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Poor quality passenger rail service increases demand for private car purchases

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al78

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It just feels odd that in a world where we are pushing for sustainability and mental health, we are seeing more and more people turning to cars because the public transport is like a chocolate teapot. Cars are known to be bad for the environment and to cause stress while driving. It also doesn't help with the service cuts and unreliability we see on the railway and buses.
One of the major flaws of capitalism in its current form is that frequently, externalised costs do not appear on the balance sheet, so if it turns out cheaper in monetary terms to use methods which result in inflicting more stress on people and/or increase environmental damage, that is what businesses will do if they can get away with it (i.e. there is no regulation).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Depends if that's worth an extra half an hour added to the commute time.

My work is over a mile from the nearest station....
It's great having a short distance from home to station and station to work. It is only 2.4 miles from my house to the station which is an easy 15 minutes by bicycle, even though it involves using the town centre bypass, and at the other end it is less than a five minute walk.
 
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jayah

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In not sure that most of the railway makes a loss when you look at only TOC costs, not when the Tavistock reopening claims to note than cover GWR's costs for a new hourly service (in addition to the current 0.5tph service over the existing branch - which is still starting from Plymouth).

Also looking at rail subsidies is only half the picture. If you cut a branch line to a tourist area you reduce the number who can get there as easily, which is likely to have a detrimental impact on the economy of that area. You probably don't need many ending up claiming benefits and no longer pating taxes before a line that was costing £50,000 in support ended up costing more to the country by being closed than being open.
While valid, these arguments have no traction in the decision making. You wouldn't have social care in the mess it is and people of working age off sick on waiting lists for 18 months.

Most of the train miles and most of the route miles are Northern economics, subsidy many, many times the farebox revenue.

If you look at Okehampton, generously halving Barnstaple, something like 200k single passenger journeys a year at perhaps £4 each way if they are all full fare paying adults. It doesn't pay for many traincrew?

If you took the 10 single journeys per head of population it could top out at 60k single journeys a year at £3 each.
 

The Ham

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While valid, these arguments have no traction in the decision making. You wouldn't have social care in the mess it is and people of working age off sick on waiting lists for 18 months.

It's the reason such arguments have no traction nectar the argument is flawed or because too many look at the departmental cost and don't look at the bigger picture?

If it's the latter then it's no wonder that growth and efficacy rates for the UK are below a satisfactory level.

Most of the train miles and most of the route miles are Northern economics, subsidy many, many times the farebox revenue.

If you look at Okehampton, generously halving Barnstaple, something like 200k single passenger journeys a year at perhaps £4 each way if they are all full fare paying adults. It doesn't pay for many traincrew?

If you took the 10 single journeys per head of population it could top out at 60k single journeys a year at £3 each.

I'm only highlighting that the Tavistock reopening claims to note than cover the £2.2 million cited as running costs (figure 4.1 of the report).

In reality is likely because many would use the train beyond between Tavistock and Plymouth (Okehampton and Exeter), it's also worth noting that following the reopening to Okehampton passenger numbers for Crediton also saw a significant increase.

As such a single station with 500,000 is probably about what's needed to make a line just about viable (obviously a longer line would need more passengers) for a TOC to run services and cover their costs.

The total subsidy includes all NR costs (so any enhancements, which have their costs in the current year but their returns over a 60 year period - as well as the NR loan costs), whilst this needs covering the issue is many NR costs are fixed or don't reduce much as you reduce use/track milage.

That means if Okehampton were to close it probably wouldn't save all that much. However, it would harm the economy potentially to the extent that the small saving was offset by other costs (such as loss of tax income and maybe increased benefit payments).

Therefore actually being a bigger cost to the government than keeping it running.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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While valid, these arguments have no traction in the decision making. You wouldn't have social care in the mess it is and people of working age off sick on waiting lists for 18 months.

Most of the train miles and most of the route miles are Northern economics, subsidy many, many times the farebox revenue.

If you look at Okehampton, generously halving Barnstaple, something like 200k single passenger journeys a year at perhaps £4 each way if they are all full fare paying adults. It doesn't pay for many traincrew?

If you took the 10 single journeys per head of population it could top out at 60k single journeys a year at £3 each.
Northern is where the most opportunity is to save costs but will only be trimmed at the edges as politically too much at stake for the Tories now in its operating area.
 

ar10642

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Northern is where the most opportunity is to save costs but will only be trimmed at the edges as politically too much at stake for the Tories now in its operating area.

Surely most of them will be toast at the next election anyway?
 

Jonny

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Newcastle-upon-Tyne and Gateshead as a block area as heinous as anywhere to drive around, and I would dare say that the buses are only ever going to marginally better, once they run out of bus lane. One of the tendencies in the Newcastle/Gateshead block is to drop speed limits to 20mph over large areas, and that includes the bus routes. Frankly all the recent dint in the timetable at Chester-le-Street has done is give me the push to get in shape with the bicycle. Now that there are hybrid bicycle/kick scooters (which are legally the latter) on the market and depending on the regulatory environment, I might even get one of those. Once the Tyne Bridge even temporarily loses lanes, it will be proverbial carnage.
 

yorksrob

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Northern is where the most opportunity is to save costs but will only be trimmed at the edges as politically too much at stake for the Tories now in its operating area.

