Cross Country HST withdrawals?

[Kite159]

In an ideal world(*) the XC HSTs would be replaced with the voyagers released from Avanti, that way more services can be run doubled up or run to what the timetable looked like pre Covid.

Not replacing the HSTs is just daft, it isn't like XC are carrying around fresh air, but since they don't serve London the civil servants in the DfT don't particularly care.

(*Excluding XC ordering 9 coach bimodal stock)

 

[Meerkat]

Perhaps, but the need is far far less. Life for passengers on SWT or Anglia wouldn't really be much worse where the new trains not to come in. XC passengers suffering will be far far greater.

How do you work that out, particularly bearing in mind when the decision to lease the 701s was made?

 

[daodao]

Sad news. Sad that good trains are being withdrawn but sadder that the capacity they offer isn't being replaced.

The IC125 trains are now 40+ years old and well past their sell-by date; they are ready for the scrapyard.

I'd say the SW to NE route will be pretty much unusable by this time next year. What a terrible shame.

It is preferable to concentrate on enhancing and developing services to/from London, which as the capital city generates the most demand for rail services, as distinct from secondary cross-country routes.

 

[WAB]

It is preferable to concentrate on enhancing and developing services to/from London, which as the capital city generates the most demand for rail services, as distinct from secondary cross-country routes.

XC NE to SW is hardly secondary and really we need to have a more even approach across the country.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

Perhaps, but the need is far far less. Life for passengers on SWT or Anglia wouldn't really be much worse where the new trains not to come in. XC passengers suffering will be far far greater.

Yes life would be far worse for SWR passengers as the rolling stock from the 1980s is life expired so they would ultimately end up with no train.

Decisions are also based on lease ends of which the XC HSTs have one, the SWR 701s have no option for early hand back.

 

[DanNCL]

The IC125 trains are now 40+ years old and well past their sell-by date; they are ready for the scrapyard.

That isn’t the issue, the issue is there’s 35 coaches being withdrawn without replacement from a route that already suffers from chronic overcrowding. If 35 replacement carriages were arriving at the same time there wouldn’t be an issue with the HSTs going.

It is preferable to concentrate on enhancing and developing services to/from London, which as the capital city generates the most demand for rail services, as distinct from secondary cross-country routes.

It is preferable to enhance and develop routes that link all major economic centres to each other, not just to/from London.

A secondary cross country route would be Birmingham - Peterborough via Leicester. Not Birmingham - Edinburgh via Sheffield, Leeds and Newcastle.

Yes life would be far worse for SWR passengers as the rolling stock from the 1980s is life expired so they would ultimately end up with no train.

Decisions are also based on lease ends of which the XC HSTs have one, the SWR 701s have no option for early hand back.

701s do however have the option of rejecting them altogether if Alstom don’t get the issues with them sorted out. ÖBB have already got out of a contract for Bombardier/Alstom units this way, SWR could follow. Not so much of an option for GA and C2C as many 720s have already been accepted, so not as if they can suddenly tell Alstom the product delivered isn’t up to scratch.

Probably worth noting that it isn’t all doom and gloom when it comes to rolling stock cuts. It’s reasonably certain that the 91+Mark 4 sets with LNER are safe beyond their lease expiry date in August, safe until at least December.

 

[jagardner1984]

Probably worth noting that it isn’t all doom and gloom when it comes to rolling stock cuts. It’s reasonably certain that the 91+Mark 4 sets with LNER are safe beyond their lease expiry date in August, safe until at least December.

Weirdly the whole project of privatised rail could be said to be based on distance, meaning separating ministers from decisions good or bad to give them the “not me guv” excuse at the dispatch box, whilst still being invited to cut ribbons at opening bits of DfT interventions.

Ironically the post covid system has removed almost all of that distance, with now a range of unquestionably bad decisions (reduced capacity, not commenting on what or where they are reducing) are being made at the behest of Ministers, which is slightly harder to pass off as “not me guv” when the operator is literally directly run through OLR by the DfT, as in the case of LNER.

