More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[Trainbike46]

Where do you get £150bn from?

Remember those opposed to HS2 don't seem to bother with checking facts, and particularly on costs tend to just make up numbers

 

[Dave_Cardboard]

I don't see much difference between domestic HS1 and HS2. HS1 is a "premium product" by virtue of speed; to ensure this, the classic express services (which weren't much slower) were slowed to a crawl. The same thing will happen on HS2 and the WCML.

Actually the WCML Express services are not going to be "slowed to a crawl" - they are going to be removed from the (southern) WCML entirely. That's "the point." Thereby freeing up capacity for more freight, local and inter-regional services on the WCML.

It has been stated by the Govt. many, many times over the last 13 years whenever this myth gets touted by HS2 haters that it's pricing is expected to be in line with other intercity-rail fares. No price premium "just because" it runs on HS2. Because there won't be any alternative. Travellers simply won't have a choice between HS2 or WCML. If you want to travel (say) London to Manchester by intercity train, it's a service that happens to run on HS2, or (as now,) drive, fly, coach, take a stopper, walk, cycle or "know your place" and stay where you are.

Fundamentally, you don't repay £150bn by piling it high and selling it cheap.

You are Lord Berkeley and I claim by 5 pounds. Another nonsense HS2 haters claim. Feel free to supply some actual evidence that it's going to cost this, instead of the Berkeley BS.

Not to worry though, the next report to Parliament is due in March 2023 which should include the real costs for you to get all upset about.

 

[zwk500]

I don't see much difference between domestic HS1 and HS2. HS1 is a "premium product" by virtue of speed; to ensure this, the classic express services (which weren't much slower) were slowed to a crawl. The same thing will happen on HS2 and the WCML.

Kent is slightly different to the WCML but I agree that the HS2 trains will be charged a higher fee.

Fundamentally, you don't repay £150bn by piling it high and selling it cheap.

Current budget for Phase 1 is £40bn, with a projected increase to £42bn expected. Phase 2A is estimated at £7bn max.

 

[Dave_Cardboard]

Most of them. HS2 is great for London- although the premium fares required to fund the budget overruns will price most people off it- but not for anywhere else. Manchester Airport doesn't have a huge amount of domestic traffic and what domestic traffic it has is either to Scotland or the South Coast.

Crossrail went billions over budget. No premium fares there to make up the difference.

 

[zwk500]

Crossrail went billions over budget. No premium fares there to make up the difference.

Crossrail was always about packing people in though. Slightly different business models.

 

[Trainbike46]

Crossrail was always about packing people in though. Slightly different business models.

HS2, with 1100 passengers per train, is very much about packing people in, just in a long-distance sense

 

[zwk500]

HS2, with 1100 passengers per train, is very much about packing people in, just in a long-distance sense

1100 over 400m, A Class 345 is 1500 over 200m. Not saying HS2 is low-capacity or an exclusive sense, but it will attract business fares like Eurostar alongside standard class advances. Eurostar, hardly described as 'ramming people in' is 900 people over 400m.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Where do you get £150bn from

The DfT's own estimate in 2019 was about (edit) £90bn, but since then we've had several years of high inflation and high interest rates. I do agree with Lord Berkeley that the DfT's estimates are too low. It is worth noting that the (edit) £90bn estimate does not take into account ongoing litigation relating to HS2's compulsory purchase orders.

It is notable that HS2 now routinely refer to "2015 prices" in their publicity.

 

[HSTEd]

I don't see much difference between domestic HS1 and HS2. HS1 is a "premium product" by virtue of speed; to ensure this, the classic express services (which weren't much slower) were slowed to a crawl. The same thing will happen on HS2 and the WCML.

HS1's domestic services were an afterthought put in to help the line get through the political process.
It was never conceived as being a major part of why the line was built, which is why we have a handful of short platforms.

Fundamentally, you don't repay £150bn by piling it high and selling it cheap.

That's exactly how you do it!

The marginal cost of running the service will be almost zero.
Doing anything that encourages the people to use the classic services would essentially be tossing banknotes onto a bonfire.

