Poor quality passenger rail service increases demand for private car purchases

[Thirteen]

I am a car owner who has spent periods without a car - this is when one car dies and I don't rush to replace it for many months. One car was stolen and I went without for many years (bought a house instead !). I mainly use public transport within London - a car is not strictly necessary within London unless you have something large to shift or a lot of shopping. Covid made a private car more attractive as does the demise of our town centre shopping. Outside London my use has changed from mainly rail with some driving to mainly coach with some driving but more driving than before. I usually end up regretting the phases where I do not have a car. Gone are the trips by rail with enthusiast friends and are replaced by road. This started decades ago but the strikes mean we never consider rail now. Now, in our case, rail will get a look in once it is reliable but actually car is more convenient - we always used to try and use rail but it has been noticed how much more flexible the car is.

But all those people who have only just bought a car for the sole reason of continuing life without strike ridden rail are very likely going to keep their car for many years. So for many years rail will be competing against cars more than rail had been before. Covid also makes car seem safer. Some people will never consider rail again. Some will use rail for some journeys but not all. Some will revert to railway once their car has expired. Some (many ?) will buy another car as they have formed a habit. The thing about car ownership is that it is not something you pick up and put down on a day-to-day or even year-to-year basis. Owning a car is an investment, the owner will then continue to use that car as many of the costs are already incurred regardless of use (purchase, maintenance, road-tax and insurance). In fact I have learnt that lack of use of ones car is likely to cause unreliability. Worse still if someone has gone to the trouble of learning to drive they are even more committed to private transport than they ever were before.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Jan 2023 ==


But with more working from home the benefit to the economy of the whole country is less.

---

It does seem a double whammy that following on from the railways losing a significant chunk of their revenue due to Covid any recovery is stalled by industrial action. Not sure there would ever be 100% recovery as working from home is far better in many ways (but with a few downsides). But as an ex commuter I know I do not want to rely on the railways. I got out of that by avoiding commuting so far.

Not all jobs can be done from home so public transport and that include rail will always have a place and many housing development schemes require good transport links as a condition for approval.

The Tram and DLR in London have helped connect and regenerate areas which previously had little to no rail links so there is a benefit which has paid back its investment.

 

[dk1]

No trains again today obviously so thought I’d catch the bus in & give the £2 single fare a go. A few regular rail passengers waiting too but unfortunately the bus never shew up so after 20 minutes I walked back home to get the car. Will give it another try tomorrow & hope for better luck.

 

[bspahh]

I just tried Haywards Heath to Edinburgh, 09:00 1st March, coming back 17:00 on 3rd. Cheapest price with limited availability 2 adults 2 kids is £369.30, some prices up to £552. That's if there are no strikes on that day which of course you can't know. Fuel there and back would be around £170.

At https://book.splitticketing.com/ for 2 adults and 2 kids with a family railcard its £199.21 or £229.21 if you need to buy the railcard.

That starts at Haywards Heath at 8.57 to Edinburgh at 15.09 via Victoria and Kings Cross, and returning on the 17:00, changing at Stevenage to get to Haywards Heath at 22:59.

 

[ar10642]

At https://book.splitticketing.com/ for 2 adults and 2 kids with a family railcard its £199.21 or £229.21 if you need to buy the railcard.

That starts at Haywards Heath at 8.57 to Edinburgh at 15.09 via Victoria and Kings Cross, and returning on the 17:00, changing at Stevenage to get to Haywards Heath at 22:59.

That's a much better price, but I have been wary of split ticketing as there are risks with it in disruption, I had to do a fair bit of explaining/pleading last time I did a split ticket to work at Cambridge via Baldock and the ECML was blocked and I had to go via Liverpool Street instead.

 

[Thirteen]

It would be increasing to see a survey of car owners on whether they use public transport because I think the results would be telling.