Ironically given this was a Government not six months ago bemoaning the “anti growth coalition” - the regressive cuts to Cross Country and others will have the effect of suppressing growth for a far longer period. Since not all journeys are replaceable by EasyJet or Loganair, the simple effect of either personal experience of grossly overloaded 4 Car Voyagers, or more widely reading about them in the news or social media, is simply to drive away passengers, however unrepresentative that may be of overall journeys.

All sounds a bit like “managed decline”, doesn’t it ?

 

[irish_rail]

Yes life would be far worse for SWR passengers as the rolling stock from the 1980s is life expired so they would ultimately end up with no train.

Decisions are also based on lease ends of which the XC HSTs have one, the SWR 701s have no option for early hand back.

Well passengers left behind because unable to board a wedged 4 car voyager will just be left behind on the platform. So much for levelling up. It completely screws over the entire south west. Not everyone wants to go to London....

 

[Watershed]

Weirdly the whole project of privatised rail could be said to be based on distance, meaning separating ministers from decisions good or bad to give them the “not me guv” excuse at the dispatch box, whilst still being invited to cut ribbons at opening bits of DfT interventions.

Ironically the post covid system has removed almost all of that distance, with now a range of unquestionably bad decisions (reduced capacity, not commenting on what or where they are reducing) are being made at the behest of Ministers, which is slightly harder to pass off as “not me guv” when the operator is literally directly run through OLR by the DfT, as in the case of LNER.

Ironically given this was a Government not six months ago bemoaning the “anti growth coalition” - the regressive cuts to Cross Country and others will have the effect of suppressing growth for a far longer period. Since not all journeys are replaceable by EasyJet or Loganair, the simple effect of either personal experience of grossly overloaded 4 Car Voyagers, or more widely reading about them in the news or social media, is simply to drive away passengers, however unrepresentative that may be of overall journeys.

All sounds a bit like “managed decline”, doesn’t it ?

It's managed decline, but of the railways rather than anything more sinister. Let's not kid ourselves - whilst overcrowding is uncomfortable and will put a lot of people off taking the train, most of them will just drive or fly instead. The effect on the economy is sadly minimal.

The question is really just whether, when you are already spending billions of pounds a year on maintaining the infrastructure and capability to run a train service, saving a few million a year for a much worse public service represents good value for money.

 

[12LDA28C]

The IC125 trains are now 40+ years old and well past their sell-by date; they are ready for the scrapyard.

And yet they still provide a far superior passenger experience to the rancid Voyagers which are half their age.

 

[DarloRich]

The IC125 trains are now 40+ years old and well past their sell-by date; they are ready for the scrapyard.

ok ( beyond age I am not sure I agree carriage wise - they recently had an expensive refit but putting that aside) what do you suggest replaces them? My concern is not that HST are going, although that is sad, but that they are leaving without replacement or even a plan for replacement. It a case of jam tomorrow. It isnt even toast today!

Every XC I have been on recently ( HST aside) has been packed to the gunnels. People are travelling just not at the times the DfT want!

 

[DanNCL]

All sounds a bit like “managed decline”, doesn’t it ?

Exactly what it is in everything but name.

 

[John R]

ScotRail are stuck with them for a while yet, whether they want them or not.

Are you sure? Lots of Voyagers and Meridians are yet to find a home. Not sure about the leasing arrangements for the HSTs, but if the owners also have spare 22x stock looking for a home they might be minded to come to an agreement that keeps the more modern stock in use if the alternative customer (DfT) shows no sign of wanting them.

 

[geoffk]

Apart from the economic effects and fuel costs?

and the economic effects of Brexit.

 

[DanNCL]

Are you sure? Lots of Voyagers and Meridians are yet to find a home. Not sure about the leasing arrangements for the HSTs, but if the owners also have spare 22x stock looking for a home they might be minded to come to an agreement that keeps the more modern stock in use if the alternative customer (DfT) shows no sign of wanting them.

ScotRail are stuck with the HSTs until 2027 whether they like it or not as they're on lease for that period. If ScotRail were to replace them with 22xs they'd need to be offered and exceptionally good deal on them seeing as they'd still have to pay for the HSTs they wouldn't be using until 2027. If the 379s are anything to go buy, such a good deal likely won't be forthcoming.