The classic WCML services lose money.

Trying to price people onto them would be the government leaving money on the table!

EDIT

The reality is that the bulk of the classic through services will be cut once HS2 opens, both to free paths and to simply cut the huge subsidy.
The bulk of the Class 390s will go for scrap once Phase One opens and removes their raison d'etre.

 

[Tetchytyke]

You are Lord Berkeley and I claim by 5 pounds. Another nonsense HS2 haters claim. Feel free to supply some actual evidence that it's going to cost this, instead of the Berkeley BS.

The Oakervee report had the estimate cost as of Q3 2019 to be around the £90bn mark. With just three years' inflation that is now £106bn, and there's another ten years to go yet. Using historic inflation rates that £106bn will become £140bn in ten years' time. And that's if you use the Oakervee figures.

I think he was "generous" in his report. I don't think HS2 will come in below £150bn.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Feb 2023 ==

That's exactly how you do it!

The marginal cost of running the service will be almost zero.
Doing anything that encourages the people to use the classic services would essentially be tossing banknotes onto a bonfire

The Virgin/Avanti model- especially at peak time- is to have a smaller number of passengers paying higher fares. That's why WCML expresses in the peak are half-full and why the first off-peak expresses are standing room only.

I'd love to see more sensible pricing on HS2, but I'm not going to hold my breath.

Crossrail went billions over budget. No premium fares there to make up the difference.

No, everyone's fares in London are going up massively to fund Crossrail and the hole it's blown in TfL's finances.

 

[Parjon]

The repay life for this level of investment is 50 years.

Assuming generously that HS2 will run as many services per day as Avanti (260) over 360 days a year, each and every service over those 50 years would need to generate a profit (that is after all expenses) of £32k. Assuming all that profit were able to be allocated to repay £150bn.

1) Avanti makes typically £17m profit. That works out to £181 per service...
2) are the"profits" from HS2 going to be used to pay down its debt or is the likes of Avanti going to expect to receive them?

Negative BCR indeed.

 

[Trainbike46]

The repay life for this level of investment is 50 years.

Assuming generously that HS2 will run as many services per day as Avanti (260) over 360 days a year, each and every service over those 50 years would need to generate a profit (that is after all expenses) of £32k. Assuming all that profit were able to be allocated to repay £150bn.

1) Avanti makes typically £17m profit. That works out to £181 per service...
2) are the"profits" from HS2 going to be used to pay down its debt or is the likes of Avanti going to expect to receive them?

Negative BCR indeed.

The business case for the government doesn't just consider fare income, but also things like economic growth stimulated, wider societal benefits etc.

operating costs will be lower than for the conventional infrastructure, and capacity will be higher, so at the same (or lower) fare levels, profits per service will be higher

And that £150 billion is not an accurate number for the costs anyway....

 

[Parjon]

Yes, the nebulosity of the fictions included in the business case has been talked about elsewhere. It's shocking that even with those included, and with the artificially low cost figures used, it's still a negative BCR project.

And they wonder why people don't trust government.

Let's hope the operating costs are much lower and the capacity much higher... There is quite the gap between £32,000 and £181 per service...

 

[Meerkat]

The bulk of the Class 390s will go for scrap once Phase One opens and removes their raison d'etre.

Unless they are falling apart why would they do that?
Wont they just run roughly the same routes but stopping more often?

 

[The Planner]

Yes, the nebulosity of the fictions included in the business case has been talked about elsewhere. It's shocking that even with those included, and with the artificially low cost figures used, it's still a negative BCR project.

And they wonder why people don't trust government.

Let's hope the operating costs are much lower and the capacity much higher... There is quite the gap between £32,000 and £181 per service...

You would never build anything infrastructure wise anywhere if you ignored the "nebulous" parts.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The DfT's own estimate in 2019 was about (edit) £90bn, but since then we've had several years of high inflation and high interest rates. I do agree with Lord Berkeley that the DfT's estimates are too low. It is worth noting that the (edit) £90bn estimate does not take into account ongoing litigation relating to HS2's compulsory purchase orders.
It is notable that HS2 now routinely refer to "2015 prices" in their publicity.

