UK Rail Passenger Numbers Discussion

[Bald Rick]

Only in the last couple of years. Before that they rose well above inflation. That's just the regulated fares, operators can do what they like with the unregulated ones. That's why some Anytime Returns don't cost much less than the equivalent 7DS.

Only in the last year (BaldRick is quite right of course for this year) We've endured above inflation rises for decades. We have an overpriced system in comparison to peer group countries

it’s interesting that there is a perception that fare rises have risen above (or well above) inflation for decades. This is not actually the case. The ORR, in one of their more helpful moments, publish data on this each year. The most recent document is here:

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/2065/rail-fares-index-2022.pdf

there’s an interesting graph which shows that since privatisation in ‘96, regulated fares have risen in line with or below RPI for 16 years, and above RPI (and only 1% above) for 11 years. If my maths is right, that means that with the recent very substantial shortfall of fare rises vs RPI, and that BR had years of well above RPI fare rises in the decade up to privatisation*, in real terms rail fares are now the cheapest they have been for around 30 years.

two relevant graphs below, one from the latest release, and one from 2020 that has a direct comparison to RPI.

* info from Chris Green’s book on Network South East, which I can’t find right now! IIRC, fares increased by 37% in real terms from 1984-1994.

 

[yorksrob]

it’s interesting that there is a perception that fare rises have risen above (or well above) inflation for decades. This is not actually the case. The ORR, in one of their more helpful moments, publish data on this each year. The most recent document is here:

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/media/2065/rail-fares-index-2022.pdf

there’s an interesting graph which shows that since privatisation in ‘96, regulated fares have risen in line with or below RPI for 16 years, and above RPI (and only 1% above) for 11 years. If my maths is right, that means that with the recent very substantial shortfall of fare rises vs RPI, and that BR had years of well above RPI fare rises in the decade up to privatisation*, in real terms rail fares are now the cheapest they have been for around 30 years.

two relevant graphs below, one from the latest release, and one from 2020 that has a direct comparison to RPI.

* info from Chris Green’s book on Network South East, which I can’t find right now! IIRC, fares increased by 37% in real terms from 1984-1994.

It's always been "RPI + something" as long as I can remember it.

Of course, not all fares are regulated, so if you use services where the fares are unregulated, you'll have been stung.

 

[Failed Unit]

The two things that we also need to consider is that fuel price increases have not matched rail. They always back down on tax increases. Motoring has comparatively got cheaper compared to rail. Changes to peak restrictions have significantly increased the costs for many. But suspect that is another thread. EMR haven’t changed the evening peak and don’t do advanced on most routes. Make if that what you will.

I suspect it is the combination of IC improvements (be interesting to see London - Corby now it is electric) and actually providing seats for passengers to physically board the trains on the regional now the 153s are gone.

 

[Blindtraveler]

Has this seems to have digressed slightly into a discussion on fares, could I ask, where are we now nationally and indeed across various sectors in terms of return to pre-covid passenger numbers? I believe TFL is either there or ahead of in some cases, Elizabeth line I'm looking at you here, and I should imagine many routes in the southeast are back to something that looks like normal but I'm very curious about the rest

 

[railfan99]

We have an overpriced system in comparison to peer group countries

As an outsider, I'd humbly suggest your nation of comparison ought be Germany. Good frequencies, some privatisation IIRC, a well used network like yours although different arrangements with levels of government.

I exclude France, partly because the connections from main to secondary or branch lines tend to be lengthy and hence poor. Worse than the UK from my lesser experience than many of you will have.

I always remember travelling a decade ago from Darlington to London after an enjoyable Whitby weekend including NYMR. A well dressed man in his 30s also joined the express there, and asked me how much my BritRail Pass was. When I told him, he said it was less or the same as he was paying for one return journey in first class.

But Blindtraveler correctly wants us to return to passenger numbers, so let's do that (even though fares arguably either grow or inhibit volumes depending on how they're set).

 

[Krokodil]

there’s an interesting graph which shows that since privatisation in ‘96, regulated fares have risen in line with or below RPI for 16 years, and above RPI (and only 1% above) for 11 years.

If the government considers CPI to be a more accurate measure of inflation, perhaps someone can look to see how fares (regulated or otherwise) have risen in comparison to that metric.

As an outsider, I'd humbly suggest your nation of comparison ought be Germany. Good frequencies, some privatisation IIRC, a well used network like yours although different arrangements with levels of government.

