Cross Country HST withdrawals?

[DanNCL]

This is not the speculative section. This is happening, in October.

This thread was in the speculative section before it was established that this was definitely happening.

 

[12LDA28C]

This thread was in the speculative section before it was established that this was definitely happening.

Ah, wasn't aware of that as the announcement was made on Thursday afternoon so assumed it was already confirmed before this thread was started.

 

[Tetchytyke]

There’s always going to be a mismatch in thinking between bean counters and train enthusiasts when it comes to HSTs. The fact of the matter is that they are very expensive to operate and are not getting any younger. Times are tough financially and the tide is turning on the TOCs HST fleets across the country

Indeed, but the time to bin them was three or four years ago before the expensive carriage modifications, not now. But since when have DfT ever done anything the sensible way. Spending a fortune on the carriages then immediately scrapping them, that’s the DfT way.

Still, Loganair and EasyJet will be laughing. The worse XC gets, the more customers just fall into the airlines’ laps.

 

[Meerkat]

Indeed, but the time to bin them was three or four years ago before the expensive carriage modifications, not now. But since when have DfT ever done anything the sensible way. Spending a fortune on the carriages then immediately scrapping them, that’s the DfT way.

Still, Loganair and EasyJet will be laughing. The worse XC gets, the more customers just fall into the airlines’ laps.

You mean before a pandemic and major war rather changed circumstances?

 

[JonathanH]

Indeed, but the time to bin them was three or four years ago before the expensive carriage modifications, not now.

The revenue three to four years ago justified the modifications on the HSTs, not least because their diagrams were specifically set around high revenue flows at peak time into Birmingham and Leeds, and any potential replacement rolling stock was a long way off.

The revenue now means they can't be afforded, and neither can additional rolling stock.

 

[Christmas]

Indeed, but the time to bin them was three or four years ago before the expensive carriage modifications, not now. But since when have DfT ever done anything the sensible way. Spending a fortune on the carriages then immediately scrapping them, that’s the DfT way.

Still, Loganair and EasyJet will be laughing. The worse XC gets, the more customers just fall into the airlines’ laps.

Correct. The full service from Glasgow Central hasn't returned. Easyjet to Bristol airport is far more likely now.

I think Glasgow Central only saw one evening HST arrival latterly, running empty back to Craigentinny. It has always made me wonder why it couldn't have run in service, calling at Haymarket and terminating at Waverley to let the guard off. At least providing something of a service. XC seems to be a well used TOC but way down the list on the DFT pecking order.

You mean before a pandemic and major war rather changed circumstances?

I'm not sure what the war in Ukraine has to do with the UK domestic rail situation...

 

[Meerkat]

I'm not sure what the war in Ukraine has to do with the UK domestic rail situation...

Apart from the economic effects and fuel costs?

 

[Tetchytyke]

You mean before a pandemic and major war rather changed circumstances?

Depends if you believe that passenger numbers truly are reduced. I’m sceptical- to put it mildly- given my experiences as a leisure passenger. Whenever I’m in the UK XC appears very full, to the extent I actively avoid it as I quite like sitting down.

I’d also be sceptical about whether HSTs are more expensive to run that Voyagers. After all, a HST set has two engines to fuel but the equivalent 2x220 set has eight.

The revenue now means they can't be afforded, and neither can additional rolling stock.

That’s the DfT’s line and they’re sticking to it.

Voyagers are packed like the Delhi metro but there’s no revenue. Hmm. Maybe I’m getting cynical in my old age, but something doesn’t tally.

 

[Meerkat]

Depends if you believe that passenger numbers truly are reduced. I’m sceptical- to put it mildly- given my experiences as a leisure passenger. Whenever I’m in the UK XC appears very full, to the extent I actively avoid it as I quite like sitting down.

It's a radically reduced service though isn't it, such that being equally crowded as before would still be a reduction in numbers?

 

[class397tpe]

Depends if you believe that passenger numbers truly are reduced. I’m sceptical- to put it mildly- given my experiences as a leisure passenger. Whenever I’m in the UK XC appears very full, to the extent I actively avoid it as I quite like sitting down.

I’d also be sceptical about whether HSTs are more expensive to run that Voyagers. After all, a HST set has two engines to fuel but the equivalent 2x220 set has eight.


That’s the DfT’s line and they’re sticking to it.