While it's not public transport per se, the Santander Cycle Scheme in London saw its busiest year ever:

London’s cycle hire scheme has its busiest year ever

Transport for London's (TfL) cycle hire scheme saw more bikes hired during 2022 than any other year in the scheme’s history, with 11.5 million rentals across the year.

www.ianvisits.co.uk

 

[Bletchleyite]

It would be increasing to see a survey of car owners on whether they use public transport because I think the results would be telling.

While it's not public transport per se, the Santander Cycle Scheme in London saw its busiest year ever:

London’s cycle hire scheme has its busiest year ever

Transport for London's (TfL) cycle hire scheme saw more bikes hired during 2022 than any other year in the scheme’s history, with 11.5 million rentals across the year.

www.ianvisits.co.uk

I think due to the sustainability of cycling and how it's very handy to use in conjunction with motorised public transport it makes sense to let it into the public transport "club". Though what that scheme really is (like the e-scooters elsewhere) is a human powered, passenger driven taxi.

Taxis themselves are (like station car parks) similarly a bit of a "sort of in, sort of out" given that they themselves are just private cars but are used to enable public transport for journeys you'd otherwise drive fully instead.

 

[GS250]

Driving or even getting the coach to somewhere like Scotland from the south and vice versa is a last resort option.

I've driven to the Isle of Skye and back from Greater London twice in the last few months. The fuel cost there and back is around £240. This in a slightly thirsty car that averages 38mpg on a run. So lets stick on £20 wear and tear too although a long, linear run is relatively low wear. £260 total. It takes around 12 hours which includes 2-3 small breaks. This is generally keeping to the speed limit too. In the past this run could be done in 10h or so but this before the absolute swarm of speed cameras that have manifested themselves over the M1 and M6. Bearing in mind too, that some of the 'variable limit' cameras are now turned on all the time. Anything over (generally) 79mph and you get a nice letter through the post. The cost is split between me an my partner.

To get the train up to Skye is effectively London to Inverness, Inverness to Kyle and then a bus to Portree. Unless you get a butt crack early train, then you can factor in a hotel in Inverness too. Of course you can also travel via Glasgow, the West Highland line then a ferry to Armadale, bus to Portree. For two people you are looking at around £300 return minimum and that's booking well in advance. Generally, this will be around £400 although walk on can be just short of £500 for 2 passengers. And whilst it may seem pedantic...8+ hours on a standard class IET seat is no real fun at all. Some well to do teacher types at work took the train to the Highlands in the summer and commented on how uncomfortable it was and that they won't be doing it again. So its not just us who fondly remember the MK2s and 3's that were once the intercity stable.

Flying is generally considered the best value but during the last year or so flights have definitely increased in price on this route. With a large case you are looking at around £150 return per passenger for a flight that connects with a bus or train at Inverness. The later evening flights can be half this but you then need to factor in a hotel then. There are of course then costs to get to the airport, then train/bus to Kyle then bus to Portree. So realistically £200 per person with baggage. Maybe £150 without.

Timings wise,driving is usually 12h. The train is generally 12 hours too factoring in getting to London Termini and then getting from Inverness to Skye. Flying, on average is 6-8h considering logistics of getting to and from the airport.

So for 2 people, around:

£260 driving.
£400 train.
£375 flying.

You can see why the train simply isn't really an option for most, even though for me its by far the most enjoyable and relaxing way. Well it is if you go 1st but that just add's another layer of cost. Driving is stressful for some, but modern cars are generally comfortable and pleasant to travel in.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I've driven to the Isle of Skye and back from Greater London twice in the last few months. The fuel cost there and back is around £240. This in a slightly thirsty car that averages 38mpg on a run. So lets stick on £20 wear and tear too although a long, linear run is relatively low wear. £260 total. It takes around 12 hours which includes 2-3 small breaks.

My strong personal opinion is that that is dangerous, unless you've got two drivers (but even so it's a long trip and being in a car itself causes fatigue). That journey absolutely needs an overnight break, and even if you considered it didn't "three short breaks" is nothing like enough, you need at least one long break for a decent sit down meal or similar away from the vehicle to completely clear your head, plus a greater number of shorter ones.

Please don't do this, it puts others at risk. You may not feel tired, but you will be.