Only if you take costs alone as your point of reference.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Only if you take costs alone as your point of reference.
Of course but that is the pressure that the Treasury are placing on DfT but they won't come at from a logical approach as there are other factors at play so all operators are being targeted even ones with low levels of subsidy.
 

jayah

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It's the reason such arguments have no traction nectar the argument is flawed or because too many look at the departmental cost and don't look at the bigger picture?

If it's the latter then it's no wonder that growth and efficacy rates for the UK are below a satisfactory level.



I'm only highlighting that the Tavistock reopening claims to note than cover the £2.2 million cited as running costs (figure 4.1 of the report).

In reality is likely because many would use the train beyond between Tavistock and Plymouth (Okehampton and Exeter), it's also worth noting that following the reopening to Okehampton passenger numbers for Crediton also saw a significant increase.

As such a single station with 500,000 is probably about what's needed to make a line just about viable (obviously a longer line would need more passengers) for a TOC to run services and cover their costs.

The total subsidy includes all NR costs (so any enhancements, which have their costs in the current year but their returns over a 60 year period - as well as the NR loan costs), whilst this needs covering the issue is many NR costs are fixed or don't reduce much as you reduce use/track milage.

That means if Okehampton were to close it probably wouldn't save all that much. However, it would harm the economy potentially to the extent that the small saving was offset by other costs (such as loss of tax income and maybe increased benefit payments).

Therefore actually being a bigger cost to the government than keeping it running.
The rule of thumb outside London is 5 return journeys per head of population.

The population of Tavistock is 11,000, half that of Barnstaple, which doesn't get close to 500,000 footfall or 250,000 return journeys, despite having a vast catchment beyond and inbound tourism.

I don't know what figures you are using but even £1m a year would seem optimistic.
 
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The Ham

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The rule of thumb outside London is 5 return journeys per head of population.

The population of Tavistock is 11,000, half that of Barnstaple, which doesn't get close to 500,000 footfall or 250,000 return journeys, despite having a vast catchment beyond and inbound tourism.

I don't know what figures you are using but even £1m a year would seem optimistic.

I am only using the numbers from the reopening report.

As to the 5 return journeys per head of population, not sure when that is for, however given 2019/20 was 11 (not London), I can only guess at it being for 2021/22.

Some examples which raise the validity; Okehampton managed 3.85 in 6 months, whilst Truro (population of 23,000 and use of 1.049 million, so comparable in population to Barnstaple) manages (excluding interchanges) 17. Likewise just the top 5 stations in Cornwall (out of 36) manage to exceed 5 when compared to the whole population of Cornwall when looking at 2021/22 data (which is likely to be significantly lower than 2022/23 data just based on looking at Q2 2022/23 vs Q4 2021/22, with Q3 of 2022/23 likely to be higher still). As such 5 return trips is likely to be surpassed this year with closer to 10 being possible (85% of 11 would be over 9).

Also I'm not sure Barnstaple is a good comparison station, as it's quite some distance from Exeter (journey time of over double that which Tavistock would see to Plymouth).
 

TPO

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I don't think anyone thinks we shouldn't have a public road network to all but the most remote locations. The argument is whether we need a second transport system as extensive as the current railway.
Interesting comparison as the small remote locations are unlikely to generate the tax revenue to pay for their construction/upkeep...... even in these days of reduced highway maintenance.

Agreed. Especially as the bus could serve Newville which is two miles from the railway but didn't exist when it was built 150 years ago and go into Largeville town centre which is a mile from the station up a steep hill.

History tells us that replacing a closed branch line with a bus doesn't work. That was Beeching's solution and people just got a car rather than take the bus.

I certainly don't think that we should have a public road network (not least I'd be out of a job as I design roads), likewise I have no issue with there being changes to the existing rail network as long as any restriction is evaluated to ensure that it was actually beneficial to the country as a whole (i.e. didn't result in reduced tax take and higher benefits payments than it cost to retain the rail line).



It very much depends. Do tourists come by train? Would they still need to use rail to get to Urbancity and how many work there? Does the TOC cover their costs in running the trains (i.e. excluding most NR costs)? How much short is that NR costs shortfall? How much money would actually be spent on the road upgrades? Who would lose property for the road building (a few farmers, probably not much of an issue, but if it starts impacting houses that's not going to go down well)? Would the road upgrades result in more development (altering the nature of Smallville)?

However such changes are likely to be minor tinkering compared with what many think is needed.

It certainly won't impact on the £1bn of NR loan costs, where the only way to ensure that's covered is to have people using railways (the more the better)

I think there's a lot of looking down the wrong end of the telescope. We don't expect roads to make a profit but railways we do expect this?