Voyagers are packed like the Delhi metro but there’s no revenue. Hmm. Maybe I’m getting cynical in my old age, but something doesn’t tally.

If the HSTs are really being removed with no replacements, and the existing voyagers are expected to cover... Combined with the uplift in service from the May timetable change, this is going to cause absolutely catastrophic overcrowding.

 

[XCTurbostar]

If the HSTs are really being removed with no replacements, and the existing voyagers are expected to cover... Combined with the uplift in service from the May timetable change, this is going to cause absolutely catastrophic overcrowding.

Almost certainly. Although the Dft could just authorise AXC to lease more Voyagers so once withdrawn the HSTs will be gone for good.

 

[class397tpe]

It's a radically reduced service though isn't it, such that being equally crowded as before would still be a reduction in numbers?

It's the same stock as before though right, so if it's just as busy then means that the numbers on the trains they still run have increased to fill the double voyagers. Still carrying the same amount of people, but longer trains on less services.

Problem with it is that especially on the NE-SW leg, where previously you'd have 2 single voyagers an hour, now you have 1 train an hour which half the time is a single voyager, causing even worse overcrowding than before.

Almost certainly. Although the Dft could just authorise AXC to lease more Voyagers so once withdrawn the HSTs will be gone for good.

Hopefully! Considering how overcrowded their trains are, and the fact they barely sell advance tickets so most people are on expensive flexible tickets, something really isn't computing with their finances

 

[JonathanH]

Almost certainly. Although the Dft could just authorise AXC to lease more Voyagers so once withdrawn the HSTs will be gone for good.

You make it sound so simple.

The DfT needs a business case and evidence that the additional costs on leasing more stock would immediately be met by increased revenue. The DfT's budget is finite because that is what has been set by the Treasury.

Cutting costs is a more certain way of meeting a budget than increasing costs and hoping that revenue will increase to meet those costs.

 

[XCTurbostar]

The DfT's budget is finite because that is what has been set by the Treasury.

The Dft certainly has an interesting way of managing their 'budget' since SWR and GA will both be swimming in Aventras when deliveries are complete.

 

[gabrielhj07]

I’m pleased to report that 1V58 GLC-PNZ is a few seats off full and standing just departed Leeds. A 2+7 HST is just about coping with demand off peak here.

The 9 car Voyager heading North a few minutes before with 1S37 was similarly busy.

Apart from the economic effects and fuel costs?

The wholesale price of diesel is around 7p higher than it was in early 2013, and has been on its way down.

(Source: https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/advice/fuel-watch/)
(Graph shows wholesale, VAT, and non-VAT price of diesel over the last 10 years.)

The Dft certainly has an interesting way of managing their 'budget' since SWR and GA will both be swimming in Aventras when deliveries are complete.

Ordered of course at a time when commuting demand was such that they would be required in large numbers.

 

[JonathanH]

The Dft certainly has an interesting way of managing their 'budget' since SWR and GA will both be swimming in Aventras when deliveries are complete.

Yes, and those costs won't be helping the DfT to find more money to support the XC service. Ultimately there is one pool of funding for the railway.

 

[Rhydgaled]

I want to use the railways as much as possible, at its best it’s the best way to travel by far. But I feel like I’m being forced onto the roads by the DfT as the railways are made less convenient, less reliable, and less affordable every passing year.

Rail is becoming less comfortable as well - I too feel the DfT is trying to force me onto the roads (but buses are being cut too, so really I think they want me to stay at home all the time or get a driving license and buy a car).

There’s always going to be a mismatch in thinking between bean counters and train enthusiasts when it comes to HSTs. The fact of the matter is that they are very expensive to operate and are not getting any younger. Times are tough financially and the tide is turning on the TOCs HST fleets across the country. I suspect Scotrail will be in rundown phase in the not too distant future and will be the last operator of them.

Indeed, but the time to bin them was three or four years ago before the expensive carriage modifications, not now.

Agreed, now is not the time to bin them given the expensive door mods. etc. - if they had just given a derrogation instead then replacing them with the ICWC Voyagers once the new 805s/807s come in would have made sense.

The revenue three to four years ago justified the modifications on the HSTs, not least because their diagrams were specifically set around high revenue flows at peak time into Birmingham and Leeds, and any potential replacement rolling stock was a long way off.

The revenue now means they can't be afforded, and neither can additional rolling stock.

'Unaffordable'? No - they just choose not to pay for it - they are still spending £billions on road-building projects of the sort the Welsh Government's expert review panel have recently concluded are unsustainable.

