More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[fishwomp]

Remember those opposed to HS2 don't seem to bother with checking facts, and particularly on costs tend to just make up numbers

See: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/mar/11/adonis-high-speed-rail-blueprint

"The first phase will cost up to £17.4bn for 128 miles of track from London to the west Midlands [with the full 330-mile network costing £30bn]." Those were 2010 costs.. but £50 or 100bn it was not..

To be fair, the actual HS2 cost 'facts' have continuously been revised upwards since day 1: by now the optimists have overtaken the earlier estimates of pessimists..

 

[Roast Veg]

Especially as any meaningful upgrade will require a lot of tunnelling, which is always where the megabucks get spent.

This isn't true. Underground stations are expensive, and the cost jumps up when you need another TBM, but other than that it's remarkably cheap.

 

[Tezza1978]

This isn't true. Underground stations are expensive, and the cost jumps up when you need another TBM, but other than that it's remarkably cheap.

Which is almost certainly why Burnham won't get his fully underground HS2 station at Manc Piccadilly. I'm assuming the design would be impressive but gob-stoppingly expensive, so a surface station it will be .

 

[Parjon]

You would never build anything infrastructure wise anywhere if you ignored the "nebulous" parts.

How strange. I recall years ago, long before all this emerged about the budget, the burden of proof demands being placed on Liverpool as they contested their exclusion seemed both high and exacting. And that even when met, the answer was still being ghosted.

Anyone would think that the arguments are made up entirely to suit.

As I say, it's little wonder people don't trust the government.

 

[Tetchytyke]

As far as I can tell you included various sections that don't seem to be planned for building at present (leeds leg and golborne link). Also, the original oakervee figures will assume some inflation (though probably not at the current rate). whereas you treat them as though they don't include inflation at all yet. So that is two very significant overestimates to begin with.

I included phases 1, 2, and 3, for that is what HS2 promised. I quite agree that phase 3 may well not happen and this will reduce the cost, but then we're not getting the promised HS2 either.

Oakervee was at 2019 prices and specifically criticised HS2 for always referring to 2015 prices. They're still at it.

Who said anything about losing their London services?

Their london service will probably be slower, operated by a train with a flat front and stop more places, but it won't cease to exist.

I'd agree. We've already seen Rugby, Nuneaton, Stafford, Lichfield and Tamworth lose most of their intercity services. They still have a London service but it takes longer and has fewer facilities on board. You can then add Crewe, Stoke, Wilmslow, Macclesfield and Stockport to the list; Manchester Airport is near to Wilmslow and Stockport, but not that near and with relatively poor transport links.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Feb 2023 ==

This isn't true. Underground stations are expensive, and the cost jumps up when you need another TBM, but other than that it's remarkably cheap.

Fair point. If the trains can be crammed into the surface stations in Manchester and Leeds then two tunnels between the two wouldn't be that expensive- the Gotthard Base Tunnel only cost £10bn.

 

[The Planner]

I'd agree. We've already seen Rugby, Nuneaton, Stafford, Lichfield and Tamworth lose most of their intercity services. They still have a London service but it takes longer and has fewer facilities on board. You can then add Crewe, Stoke, Wilmslow, Macclesfield and Stockport to the list; Manchester Airport is near to Wilmslow and Stockport, but not that near and with relatively poor transport links.

Not sure id count Rugby in that, it has 2tph Avanti. One Manchester and the Blackpool/Scotland. Nuneaton is back hourly on a Manchester as well.

 

[Class 170101]

I would imagine there would be plenty of bucket and spade flights /city break flights to Europe still. The low cost airlines arent going to stop using Birmingham for those

Indeed HS services may mean more choice of destinations at Birmingham

If anything it's going to attract a lot more business and leisure travel to BHX, with it only being half an hour or so away from central London (comparable with Gatwick and Stansted Expresses).

and perhaps not far off that for Manchester / Liverpool if the flight happens to either be cheaper or better timed at Birmingham than either of those airports.

 

[D365]

I think they would keep the 390s for a while at least, because if the service to the inbetween places is slowed down and simultaneously chucked in a flat front, doors at thirds, train there will be an almighty row!

