More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[Mordac]

HS2 would benefit Birmingham far more than Mac, no wonder he isn't so keen on it.

 

[Nottingham59]

he was much more focused on east-west rail links and not that bothered about HS2

That would make sense. If your priority is to realise the agglomeration benefits that will come from integrating the Liverpool-Manchester-Leeds metropolitan area, then NPR is far more important than HS2.

 

[snowball]

HS2 would benefit Birmingham far more than Mac, no wonder he isn't so keen on it.

I assume you mean Manc.

But HS2 to Birmingham is already happening beyond all doubt, so it would be stupid if his unkeenness resulted in phase 2 (or phases 1b and 2) being dropped, which would result in a worse outcome for Manchester.

Furthermore there's no way NPR would happen without HS2.

Furthermore if he keeps insisting on an underground station the most likely outcome is that everything north of Crewe is dropped.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

In an ideal world, Burnham wants everything, but particularly east-west HS3 (supported by the other northern metro mayors).
But he can see rail budgets being capped - we already have a notional £96 billion cap on midlands/north rail infrastructure in the IRP.
What he doesn't want is HS2 sucking out that budget, leaving scraps for HS3/NPR/TRU.
It's an all-too-familiar situation with (eg) WCRM, Crossrail and NR's electrification project overruns damaging improvement plans elsewhere.
We know HS2 will reach at least Crewe, and stakeholders like Burnham will be desperate to ensure that it sticks close to budget and not rob Peter to pay Paul.

On the Crewe-Manchester leg, there are now details of how the road network will change to accommodate HS2 at Manchester Airport.
I don't pretend to know much about it, but I find it odd that the Bill going through parliament doesn't already include these details.
It will reconfigure the M56 near the Airport and provide links to the new HS2 station.
Anybody local will know the nightmare that is the current set of roadworks in the area, just to add a 4th lane to the motorway.

HS2 paves the way for future growth and development around Manchester Airport

HS2 Ltd has today (8th February) set out plans which could radically improve capacity at Junction 6 of the M56 to support future growth and development aspirations around the proposed new HS2/NPR station at Manchester Airport.

mediacentre.hs2.org.uk

Initial concepts for the new junction would see the M56 realigned to the south and Junction 6 converted to a roundabout junction, with the HS2 railway line running in a shallow tunnel underneath. Link roads would connect the new junction to the existing local road network.
The proposals would also see the existing roundabouts at Junction 6 converted to signal-controlled junctions, and a direct link provided to the combined HS2/NPR station with a flyover crossing Hale Road and running parallel to the M56. To improve the local road network, the Runger Lane/Avro Way junction would also be upgraded to a signal-controlled operation.

 

[Dave_Cardboard]

On the Crewe-Manchester leg, there are now details of how the road network will change to accommodate HS2 at Manchester Airport.
I don't pretend to know much about it, but I find it odd that the Bill going through parliament doesn't already include these details.

The Phase 2B Bill includes plans for reconfiguring the M56 junction. The recent announcements are for a change of design. Map of the original scheme below. I have not yet found any maps of the revised scheme.

In his opening remarks to the HS2 (Phase2B) Bill Committee (Commons,) council for HS2 remarked that they expect to deposit a second set of "Additional Provisions" (AP2) to the Bill some time around July 2023 (ie before Parliament's summer recess.) I'm guessing AP2 might include the proposed change as it may entail some additional/amended land take.

Maps below, one is a clip from the mapbooks submitted with the bill, the other (with the red lines) shows some of the "GIS Data" (also submitted with the Bill) overlaid on a GE image which I trust readers may find a bit easier to comprehend as it's a bit less "busy" than the mapbook. The red lines are just the "edge of carriageway" dataset in the GIS Data (lots of detail such as earthworks, landscaping, etc. I have chosen not to show for clarity.)

From the HS2 press release, I'm guessing some maps may be made available once their webinar has occurred, if not before.

 

[Nottingham59]

It will reconfigure the M56 near the Airport and provide links to the new HS2 station.