It would be interesting to see how passenger numbers in Germany are doing, particularly in view of the €49/month pass.

 

[yorksrob]

As an outsider, I'd humbly suggest your nation of comparison ought be Germany. Good frequencies, some privatisation IIRC, a well used network like yours although different arrangements with levels of government.

I exclude France, partly because the connections from main to secondary or branch lines tend to be lengthy and hence poor. Worse than the UK from my lesser experience than many of you will have.

I always remember travelling a decade ago from Darlington to London after an enjoyable Whitby weekend including NYMR. A well dressed man in his 30s also joined the express there, and asked me how much my BritRail Pass was. When I told him, he said it was less or the same as he was paying for one return journey in first class.

But Blindtraveler correctly wants us to return to passenger numbers, so let's do that (even though fares arguably either grow or inhibit volumes depending on how they're set).

Indeed. Germany would be a good comparison. It's noticeable that they are introducing genuinely innovative fares reform, which is something none of our political parties are interested in.

In terms of numbers, as far as Northern Rail is concerned, you wouldn't have known there'd been a pandemic from looking at the numbers using their trains.

 

[jon0844]

Same as the loadings on trains now the sun has finally been joined by hot weather.

 

[railfan99]

In terms of numbers, as far as Northern Rail is concerned, you wouldn't have known there'd been a pandemic from looking at the numbers using their trains.

Positive: due to some socio-economic areas served by this TOC, fare evasion may be high, but statistics only disclose farepayers. Pleasing figures suggest many are.

 

[slowroad]

Indeed. Germany would be a good comparison. It's noticeable that they are introducing genuinely innovative fares reform, which is something none of our political parties are interested in.

In terms of numbers, as far as Northern Rail is concerned, you wouldn't have known there'd been a pandemic from looking at the numbers using their trains.

German rail share of passenger transport is very similar to UK.

EUR-Lex - 52021DC0005 - EN - EUR-Lex

eur-lex.europa.eu

 

[3RDGEN]

Indeed. Germany would be a good comparison. It's noticeable that they are introducing genuinely innovative fares reform, which is something none of our political parties are interested in.

In terms of numbers, as far as Northern Rail is concerned, you wouldn't have known there'd been a pandemic from looking at the numbers using their trains.

The ORR figures show Northern at 75% of pre-COVID numbers for the last year, despite covering for TPE.

 

[yorksrob]

Positive: due to some socio-economic areas served by this TOC, fare evasion may be high, but statistics only disclose farepayers. Pleasing figures suggest many are.

The ORR figures show Northern at 75% of pre-COVID numbers for the last year, despite covering for TPE.

Northern are quite good a checking tickets round my way.

Covering for TPE is an interesting point. How many of those who have switched from TPE are on non-TOC specific fares, therefore figures are likely to be worked out on the old split of passengers between the two TOC's

German rail share of passenger transport is very similar to UK.

EUR-Lex - 52021DC0005 - EN - EUR-Lex

eur-lex.europa.eu

I suppose we have similar densities of population. It will be interesting to see whether the new ticketing arrangements shift this.

 

[Bald Rick]

It's always been "RPI + something" as long as I can remember it.

That was my point - that is what you remember, but is not borne out by the facts.

 

[Failed Unit]

Same as the loadings on trains now the sun has finally been joined by hot weather.

In what respect Jon? Not done Finsbury Park - Brighton since the 700s were introduced. But are the trains heading to the South Coast cosy? Normally on a Sunday as nice as today I would expect to be struggling to find a seat. But the increase in frequency and length never really settled down enough.

Just as a general observation on GTR. Peak loadings are lower. Off Peak much higher. 8 cars from WGC can be full heading to London. In the past they were 4 car and leaving people behind. (So comparing them may be unfair)

 

[PGAT]

But are the trains heading to the South Coast cosy? Normally on a Sunday as nice as today I would expect to be struggling to find a seat. But the increase in frequency and length never really settled down enough.

East Croydon - Brighton section is normally very well used so obviously no seats and only a little bit of room to stand. I bet in this weather and the upcoming weeks several trains will be completely full and standing

 

[Energy]

Northern are quite good a checking tickets round my way.

Covering for TPE is an interesting point. How many of those who have switched from TPE are on non-TOC specific fares, therefore figures are likely to be worked out on the old split of passengers between the two TOC's

Northern will have TPE passengers where they operate along the same route but plenty of other routes (say Scarborough to York, direct) TPE is the only choice, for those I suspect the car has taken the passengers.

