UK Rail Network Reopenings: Realistic Prospects versus ‘Pie in the Sky’

[Bald Rick]

Having been involved in a number of proposed new line projects, I can help here.

The projects likely to proceed are :

EWR (certain Oxford - Bedford, 70% chance Bedford - Cambridge)
Northumberland Line (certain)
Portishead (90% chance)
Fawley Branch (50% chance)
Sheffield - Chesterfield via Barrow Hill (50%) (oddly one that rarely features on these pages)
Ivanhoe (30%)

The rest - less than a 10% chance.

Line reopenings are an extremely popular policy on the constituency level for politicians.

For politicians, yes. Albeit not all of them.

consistent budget for re-openings allowing around 10 track miles of new line each year, would be extremely popular politically,

For politicians, yes, but not all of them.

There are also some very significant downsides for local politicians, as those members and councillors along EWR from Bedford to Cambridge are finding out.

especially if initial investment was directed at swing seats

This I object to. The industry is trying very hard to persuade politicians to butt out of the railway, as Mark Harper acknowledged last night. Deciding where new transport links based on the potential effect on voting intentions, as opposed to actual need and sociologist-economic benefit, is the worst kind of interference.

And this is where reusing old railway lines has a huge advantage over other new transport infrastructure, built on "green" land. People who would be very NIMBY about something completely new, driven across open fields and changing the view, are much less resistant to utilising existing trackbed that is already part of the landscape.

You’d be surprised. If you’ve got a new railway being built at the bottom of your garden (or in some cases through your house) it makes not one jot of difference whether it is all new or a railway that existed 60 years ago. At least that is my experience from the projects I’ve been involved in.

EWR was never officially closed merely OOU for several decades!!

It was (and is) east of Bedford!

Generally it would not be more than around 5 lines per region that are viable so could be a 20 year programme with annual funding in the region of £150million.

3-4 miles a year? thought you said 10 miles?

Braintree - Stansted is a good idea but the cost of double tracking the airport tunnel would make it unviable unless it could be done without that.

It’s not a second tunnel that makes that proposal unviable. (It wouldn’t be needed anyway). It’s the lack of sufficient benefits to offset the half billion quid it would cost to build the line itself that’s the issue. Besides over half of it would be on new alignment.

 

[zwk500]

Having been involved in a number of proposed new line projects, I can help here.

The projects likely to proceed are :

EWR (certain Oxford - Bedford, 70% chance Bedford - Cambridge)
Northumberland Line (certain)

To be fair to these two, construction is currently happening! (except Bletchley-Cambridge).

Portishead (90% chance)
Fawley Branch (50% chance)
Sheffield - Chesterfield via Barrow Hill (50%) (oddly one that rarely features on these pages)

I would say Fawley has a higher chance of the Barrow Hill reopening. Barrow Hill requires slots into Sheffield Midland station to make the service viable, which so far haven't been identified. Fawley did at least have an identified standard-hour pattern (albeit on an old timetable (The then Dec22, post Soton Freight lengthening, IIRC), and no Peak testing or depot moves). AFAICT Barrow Hill has largely gone cold but Fawley has moved through public consultation.

 

[Bevan Price]

I don't know which lines - but I suspect that by the 2040s/2050s, a few old lines may be resurrected and probably with electric operation - although maybe not all being totally on the original alignments. By that time, the need to cut use of fossil fuels will be considered more important than economics / cost-benefit analysis, etc. - - and it will have been recognised that battery power makes only a minor contribution to that aim.

 

[muddythefish]

Having been involved in a number of proposed new line projects, I can help here.

The projects likely to proceed are :

EWR (certain Oxford - Bedford, 70% chance Bedford - Cambridge)
Northumberland Line (certain)
Portishead (90% chance)
Fawley Branch (50% chance)
Sheffield - Chesterfield via Barrow Hill (50%) (oddly one that rarely features on these pages)
Ivanhoe (30%)

Disappointing not to see Tavistock on your list. It's been mooted for many years but never seems to make any progress. Wasn't a housebuilder given permission to develop only on the basis that the rail link was restored? Either way, it seems as far away as ever

 

[Bald Rick]

I don't know which lines - but I suspect that by the 2040s/2050s, a few old lines may be resurrected and probably with electric operation - although maybe not all being totally on the original alignments. By that time, the need to cut use of fossil fuels will be considered more important than economics / cost-benefit analysis, etc. - - and it will have been recognised that battery power makes only a minor contribution to that aim.