There's a different way of looking at all this. The state takes a chunk of money (tax) from each of us every year, and in return, they provide essential public services. These services are about healthcare, access to other services via transport (road, rail, bus), education etc. Some of those services are costly to provide, so they need to be as efficient as reasonable within the boundary of the service being what is appropriate for the end user and the country as a whole [and many of them are not efficient or user-focused....]. In some cases, we also expect a "point of use" contribution- whether that be paying for prescriptions, paying for school trips or paying a fare on a bus/train. Honest conversations about responsibility vs rights and what core services should be provided and how (local or central) need to be had- something political parties are ALL VERY BAD at. Planning for demographic changes is required to be considered for efficiency to be achieved. Overall, the tax take vs the spend needs to balance and we want to get best societal value we can for each penny/pound spent.

BUT- that is balance overall. Not service by service. It's the difference between "output" and "outcome."

In that gap between "output" and "outcome" are all the extra revenues generated from the provision of these core services. For example, a good regular evening public transport system means more people out spending money in restaurants/pubs (increase tax). And if you doubt the value of things like that, then you need to see the GDP figures out today- apparently not as bad as predicted as a lot pf people went out to the pub to watch the World Cup.

What I'd like to see is a move away from the "profit" driver to other means of judging whether a service meets requirements. For all Blair is (rightly) criticized (and I despise him personally), he had the right idea with the "Best Value" programme replacing Compulsory Competitive Tendering in Local Government in the early 2000's. [The down side was that in later years, the Audit Commission was scrapped and the old adage of "what's easy to measure gets measured" (inevitably input and process costs) and the whole concept and importance of output/outcome was lost.]

The way to get people out of their cars is have a public-service oriented railway/integrated transport system so people take the train/tram/bus because it's the desirable option. Car ownership per head in Germany is higher than UK- but public transport use is higher for that reason. Yes, in that system you will on many routes run at a "loss" but overall the societal costs will balance and come down (this is a long-term thing too). British Rail had their heads around this in Sectorisation days, and in some cases history shows that the counter-intuitive approach works e.g. teh Valley Lines in the 1080's were saved by a Regional Manager who trialed increasing the service whilst decreasing fares (the opposite of the standard solution for a loss-making service). Usage soared and the Valley Lines became a well-used local network.

If we had a service orientation we could also have a proper discussion about things like a second person on the train- who could then be seen as a benefit for accessibility and general order/behaviour, which is desirable in service terms and improves ridership. Nor do I see it a problem that so many people "work" for a public sector as it's a better use of time and money than paying them welfare to do nothing.

We need to shift the discussion away from price to societal value. Longer-term, EVs are a really bad way of decarbonising. Trains on the other hand are simple to electrify (and I think we should be pragmatic and increase use of 3rd rail again).

Of course this is a pipe dream because aside from the obvious political andmedia issues, one big barrier to all this is the human desire to empire-build especially in the Civil Service (a MUCH strong role for LTAs and a removal of DfT power/micromanagement would be essential).

TPO
 

Dai Corner

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Interesting comparison as the small remote locations are unlikely to generate the tax revenue to pay for their construction/upkeep...... even in these days of reduced highway maintenance.
The question is whether they need a road AND a railway.
 

TPO

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The question is whether they need a road AND a railway.

I disagree, that's a too-narrow question.

I suggest that the question should be "what access needs do they have and how should they be met." In some situaitons, the answer may well be mix of road AND rail.

TPO
 

RT4038

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I

Railway = access for all
Road = access for some
Road = access for all (by private motor vehicle or by buses or taxis [or walking or cycling for short journeys])
Rail = access for some (those living near stations and wanting to go to places near to other stations)
 

Napier

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Every passenger voluntarily making this lifestyle change won't be coming back to the railways, possibly ever. What a disappointment.
Can you blame them? Let's be honest the service is shocking, especially as most pasenger frnachises are owned by euro rail companies, essentially we are funding the european railways.

They don't care about our railway apart just the asset they can pull fom it, namely revenue.
 

Mikey C

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Trains can only cover a fraction of the journeys that road transport covers.

And by road transport I also include buses, coaches, motorbikes, taxis, lorries and vans, police, ambulances, fire engines, cyclists, walkers, horse riders etc
 

Napier

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Trains can only cover a fraction of the journeys that road transport covers.

And by road transport I also include buses, coaches, motorbikes, taxis, lorries and vans, police, ambulances, fire engines, cyclists, walkers, horse riders etc
Where ever possible I travel by road!
 

miklcct

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Railway EVERY time for me. More than happy for my taxes to take that direction ;)
I prefer a motorway over a stopping service on a railway. A non-stop motorway bus is much nicer than dozen of stops on a metro.
 

43066

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Railway EVERY time for me. More than happy for my taxes to take that direction ;)

Agreed. You get a better class of people using trains than buses etc., and trains go pretty much everywhere it’s worth going to in this country.
 

Dai Corner

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Agreed. You get a better class of people using trains than buses etc., and trains go pretty much everywhere it’s worth going to in this country.
You obviously have a limited view on where is worth going.
 

Dr Hoo

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Agreed. You get a better class of people using trains than buses etc., and trains go pretty much everywhere it’s worth going to in this country.
Err, what about ‘home’ (unless you you live virtually next door to a station that has a fairly comprehensive range and timespan of services)?
 
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