Cross Country HST withdrawals?

[irish_rail]

Utter tosh. If we say London is number 1 in the table of UK cities by population size, then XC serves numbers 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13, 15, 17, 18, 19 and 20.

I didn’t go past 20, but the only gaps were Belfast (which Boris never got around to building the bridge to), Liverpool (plenty of debate about their history on the XC network on this forum), Hull (unimportant place up north so nobody cares) and Bradford which has had nothing but a good kicking from the railway for decades.

In short, XC is and should be a high value link between most of the largest and important economic centres of the UK.

Not unimportant then, but definitely under invested and neglected.

This government will be gone soon, let’s see what the next one can deliver to those outside the M25.

Good post. Brings home the London centric reality we live in, even in post covid times where if anything London is declining, certainly not booming anymore. Yet still the politicians bang on about levelling up.....

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Mar 2023 ==

Indeed it needs training of traincrew at Bristol TM, Gloucester, Westbury, Exeter, Plymouth, Par and Penzance all work trains on that corridor. In terms of depot training it would be needed at St Philips Marsh, Laira and Long Rock.

You could argue there is no real reason for Gloucester Westbury or Par to be involved, the service could easily be resourced with Bristol, Exeter Plymouth and Penzance crews, but the First group "in" thing is to have lots and lots of depots covering the same routes over short distances. Although I agree the 180s are pointless due to the size of the fleet.

 

[class 9]

The franchise-era modifications would have been at TOC/Rosco cost, not DfT (public) money.
The Rosco has had 25+ years of good revenues out of the HST fleet, at little risk to themselves.

The power door fitting was a £20 million investment from the DfT, it was on XCs company accounts a few years back.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

I’m surprised at how sad I am at this news, feel far more disappointed than I thought I would be.

 

[Clarence Yard]

At the moment it looks as if the HST sets will be going without any replacement because that is the way the DfT wants it, irrespective of the consequences. We know from the GWR direct award negotiating experiences that the Treasury doesn’t value seasonal traffic when it costs resources and it would rather it just went away.

Getting rid of the XC sets is all to do with reducing DfT Rail Opex and not renewing small fleets at lease renewal is seen as an easy way to do it.

As for 180 units, don’t go there. Amongst other issues, they are now fairly rotten.

 

[Meerkat]

Part of that question, ie about the different ROSCOs, was answered earlier in post #72. But a competition still requires the need for extra stock to be accepted first…

Ah yes.
But if you want competitive bidding you want to look in no hurry, such that you can wait for the 222s, and make sure they understand that ‘neither’ is absolutely an option you will accept.

 

[Snow1964]

Appears XC are running service from Taunton to Bristol (via Westbury)with a 220 or 221 Mon-Fri this week, guessing it is staff training

Suggests training up drivers in SW

Realtime Trains | 5Z22 1105 Taunton to Bristol Barton Hill W.R.D. | 06/03/2023

Real-time train running information for 5Z22 1105 departure from Taunton to Bristol Barton Hill W.R.D. on 06/03/2023. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

 

[John R]

Appears XC are running service from Taunton to Bristol (via Westbury)with a 220 or 221 Mon-Fri this week, guessing it is staff training

Suggests training up drivers in SW

Realtime Trains | 5Z22 1105 Taunton to Bristol Barton Hill W.R.D. | 06/03/2023

Real-time train running information for 5Z22 1105 departure from Taunton to Bristol Barton Hill W.R.D. on 06/03/2023. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

That sounds like refresher training before a period of diversions that way when the direct route is closed.

 

[fgwrich]

The IC125 trains are now 40+ years old and well past their sell-by date; they are ready for the scrapyard.

That sounds like refresher training before a period of diversions that way when the direct route is closed.

Sounds very much like a switch from the pair of Power Cars recently doing that to a Voyager.

 

[Tetchytyke]

The franchise-era modifications would have been at TOC/Rosco cost, not DfT (public) money.