By the 2040s/50s almost every car on the road will be battery powered electric, making a very significant cut in the use of fossil fuels…

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Feb 2023 ==

Disappointing not to see Tavistock on your list. It's been mooted for many years but never seems to make any progress. Wasn't a housebuilder given permission to develop only on the basis that the rail link was restored? Either way, it seems as far away as ever

The South West has had a lot of money committed on new / improved railway - Okehampton, Portishead, the Cornwall ‘Metro’, Marsh Barton, Wellington, Cullompton. “Levelling up” needs to see at least some cash spent elsewhere.

 

[fishwomp]

But the lines closed a long time ago and those reasons don't necessarily apply now. For example, 50-60 years ago, when most lines were closed, Cambridge was a sleepy University City with no rampant economic growth and no congestion - things are different now, yet other people ignore what has changed.

.. and lines like St Ives branch from Cambridge were still in situ and used as late as 1991 (or at least to Fenstanton) and now are the busway. The damage was as recent as 30 years ago.

 

[Magdalia]

The projects likely to proceed are :

EWR (certain Oxford - Bedford, 70% chance Bedford - Cambridge)

I'd agree with that, though I suspect that we have arrived at 70% by different routes!

There are also some very significant downsides for local politicians, as those members and councillors along EWR from Bedford to Cambridge are finding out.

In and around Cambridge there are significant downsides for MPs and councillors in doing almost anything about local transport, and that includes the do nothing option too. No options are easy, and in the end, the rule in Cambridge is that it is the University that gets what it wants.

 

[Philip]

I thought Sheffield to Chesterfield via Barrow Hil is already open but used mainly by freight services, assuming this is 'the old road'?

 

[rapmastaj]

Can you count the Henbury loop in Bristol? I realise the line is already in use for freight and occasional passenger diversions, but AFAIK it has no regular passenger service.

Given the urgent need to cut car use in the face of climate change, air pollution, and all the other harms it creates, I remain hopeful that once the political situation improves and the railway industry somehow manages to get costs under control, other reopenings will be brought forward. E.g. Tavistock - Devon CC has been very successful at promoting rail reopenings and clearly have a strategy that works.

And no, electric cars are not a panacea. They still cause air pollution from brake and tyre wear, road deaths, noise, congestion, health problems from inactivity, social isolation, poor land use, and all of the other problems cars create. Even including carbon emissions if the grid isn't fully decarbonised.

 

[Mikey C]

Reopening old lines is obviously going to be a popular on a rail forum, but I think some people somewhat overestimate how much the general public care. It's a good soundbite for local MPs but there will be many things much higher on the agenda when it comes to election time.

Rail investment should be focused on the strengths of railways, long distance passenger and freight, and short-distance, high volume urban passengers. Not reopening bucolic branch lines for the sake of it, which cost a fortune and achieve sod all

Running decent bus services would be a far more popular first step, at a fraction of the cost, and in a fraction of the time to get up and running, for many of the proposed reopenings

Upgrading existing lines to improve speed and reliability AND lengthen platforms is likely to give a better return anyway. There are a number of lines restricted to short trains because of this.

 

[fishwomp]

Sheffield - Chesterfield via Barrow Hill (50%) (oddly one that rarely features on these pages)

I don't understand this one - it's already a regular diversionary (+parliamentary) - and I can't see a decent opportunity to open a station on it anywhere large to justify a proper service that way. fairly safe to assume the Darnall - Chesterfield demand is pretty low etc..? It also causes more traffic on the 2-track eastern entrance to Midland.

 

[YorksLad12]

Barrow Hill requires slots into Sheffield Midland station to make the service viable, which so far haven't been identified.

I don't understand this one - it's already a regular diversionary (+parliamentary) - and I can't see a decent opportunity to open a station on it anywhere large to justify a proper service that way. fairly safe to assume the Darnall - Chesterfield demand is pretty low etc..? It also causes more traffic on the 2-track eastern entrance to Midland.

It's a cunning ploy, they're playing the long game. When the northern throat of Sheffield Midland becomes too congested, the cry will go out "We need to reopen Victoria!", closely followed by "And run trains through to Penistone again!"

