear that this tactic will prove workable in the coming months.

Hopefully the appalling execution of the alleged Wagner deserter over the weekend will massively backfire. From what I’ve seen it hasn’t been well received by anybody in Russia; it’s very difficult to argue you’re the good guys whilst at the same time doing stuff like that.

 

[brad465]

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1592083304760893442

BREAKING: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov taken to hospital after arriving for the #G20 summit in Bali - via @AP citing Indonesian officials

He'll be hoping for a ground floor bed I'm sure.

 

[GS250]

Along with EU membership....the unintended consequence of Putin's barbarity could be he's exposed the frailties of the Russian military hitherto regarded as being potentially formidable.

They have a numerical advantage in many cases, some decent kit here and there. However, command and control, logistics etc are clearly lacking. As probably is motivation in the current theatre.

Definitely not as formidable (per unit) as the force that the USSR once boasted. Kit wise they were at least able to compete with NATO and they had a lot of it. There was even talk that they had finally edged ahead when it came to airframes in the early 80s. The MiG 29 and SU27 were definitely crowd pleasers but avionics and reliability were still not up to Western standards. They did have a lot though.

 

[Annetts key]

The talk of the war slowing down has been going on for ages. Apparently the ‘mud season’ ONLY happens in Ukraine and will stop EVERYTHING! I think the Ukrainian military is fully aware of ground conditions and what the weather is normally like in their own country.

Now apparently it will be cold that slows things. From what I can see, the Ukrainian military intends to continue fighting and pushing back the Russian invaders.

The release of forces from the Kherson area will enable Ukrainian to get ready for an offensive elsewhere, and/or beef up their defensive positions in areas where they are liable to come under attack from the Russian forces.

The only reasons that I think there may be pauses from the Ukrainians, is due to their own tactical reasons.

 

[Giugiaro]

Hopefully the appalling execution of the alleged Wagner deserter over the weekend will massively backfire. From what I’ve seen it hasn’t been well received by anybody in Russia; it’s very difficult to argue you’re the good guys whilst at the same time doing stuff like that.

And Wagner justified the action using a rip-off quote from the movie "Apocalypse Now".

They go as far as saying that killing civilians is justified because "war is war".

That same message can be read in English at War Translated

 

[Bletchleyite]

And Wagner justified the action using a rip-off quote from the movie "Apocalypse Now".

They go as far as saying that killing civilians is justified because "war is war".

That same message can be read in English at War Translated

There's certainly an argument that having rules of killing people is more than a bit bizarre.

 

[coppercapped]

They have a numerical advantage in many cases, some decent kit here and there. However, command and control, logistics etc are clearly lacking. As probably is motivation in the current theatre.

Definitely not as formidable (per unit) as the force that the USSR once boasted. Kit wise they were at least able to compete with NATO and they had a lot of it. There was even talk that they had finally edged ahead when it came to airframes in the early 80s. The MiG 29 and SU27 were definitely crowd pleasers but avionics and reliability were still not up to Western standards. They did have a lot though.

May I recommend this Youtube video by an Australian observer ('Perun') with Slav roots on the way that institutionalised lying corrupts and destroys the effectiveness of an army. It may be found at

As he points out, organisations which don't like hearing bad news can be found everywhere. Some examples are given in the comments section, but as always these should be treated with a certain quantity of scepticism.

 

[gingerheid]

Hopefully the appalling execution of the alleged Wagner deserter over the weekend will massively backfire. From what I’ve seen it hasn’t been well received by anybody in Russia; it’s very difficult to argue you’re the good guys whilst at the same time doing stuff like that.

I have a feeling it will serve the exact purpose it is intended to, which is to make people who don't want to fight more frightened of not doing so. I'm thinking back to the clearly unenthusiastic people in the Vice media conscription centre report at

(and the police that were clearly there to make sure they got on the bus). They obviously know that the alternative to maybe getting killed in Ukraine is probably worse, and who are we to think they might be wrong?

 

[Roast Veg]

Dr Mike Martin has suggested that Kinburn is a diversion to allow Ukrainian forces to attack from other angles more easily. He also now thinks Ukraine will continue to fight through the winter rather than dig in, as they have the morale and momentum and Russia are in defensive mode and thus would rather not escape dug-outs, etc.

Contrary to my predictions upthread, the ISW are suggesting that the cold hard soil will actually lead to an upswing in conflict from both sides, where both will be regrouping their forces on the aforementioned frontline.

 

[35B]

There's certainly an argument that having rules of killing people is more than a bit bizarre.

War has long been subject to rules that limit what forces may do. That makes a lot more sense when you consider that just war theory has always required that war have a purpose, and be limited to that purpose. Killing is not a purpose, but a necessary consequence of fighting a war. Many have confused the two.

On the other hand, when you have a conflict where the purpose is quite clearly genocidal, we should not be surprised that the aggressors are completely ignoring the laws of war.

 

[najaB]

There's certainly an argument that having rules of killing people is more than a bit bizarre.

The rules of war basically boil down to "Don't kill any more people than you absolutely have to in order to achieve your objectives".

 

[REVUpminster]

Telegraph today; Zambia has asked Russia how a 23-year-old Zambian citizen in a prison in Moscow has died in Ukraine.

 

[GS250]

Telegraph today; Zambia has asked Russia how a 23-year-old Zambian citizen in a prison in Moscow has died in Ukraine.

Maybe he agreed to fight for Russia and earn some brownie points and an early release? Sadly for him the only brown involved was ending up brown bread.

 

[najaB]

Maybe he agreed to fight for Russia and earn some brownie points and an early release?

I'm sure that will be the answer given by Russia. It may, however, turn out that he was made an offer that he couldn't refuse.

 

[ainsworth74]

I'm sure that will be the answer given by Russia. It may, however, turn out that he was made an offer that he couldn't refuse.

Or an offer he didn't understand. There's been more than a few stories leaking out of enlistment papers being presented to people who can't read Russian and then being told to sign on the dotted line. Or the document being snuck into the middle of a big bundle of other documents needing a signature. And then suddenly you're in the army now...

 

[Cloud Strife]

Or an offer he didn't understand. There's been more than a few stories leaking out of enlistment papers being presented to people who can't read Russian and then being told to sign on the dotted line. Or the document being snuck into the middle of a big bundle of other documents needing a signature. And then suddenly you're in the army now...

More than likely, I'd say. He was already in prison for a lengthy spell for something relating to drugs, so I suspect that the Russians had no problem sending him to the front line.