And paid for by the TOC with enhanced lease payments under the length of the agreement. So my point stands: they throw a load of money at the trains then decide to scrap them. Gormless.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Mar 2023 ==

It is preferable to concentrate on enhancing and developing services to/from London, which as the capital city generates the most demand for rail services, as distinct from secondary cross-country routes.

The huge expansion in cross-country domestic air travel indicates otherwise. But hey, the DfT know better than EasyJet.

 

[daodao]

huge expansion in cross-country domestic air travel

What huge expansion?

Manchester Airport now only has the following air services to places in mainland GB:

• Aberdeen, Inverness, Newquay (Loganair)
• London Heathrow (British Airways, largely for onward connections)
• Southampton (Eastern Airways)

The only mainland GB destination now served from Cardiff Airport is Edinburgh (Loganair).

The only mainland GB destination served (from end March 2023) from East Midlands Airport is Newquay (Eastern Airways).

There are no longer any mainland GB destinations served from Leeds Airport.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The direness of XC is mostly causing car journeys (and secondarily travel via London, which is what I'd often do). HS2 will basically kill the Manchester part of XC as a long distance service - going via Old Oak will be far quicker and probably cheaper. I don't think it's causing much flying.

 

[Tetchytyke]

What huge expansion?

Look at the EasyJet route map. Newcastle, Birmingham, Bristol all have significant domestic traffic.

I suspect you know this, hence your choice of Manchester.

 

[Ash Bridge]

What huge expansion?

Manchester Airport now only has the following air services to places in mainland GB:

• Aberdeen, Inverness, Newquay (Loganair)
• London Heathrow (British Airways, largely for onward connections)
• Southampton (Eastern Airways)

The only mainland GB destination now served from Cardiff Airport is Edinburgh (Loganair).

The only mainland GB destination served (from end March 2023) from East Midlands Airport is Newquay (Eastern Airways).

There are no longer any mainland GB destinations served from Leeds Airport.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think you omitted Easyjets Manchester - Newquay service?

 

[HamworthyGoods]

Look at the EasyJet route map. Newcastle, Birmingham, Bristol all have significant domestic traffic.

I suspect you know this, hence your choice of Manchester.

Newcastle has Bristol

Bristol has Edinburgh and Glasgow (long standing routes that have run for years), Inverness and Newcastle.

Birmingham has Edinburgh and Glasgow only which isn’t a cross country flow anyway.

I don’t see a huge wave of domestic flights targeting Cross Country routes here. Apart from the traditional domestic routes to Scotland which have been traditional low cost carrier flows the only route I see is Newcastle to Bristol.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I don’t see a huge wave of domestic flights targeting Cross Country routes here. Apart from the traditional domestic routes to Scotland which have been traditional low cost carrier flows the only route I see is Newcastle to Bristol.

EasyJet target Scotland-Birmingham and Scotland-Bristol, and Newcastle-Bristol is twice daily. Loganair run twice daily Newcastle-Southampton and daily Newcastle-Exeter, various airlines fly to Newquay.

If we’re serious about cutting aviation, there needs to be robust cross-country train links (whether this is under the Cross Country franchise or otherwise).

My point is that the attitude that we should focus entirely on London and that cross-country links don’t matter is why we’re in this mess.

Scrapping the HSTs may make sense if they’re being replaced by, for instance, the Avanti 221s. But just scrapping them without a replacement is idiotic. They’re part of the fleet for a reason, and XC was horrifically overcrowded even in Virgin days.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

If we’re serious about cutting aviation, there needs to be robust cross-country train links (whether this is under the Cross Country franchise or otherwise).

My point is that the attitude that we should focus entirely on London and that cross-country links don’t matter is why we’re in this mess.

Which is why hourly services between Plymouth and the North East and Scotland and also between Bournemouth and Manchester are being restored in May 2023. Also being restored are some of the Reading to North East services and the lunchtime arrival and departure in Torbay.

There was a resumption of some Bristol to Manchester workings in the last timetable change.

This doesn’t look like a franchise taking on deep cuts.


A fleet of 5 trains which covers 4 services a day is very inefficient and the removal of this fleet is very similar to what BR would have done in a recession which affected passenger numbers.