That was for "full HS2" with the eastern leg to Leeds/York and the main line to Golborne.
HS2 to Manchester is currently 44 + 7 + 18-ish (Phases 1, 2a and 2b to Manchester) at 2019 prices I believe.
So say 70 billion, plus inflation, which is not really in the project's control once you've let the contracts.
Shapps also capped the future IRP spend (remaining HS2 plus TRU/NPR) at 96 billion.
I don't know where the truncated eastern leg to East Mids Pkwy sits in this (I think it's part of the 96 billion).

 

[zwk500]

Yes, the nebulosity of the fictions included in the business case has been talked about elsewhere. It's shocking that even with those included, and with the artificially low cost figures used, it's still a negative BCR project.

And they wonder why people don't trust government.

Let's hope the operating costs are much lower and the capacity much higher... There is quite the gap between £32,000 and £181 per service...

If the £32K is the figure you are using to repay the debt, that gap only needs to be made to the Exchequer - i.e. Greater tax receipts, not HS2 ltd/Avanti in Fare receipts.

HS2 budget is quoted in this report: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/high-speed-two-6-monthly-report-to-parliament-october-2022#:~:text=An estimated £1.1 billion,for the HS2 Euston Station.

To date, out of the phase 1 target cost of £40.3 billion, £18.3 billion has been spent, with an additional £1 billion for land and property provisions. £10.6 billion has been contracted and has not been spent. The remaining amount is not yet under contract. The target cost does not include government-held contingency.

HS2 Ltd has drawn £1.5 billion of its £5.6 billion delegated contingency for phase 1, an increase of £0.2 billion since the last update, leaving about £4 billion.

HS2 Ltd is projecting around £1.9 billion of net additional cost pressures on phase 1, an increase of about £0.2 billion since March.

The phase 2a budget remains unchanged, with a cost range of £5.2 billion to £7.2 billion. The government intends to set a target cost alongside publication of the full business case.

On phase 2b Western Leg the financial case of the SOBC published in January 2022 presented an estimated cost range of £15 billion to £22 billion. Removal of the Golborne Link from the scope of the phase 2b Western Leg Bill scheme has reduced the overall estimated cost range to £13 billion to £19 billion.

 

[Tetchytyke]

And that £150 billion is not an accurate number for the costs anyway....

I've explained my working out, and I'm genuinely curious where you think I am mistaken. I've used Oakervee's figures as my starting point, after all.

Where costs have dropped is where parts of the original HS2 plan have been kicked into the long grass. If, as I suspect, everything north of Lichfield will also end up in the long grass then the bill will be lower, but we won't have got what was initially promised.

That was for "full HS2" with the eastern leg to Leeds/York and the main line to Golborne.
HS2 to Manchester is currently 44 + 7 + 18-ish (Phases 1, 2a and 2b to Manchester) at 2019 prices I believe.

That sounds about right. Phase 3 was about £35bn at 2019 prices IIRC.

If we only build half of what was promised then the cost will come down, and I'd really not be surprised to see everything north of Lichfield canned.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Feb 2023 ==

Shapps also capped the future IRP spend (remaining HS2 plus TRU/NPR) at 96 billion.

And that's where the north will get properly shafted by HS2. If HS2 swallows up £60bn or so, as it will if only phases 1 and 2 get built, then you're not getting a whole lot of upgrades for trans-pennine. Especially as any meaningful upgrade will require a lot of tunnelling, which is always where the megabucks get spent.

 

[Trainbike46]

I've explained my working out, and I'm genuinely curious where you think I am mistaken. I've used Oakervee's figures as my starting point, after all.

As far as I can tell you included various sections that don't seem to be planned for building at present (leeds leg and golborne link). Also, the original oakervee figures will assume some inflation (though probably not at the current rate). whereas you treat them as though they don't include inflation at all yet. So that is two very significant overestimates to begin with.