Is there not a thread from which I can escape the doors argument…

 

[Greybeard33]

But more recently, when the Golborne Spur was dropped, did not the government say that any replacement for it must fit within the £96bn?

From the Rail Minister's statement to Parliament:

Ahead of the government’s response to the Union Connectivity Review, we can confirm the government will look again at alternatives which deliver similar benefits to Scotland as the Golborne link, so long as these deliver for the taxpayer within the £96 billion envelope allocated for the Integrated Rail Plan.

Removing the Golborne Link from the HS2 Bill

Intention to remove the Golborne Link from the High-Speed Rail (Crewe – Manchester) Bill announced with alternative options to be explored.

www.gov.uk

I presume that the "£96bn envelope" is shorthand for the £85-104bn range as per the IRP.

 

[mrmartin]

Could a lot of these scrappages be resurrected by a labour govt in a year or two? Starmer seemed pretty keen to build the whole network.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Feb 2023 ==

I think the other thing to add is I expect that they all will be resurrected at some point. Now most motorways have smart motorway there is really no way to add more capacity to the transport network apart from more HS2 extensions. I cannot see major motorway widening programs being approved these days especially when the cost is going to be absolutely astronomic as it requires complete bridge reconstructions.

The really bad motorway congestion that will come (it's already bad now) will push more and more long journeys to rail, which will then increase the need for further high speed rail.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It will be at least 2 years before Starmer gets to choose, and high speed rail might not be a priority.
I would guess NPR might have a higher profile under Labour than north-south links.
Rail spend will probably be capped at the planned Tory levels for several years, as happened in the Blair/Brown early years.
Work stopped on the most of the eastern leg a couple of years ago (when HS2 was told to concentrate on the west).
The Golborne link must have been ready for the Crewe-Manchester Bill now going through parliament, but it will have lost several years by being omitted.
Any revised route will take years to develop to the same parliament-ready state.

 

[Roast Veg]

Work stopped on the most of the eastern leg a couple of years ago (when HS2 was told to concentrate on the west).
The Golborne link must have been ready for the Crewe-Manchester Bill now going through parliament, but it will have lost several years by being omitted.
Any revised route will take years to develop to the same parliament-ready state.

Your final point is true for both Golborne's replacement and for Birmingham to Nottingham. I strongly suspect that the tidbits the media appear to have run with relate to these sections in particular.

 

[Grumpy Git]

More ominous signals….

HS2 delays being considered to cut rising costs

HS2's boss admits delays are among options being considered to combat the impact of inflation.

www.bbc.co.uk

Delays to HS2 are being considered among other options to curb rising costs, the project's boss has admitted.
The planned high speed railway which will link London, the Midlands and North of England has long been plagued by cost increases and delays.
HS2 Ltd's CEO, Mark Thurston, told the BBC he was looking at the project's timing and phasing with the government.

 

[PsychoMouse]

More ominous signals….

HS2 delays being considered to cut rising costs

HS2's boss admits delays are among options being considered to combat the impact of inflation.

www.bbc.co.uk

Do they not know how inflation works?

It'll never be cheaper than now to build it

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

There are some important HS2 contracts not yet let - track, signalling/train management, OHLE etc, and also most of Lichfield-Crewe civils.
They could delay those contracts to lower the annual spend.
The rolling stock contract is still at the preferred supplier stage with no final design, and also could be delayed to match the infrastructure availability.
But there's not a lot you can do with contracts currently in progress, such as Phase 1 civils.
Euston rebuild could be further delayed.

 

[zwk500]

Do they not know how inflation works?

It'll never be cheaper than now to build it

They do know how inflation works, but they are more concerned with how the government accounts look, and all the borrowing being done now looks worse than spreading it out into the next parliament.

 

[JamesT]

They do know how inflation works, but they are more concerned with how the government accounts look, and all the borrowing being done now looks worse than spreading it out into the next parliament.

Also that inflation can work for the government in terms of their income through 'fiscal drag', which is where if you keep thresholds the same in cash terms, the amount of tax goes up as payrises etc. take people over them. So they're reckoning if they can control the spending then the books will start to balance.