It should be noted the inference that the 2 hourly extensions of north east services from Reading to Southampton isn’t returning so will cascade some stock to replace the little used HSTs.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Scrapping the HSTs may make sense if they’re being replaced by, for instance, the Avanti 221s. But just scrapping them without a replacement is idiotic. They’re part of the fleet for a reason, and XC was horrifically overcrowded even in Virgin days.

XC hasn't been right since Virgin made a mess of it - it's been over 20 years and there's still been no desire to fix it, which is throwing away custom (though mostly to the car). And there are lots of obvious, relatively cheap options to fix it, too. It's really quite frustrating.

 

[Tetchytyke]

A fleet of 5 trains which covers 4 services a day is very inefficient and the removal of this fleet is very similar to what BR would have done in a recession which affected passenger numbers.

They’re a non-standard fleet which always causes issues- Arriva tried to minimise their use for this reason. But the capacity they bring is required. Even if passenger numbers have dropped off (I’m sceptical), they’ve not regressed to pre-2005 levels, and XC overcrowding was horrific even back in Virgin days.

If they’re not being replaced then we’re going to be back to 4-car 220s running Edinburgh-Plymouth and it’ll make the Tokyo Metro look like the Marie Celeste.

XC hasn't been right since Virgin made a mess of it - it's been over 20 years and there's still been no desire to fix it

Virgin showed there was a lot of untapped demand, and that hasn’t changed since. 2x220 an hour was the same as one hourly 47+MkII, but a reliable timetable attracted a load of new custom.

Sadly the DfT seem intent on going back to the 90s-era Cross Country network with knackered trains and erratic timetables.

 

[AndrewE]

Which is why hourly services between Plymouth and the North East and Scotland and also between Bournemouth and Manchester are being restored in May 2023. Also being restored are some of the Reading to North East services and the lunchtime arrival and departure in Torbay.

but a "better" service with the same number of seats is a bad idea - see operation Princess which repeated at least 2 identical mistakes.

There was a resumption of some Bristol to Manchester workings in the last timetable change.

This doesn’t look like a franchise taking on deep cuts.

A fleet of 5 trains which covers 4 services a day is very inefficient

so run them more, and double up the length of the regularly-overcrowded trains.

and the removal of this fleet is very similar to what BR would have done in a recession which affected passenger numbers.

There is a lot of argument whether we really are "in a recession affecting passenger numbers!"

 

[Bletchleyite]

A fleet of 5 trains which covers 4 services a day is very inefficient

Certainly. But 5 Voyagers would offer a lot more.

 

[Meerkat]

Is there really any crossover in people taking planes vs XC - isn’t it going to be almost entirely time-based, something XC is unlikely to ever compete on?

 

[swt_passenger]

It should be noted the inference that the 2 hourly extensions of north east services from Reading to Southampton isn’t returning so will cascade some stock to replace the little used HSTs.

IIRC correctly when the Reading to Southampton extensions first began it was found that they used only one extra unit per day. So that doesn’t make a vast difference .

On the earlier internal airline competition point I don’t see Southampton increasing anything specifically to compete for XC passengers, their overall number of internal services is significantly reduced since 2020, Southampton took a big hit with FlyBe failing twice, and that certainly reduced the Newcastle service.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

IIRC correctly when the Reading to Southampton extensions first began it was found that they used only one extra unit per day. So that doesn’t make a vast difference .

So that’s one of the two units needed to replace the HSTs….

 

[Bletchleyite]

Is there really any crossover in people taking planes vs XC - isn’t it going to be almost entirely time-based, something XC is unlikely to ever compete on?

Some of it will be time based but not all of it, just as with trains from Scotland to London. But realistically most of the competition is with the car.

What XC could do is offer a quality, low density seating arrangement, quality Wifi and mobile reception repeaters and decent catering, to make the train a good quality working environment rather than trying to be quickest, which XC will never be. But a Voyager isn't that.