 

[Meerkat]

Unaffordable'? No - they just choose not to pay for it - they are still spending £billions on road-building projects of the sort the Welsh Government's expert review panel have recently concluded are unsustainable.

Roads are unsustainable but carrying on running old diesel trains is?

 

[jagardner1984]

Roads are unsustainable but carrying on running old diesel trains is?

I feel in general going forward there will need to be much more granular detail of, on an average of these X Cross Country diagram, this type of rolling stock at this level of seat occupancy emits this much CO2, fuel consumption etc per passenger mile.

That should give a much more informed spreadsheet hit list of those diesel routes that would benefit first from electrification / bi-modes / new (old) rolling stock.

Generally speaking in a world where you have companies run for profit operating, but not with any real incentive to generate profit, running the fewest number of shorter trains the shortest distance will clearly be in your financial interests, the passengers are merely an afterthought in the whole process.

It also occurs to me specifically for XC, in straightened times, lobbying at DfT by local MPs for local or intercity services will always be louder. Thinking of Andy Burnham and Avanti, or in my area on Scotrail etc. Cross Country in most areas is not the core local or intercity service, and its issues are harder to solve than “10000 extra seats per week for *insert name of marginal constituency*” that generate the press releases they like.

 

[Wyrleybart]

WHAT! Not long ago I read in Modern Railways that the number of XC HST diagrams would be increased once an ongoing overhaul programme had been completed (also I think there was something about an additional pair of power cars so that the additional diagrams aren't asking for unrealisticlly high availability from the fleet). But, before those additional diagrams could even be delivered, we are now hearing the whole fleet is to be withdrawn...


If XC don't get the ex-Avanti Voyagers (or refurbish them to match the XC fleet) then in terms of seats I could actually reserve with confidence that I'll have a view out of the window reduces from a few (the tables near the middle of the mark 3 coaches, which I'm pretty sure are ok) to zero if the IC125s go since I don't think the XC seat plans give you the information necessary to avoid pillar-block.

Since we're in the speculative section, I will add that in my view XC should have kept their small pool of IC125s (with with proposed increased diagrams noted above) until such time as further electrification frees up some class 800s which (reformed into 8-car sets) would replace XC's IC125s and some of the 22x fleet. Any additional 22x becoming available should also have gone to XC - not to replace IC125s but to:

• entirely eliminate operation of single 4-car class 220/221/222 sets (by semi-permanently coupling units into pairs and possibly reforming some units into longer sets and storing/scrapping the redundant driving vehicles this would create)
• increase the number of services on the Plymouth-Edinburgh route formed of 7 coaches (a mix of IC125s and 7-car class 222s)
• entirely replace the class 170s on the Cardiff-Nottingham route with 5-car class 222s (refurbished to replace all/most of the first class accomodation with standard class)
• refurbish the entire 22x fleet to a lower-density interior (to include more table bays aligned with the windows) but without changing the seats.

A lot of assumptions there.
Who mentioned 222s would be transferred to XC ?
Semi permanently coupling voyagers together serves absolutely no purpose. It has been tried before on railways and abandoned. I remember a small batch of BR class 20s being semi permanently coupled together (extra balancing air hose taped to the vac pipes). Lasted months and I bet noone remembers them now.

Replacement of turbostars with voyager type trains is a downgrade in seat capacity. Turbostars need to continue their job until life expiry then be replaced by bimodes to run on AC for Nottingham-Derby Birmingham-Bromsgrove and STJ-Cardiff, as well as Ely - Stansted and the dwell and climb out of Birmingham to Proof House.

 

[Towers]

The DfT has very obviously never given a toss about XC, travelling with them having been an appalling experience for many years now, so it shouldn't really come as any surprise that in a new chapter where the DfT now doesn't give a toss about any part of the railway network at all, things are going to decline still further and go from bad to worse.

This is a real shame, partly because we're about to lose one of the vanishingly few opportunities to undertake long distance rail travel in the UK on appropriately high quality rolling stock, but more importantly of course because it represents again the 'cinderella' era that our railway is descending into. We can only hope it might be relatively short term.

 

[Watershed]

I’d also be sceptical about whether HSTs are more expensive to run that Voyagers. After all, a HST set has two engines to fuel but the equivalent 2x220 set has eight.