The tacho rules for lorry drivers and coach drivers are as they are for a reason, and driving a lorry on the inside lane of a motorway at 56 is a heck of a lot less mentally taxing than driving a car at 70+.

 

[dk1]

I've driven to the Isle of Skye and back from Greater London twice in the last few months. The fuel cost there and back is around £240. This in a slightly thirsty car that averages 38mpg on a run. So lets stick on £20 wear and tear too although a long, linear run is relatively low wear. £260 total. It takes around 12 hours which includes 2-3 small breaks. This is generally keeping to the speed limit too. In the past this run could be done in 10h or so but this before the absolute swarm of speed cameras that have manifested themselves over the M1 and M6. Bearing in mind too, that some of the 'variable limit' cameras are now turned on all the time. Anything over (generally) 79mph and you get a nice letter through the post. The cost is split between me an my partner.

To get the train up to Skye is effectively London to Inverness, Inverness to Kyle and then a bus to Portree. Unless you get a butt crack early train, then you can factor in a hotel in Inverness too. Of course you can also travel via Glasgow, the West Highland line then a ferry to Armadale, bus to Portree. For two people you are looking at around £300 return minimum and that's booking well in advance. Generally, this will be around £400 although walk on can be just short of £500 for 2 passengers. And whilst it may seem pedantic...8+ hours on a standard class IET seat is no real fun at all. Some well to do teacher types at work took the train to the Highlands in the summer and commented on how uncomfortable it was and that they won't be doing it again. So its not just us who fondly remember the MK2s and 3's that were once the intercity stable.

Flying is generally considered the best value but during the last year or so flights have definitely increased in price on this route. With a large case you are looking at around £150 return per passenger for a flight that connects with a bus or train at Inverness. The later evening flights can be half this but you then need to factor in a hotel then. There are of course then costs to get to the airport, then train/bus to Kyle then bus to Portree. So realistically £200 per person with baggage. Maybe £150 without.

Timings wise,driving is usually 12h. The train is generally 12 hours too factoring in getting to London Termini and then getting from Inverness to Skye. Flying, on average is 6-8h considering logistics of getting to and from the airport.

So for 2 people, around:

£260 driving.
£400 train.
£375 flying.

You can see why the train simply isn't really an option for most, even though for me its by far the most enjoyable and relaxing way. Well it is if you go 1st but that just add's another layer of cost. Driving is stressful for some, but modern cars are generally comfortable and pleasant to travel in.

Sounds like hell on earth to me. Unless you have a very important reason why would you put yourself through that?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Sounds like hell on earth to me. Unless you have a very important reason why would you put yourself through that?

Well, quite, but I'm more concerned by the risk this puts other road users at.

Perhaps a case for "black boxes" to be mandatory for insurance - this sort of thing would whack premiums right up.

Nobody should be making a 12 hour drive with "three short breaks". It's downright dangerous. You can argue about whether my personal 250ish mile threshold is right, but this (well over twice that at 607 miles according to Google, and much of it not even on motorways so far more mental attention required) is just nuts.

 

[GS250]

My strong personal opinion is that that is dangerous, unless you've got two drivers (but even so it's a long trip and being in a car itself causes fatigue). That journey absolutely needs an overnight break, and even if you considered it didn't "three short breaks" is nothing like enough, you need at least one long break for a decent sit down meal or similar away from the vehicle to completely clear your head, plus a greater number of shorter ones.

Please don't do this, it puts others at risk. You may not feel tired, but you will be.

The tacho rules for lorry drivers and coach drivers are as they are for a reason, and driving a lorry on the inside lane of a motorway at 56 is a heck of a lot less mentally taxing than driving a car at 70+.

The driving is shared between me and my partner. There's one break of about 30 mins for lunch usually.

However, I've done this route myself once and am generally fine at the end. I agree, most people would be utterly shattered but as many a bad point I've got, I've generally got excellent powers of concentration and am pretty robust when I need to be. I don't think you can apply generalist rules to everyone. My partner wouldn't dream of driving this in one stint, she'd be shattered after 8h. Plus, factor in modern cars such as my big comfy old Lexus. It does make a difference in my my opinion.

