UK Rail Passenger Numbers Discussion

[Facing Back]

Friday is without doubt my favourite day in the office. Train in is Less than half full - there’s even seats available. I often have a whole floor of the office to myself, get loads done. And then the pub later is less busy than Thursday, and I can meet similarly Friday-office friends with more space. Much better than wfh!

I was going to ask why you would go into the office on a Friday if you were the only one there? But then I saw the social bit so fair enough!

 

[Meerkat]

How do you come to that conclusion?

The government will pick the bosses of GBR. They will pick the ones who do what they are told.
And GBR will control everything. You won’t have TOCs trying to invest to grow, and you won’t have TOCs indirectly standing up for their passengers.

 

[Ken H]

The government will pick the bosses of GBR. They will pick the ones who do what they are told.
And GBR will control everything. You won’t have TOCs trying to invest to grow, and you won’t have TOCs indirectly standing up for their passengers.

and there will be less innovation. The railway will stagnate under a cloud of DfT risk aversion.

 

[yorksrob]

GBR would give more government control.
Getting passenger numbers up needs people willing to invest

Or alternatively, it will introduce a layer of decision making railway professionals between the TOC's and the Government, which would be less Government control.

If Fridays are treated as off-peak then there’s no going back, that’s permanently reduced fares and reduced revenue (no government are ever going to force a return to “peaks” on Fridays)

But a few of the people demanding this are also still clinging to the idea that Working From Home is just a fad

It's definitely not a fad. The proof is that Fridays were getting quieter even before the pandemic. There's also the likelihood of more people/companies moving to a four day week.

 

[Rail_Midlands]

TOCs indirectly standing up for their passengers.

First time I'm hearing this. If you could give some examples?

 

[Facing Back]

The government will pick the bosses of GBR. They will pick the ones who do what they are told.
And GBR will control everything. You won’t have TOCs trying to invest to grow, and you won’t have TOCs indirectly standing up for their passengers.

With respect I think that some of that remains to be seen.

I would be surprised if the government did not choose the chairmain, CEO and finance director. After that I will wait and see.

I expect GBR to take a balanced view between cost, revenue and service. What "balanced" means is up to interpretation of course

 

[Iskra]

The problem is that the insufficient capacity at Leeds means all services through Barnsley are restricted to just two coaches - we desperately need more seats on the route but there’s just no way of running longer trains without radical surgery

We know this, it is said often on here, but it simply isn't good enough on a weekend when some of those services are cancelled to run the remainder as two cars. While it was possibly a perfect storm of football fixtures in the area and payday weekend, the situation is beyond a joke when people are being left behind en masse. If the Dearne Valley stopper was 4 car like it often is, that would at least have absorbed some of the Sheffield-Leeds passengers even if it would have been a long journey. Only the Huddersfield stopper was a 3-car 150, everything else was 2 or cancelled yesterday that I saw. When trains are cancelled, they exist, so why not join them to another unit to at least maintain capacity? Previously, we have also seen football specials run to Barnsley. Weekends are when people want to travel currently, but the timetables, working agreements and formations aren't reflecting this, alienating even more customers.

With the slimming down of timetables (and TP often cancelled), and a new platform been brought into use, has any useful capacity been freed up at Leeds that Hallam services could use?

 

[43066]

I was going to ask why you would go into the office on a Friday if you were the only one there? But then I saw the social bit so fair enough!

To get away from your wife/family?!

 

[Bald Rick]

I was going to ask why you would go into the office on a Friday if you were the only one there? But then I saw the social bit so fair enough!

To be honest, I’m a relatively rare attendee at the pub these days. My main reason for choosing Friday is that the journey is so much quieter (and more likely to be punctual), and with a quieter office I am less likely to be interrupted. And then I can justify WFH one day mid week, when the trains are busy and the office is full.

To get away from your wife/family?!

Ahem. That is DEFINITELY not the case. No. Never.

 

[Meerkat]

First time I'm hearing this. If you could give some examples?