 

[CapitalStar378]

If the trains are slowed down, reduced in frequency and terminate at Old Oak Common, surely the whole project is a waste of time and money? I know these are worst case scenario but not out of the question it seems.

HS2 rail line could be further delayed to cut costs, says boss

Talks under way with UK government over timings of project as prices of materials soar

www.theguardian.com

 

[class26]

If the trains are slowed dow, reduced in frequency and terminate at Old Oak Common, surely the whole project is a waste of time and money? I know these are worst case scenario but not out of the question it seems.

HS2 rail line could be further delayed to cut costs, says boss

Talks under way with UK government over timings of project as prices of materials soar

www.theguardian.com

but that is to suppose trains will be slowed down and reduced in frequency for the entire life of HS2. It may be for a few years but once up and running I suspect , as with HS1 there will be pressure to finish the job properly and this present government hasn`t that much tiem left

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

"Slowed down" could just mean running at 320km/h rather than the 350km/h specified.
Nobody else goes faster than that at the moment, and it might simplify the train spec.
The whole timetable for HS2 services on the WCML is up in the air anyway with the lack of commitment to Golborne and works north of Crewe.
Maybe it's time to review the plan for 200m trains doubling up at Crewe/Carlisle, for something more Pendolino-like (single 266m trains to fit the current WCML).
There's also the side effect on NPR to consider, if the route to Manchester is delayed.

 

[12LDA28C]

If the trains are slowed down, reduced in frequency and terminate at Old Oak Common, surely the whole project is a waste of time and money? I know these are worst case scenario but not out of the question it seems.

HS2 rail line could be further delayed to cut costs, says boss

Talks under way with UK government over timings of project as prices of materials soar

www.theguardian.com

Not the first time stories like this have appeared in the press, and the last time they were quickly denied by Government. To suggest that HS2 will terminate at Old Oak is just utter rubbish.

 

[zwk500]

If the trains are slowed down, reduced in frequency and terminate at Old Oak Common, surely the whole project is a waste of time and money? I know these are worst case scenario but not out of the question it seems.

HS2 rail line could be further delayed to cut costs, says boss

Talks under way with UK government over timings of project as prices of materials soar

www.theguardian.com

HS2 was always due to terminate at OOC for a first phase, being extended to Euston about 3-5 years later, IIRC. Stretching that out to 10 years is, in the scheme of a 100+ year project, not terrible. And there's no specific reason trains need to go to any specific top speed, just that journey times should be better. There are certain key bookmarks, like bringing Manchester below 2 hours, that are very worthwhile meeting though. However the alignment is now set, so the lowest trains would go down to is 300kph, and realistically any HS train you buy nowadays is going to be capable of 320kph, so you may as well spec it.

 

[Bletchleyite]

HS2 was always due to terminate at OOC for a first phase, being extended to Euston about 3-5 years later, IIRC. Stretching that out to 10 years is, in the scheme of a 100+ year project, not terrible. And there's no specific reason trains need to go to any specific top speed, just that journey times should be better. There are certain key bookmarks, like bringing Manchester below 2 hours, that are very worthwhile meeting though. However the alignment is now set, so the lowest trains would go down to is 300kph, and realistically any HS train you buy nowadays is going to be capable of 320kph, so you may as well spec it.

Stretching out is one thing because you can pull it back in again in better times - as an example I've stretched out my mortgage an extra 10 years to reduce the payment to aid dealing with the cost of living crisis (at the cost of paying more interest), but I intend to shorten it again in better times (as I already did once). My mortgage company (Nationwide) makes this really easy, you can just do it on their website.

However any cancellation of Euston, e.g. releasing/selling the land or loss of any relevant Acts of Parliament, would render the whole project worthless.

Lower speed I think is OK. Personally I'd have specced it as 300km/h or even 250km/h to start with. Superfast isn't needed, and as air resistance is the square of speed there are solid environmental reasons not to go excessively fast, not to mention more standard rolling stock being cheaper, e.g. I reckon adding 25mph to the 80x's top speed would not be particularly hard in the way 350s have been uprated to 110 from 100 with little more than a new pantograph and a few other minor tweaks.