Its a fair and valid point you raised though.

 

[stj]

Not just the state of Public Transport to blame, home working has reduced traffic in many areas that its now easier to drive and park a car than it was pre-covid.

 

[GS250]

Sounds like hell on earth to me. Unless you have a very important reason why would you put yourself through that?

Its not hell. It a great test of endurance and character. Trust me, if I felt like I was struggling, I'd pull over and sleep it out. There's a difference between pushing yourself and downright recklessness.

 

[Vespa]

Pretty much a rerun of the 60/70s, people abandoned the railways once they got a car and the railway suffered a death of a thousand cuts because of it.

Work from home is the next big thing.

 

[GS250]

Well, quite, but I'm more concerned by the risk this puts other road users at.

Perhaps a case for "black boxes" to be mandatory for insurance - this sort of thing would whack premiums right up.

Nobody should be making a 12 hour drive with "three short breaks". It's downright dangerous. You can argue about whether my personal 250ish mile threshold is right, but this (well over twice that at 607 miles according to Google, and much of it not even on motorways so far more mental attention required) is just nuts.

What about those going to war who have to maintain concentration for even longer periods? Its very much an individual state of mind affair in my opinion. Some have it, others don't.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Jan 2023 ==

Pretty much a rerun of the 60/70s, people abandoned the railways once they got a car and the railway suffered a death of a thousand cuts because of it.

Especially as cars nowadays all offer relative comforts that were unheard of back then. Even a modest Ford Focus is air conditioned, has comfy seats and will probably get you from one end of the country to another without dying on you.

 

[Thirteen]

Pretty much a rerun of the 60/70s, people abandoned the railways once they got a car and the railway suffered a death of a thousand cuts because of it.

Work from home is the next big thing.

Can't imagine people abandoning public transport on mass in favour of cars. Indeed the move towards using anything but the car is favoured in major cities.

I do think a lot of this is hyperbole, we're seeing new rail projects every year and we see the benefits like the Northern Line Extension, the Elizabeth Line, HS2 in the next few years and even new stations like Barking Riverside and Brent Cross West, that doesn't suggest the railways are going anytime soon.

 

[yorksrob]

What about those going to war who have to maintain concentration for even longer periods? Its very much an individual state of mind affair in my opinion. Some have it, others don't.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Jan 2023 ==



Especially as cars nowadays all offer relative comforts that were unheard of back then. Even a modest Ford Focus is air conditioned, has comfy seats and will probably get you from one end of the country to another without dying on you.

You were lucky if you got a radio and a cigarette lighter in the car in those days, whilst trains had comfy seats, compartments and restaurants.

Nowadays, it's the opposite (although some of the early motorway service station restaurants were quite snazzy for the time).

 

[GS250]

You were lucky if you got a radio and a cigarette lighter in the car in those days, whilst trains had comfy seats, compartments and restaurants.

Nowadays, it's the opposite (although some of the early motorway service station restaurants were quite snazzy for the time).

You could say cars comfort wise have progressed hugely. Where as trains have arguably regressed comfort wise.

 

[Thirteen]

You could say cars comfort wise have progressed hugely. Where as trains have arguably regressed comfort wise.

You could say that for most mass forms of transport really, it's not exclusive to trains.

 

[in_the_west]

I must admit I'm one of these people who finally gave in in 2020 and bought a car. This was because of the ever decreasing bus service provision though, and nothing to do with trains, but I can certainly understand the reasoning therefore.

When I started my first job, I used the train to commute to/from my workplace every day. However, I ended up buying my first car in 1989 as a direct result of the rail strikes that year as it was the only way I could travel to/from my workplace. I didn't return to using trains on a regular basis until many years after that.

For the past few years (even before COVID) I've been working from home most of the time so don't need to travel to workplace every day or even every week.

 

[yorksrob]

You could say cars comfort wise have progressed hugely. Where as trains have arguably regressed comfort wise.