Northern will be hit by the drop in commuting.

 

[Kite159]

Northern will have TPE passengers where they operate along the same route but plenty of other routes (say Scarborough to York, direct) TPE is the only choice, for those I suspect the car has taken the passengers.

Northern will be hit by the drop in commuting.

Not only car, but I suspect the Coastliner buses between York, Malton & Scarborough have taken some passengers away from TPE due to the TPE gamble of "will it run".

 

[jayah]

I have heard that before, I remember a Central trains manager saying the Lincoln Christmas Market actually loses them money compared to normal Saturday because when passengers are paying circa £10 per person each, it doesn’t cover the cost of the units / staff on the extras.

On the other hand although it didn’t make the railway any extra money, that was a significant amount of car off the road.

However are the rural railways a good use of taxpayers money is a debate I am sure everyone can spin to make their point. How much is social inclusion worth? Does Great Yarmouth needs all these extra car? What is the cost of congestions, maintaining the roads with more traffic on them etc. I suspect the answer that this is probably nobody really knows. When people start then debating about costs of accidents etc (more likely / frequent with more traffic) then we have a lot of numbers to debate.

I am afraid if you compare the passengers numbers using the train vs the number of car movements along that main road into Yarmouth it is doubtful you could even tell the difference if the railway was on strike or not. Leisure trips are said to have increased since COVID but has the rail market share even improved?

Social inclusion hinges far more on bus services and generally outside cities they are threadbare to say the least - and far cheaper to prop up than rail.

Living in a rural area is a hazard, I do have limited sympathy for massive calls on taxpayers money to subsidise rural public services, on the grounds that in most cases that is where people chose to live.

 

[Killingworth]

I travelled on two Hope Valley 4 coach stoppers today, both well loaded. Spoke to a number of fellow users about half end to end travellers.

Why not on TPE? Reliability yes, but mostly cost (less than half the price). Longer journey time not an issue - lack of air conditioning in 150s today might have been.

In 2019 we made a one off Cross Country journey to visit friends that seemed expensive, 2 travellers on railcards, about £150. We're doing it again this week. Priced now at nearly £200! What? Car being made ready, but hang on. Split ticketing to the rescue. Priced only pence away from £100 on the same trains. Drawback - playing musical chairs at Derby and Birmingham on each journey.

Compared with 4 years ago we'll be making 12 short journeys instead of 4 longer ones and paying less. That must be happening a lot and distorts comparisons. Only 70% of pre-covid revenue is being recovered yet trains are busy.. I'm not surprised

 

[Iskra]

I travelled on two Hope Valley 4 coach stoppers today, both well loaded. Spoke to a number of fellow users about half end to end travellers.

Why not on TPE? Reliability yes, but mostly cost (less than half the price). Longer journey time not an issue - lack of air conditioning in 150s today might have been.
I

Im on a rammed (presumably short formed) 2 coach EMR 170 over the Pennines currently. Mainly airport travellers like myself who seemingly don’t trust TPE anymore. Better a 2 coach that runs than a cancelled TPE. I did however see a 68 set in passenger service heading the other way, so possibly light at the end of the tunnel.

Apologies I’ve messed up with the quote boxes here- on my phone. The second box is my text.

 

[The exile]

The latter is an interesting point. Certainly in my own case my rail use has been heavily pared back by the post-Covid timetables. From the point of view of a GTR GN user, I will not return to making any form of peak-time use until such time as the peak extras return. Unless or until that happens I will continue to use the car, or in the case of discretionary journeys may well not make them at all and choose to do other things instead.

We’re lucky in that we have all the peak extras back (and more) - albeit shorter formed. However, with no certainty whether I’m going to be able to use it more than 14 days out, I haven’t bought a monthly season for nearly a year. When on a monthly, I would grin and bear the odd day I had to drive for other reasons. When buying weeklies, I will only do so if I know I’m going to be able to use it all 5 days (or 4+ weekend) Result for the railway on average 10 days’ worth of revenue a month instead of a month’s season (so about 50%)

German rail share of passenger transport is very similar to UK.

EUR-Lex - 52021DC0005 - EN - EUR-Lex

eur-lex.europa.eu

But, I suspect, a different profile of use with far less middle - long distance daily commuting but more urban areas where rail plays a big part in short- distance travel. The latter is likely to have recovered well; the former, as we know, hasn’t.