 

[TheBigD]

Are you sure? Lots of Voyagers and Meridians are yet to find a home. Not sure about the leasing arrangements for the HSTs, but if the owners also have spare 22x stock looking for a home they might be minded to come to an agreement that keeps the more modern stock in use if the alternative customer (DfT) shows no sign of wanting them.

XC HSTs some are owned by of Angel Trains and some are owned by Porterbrook.
222s are owned by Eversholt Rail Group.
220/221s are owned by Beacon Rail.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Indeed, but the time to bin them was three or four years ago before the expensive carriage modifications, not now. But since when have DfT ever done anything the sensible way. Spending a fortune on the carriages then immediately scrapping them, that’s the DfT way.

The franchise-era modifications would have been at TOC/Rosco cost, not DfT (public) money.
The Rosco has had 25+ years of good revenues out of the HST fleet, at little risk to themselves.

 

[Towers]

The IC125 trains are now 40+ years old and well past their sell-by date; they are ready for the scrapyard.

And yet still they offer a superior journey experience to much of what has replaced them. You can look upon that either as a tribute to the quality of the HST or as a scathing assessment of some of the more recent attempts at intercity rolling stock, but either way they remain a very pleasant means of travel, and certainly far superior to no replacement at all!

 

[John R]

ScotRail are stuck with the HSTs until 2027 whether they like it or not as they're on lease for that period. If ScotRail were to replace them with 22xs they'd need to be offered and exceptionally good deal on them seeing as they'd still have to pay for the HSTs they wouldn't be using until 2027. If the 379s are anything to go buy, such a good deal likely won't be forthcoming.

Given that from contract to delivery of the IETs of recent contracts is around 4 years, it feels like the procurement process needs to start fairly soon if the intention is that the HSTs are retired at the earliest possible opportunity and replaced with new stock. If they have an eye on 22x stock as replacement, then the question is whether stock will still be available in 2027, or if it will have been snapped up if the government view on the railways changes (as could easily happen after the general election), or scrapped if there is no obvious use for it, in the interim.

 

[cactustwirly]

I think this is completely ridiculous.
Fair enough if the Avanti 221s were replacing them.

The double sets will obviously be split to make up the shortfall, so you'll get single 4 cars on the NE-SW route. The 220s have a similar seating capacity to a 2 car 156 due to the horrifically crap design of them.

The 3 car 158s on the Portsmouth line that were overcrowded, had more seats...

 

[43096]

Are you sure? Lots of Voyagers and Meridians are yet to find a home. Not sure about the leasing arrangements for the HSTs, but if the owners also have spare 22x stock looking for a home they might be minded to come to an agreement that keeps the more modern stock in use if the alternative customer (DfT) shows no sign of wanting them.

The ScotRail HSTs are covered by a Section 54 agreement that covers their lease through to 2030.

 

[SirDanielGooch]

Between the future XC capacity problems and Avanti’s ongoing struggles, any sort of diagonal movement across the UK network is going to be rendered pretty much impossible by rail. Down in my corner (Taunton) we’re getting the double-whammy of HST withdrawals alongside the end of the GWR services. As good as the HSTs have been, age has caught up with them. But to not have any replacements and to just accept the reduced capacity reeks of managed decline as others have said.

It’s a real shame that so many middle aged pieces of rolling stock are being sent away for scrap or parked up in storage. EMRs 180s have a huge number of problems, but I’d rather have them on the Penzance/Taunton - Cardiff services if it meant freeing up 800s to keep capacity up until the rolling repairs are done or new rolling stock arrives.

As for XC, there are plenty of voyagers out there with Avanti, moving them over to XC makes all the sense in the world, and I don’t even like the voyagers. I’m not as knowledgeable as most on here, so we have a proper operational reason as to why that can’t happen?

XC is one of the most important and complicated franchises in the UK imo, but as others have said gets let down by DfT because it’s not London.

Think for my regular trips to Cardiff and Cheltenham, I’ll be driving for the foreseeable. What an absolute shame.

 

[Meerkat]

Any chance DfT are playing hardball and waiting to see how desperate the ROSCOs are to avoid scrapping the Voyagers/Meridians?
Get rid of the HSTs, show you can cope at least until the Meridians are available (ie the DfT can, not the passengers), then wait for the ROSCOs to come knocking - are the owners of the 221s and 222s different and in competition to find them a new home?