There's also been some reports they may try to save money by speeding up euston construction.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Feb 2023 ==

And that's where the north will get properly shafted by HS2. If HS2 swallows up £60bn or so, as it will if only phases 1 and 2 get built, then you're not getting a whole lot of upgrades for trans-pennine. Especially as any meaningful upgrade will require a lot of tunnelling, which is always where the megabucks get spent.

Is anyone genuinely surprised by our current westminster government, lead by our former chancellor who boasted about moving money from deprived (northern) areas to wealthy (southern) areas, shafting the north?

 

[HSTEd]

Unless they are falling apart why would they do that?
Wont they just run roughly the same routes but stopping more often?

They are very expensive to operate (very heavy and maintenance requirements on tilt gear et al), and are set up for long distance journeys with full scale catering offers and lots of first class.

Most journeys north of Birmingham (and with 2A everything north of Crewe) can be met with HS2 Classic Compatible sets that don't have to use the Southern WCML. And there will be less passengers total on the routes that do remain 390 operated since the largest flows will defect to HS2.

At which point there is precious little reason to keep them around.

Cutting a large part of the ICWC Classic timetable and giving the rest to LNWR would enable a large reduction in operational subsidy expenditure with comparatively little impact on passenger flows.

 

[Jack Hay]

The reality is that the bulk of the classic through services will be cut once HS2 opens, both to free paths and to simply cut the huge subsidy.
The bulk of the Class 390s will go for scrap once Phase One opens and removes their raison d'etre.

This worries me. What about all the towns that are served by the WCML today but not on HS2? Has anybody told them they will lose their London services? No, and so i think much of the classic service will have to continue, so there will not be much freed up capacity. HS2 only has stations in London, Birmingham and Manchester (and Crewe until it is bypassed by tunnel). Everywhere else gets bypassed so has to be served by existing WCML or not at all.

 

[Trainbike46]

This worries me. What about all the towns that are served by the WCML today but not on HS2? Has anybody told them they will lose their London services? No, and so i think much of the classic service will have to continue, so there will not be much freed up capacity. HS2 only has stations in London, Birmingham and Manchester (and Crewe until it is bypassed by tunnel). Everywhere else gets bypassed so has to be served by existing WCML or not at all.

classic services will be changed, that is for sure. But the focus of the remaining classic services will be specifically to serve those places not served by HS2, so a lot of those places will probably benefit from more frequent services, whatever stock ends up operating it.

 

[HSTEd]

This worries me. What about all the towns that are served by the WCML today but not on HS2? Has anybody told them they will lose their London services? No, and so i think much of the classic service will have to continue, so there will not be much freed up capacity. HS2 only has stations in London, Birmingham and Manchester (and Crewe until it is bypassed by tunnel). Everywhere else gets bypassed so has to be served by existing WCML or not at all.

Who said anything about losing their London services?

Their london service will probably be slower, operated by a train with a flat front and stop more places, but it won't cease to exist.

In addition, a lot of these places will have much faster options available once HS2 opens than the direct train.

Once HS2 reaches Manchester, the fastest option from Stockport will be to double back into Piccadilly. From Wilmslow it will be to just go to Manchester Airport instead.

Similar realities hold for other places along the route.

EDIT:

National Rail Enquiries is acting up but it doesn't look like the LNWR service from Milton Keynes to London is much slower than the Avanti one, somewhat similar for other places south of Birmingham.

 

[Meerkat]

Who said anything about losing their London services?

Their london service will probably be slower, operated by a train with a flat front and stop more places, but it won't cease to exist.

In addition, a lot of these places will have much faster options available once HS2 opens than the direct train.

Once HS2 reaches Manchester, the fastest option from Stockport will be to double back into Piccadilly. From Wilmslow it will be to just go to Manchester Airport instead.

Similar realities hold for other places along the route.

EDIT:

National Rail Enquiries is acting up but it doesn't look like the LNWR service from Milton Keynes to London is much slower than the Avanti one, somewhat similar for other places south of Birmingham.

I think they would keep the 390s for a while at least, because if the service to the inbetween places is slowed down and simultaneously chucked in a flat front, doors at thirds, train there will be an almighty row!