I can’t give examples but it’s logical when TOCs have the revenue risk - their interests align if NR/the government wants to do something detrimental to their services.
and their contracts have kept services going - under BR the post 2008 austerity would have seen a slash and burn.

 

[Kite159]

We know this, it is said often on here, but it simply isn't good enough on a weekend when some of those services are cancelled to run the remainder as two cars. While it was possibly a perfect storm of football fixtures in the area and payday weekend, the situation is beyond a joke when people are being left behind en masse. If the Dearne Valley stopper was 4 car like it often is, that would at least have absorbed some of the Sheffield-Leeds passengers even if it would have been a long journey. Only the Huddersfield stopper was a 3-car 150, everything else was 2 or cancelled yesterday that I saw. When trains are cancelled, they exist, so why not join them to another unit to at least maintain capacity? Previously, we have also seen football specials run to Barnsley. Weekends are when people want to travel currently, but the timetables, working agreements and formations aren't reflecting this, alienating even more customers.

With the slimming down of timetables (and TP often cancelled), and a new platform been brought into use, has any useful capacity been freed up at Leeds that Hallam services could use?

And it doesn't help that a 2 coach 195 has fewer seats than a 2 coach 158 which used to run those semi-fasts. I suspect the guards hate overcrowding as much as passengers due to having to fight through the crowds to release the doors

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I'm seeing no signs of it being a fad. It's being adjusted as businesses settle down to working practices which suit them.

I've just been told that we ae seeing some different behaviours from the mass WFH policies. Some businesses are rationalising their office space (we did this a while back) and thinking of shutting non-core spaces they have used as expansion offices. But some are also recognising that tumbleweed on a Friday isn't getting best use of their estate and are discussing ways of rationing Monday and Friday WFH (when they have a hybrid policy) and getting more people out of the office Tue and Wed. In London Thus doesn't seem to be an issue.

We've also seen business which has relied on transient office space looking at policies where more staff are in a main office part of the time. In many areas office space is cheaper and more available and lease terms are more flexible - plus firms need less of it to have an effective presence.

OK its Canary Wharf but HSBC has decided it only needs half of its 45 storey office block in the new world of hybrid working

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hsbc-to-halve-space-for-head-office-sn88bxc5z

What i still dont get is when i was in BR SR when we were trying to balance the books for NSE we were repeatedly told running the peak rush hour was the real challenge with poorly utilised rolling stock and crew resources. I know the privatised operators probably got smarter but seems to me a reduced rush hour should be an opportunity to save costs. This may take a while to realise as operators rightsize fleet and resources but what i dont see is NR cutting its infrastructure costs in response to reduced traffic. Yes some maintenance requirements have to happen irrespective of train movements but much of the track maintenance is based on tonne miles so less movements should mean less intervention and maybe that will be challenged for the next control period.
The current structure certainly isn't conducive to finding the sweet spot but the industry wont win any friends in the Treasury until it shows it can get costs under control but it seems the act as though that is DfTs responsibility.

 

[JonathanH]

I know the privatised operators probably got smarter but seems to me a reduced rush hour should be an opportunity to save costs

The issue that gets brought up is that capacity is still needed for the midweek days, so those costs can't easily be saved, and the revenue is lower.

This may take a while to realise as operators rightsize fleet and resources but what i dont see is NR cutting its infrastructure costs in response to reduced traffic.

Is that straightforward to manage? Does that flow through to less maintenance being done on the infrastructure, or not needing to do major works?

The railway has saved on the costs of huge infrastructure projects like ten-year project at Croydon and Crossrail 2 that were never funded, but doesn't appear to have reduced the level of weekend work, and therefore costs.

Cutting back on maintenance must be a difficult decision, particularly if it led to a reduction in safety.