 

[JonathanH]

Also that inflation can work for the government in terms of their income through 'fiscal drag', which is where if you keep thresholds the same in cash terms, the amount of tax goes up as payrises etc. take people over them.

Yes, but Fiscal Drag relies on people getting pay rises, something which is not guaranteed to happen.

In the context of HS2, the point about delay is just spreading a finite pot of money / borrowing and hoping inflation doesn't run away.

 

[Tezza1978]

HS2 was always due to terminate at OOC for a first phase, being extended to Euston about 3-5 years later, IIRC. Stretching that out to 10 years is, in the scheme of a 100+ year project, not terrible. And there's no specific reason trains need to go to any specific top speed, just that journey times should be better. There are certain key bookmarks, like bringing Manchester below 2 hours, that are very worthwhile meeting though. However the alignment is now set, so the lowest trains would go down to is 300kph, and realistically any HS train you buy nowadays is going to be capable of 320kph, so you may as well spec it.

This makes perfect sense. All I can see happening is a slowing down of the timeline. There aren't going to be drastic changes to top speed of the trains, slightly lower to meet a spec but as you say the route of the line and capability for the high speed is "baked in" and under construction. Zero chance that it won't run to Euston and I'm almost certain it will run to Manchester too.

 

[zwk500]

Stretching out is one thing because you can pull it back in again in better times - as an example I've stretched out my mortgage an extra 10 years to reduce the payment to aid dealing with the cost of living crisis (at the cost of paying more interest), but I intend to shorten it again in better times (as I already did once). My mortgage company (Nationwide) makes this really easy, you can just do it on their website.

However any cancellation of Euston, e.g. releasing/selling the land or loss of any relevant Acts of Parliament, would render the whole project worthless.

Agree with both of these.

Lower speed I think is OK. Personally I'd have specced it as 300km/h or even 250km/h to start with. Superfast isn't needed, and as air resistance is the square of speed there are solid environmental reasons not to go excessively fast, not to mention more standard rolling stock being cheaper, e.g. I reckon adding 25mph to the 80x's top speed would not be particularly hard in the way 350s have been uprated to 110 from 100 with little more than a new pantograph and a few other minor tweaks.

Max 350kph with initial opening at 300kph would have been reasonable. CAF, Alstom, Siemens and Hitachi could all provide a fairly standard train for 300kph.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Max 350kph with initial opening at 300kph would have been reasonable. CAF, Alstom, Siemens and Hitachi could all provide a fairly standard train for 300kph.

Plenty would be saved by not having such a tight spec for the train requiring so much custom stuff, indeed. I've read it and it literally specifies down to the colour of the bog flush handle.

A UK gauge version of the single deck AGV platform, the Siemens Velaro, the Hitachi AT400 or whatever the CAF one is would be absolutely fine. In essence you're just talking about doing the Eurostar TMST again but shorter and on a more modern platform, and that's little more than a TGV Reseau with a tummy tuck at platform level.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Plenty would be saved by not having such a tight spec for the train requiring so much custom stuff, indeed. I've read it and it literally specifies down to the colour of the bog flush handle.

That's incredible... was this specification drawn up by the DfT by any chance...?

 

[Bletchleyite]

That's incredible... was this specification drawn up by the DfT by any chance...?

I wouldn't like to comment...but I suspect so

(I may have been being facetious, I don't know if it specifies the bog handle colour or not, but it is *very* detailed - excessively so - and will cost a fortune as it's a totally custom design, so I'd not be surprised if it did!)

 

[Floul1]

Stretching out is one thing because you can pull it back in again in better times - as an example I've stretched out my mortgage an extra 10 years to reduce the payment to aid dealing with the cost of living crisis (at the cost of paying more interest), but I intend to shorten it again in better times (as I already did once). My mortgage company (Nationwide) makes this really easy, you can just do it on their website.

Except of course it will almost certainly become ludicrously expensive to shorten the time frames again, with the need to relet contracts. Any delay will more or less become permanent.