 

[Jack Hay]

Their london service will probably be slower, operated by a train with a flat front and stop more places, but it won't cease to exist.

National Rail Enquiries is acting up but it doesn't look like the LNWR service from Milton Keynes to London is much slower than the Avanti one, somewhat similar for other places south of Birmingham.

I don't think people in these towns where the services will become slower - or their councillors or MPs - have grasped this yet.

MK to London is almost as fast by LNWR as Avanti, that's true. But what about MK to Manchester? That's another journey that HS2 makes slower, isn't it?

 

[Trainbike46]

I don't think people in these towns where the services will become slower - or their councillors or MPs - have grasped this yet.

MK to London is almost as fast by LNWR as Avanti, that's true. But what about MK to Manchester? That's another journey that HS2 makes slower, isn't it?

MK to manchester will be MK-Birmingham International-HS2-Manchester, and that should be faster, thoug with one change at birmingham international

 

[The Planner]

I don't think people in these towns where the services will become slower - or their councillors or MPs - have grasped this yet.

MK to London is almost as fast by LNWR as Avanti, that's true. But what about MK to Manchester? That's another journey that HS2 makes slower, isn't it?

Depends on the extra stops, they already do Rugby, Stoke, Macc and Stockport. Chances are they might do an extra Trent Valley station and maybe Stafford. Would add 6-7 minutes for a Trent Valley stop at Lichfield or Tamworth.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Feb 2023 ==

MK to manchester will be MK-Birmingham International-HS2-Manchester, and that should be faster, thoug with one change at birmingham international

Its 101 minutes now. Milton Keynes to International is 44 minutes ish now. You are going to need 15 minutes to change, possibly 20 to Birmingham Interchange. I reckon it will be close.

 

[AndrewE]

MK to manchester will be MK-Birmingham International-HS2-Manchester, and that should be faster, thoug with one change at birmingham international

Depends on the extra stops, they already do Rugby, Stoke, Macc and Stockport. Chances are they might do an extra Trent Valley station and maybe Stafford. Would add 6-7 minutes for a Trent Valley stop at Lichfield or Tamworth.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Feb 2023 ==


Its 101 minutes now. Milton Keynes to International is 44 minutes ish now. You are going to need 15 minutes to change, possibly 20 to Birmingham Interchange. I reckon it will be close.

but also with the inconvenience of the need to change trains (and maybe miss connections too) on simple journeys on what are currently through trains on one of our main lines - the Premier Line, no less!

I think that until the houses of Parliament and the civil service are made to work out of (e.g.) Leeds and Manchester we shall never see any sensible provision of public transport in the UK designed to help people travel between places one of which is not London!

 

[Greybeard33]

Shapps also capped the future IRP spend (remaining HS2 plus TRU/NPR) at 96 billion.
I don't know where the truncated eastern leg to East Mids Pkwy sits in this (I think it's part of the 96 billion).

According to the IRP the £96bn (which was at 2019 prices) was not a cap but a central estimate, within an overall range of £85–104bn. It excluded £8.4bn already spent on HS2 up to March 2020. The IRP (see p31) broke down the £96bn as follows:

• £42.5bn Completion of HS2 Phase One and 2a (March 2020 onwards)
• £17.0bn HS2 Phase 2b Western Leg (including Golborne link)
• £1.5bn Smaller rail schemes in the North and Midlands until 2025
• £5.4bn Transpennine Route Upgrade (TRU) base scope, including full electrification (Option F)
• £12.8bn HS2 East Core Network (including HS2 Eastern Leg, Midland Main Line and East Coast upgrade)
• £17.2bn NPR Core Liverpool–York (including TRU Option G enhancement)

Total provision, at 2019 prices, £96.4bn, or £104.8bn including the previous HS2 spend.

Integrated Rail Plan for the North and Midlands

The government’s plan for delivering and sequencing major rail investment in the North and Midlands.

www.gov.uk

 

[snowball]

According to the IRP the £96bn (which was at 2019 prices) was not a cap but a central estimate

But more recently, when the Golborne Spur was dropped, did not the government say that any replacement for it must fit within the £96bn?