 

[Ken H]

OK its Canary Wharf but HSBC has decided it only needs half of its 45 storey office block in the new world of hybrid working

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hsbc-to-halve-space-for-head-office-sn88bxc5z

What i still dont get is when i was in BR SR when we were trying to balance the books for NSE we were repeatedly told running the peak rush hour was the real challenge with poorly utilised rolling stock and crew resources. I know the privatised operators probably got smarter but seems to me a reduced rush hour should be an opportunity to save costs. This may take a while to realise as operators rightsize fleet and resources but what i dont see is NR cutting its infrastructure costs in response to reduced traffic. Yes some maintenance requirements have to happen irrespective of train movements but much of the track maintenance is based on tonne miles so less movements should mean less intervention and maybe that will be challenged for the next control period.
The current structure certainly isn't conducive to finding the sweet spot but the industry wont win any friends in the Treasury until it shows it can get costs under control but it seems the act as though that is DfTs responsibility.

The big hit will be investment. Fewer carriages, less and simpler signalling, simpler layouts. Prob staffing costs too.
Running a steady state is cheaper than bug peaks and troughs.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The issue that gets brought up is that capacity is still needed for the midweek days, so those costs can't easily be saved, and the revenue is lower.

Not at the level it was though and might be a good idea to have a few PIXC (passengers in excess of capacity) trains to attempt to coerce some behavioural change on passengers

Is that straightforward to manage? Does that flow through to less maintenance being done on the infrastructure, or not needing to do major works?

Track is categorised from 1A to 6 based on EMGTPA (Equivalent Million Gross Tonnes per Annum) which adjusts by stock type damage done. Category 1A is the highest (125mph) to Category 6 is for 20mph or less. So if levels of traffic drop and EMGTPA falls below a category threshold NR could downgrade to that category and adopt lower levels of mtce like changed patrolling, track measurement train running and reduced tamping. Of course it only helps if a route is close to a boundary between categories.

The railway has saved on the costs of huge infrastructure projects like ten-year project at Croydon and Crossrail 2 that were never funded, but doesn't appear to have reduced the level of weekend work, and therefore costs.

As you say those projects were never funded and Croydon was a pipe dream they could have get half the benefit by equipping it with ARS .

Cutting back on maintenance must be a difficult decision, particularly if it led to a reduction in safety.

Id say on some routes they're taking more access with extra blockades but not eliminating the cyclic possessions although now sch4 has no meaning and operators don't have to woryy about fare income anymore the incentive for reducing possessions has been lost

 

[Ken H]

OK its Canary Wharf but HSBC has decided it only needs half of its 45 storey office block in the new world of hybrid working

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hsbc-to-halve-space-for-head-office-sn88bxc5z

What i still dont get is when i was in BR SR when we were trying to balance the books for NSE we were repeatedly told running the peak rush hour was the real challenge with poorly utilised rolling stock and crew resources. I know the privatised operators probably got smarter but seems to me a reduced rush hour should be an opportunity to save costs. This may take a while to realise as operators rightsize fleet and resources but what i dont see is NR cutting its infrastructure costs in response to reduced traffic. Yes some maintenance requirements have to happen irrespective of train movements but much of the track maintenance is based on tonne miles so less movements should mean less intervention and maybe that will be challenged for the next control period.
The current structure certainly isn't conducive to finding the sweet spot but the industry wont win any friends in the Treasury until it shows it can get costs under control but it seems the act as though that is DfTs responsibility.

The big hit will be investment. Fewer carriages, less and simpler signalling, simpler layouts. Prob staffing costs too.
Running a steady state is cheaper than bug peaks and troughs.

 

[Krokodil]

However the number of people travelling with peak time flexible tickets or season tickets is down.

I was idly browsing through ticket prices to London and found plenty of peak trains with cheap advances, a fraction of the cost of the £340 Anytime Return. What that tells me is that in this new world the Anytime ticket is now overpriced and operators would make more money by cutting it to fill the trains.

What i still dont get is when i was in BR SR when we were trying to balance the books for NSE we were repeatedly told running the peak rush hour was the real challenge with poorly utilised rolling stock and crew resources. I know the privatised operators probably got smarter but seems to me a reduced rush hour should be an opportunity to save costs.