 

[Irascible]

The South West has had a lot of money committed on new / improved railway - Okehampton, Portishead, the Cornwall ‘Metro’, Marsh Barton, Wellington, Cullompton. “Levelling up” needs to see at least some cash spent elsewhere.

One might argue that just illustrates how far behind the region has slipped ( those of us west of it might grumble about including Portishead in the area too ) - but Tavistock seems to be in the not-sure-it's-worth-it bucket still, I guess.

Is there anywhere mothballed with track removed because it'd need replacing anyway - ala Leamside - that's likely to come back to life, or was track removal actually a way of reducing the likelihood? ( what happens to the signalling in those cases too )

 

[Bald Rick]

I don't understand this one - it's already a regular diversionary (+parliamentary) - and I can't see a decent opportunity to open a station on it anywhere large to justify a proper service that way. fairly safe to assume the Darnall - Chesterfield demand is pretty low etc..? It also causes more traffic on the 2-track eastern entrance to Midland.

It's a cunning ploy, they're playing the long game. When the northern throat of Sheffield Midland becomes too congested, the cry will go out "We need to reopen Victoria!", closely followed by "And run trains through to Penistone again!"

AIUI, that’s the plan. Although I haven’t seen the very latest developments.

 

[zwk500]

AIUI, that’s the plan. Although I haven’t seen the very latest developments.

Given there's already a tram route into the city centre from Halfway very close to the railway I don't really see the value in reopening Victoria.

 

[steamybrian]

Has there ever been a route completely closed with rails lifted and then reopened in England, like the Borders railway in Scotland?

Blackfriars to Farringdon
Broad Street to Dalston Western Jn was closed and has been reopened between Dalston Western Junction and Shoreditch
Surrey Canal Jn to Old Kent Road Jn (part of the East London Line)
Fawkham Junction to Southfleet was closed and reopened as part of HS1

Tyne and Wear Metro Sunderland to Hylton..?

 

[stuu]

Running decent bus services would be a far more popular first step, at a fraction of the cost, and in a fraction of the time to get up and running, for many of the proposed reopenings

Upgrading existing lines to improve speed and reliability AND lengthen platforms is likely to give a better return anyway. There are a number of lines restricted to short trains because of this.

Very true.

Despite me being firmly on the side of rail in general, it is bizarre how rail is so favoured vs buses, even where rail is not the most sensible solution. Locally to me, Wellington (Somerset), is fairly likely to get a new station at a cost of at least £15m. This will do next to nothing for the vast majority of journeys people make on a daily basis, which are mostly to Taunton. The station in Taunton is badly located for the major employers and places people actually go to, and an hourly train to somewhere miles from where they want to go isn't going to tempt many people out of their cars. Yet there is zero chance of £15m being spent on improving the bus service, which does go to the college, hospital and town centre and is currently a double decker every 15 minutes all day. There is no logic to investment, no obvious goal

 

[ac6000cw]

Blackfriars to Farringdon
Broad Street to Dalston Western Jn was closed and has been reopened between Dalston Western Junction and Shoreditch
Surrey Canal Jn to Old Kent Road Jn (part of the East London Line)
Fawkham Junction to Southfleet was closed and reopened as part of HS1

Tyne and Wear Metro Sunderland to Hylton..?

Birmingham Snow Hill station re-opened. Snow Hill to Wolverhampton as West Midlands Metro, plus heavy rail from Moor Street through Snow Hill to Smethwick (although some of that was in use as a dead-end freight branch from Smethwick West).

 

[Bald Rick]

Very true.

Despite me being firmly on the side of rail in general, it is bizarre how rail is so favoured vs buses, even where rail is not the most sensible solution. Locally to me, Wellington (Somerset), is fairly likely to get a new station at a cost of at least £15m. This will do next to nothing for the vast majority of journeys people make on a daily basis, which are mostly to Taunton. The station in Taunton is badly located for the major employers and places people actually go to, and an hourly train to somewhere miles from where they want to go isn't going to tempt many people out of there cars. Yet there is zero chance of £15m being spent on improving the bus service, which does go to the college, hospital and town centre and is currently a double decker every 15 minutes all day. There is no logic to investment, no obvious goal

Exactly. Tavistock is another very good example of this. For the price of the next stage of feasibility work for the new line, Tavistock could have a non stop coach service to Plymouth (serving the hospital, station, and city centre), start it in April and run it for 3 years, and that assumes no fares income.

