Working from home has certainly had it’s effect on the long distance commuting market, which has freed up some units for the South West.
The business case for the 802 units called for split and joins at Plymouth because of the wish to get the Cornish half hourly service in. At that time it was either long trains and no Cornish half hourly or what was eventually done, it always being easier to extend later rather than try and get extra services in later. In this case, time has certainly proved that to be true.
It was always hoped that demand would lead to longer trains down to Penzance (and that is why re-instating Ponsandane sidings is key) and in DA3 FG drew up schemes that would lead to between 10 and 14 802 5 car sets to become 9 car and the remaining 5 cars would have been transferred to the Cardiff-Penzance run. The DfT made it clear that they “didn’t require that option to be presented” to them.
Now it is clear that the hugely lucrative traffic west of Didcot isn’t coming back, at least for a number of years, we can get 9 and 10 car working down to Penzance and do away with regular split and joins at Plymouth. Ponsandane will lead to Penzance being able to stable more long sets, taking away the pressure on Laira.
The use of the 802 sets on the Cardiff-Penzance corridor, hopefully supplemented by 158 units (freed up by Turbos) will lead to the end of the HST sets but they haven’t been a total waste of money. They were intended to be a stopgap and they have done (and are still doing) their job very well, if a little expensively.
This will also allow Laira to do more work on the 802 sets. They are already doing a lot of the 36 day exams on them and getting rid of the HST sets will allow them to do a bit more work on this fleet, which tends to revolve around LA anyway.