You would certainly think that they could do away with peak extras which would save on both rolling stock and crew.

The issue that gets brought up is that capacity is still needed for the midweek days, so those costs can't easily be saved, and the revenue is lower.

Discounting Mondays and Fridays to encourage some people to travel then rather than TWThO would take the top off of this.

 

[Bald Rick]

You would certainly think that they could do away with peak extras which would save on both rolling stock and crew.

You can, to an extent, but look at the reaction of local stakeholders when that is done (Southeastern).

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think the railway would be better off going all out and marketing Friday as a leisure day. Make it all off-peak, include it in attractive "weekender" fares etc.

Avanti already have. I think LNER may have as well but possibly only the evening.

LNR by contrast had them put in an unpublished restriction so those fares don't show up for their services. Thus on a Friday morning peak travel by Avanti is considerably cheaper than LNR.

 

[The Planner]

Id say on some routes they're taking more access with extra blockades but not eliminating the cyclic possessions although now sch4 has no meaning and operators don't have to woryy about fare income anymore the incentive for reducing possessions has been lost

it may be a money go round, but Sch4 influences a huge amount of engineering work. It hasnt gone away.

 

[ChrisC]

The problem is that the insufficient capacity at Leeds means all services through Barnsley are restricted to just two coaches - we desperately need more seats on the route but there’s just no way of running longer trains without radical surgery.

I completely understand the capacity problems at Leeds station and understand why all trains on the route between Leeds and Sheffield through Barnsley can only be two coaches. The bigger problem is that these are not just local trains on the Hallam Line but that they run through to Nottingham or Lincoln. Leeds-Sheffield-Nottingham has become a busy route and needs more than a 2 carriage train to serve these major cities. The last few times I have travelled on this route on a Saturday morning have been horrendous with overcrowding and it’s not just between Leeds and Sheffield. The train was also so busy south of Sheffield that people were having difficulty boarding at stations like Alfreton and Ilkeston.

 

[yorksrob]

There's plenty of room to extend 17b. The viaduct is the same width as the section with the platform and the loop continues a fair distance before joining the station throat. It might be worth paying to resite the signal and getting it done.

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Avanti already have. I think LNER may have as well but possibly only the evening.

LNR by contrast had them put in an unpublished restriction so those fares don't show up for their services. Thus on a Friday morning peak travel by Avanti is considerably cheaper than LNR.

That's interesting. I wonder whether GBR might bring a more consistent approach across companies.

 

[Snow1964]

I was idly browsing through ticket prices to London and found plenty of peak trains with cheap advances, a fraction of the cost of the £340 Anytime Return.

Discounting Mondays and Fridays to encourage some people to travel then rather than TWThO would take the top off of this.

The whole concept of what is a peak train, but a peak that is less than anytime needs to be reviewed and simplified.

Mondays and Fridays are still being treated as busy commuter times, not as leisure times like weekends.

Actually hardly anyone works the fixed 9-5 anymore, flexible working and 3 longer days in office, one at home, and a short or non-working day on Friday are becoming more common.

Probably a case for operating Saturday timetables on Friday too, simply copying it over to save work. Instead of having a Friday timetable that is basically a copy of Thursday.

 

[Killingworth]

There's plenty of room to extend 17b. The viaduct is the same width as the section with the platform and the loop continues a fair distance before joining the station throat. It might be worth paying to resite the signal and getting it done.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Feb 2023 ==

I'm sure I've heard somewhere that that has been seriously looked at. 17 feels like the poor relations platform, tucked away down the back almost out of sight and out of mind.

 

[yorksrob]

I'm sure I've heard somewhere that that has been seriously looked at. 17 feels like the poor relations platform, tucked away down the back almost out of sight and out of mind.

And a pain to get to in a hurry !

 

[Dr Day]

The whole concept of what is a peak train, but a peak that is less than anytime needs to be reviewed and simplified.