Whilst having fewer, more easily accessible, engines is a little bit more efficient, the higher HP output of the Voyagers is by far the biggest reason why they use more fuel per coach.

Despite this, the Voyagers still cost less to run and maintain.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Roads are unsustainable but carrying on running old diesel trains is?

I doubt the Welsh Government's roads review made any comment on diesel trains, but I would suggest that both building new road capacity and carrying on running diesel trains indefinitely are unsustainable.

Semi permanently coupling voyagers together serves absolutely no purpose.

I just meant normal multiple working of two Voyagers, no extra wires or anything between the units but leaving them coupled all the time. I won't respond to the rest of your post since this topic has now been moved out of the speculative section so it is no longer appropriate.

This is a real shame, partly because we're about to lose one of the vanishingly few opportunities to undertake long distance rail travel in the UK on appropriately high quality rolling stock, but more importantly of course because it represents again the 'cinderella' era that our railway is descending into. We can only hope it might be relatively short term.

Agreed, although I think the 9-car class 800s/801s/802s have potential to be 'appropriately high quality' if refitted with better seats/interiors (although it would be better if they'd had plug doors).

 

[DarloRich]

Sad news. Sad that good trains are being withdrawn but sadder that the capcity they offer isnt being replaced.

This means and already horrible xc travel experiance becomes worse!

 

[irish_rail]

I'd say the SW to NE route will be pretty much unusable by this time next year. What a terrible shame. And as another poster points out, Anglia and SWT continue to get newish trains replaced with even newer ones. Meanwhile XC has to make do. It stinks. Way too political. Surrey and East Anglia probably represent (along with the East of England and East mids) the Tories only hopes of retaining some seats at the next General election.

 

[JonathanH]

And as another poster points out, Anglia and SWT continue to get newish trains replaced with even newer ones.

Anglia's new trains are replacing units dating back to 1990 and before. SWR's new trains are replacing units built in the 1980s. The removal of 379s and 707s is merely for fleet standardisation. 458s are older than Voyagers as well.

 

[AndrewE]

Rail is becoming less comfortable as well - I too feel the DfT is trying to force me onto the roads (but buses are being cut too, so really I think they want me to stay at home all the time or get a driving license and buy a car).

The DfT clearly don't give a toss for any decarbonising agenda, let alone an integrated transport policy. "Policy? Integrated? Sorry, we don't recognise those words!"

I feel in general going forward there will need to be much more granular detail of, on an average of these X Cross Country diagram, this type of rolling stock at this level of seat occupancy emits this much CO2, fuel consumption etc per passenger mile.

That should give a much more informed spreadsheet hit list of those diesel routes that would benefit first from electrification / bi-modes / new (old) rolling stock.

Dream on! They don't care - beyond the shortest of short-term numbers.

The DfT has very obviously never given a toss about XC, travelling with them having been an appalling experience for many years now, so it shouldn't really come as any surprise that in a new chapter where the DfT now doesn't give a toss about any part of the railway network at all, things are going to decline still further and go from bad to worse.

This is a real shame, partly because we're about to lose one of the vanishingly few opportunities to undertake long distance rail travel in the UK on appropriately high quality rolling stock, but more importantly of course because it represents again the 'cinderella' era that our railway is descending into. We can only hope it might be relatively short term.

Until the Treasury are kicked up the backside and told that their Thatcherite stranglehold on the country cannot be afforded we shall continue to live in the same (1930s) nightmare. The trouble is that - perversely - every disaster increases GDP

I think they should be given responsibility (and held accountable) for the country's Carbon budget, with performance-related pay and deductions every time our emissions creep further ahead of the targets. It's no good politicians issuing brave words but doing nothing and the Treasury vetoing the few things they do try...

 

[irish_rail]

Anglia's new trains are replacing units dating back to 1990 and before. SWR's new trains are replacing units built in the 1980s. The removal of 379s and 707s is merely for fleet standardisation. 458s are older than Voyagers as well.

Perhaps, but the need is far far less. Life for passengers on SWT or Anglia wouldn't really be much worse where the new trains not to come in. XC passengers suffering will be far far greater.

 

[adc82140]

Perhaps, but the need is far far less. Life for passengers on SWT or Anglia wouldn't really be much worse where the new trains not to come in. XC passengers suffering will be far far greater.

Have I fallen over and woken up in 1998?

 

[irish_rail]

Have I fallen over and woken up in 1998?

OK SWR or greater anglia if u prefer!