My understanding is the construction of the HS2 Airport station was dependent on a third party (i.e. Manchester Airport) funding it. Is that still the case? As far as I can see, the Airport has no incentive to fund anything until the NPR links to Liverpool and Leeds are built. They already have a rail link to Manchester, and only a tiny proportion of their passengers will be heading to London.

 

[najaB]

As far as I can see, the Airport has no incentive to fund anything until the NPR links to Liverpool and Leeds are built. They already have a rail link to Manchester, and only a tiny proportion of their passengers will be heading to London.

To London, I agree. But Manchester Airport is ahead of Birmingham in terms of long-haul routes offered and I can see a push to concentrate passenger operations there and promote Birmingham more for cargo and short-haul only. Especially if there is through ticketing (and maybe even baggage drop at Curzon Street).

 

[eldomtom2]

To London, I agree. But Manchester Airport is ahead of Birmingham in terms of long-haul routes offered and I can see a push to concentrate passenger operations there and promote Birmingham more for cargo and short-haul only. Especially if there is through ticketing (and maybe even baggage drop at Curzon Street).

How many short-haul routes are going to be left when HS2 is done?

 

[Tezza1978]

How many short-haul routes are going to be left when HS2 is done?

I would imagine there would be plenty of bucket and spade flights /city break flights to Europe still. The low cost airlines arent going to stop using Birmingham for those

 

[PsychoMouse]

I would imagine there would be plenty of bucket and spade flights /city break flights to Europe still. The low cost airlines arent going to stop using Birmingham for those

If anything it's going to attract a lot more business and leisure travel to BHX, with it only being half an hour or so away from central London (comparable with Gatwick and Stansted Expresses).

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

From the HS2 press release, I'm guessing some maps may be made available once their webinar has occurred, if not before.

Do we yet know how passengers will reach the airport from the HS2/NPR station?
The airport is such a rabbit warren these days, and the HS2/NPR station will be "near" T2 but a long way from T1/3, certainly not walkable.
I spent an unpleasant evening recently navigating a car from the Clayton Hotel (itself quite difficult to find in a car) to T2 with absolutely no signs (turns out you follow signs to T1, then The Station and then T2).

 

[najaB]

How many short-haul routes are going to be left when HS2 is done?

There will still be demand for flights to southern and eastern Europe.

 

[Trainbike46]

We have them at Fratton every Portsmouth home game when there's 3000 people waiting to get on the train in the station car park and the best GWR can do for the first train to Southampton for 45 mins is a 2 car 165. Strictly speaking they may actually be agency staff.

I'm pretty sure it is not unusual to have staff working as crowd managers at stations near event venues around the end time of the event. Great Northern has them at Alexandra Palace station when gigs end, and I'm sure other stadiums get them too. It's just essential for safety, tbh.


To the people stating the UK railway is unwilling to learn from other countries, it clearly does learn things from other countries (though I agree that some people on this forum make it sound like they don't!), whether that is from getting rolling stock design expertise from other countries, such as the Hitachi A-train, the Stadler Flirt, or the many german, french and italian designs incorporated into our trains. Getting back to HS2, the decision to build to UIC loading gauge and to require the first operator to have experience operating a HS service abroad clearly show intention to learn, and adapt lesson to a UK context.

 

[Roast Veg]

Do we yet know how passengers will reach the airport from the HS2/NPR station?
The airport is such a rabbit warren these days, and the HS2/NPR station will be "near" T2 but a long way from T1/3, certainly not walkable.
I spent an unpleasant evening recently navigating a car from the Clayton Hotel (itself quite difficult to find in a car) to T2 with absolutely no signs (turns out you follow signs to T1, then The Station and then T2).

At one stage there was to be a tram extension that would loop back to Roundthorn tram stop under the M56. I don't know if those plans survive.

 

[Tetchytyke]

The airport is such a rabbit warren these days, and the HS2/NPR station will be "near" T2 but a long way from T1/3, certainly not walkable.

Manchester Airport are intending to close T1 and T3 by the end of 2025, so that won't matter.

It's all a moot point anyway. There's no chance HS2 will make it to Manchester on its own tracks. It'll get curtailed at Lichfield. "The North" will be told that this is enough to give them faster journey times, and the overspend will be marketed as "levelling up the north".

Cynical? Moi?