 

[A0]

I would argue against that on the basis that it doesnt really

I would agree with you. It's sort of using almost 20 miles of it - about the same amount as is in preserved hands.

Looking at Haverhill-Cambridge, the route could easily justify a railway along the previous alignment.

"Justfiy" on what basis ? Certainly not economic or financial.

Given that it the 4 tracking on the cambridge end as part og EWR will unlock capacity there and there are major employment sites along the line (Granta Park/Babraham research Park and these can provide funding along with the economic benefits for Haverhill (28,000 pop, 10+ miles currently from nearest station by road) along with the line providing a link to the surrounding area.

I suggest you get a fresh map and a trip to Specsavers. From west to east, here's what's in the way:

Shelford: area of the junction has been built over, farm building on formation, old bridge on A1301 which probably doesn't meet modern clearance requirements.
Sawston: formation built over with new industrial units and more being built Babraham Road.
Little Abington: A11 / A505 junction all over the old formation and an industrial unit there.
Linton: Formation built over with a mix of housing and industrial.
Bartlow: Station now in private hands as residential.
Haverhill - No route into town, so anything would be on the edge of the town. Appears the A1307 has been realigned over the old formation in parts.

A population of ~ 30,000 isn't enough. Corby's double that, had an existing line through it and with an hourly service was seeing usage figures of about 300k / year before Covid. Compare that with Kettering (1m) or Market Harborough (900k) at the same time.

 

[Irascible]

Despite me being firmly on the side of rail in general, it is bizarre how rail is so favoured vs buses, even where rail is not the most sensible solution. Locally to me, Wellington (Somerset), is fairly likely to get a new station at a cost of at least £15m. This will do next to nothing for the vast majority of journeys people make on a daily basis, which are mostly to Taunton. The station in Taunton is badly located for the major employers and places people actually go to, and an hourly train to somewhere miles from where they want to go isn't going to tempt many people out of their cars. Yet there is zero chance of £15m being spent on improving the bus service, which does go to the college, hospital and town centre and is currently a double decker every 15 minutes all day. There is no logic to investment, no obvious goal

I've been wondering about that one too - Cullompton makes sense because it's growing ridiculously fast as a dormitary for Exeter, maybe the develoipers are banking on Wellington residents also commuting to Exeter?

That'd pay for another loop on the Devon end of the WoE, wouldn't it?

 

[Mikey C]

Very true.

Despite me being firmly on the side of rail in general, it is bizarre how rail is so favoured vs buses, even where rail is not the most sensible solution. Locally to me, Wellington (Somerset), is fairly likely to get a new station at a cost of at least £15m. This will do next to nothing for the vast majority of journeys people make on a daily basis, which are mostly to Taunton. The station in Taunton is badly located for the major employers and places people actually go to, and an hourly train to somewhere miles from where they want to go isn't going to tempt many people out of their cars. Yet there is zero chance of £15m being spent on improving the bus service, which does go to the college, hospital and town centre and is currently a double decker every 15 minutes all day. There is no logic to investment, no obvious goal

A number of the closed branch lines don't go where people want to go to now. Indeed many were opened for freight, not passenger use.

 

[zwk500]

I've been wondering about that one too - Cullompton makes sense because it's growing ridiculously fast as a dormitary for Exeter, maybe the develoipers are banking on Wellington residents also commuting to Exeter?

I'd be slightly nervous that adding a 4/5 minute stop per station into existing trains will reduce their competitiveness against the motorway, while adding additional trains would put greater stress on St David's capacity and wherever they get sent to.

That'd pay for another loop on the Devon end of the WoE, wouldn't it?

Very unlikely. Although a major development of Cranbrook may justify doubling the section between Pinhoe and Honiton.

 

[Bartsimho]

I don't understand this one - it's already a regular diversionary (+parliamentary) - and I can't see a decent opportunity to open a station on it anywhere large to justify a proper service that way. fairly safe to assume the Darnall - Chesterfield demand is pretty low etc..? It also causes more traffic on the 2-track eastern entrance to Midland.