 

[Killingworth]

Apologies I’ve messed up with the quote boxes here- on my phone. The second box is my text.

The first two westbound EMR services for Liverpool are always 2 car., the first being a stopping all stations early service. The 7.29 from Sheffield really needs to be 3 or 4 car - a 2 car 170 today?

Another reason why some take the lower priced longer journey time Northern stoppers. Their 3 car 195 at 7.11 gets to Manchester a minute before the 7.29.

 

[Iskra]

The first two westbound EMR services for Liverpool are always 2 car., the first being a stopping all stations early service. The 7.29 from Sheffield really needs to be 3 or 4 car - a 2 car 170 today?

Another reason why some take the lower priced longer journey time Northern stoppers. Their 3 car 195 at 7.11 gets to Manchester a minute before the 7.29.

I’ll remember that for the future. The benefit of the 170 at least was that it has effective air con which has been useful today.

Yeah, I usually travel on the Northern services on this route but I just assumed it would be a 4 car 158 and fancied a change as all stations does start to drag towards the end of the journey.

 

[Julia]

I travelled on two Hope Valley 4 coach stoppers today, both well loaded. Spoke to a number of fellow users about half end to end travellers.

Why not on TPE? Reliability yes, but mostly cost (less than half the price). Longer journey time not an issue - lack of air conditioning in 150s today might have been.

In 2019 we made a one off Cross Country journey to visit friends that seemed expensive, 2 travellers on railcards, about £150. We're doing it again this week. Priced now at nearly £200! What? Car being made ready, but hang on. Split ticketing to the rescue. Priced only pence away from £100 on the same trains. Drawback - playing musical chairs at Derby and Birmingham on each journey.

Compared with 4 years ago we'll be making 12 short journeys instead of 4 longer ones and paying less. That must be happening a lot and distorts comparisons. Only 70% of pre-covid revenue is being recovered yet trains are busy.. I'm not surprised

Similar experience - I persuaded my other half to take the train St Neots - Whitby for a family do this weekend; NationalRail.co.uk offered a fare just over £400; split ticketing brought that down to £239 (imho much better than a long, hot drive in a tiny Honda, especially the beautiful Esk Valley ride) but only route Not Via Darlington... still very puzzled as how forcing the change to be at Northallerton or York makes any difference. I'm sure people who don't have the time and knowledge to work the system to best effect give up in disgust.

Although having said that, every LNER service we saw was full and standing, while TPE (only operating Saltburn - York) was pretty empty - the effect of demonstrably better service than their peers, or well publicised advance fares perhaps?

 

[Killingworth]

Although having said that, every LNER service we saw was full and standing, while TPE (only operating Saltburn - York) was pretty empty - the effect of demonstrably better service than their peers, or well publicised advance fares perhaps?

TPE is for Terrible Passenger Experience, steer well clear if possible at present.

Which is a dreadful position to be in for passengers, staff and the whole industry

 

[Richardr]

Interesting on those rail passenger numbers that Split Tickets now account for 5% of passenger journeys (and hence affect the journeys number) up from 3% last year.

 

[jon0844]

I hope that's everyone buying tickets from this forum! However, I expect that given TVMs now split tickets without even telling customers for certain routes, I am not surprised the number has grown.

 

[Failed Unit]

Living in a rural area is a hazard, I do have limited sympathy for massive calls on taxpayers money to subsidise rural public services, on the grounds that in most cases that is where people chose to live.

Do you have anything to back that up. I was born in a rural area, the village in the whole still has the same people in. A minority have moved in from the Cities, but the vast majority it was simply fate for where they were born. What I see happening now is that they are getting older and cant drive. Fortunately in that area Lincs County Council operates "call connect" bus service. But many of these old people that rely on it would rather die then move to the city.

 

[yorksrob]

Social inclusion hinges far more on bus services and generally outside cities they are threadbare to say the least - and far cheaper to prop up than rail.

Living in a rural area is a hazard, I do have limited sympathy for massive calls on taxpayers money to subsidise rural public services, on the grounds that in most cases that is where people chose to live.

This assumes that people who don't drive only go as far as their next town or village. Rail is by far the main means of non-car based travel for longer journeys.

Living in a rural area shouldn't be a hazard in a properly run developed country.