How many short-haul routes are going to be left when HS2 is done?

Most of them. HS2 is great for London- although the premium fares required to fund the budget overruns will price most people off it- but not for anywhere else. Manchester Airport doesn't have a huge amount of domestic traffic and what domestic traffic it has is either to Scotland or the South Coast.

 

[paul1609]

Manchester Airport are intending to close T1 and T3 by the end of 2025, so that won't matter.

It's all a moot point anyway. There's no chance HS2 will make it to Manchester on its own tracks. It'll get curtailed at Lichfield. "The North" will be told that this is enough to give them faster journey times, and the overspend will be marketed as "levelling up the north".

Cynical? Moi?



Most of them. HS2 is great for London- although the premium fares required to fund the budget overruns will price most people off it- but not for anywhere else. Manchester Airport doesn't have a huge amount of domestic traffic and what domestic traffic it has is either to Scotland or the South Coast.

I dont think any of the south coast-manchester routes have survived covid. Think the only southeast-manchester route is heathrow and thats for connections basically.

 

[Meerkat]

HS2 is great for London- although the premium fares required to fund the budget overruns will price most people off it

You realise that doesn’t make sense - how can a railway line only be good for one end?
thousands more seats to sell and they will price people out of them?
They might price people off the end to end WCML and Chiltern services (or slow them down) to fill HS2 but they wont get their money back running empty trains up and down.

 

[Roast Veg]

You realise that doesn’t make sense - how can a railway line only be good for one end?

As you're quite rightly suggesting, it can't. Either the jobs move north or the people move north, or (most likely) a combination of the two. Either one is great for the Merseyside/Greater Manchester/West Yorkshire megalopolis.

 

[zwk500]

As you're quite rightly suggesting, it can't. Either the jobs move north or the people move north, or (most likely) a combination of the two. Either one is great for the Merseyside/Greater Manchester/West Yorkshire megalopolis.

The people moving north and the jobs remaining south may not be great for those areas - pressure on houses, services, etc but lots of money remaining spent in London rather than in the new dormitory areas. WFH may mitigate this of course.

 

[najaB]

The people moving north and the jobs remaining south may not be great for those areas - pressure on houses, services, etc but lots of money remaining spent in London rather than in the new dormitory areas. WFH may mitigate this of course.

Other way around: people spend money where they live, moreso than where they work.

 

[zwk500]

Other way around: people spend money where they live, moreso than where they work.

Businesses spend lots more money than individuals, and they tend to spend it closer where their offices are located.

 

[najaB]

Businesses spend lots more money than individuals, and they tend to spend it closer where their offices are located.

If you're speaking office-based businesses, very little of that money is spent locally.

 

[Greybeard33]

At one stage there was to be a tram extension that would loop back to Roundthorn tram stop under the M56. I don't know if those plans survive.

There are plans for a Metrolink extension from the existing Airport station through a tunnel to a new stop at T2. The plans for the HS2 station include passive provision for a Metrolink stop above the HS platforms. This would be linked with the T2 stop by a bridge over the M56 and form part of the long-planned Western Loop line to Roundthorn via Wythenshawe hospital. However, the Government refused to include powers to build the HS2 Metrolink stop in the Crewe to Manchester Hybrid Bill as GMCA requested, and I don't believe there is yet any funding for it.

I guess the fallback would be a shuttle bus service to T2, using the Thorley Lane bridge over the M56.

 

[plugwash]

How many short-haul routes are going to be left when HS2 is done?

I don't think anyone really knows. It depends on many factors including the price of oil, to what extent politicians decide to clamp down on aviation for environmental reasons.

I don't see HS2 making a huge difference, you will still have to traipse down Euston road and deal with the Eurostart checkin BS.

 

[Tetchytyke]

You realise that doesn’t make sense - how can a railway line only be good for one end?

Sorry, to clarify my point was that HS2 is good for [getting to] London, not that HS2 will just benefit London. Apologies that I was unclear.

Although the latter is true too- the WCML only has crowding issues south of Tring.

Other way around: people spend money where they live, moreso than where they work.

In some ways, yes; you hire a builder or a plumber where you live, obviously. But beyond that, I'm not entirely convinced.