There are plans which have some funding to build a large housing estate on the site of the Old Staveley Works and part of this is a HS2 depot which connects using part of the old Staveley-Clowne Branch line. This does hang of Phase 2b being done. The line itself is in very good condition and as you said is a diversionary into Sheffield if the Dronfield-Dore and Totley tunnel is closed for whatever reason. Based on how I can see the condition it would take some re-signalling to re-open.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Feb 2023 ==

Very true.

Despite me being firmly on the side of rail in general, it is bizarre how rail is so favoured vs buses, even where rail is not the most sensible solution. Locally to me, Wellington (Somerset), is fairly likely to get a new station at a cost of at least £15m. This will do next to nothing for the vast majority of journeys people make on a daily basis, which are mostly to Taunton. The station in Taunton is badly located for the major employers and places people actually go to, and an hourly train to somewhere miles from where they want to go isn't going to tempt many people out of their cars. Yet there is zero chance of £15m being spent on improving the bus service, which does go to the college, hospital and town centre and is currently a double decker every 15 minutes all day. There is no logic to investment, no obvious goal

I think Rail is favoured to Busses partly as Bus travel is looked down upon as even more unreliable, uncomfortable and long with a million stops creating a large variance in travel time.


And something in general to add if it was down to current feasibility studies there would be no railways in this country outside of internal industrial site railways. Any freight would just be in lorries and all people would have cars to move around as they place a lesser burden on Governments. Transport in London itself would be only busses with maybe some tramways.

 

[stuu]

I've been wondering about that one too - Cullompton makes sense because it's growing ridiculously fast as a dormitary for Exeter, maybe the develoipers are banking on Wellington residents also commuting to Exeter?

That'd pay for another loop on the Devon end of the WoE, wouldn't it?

Wellington has got a lot of housebuilding happening, and planned, but the station is being led by the council. It seems madness that we would spend that money on something that only helps a small minority of people's daily journeys - according to to the census only 22% of employed people travel more than 10km to work. I would bet a lot of those journeys aren't easily transferrable to rail either, so the target market is 10% of daily journeys at absolute best. Again, what's the goal? Do we want people out of their cars or not?

 

[Mikey C]

I think Rail is favoured to Busses partly as Bus travel is looked down upon as even more unreliable, uncomfortable and long with a million stops creating a large variance in travel time.

But what's more attractive between

1) Hourly train, going from a station half a mile outside the town up a hill to the destination 3/4 mile outside the town
2) Bus every 15 minutes going from town centre to town centre via the suburbs where people live. Past the new out of town retail park, football ground and hospital.

Once you take in the whole journey time, the time benefit from short distance train travel can easily be lost. Obviously some railway stations are better located, but a lot aren't because of history or geography. And towns today aren't the same as the ones back in the 50s and 60s when the lines closed

 

[Mag_seven]

A reminder that this thread is for the discussion of UK Rail Network Reopenings.

If anyone wants to discuss anything else then they are welcome to start an new thread elsewhere.

thanks

​

 

[The exile]

Very true.

Despite me being firmly on the side of rail in general, it is bizarre how rail is so favoured vs buses, even where rail is not the most sensible solution. Locally to me, Wellington (Somerset), is fairly likely to get a new station at a cost of at least £15m. This will do next to nothing for the vast majority of journeys people make on a daily basis, which are mostly to Taunton. The station in Taunton is badly located for the major employers and places people actually go to, and an hourly train to somewhere miles from where they want to go isn't going to tempt many people out of their cars. Yet there is zero chance of £15m being spent on improving the bus service, which does go to the college, hospital and town centre and is currently a double decker every 15 minutes all day. There is no logic to investment, no obvious goal

If it’s already a double-decker every 15 minutes, it suggests there’s little need /scope for improvement, or if there is, it can fund that improvement itself.

 

[RT4038]

If it’s already a double-decker every 15 minutes, it suggests there’s little need /scope for improvement, or if there is, it can fund that improvement itself.

That rather depends - a 15 minute double decker service may not be making much profit, and unable to (say) fund improvements to evening or weekend services, or route extensions outwith the core service etc.

 

[stuu]

If it’s already a double-decker every 15 minutes, it suggests there’s little need /scope for improvement, or if there is, it can fund that improvement itself.

Are there any examples of bus companies making enough money they can pay for new bus lanes or improving junctions - things that make the service more reliable?