 

[Benjwri]

EMRs 180s have a huge number of problems, but I’d rather have them on the Penzance/Taunton - Cardiff services if it meant freeing up 800s to keep capacity up until the rolling repairs are done or new rolling stock arrives.

The Cardiff - Penzance route is a hugely complicated one that uses drivers from a huge amount of depots. For the 180s to be used all these drivers would need to be trained, along with maintenance and other train crew.

It’s a huge amount of investment for 4 trains, which won’t be able to fully cover the HSTs, so will still need some 802s, and are pretty much falling apart at this point.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

The Cardiff - Penzance route is a hugely complicated one that uses drivers from a huge amount of depots. For the 180s to be used all these drivers would need to be trained, along with maintenance and other train crew.

Indeed it needs training of traincrew at Bristol TM, Gloucester, Westbury, Exeter, Plymouth, Par and Penzance all work trains on that corridor. In terms of depot training it would be needed at St Philips Marsh, Laira and Long Rock.

 

[swt_passenger]

…are the owners of the 221s and 222s different and in competition to find them a new home?

Part of that question, ie about the different ROSCOs, was answered earlier in post #72. But a competition still requires the need for extra stock to be accepted first…

 

[Wyrleybart]

The Cardiff - Penzance route is a hugely complicated one that uses drivers from a huge amount of depots. For the 180s to be used all these drivers would need to be trained, along with maintenance and other train crew.

It’s a huge amount of investment for 4 trains, which won’t be able to fully cover the HSTs, so will still need some 802s, and are pretty much falling apart at this point.

I don't think the poster's idea of four clapped out ex EMR exx FHT exxx FGW 180s has any creedence. One of the four units has had it's catering vehicle stood down probably permanently due to wiring issues and body corrosion. If there is one vehicle out of the twenty now the will surely be more soon.

Part of that question, ie about the different ROSCOs, was answered earlier in post #72. But a competition still needs the need for extra stock to be accepted first…

Maybe, but the truth AFAIK is that no new rolling stock has been requested / authorised / ordered since March 2020 when DfT took control.

AIUI LNER need more rolling stock to eventually replace the seven remaining class 91+DVT combos but covid got in the way. I am assuming class 91s will not be able to work south of Grantham from 2030 when ETCS commences. I also magine the EWR DMUs will need ordering soon if it is to be opening in 2025.

These will probably the indication of how DfT will procure new rolling stock for the TOCs. Will TOCs actually have any say at all in what they think they want.

 

[GoneSouth]

It is preferable to concentrate on enhancing and developing services to/from London, which as the capital city generates the most demand for rail services, as distinct from secondary cross-country routes.

Utter tosh. If we say London is number 1 in the table of UK cities by population size, then XC serves numbers 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13, 15, 17, 18, 19 and 20.

I didn’t go past 20, but the only gaps were Belfast (which Boris never got around to building the bridge to), Liverpool (plenty of debate about their history on the XC network on this forum), Hull (unimportant place up north so nobody cares) and Bradford which has had nothing but a good kicking from the railway for decades.

In short, XC is and should be a high value link between most of the largest and important economic centres of the UK.

Not unimportant then, but definitely under invested and neglected.

This government will be gone soon, let’s see what the next one can deliver to those outside the M25.

 

[jagardner1984]

An old political cynic like me might point out some directed investment in Cross Country could be highlighted by the “levelling up department” as examples of some explicitly non London expenditure.

Which in the context of X gazillion being spent on Crossrail, Thameslink, the London end of HS2 … might be somewhat politically useful.

 

[Killingworth]

An old political cynic like me might point out some directed investment in Cross Country could be highlighted by the “levelling up department” as examples of some explicitly non London expenditure.

Which in the context of X gazillion being spent on Crossrail, Thameslink, the London end of HS2 … might be somewhat politically useful.

Like ordering some bi-modes as follow on orders to those for EMR. By the time they'd likely arrive they could be able to use the wires between Sheffield and Derby and from Leeds or Doncaster going north to Edinburgh and Glasgow. Possibly more wires planned by then.