That said, HS2 isn't going to make people regularly commute from Manchester to London.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Feb 2023 ==

It depends on many factors including the price of oil, to what extent politicians decide to clamp down on aviation for environmental reasons.

I fully expect the government- of whichever colour- to follow the French example and ban flights from Manchester to London to "encourage" people on to HS2. As in France, the justification will definitely absolutely be the environment and not propping up the revenues of the rail operator.

There aren't many flights from Manchester to London, though, as rail is already competitive on time, so it won't make much difference. If they extend the restrictions on to flights to, say, Southampton or Newquay it'll be different.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Feb 2023 ==

They might price people off the end to end WCML and Chiltern services (or slow them down) to fill HS2 but they wont get their money back running empty trains up and down.

You get more money from one person paying £200 than you do from four people paying £49.

We saw with HS1 how the premium pricing works. They'll do it again.

 

[najaB]

In some ways, yes; you hire a builder or a plumber where you live, obviously. But beyond that, I'm not entirely convinced.

And go to the supermarket, and the cinema, and restaurants, clothes shopping...

 

[Trainbike46]

Sorry, to clarify my point was that HS2 is good for [getting to] London, not that HS2 will just benefit London. Apologies that I was unclear.

Although the latter is true too- the WCML only has crowding issues south of Tring.



In some ways, yes; you hire a builder or a plumber where you live, obviously. But beyond that, I'm not entirely convinced.

That said, HS2 isn't going to make people regularly commute from Manchester to London.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Feb 2023 ==



I fully expect the government- of whichever colour- to follow the French example and ban flights from Manchester to London to "encourage" people on to HS2. As in France, the justification will definitely absolutely be the environment and not propping up the revenues of the rail operator.

There aren't many flights from Manchester to London, though, as rail is already competitive on time, so it won't make much difference. If they extend the restrictions on to flights to, say, Southampton or Newquay it'll be different.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Feb 2023 ==



You get more money from one person paying £200 than you do from four people paying £49.

We saw with HS1 how the premium pricing works. They'll do it again.

As has been pointed out by many people, the business case for HS2 is very different from the one for HS1.

HS1 has a premium service (SE HS and Eurostar) business case. HS2 has a high volume business case. These require different pricing strategies.

In addition, HS2 will have low operational cost, so another reason why this high fares argument is nonsense.

HS2 prices will not follow the same strategy as HS1, and there won't be premium prices (for standard class, that is).

 

[Tetchytyke]

As has been pointed out by many people, the business case for HS2 is very different from the one for HS1.

HS1 has a premium service (SE HS and Eurostar) business case. HS2 has a high volume business case. These require different pricing strategies

If, as with HS1, track access fees are higher then fares will be higher.

I don't see much difference between domestic HS1 and HS2. HS1 is a "premium product" by virtue of speed; to ensure this, the classic express services (which weren't much slower) were slowed to a crawl. The same thing will happen on HS2 and the WCML.

However HS2, with more long-distance passengers, will be able to disguise higher prices more easily through the use of Advance tickets.

Fundamentally, you don't repay £150bn by piling it high and selling it cheap.

It'll also be interesting to see if HS2 gets flogged off on the cheap to a private sector investor, as happened with HS1. The cost of building HS1 exceeded the proceeds from the sale of HS1 (yes, I know its a long-lease, a lease which conveniently ends just as the original HS1 infrastructure will be life expired and requiring replacement/refurbishment). And the profit from the track access charges go to the Ontario Teachers Pension Fund.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Feb 2023 ==

And go to the supermarket, and the cinema, and restaurants, clothes shopping...

When I lived in Hemel Hempstead (the stereotypical dormitory town) I did most of that- supermarket shopping excepted- in London. After all, I already had the season ticket.

 

[najaB]

When I lived in Hemel Hempstead (the stereotypical dormitory town) I did most of that- supermarket shopping excepted- in London. After all, I already had the season ticket.

Likely because you had a wider range of options in London that in Hemel Hempstead. Manchester, on the other hand, doesn't lack for choices.

 

[Xavi]

Fundamentally, you don't repay £150bn by piling it high and selling it cheap.

Where do you get £150bn from?