Indeed !

I'm not a fan of motoring myself, but I can see how others enjoy a well designed car !

 

[Master29]

Timings wise,driving is usually 12h. The train is generally 12 hours too factoring in getting to London Termini and then getting from Inverness to Skye. Flying, on average is 6-8h considering logistics of getting to and from the airport.

So for 2 people, around:

£260 driving.
£400 train.
£375 flying.

You can see why the train simply isn't really an option for most, even though for me its by far the most enjoyable and relaxing way. Well it is if you go 1st but that just add's another layer of cost. Driving is stressful for some, but modern cars are generally comfortable and pleasant to travel in.

Forgive me but how on earth is driving comfortable and pleasant on such a journey as the Isle of Skye in any car. I don't believe that any journey is quite frankly nor ever has been. Comfort over such a long trip can be a double edged sword. Subjective I know of course. Until we get Star Trek style travel I don't think such an undertaking is ever going to be easy unless one enjoys such travel. With the possible exception of flying of course.

 

[Silver Cobra]

My strong personal opinion is that that is dangerous, unless you've got two drivers (but even so it's a long trip and being in a car itself causes fatigue). That journey absolutely needs an overnight break, and even if you considered it didn't "three short breaks" is nothing like enough, you need at least one long break for a decent sit down meal or similar away from the vehicle to completely clear your head, plus a greater number of shorter ones.

Please don't do this, it puts others at risk. You may not feel tired, but you will be.

The tacho rules for lorry drivers and coach drivers are as they are for a reason, and driving a lorry on the inside lane of a motorway at 56 is a heck of a lot less mentally taxing than driving a car at 70+.

There's an old acquaintance to my family who used to drive from Arlesey in Bedfordshire up to Stromness in the Orkneys and back every 1 to 2 months from around 2015 to 2019, very often only being away for 2-3 days at a time. In order to make this a worthwhile trip, he must have done the journey without any overnight breaks. Irrespective of the fact I don't have a driving license, I certainly would not entertain the idea of doing such a journey without any proper breaks.

 

[ChrisC]

There have been lots of different comments and thoughts in this thread since I last looked yesterday so sorry if my contribution is a bit behind with things.

When my sister lived between Dunoon and Inveraray in the West of Scotland for the 20 years she lived there I used to drive up from Nottinghamshire two or three times each year. That really was about as far as I would want to drive in one day. The whole journey used to take me about 8 hours, including the ferry from Gourock to Dunoon, and I always had a break of up to an hour, usually in Penrith for a good breakfast. I really don’t think I could safely have driven much further in a day and I was over 20 years younger then.

I’ve been driving for nearly 50 years now, and although not all in one day, over the years I have literally driven all over the UK from Lands End to John O’Groats and out in the Outer Hebrides! I’ve always enjoyed driving but have to admit that I have always avoided driving into the centre of large cities. In all those years I have only once driven within the M25 when I visited a friend in Crouch Hill and even the North Circular in the middle of the day 40 years ago was more than enough for me. I’ve never driven into any of the large UK cities and have always gone by train or used park and ride if it’s a day visit to a city not too far away. It’s a number of years since I even drove into the centre of Nottingham which is only about 10 miles away from where I live.

During the current unreliability of the trains especially due to the strikes most of my holidays away have been avoiding the trains and so have been in smaller towns and rural areas and I have taken my car. Mostly they have been within about 3-4 hours drive from home. It’s looking like there are not going to be any more strikes during the next 2 weeks so I am seriously thinking of booking a few nights in London the week after next and travelling by train.

 

[greyman42]

LNER services are well used and (pre strikes) Avanti were overcrowded to the point they were no longer selling cheap advances. Some people are clearly willing and able to pay what’s being asked.

Regarding LNER, York is under 2 hours from London and Newcastle under 3. Road transport comes no where near that so LNER are always going to do well on that route.

 

[dk1]

Its not hell. It a great test of endurance and character. Trust me, if I felt like I was struggling, I'd pull over and sleep it out. There's a difference between pushing yourself and downright recklessness.