Indeed. What is peak in terms of volume, however, probably isn't the same as peak in terms of value any more. High peak fares used to be a way of maximising what the railway could get from those that didn't have any choice in when they could travel, and pushing those who were a bit more price sensitive onto quieter times.

We have had threads about Monday-only and Friday-only timetables before, but the industry has an incredibly difficult job on its hands balancing supply and demand in a cost-effective way at a price the market can bear, whilst at the same time trying to 'simplify'. You could probably throw everything into an optimising computer programme, but you would end up with a different timetable and different fares every day of the year, and even then the net subsidy may not be a figure the Treasury/taxpayer will accept or the timetable on certain routes would be politically unacceptable. Fixing one or the other is likely to be sub-optimal hence a tricky balance.

 

[hwl]

You can, to an extent, but look at the reaction of local stakeholders when that is done (Southeastern).

There was also an element of bad timing.
SE decide to do the long planned Charing Cross and Cannon Street north Kent lines simplification and cut peak service levels on short distance routes with the worst economics...
SE make decision well in advance of December TT change so usage level assumption from summer and very early autumn 2022?

But:
for some (but not all) London commuter operators there has been high levels of short distance peak travel, hence the medium or longer distance peaks extras may well be less utilised but probably better for revenue, this seems to have been a surprise for SE but not others like C2C.
I think SE's 375s and 707s have passenger loading sensors but the rest doesn't hence there may be data quality issues on inner services compared to outer ones.
There seems to have been a shift in the "number of days in the office" for a number of North Kent line users at the start of this year just after changes were made.
SE data is probably not as good as it barely bothers with revenue collection at medium and small North Kent lines stations hence may not be capturing non zone 1 + other major stations (e.g. Lewisham Abbey Wood Dartford) passenger data that well so may have been underestimating loadings if there is less on train data gathering.
Lots on new housing going up but years of denial by DfT and SE that potential rail users might live in the new housing. Lots of the new housing is now completing with plenty more in the pipeline.

SE's crystal ball gazing last summer may have been less good than mystic meg

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

How do you come to that conclusion?

GBR will be a DfT government agency, like the Strategic Rail Authority was.
It may be at some degree of arm's length from day-to-day ministerial control, but it will still have policy and budgets set by DfT.
The SRA had bouts of budget trouble (the cause of the "no growth" Northern and Wales & Borders franchises), and GBR will have the same sort of straitjacket.
I'd expect the government to exert the same financial level of control it does now, but in a different way.
BR had "freedom" from direct government control, but it was kept starved of capital and every significant project had to be signed off individually.

 

[Krokodil]

You can, to an extent, but look at the reaction of local stakeholders when that is done (Southeastern).

My sympathy is rather limited when I consider that Avanti will be cutting services up here again in May, which means that it will be impossible to get to London before 9am from some stations (one of them a ferry port), and from other stations passengers will need to get up almost an hour earlier.

They've also cut the last direct train back in the evening so if you wish to leave after 8pm then it'll take an hour longer to get home.

Obviously it's not like Avanti we're in the habit of turning up anyway...

Probably a case for operating Saturday timetables on Friday too, simply copying it over to save work. Instead of having a Friday timetable that is basically a copy of Thursday.

I'd do the opposite, it's about time that we moved towards a standard pattern seven day timetable.

The SRA had bouts of budget trouble (the cause of the "no growth" Northern and Wales & Borders franchises),

Not to mention the curse of four-car Voyagers on XC.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 27 Feb 2023 ==

It may be at some degree of arm's length from day-to-day ministerial control, but it will still have policy and budgets set by DfT.

It's not just the ministers who need keeping at arm's length, it's Sir Humphrey. Some chance of that happening...

 

[dk1]

Probably a case for operating Saturday timetables on Friday too, simply copying it over to save work. Instead of having a Friday timetable that is basically a copy of Thursday.

That would suit me down to the ground. We have far more in the way of sociable shift hours on Saturdays. Far less of the silly o'clock starts