That aside to me even the idea would be hell on earth lol. Then again we are all different.

 

[Jimini]

A colleague of mine drives between his two houses in the US each month.

Princeton, NJ to Jacksonville, FL.

Just a cool 900 miles(!)

 

[jayah]

Is it? If you can plan far enough ahead you can get some good advance deals, for example less then £40 one way from London to Edinburgh, £30 one way Edinburgh to London, £47 London to Swansea, £36 Birmingham to Glasgow, and so on. Of course walk-on fares are expensive but how many people make a long-distance journey on the spur of the moment?

Yes it is. The people using long distance (more than 75 miles) rail are rich.

Nobody can find these 'deals' and have little interest in booking 7 months ahead or doing a 5 way ticket split, when you can drive for a fraction of the flexible prices.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Jan 2023 ==

Perhaps not under this government. I don't see why the public sector wage shouldn't increase in line with e.g. CPIH though, as a matter of general principle.

I don't buy the wage-inflation spiral nonsense that keeps getting brought up (and nor do a number of economists), but it is a convenient way to defend a policy of continued austerity.

The country is too heavily indebted. Inflation isn't going away either. Many people seem to have forgotten the lesson from September concerning unfunded spending and are back on the Corbyn magic money tree.

Even Starmer & Reeves know those days are gone. They realise they need economic growth to deflate the debt and public sector workforce productivity instead of never ending headcount increases, but they have no clue how to get either.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Jan 2023 ==

Was it doom and gloom in 2009?

That's where we're at in terms of passenger numbers between October 21 and September 22 (1.2bn).

Which is pretty good going given:
- most TOC's are still running below 100% of 2019 services with the likes of XC, TPE and Avanti running 60-65% of the service km that they were
- until at least until December 21 there were Covid related calculations within the wider economy (such as Christmas parties)
- lack of staff
- strikes

If the first two quarters of the 2022/23 rail use were repeated we'd see circa 1.4bn passengers in that year (circa 2011), however there appears to have been ongoing growth in Q3:

Domestic Transport Usage by Mode

www.gov.uk

If that is 7% higher than Q2 and Q4 is 7% higher again then we could reach 1.5bn (2012), now this isn't an unreasonable rate of growth as Q1 to Q2 was 8.87%.

If the stikes were dealt and staffing levels werea little better with we could easily suppress those numbers, assuming a 15% (again not an unreasonable rate of growth) growth in Q4 we might justbe at 2014 levels.

Even if growth stopped (or slowed having been slightly less growth to Q4, so we end up at the same point) at that point we'd then be at 2019/20 levels of use in 2023/24 maybe even a tiny bit ahead.

That shows just how close we could be to matching 2019/20 rail use just by a small amount of future growth and getting rid of the poor Q1 and Q2 usage.

The railway has lost about 25% of its pre COVID passenger fare income and currently has not revealed the plan to close the gap.

The post COVID recovery is now being kneecaped by unions who expected RPI increases in pay to return as soon as the pandemic was over.

Far worse than 2009.

 

[GS250]

Regarding LNER, York is under 2 hours from London and Newcastle under 3. Road transport comes no where near that so LNER are always going to do well on that route.

Yes it's very impressive reaching York and Newcastle in that time. Trouble is if you are like most people then you lose around an hour just getting to Kings Cross.

 

[The Ham]

The railway has lost about 25% of its pre COVID passenger fare income and currently has not revealed the plan to close the gap.

The post COVID recovery is now being kneecaped by unions who expected RPI increases in pay to return as soon as the pandemic was over.

Far worse than 2009.

The railways are constrained by what the government allows, however even then if we repeat the last 2 quarters of data we're back to 2011 passenger numbers (so far better than 2009).

If the strikes were to end and we see 5% growth each quarter for the next 6 quarters we'd see passenger numbers reach 2019 levels in 2023/24 (as a comparison Q1 to Q2 was about 9%) even though there's ongoing strikes.