 

[cactustwirly]

Which is why hourly services between Plymouth and the North East and Scotland and also between Bournemouth and Manchester are being restored in May 2023. Also being restored are some of the Reading to North East services and the lunchtime arrival and departure in Torbay.

There was a resumption of some Bristol to Manchester workings in the last timetable change.

This doesn’t look like a franchise taking on deep cuts.


A fleet of 5 trains which covers 4 services a day is very inefficient and the removal of this fleet is very similar to what BR would have done in a recession which affected passenger numbers.

It should be noted the inference that the 2 hourly extensions of north east services from Reading to Southampton isn’t returning so will cascade some stock to replace the little used HSTs.

But those 5 trains create a huge capacity boost, the 7 car HST are equivalent to 10 double Voyagers.
With a ToC which has long standing capacity issues.
Those services are effectively pointless if you can't physically board them...

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Mar 2023 ==

Some of it will be time based but not all of it, just as with trains from Scotland to London. But realistically most of the competition is with the car.

What XC could do is offer a quality, low density seating arrangement, quality Wifi and mobile reception repeaters and decent catering, to make the train a good quality working environment rather than trying to be quickest, which XC will never be. But a Voyager isn't that.

XC needs high density trains if anything.
Even a 4 car turbo would be preferable to a 220 currently

 

[TheWalrus]

I was going to suggest XC taking on the remaining Class 180s but having read some of the other comments on the thread it looks as if it’s already been suggested and is probably a no-go! It would seem to go against the idea of getting rid of micro fleets.

I did also consider when some DMUs become available, they could take over the IET diagrams, now operating between Cardiff and Penzance. This would release currently for (I believe) bi-mode I ETs for Cross country. However, this would still be a micro fleet although the advantage of this would be they could use the wires when operating under the wires as they do now quite a lot.

I think in this slightly longer term (i.e., not as soon as May!) 222s would be ideal for cross country routes when released by EMR. It’s been awhile since I’ve travelled on one, but I seem to remember them being a little bit better than the voyagers! Also they would also be able to give the additional capacity needed on XC and an improved customer experience. Although I am aware they are not currently compatible with 220 and 221 units, but then neither are the HSTS.

 

[Meerkat]

What XC could do is offer a quality, low density seating arrangement, quality Wifi and mobile reception repeaters and decent catering, to make the train a good quality working environment rather than trying to be quickest, which XC will never be.

But how can it do that without being reservation only, with other services taking the short distance loads around the cities?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Mar 2023 ==

When are the XC voyager leases up? If there are competing Voyager/meridian fleets might get the cost down enough to pay for a few more?

 

[Trainbike46]

But how can it do that without being reservation only, with other services taking the short distance loads around the cities?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Mar 2023 ==

When are the XC voyager leases up? If there are competing Voyager/meridian fleets might get the cost down enough to pay for a few more?

If going for that, pull in some more competition by also considering new bimode units (80x, FLIRT/SMILE derivative, other manufacturers products), with a more suitable, higher density layout, a shop and options for extra carriages to extend sets (from 5 to say 7 or 9 cars) when the improvements inevitably lead to an increase in passenger numbers - I think it is not inconcievable that the total cost (so leases, fuel, staffing, etc.) will be lower for new than for any combo of 22x units - though the only way to be sure would be to actually get bids in!

 

[Bletchleyite]

If going for that, pull in some more competition by also considering new bimode units (80x, FLIRT/SMILE derivative, other manufacturers products), with a more suitable, higher density layout, a shop and options for extra carriages to extend sets (from 5 to say 7 or 9 cars) when the improvements inevitably lead to an increase in passenger numbers - I think it is not inconcievable that the total cost (so leases, fuel, staffing, etc.) will be lower for new than for any combo of 22x units - though the only way to be sure would be to actually get bids in!

I think it's fairly easy to spend 5 minutes looking at Germany and seeing what rolling stock XC should actually have, to be honest (the whole of DB's non-high-speed IC/ICE network is basically identical to XC as it's not a capital-centric country). But if you want a UK approximation even the bog standard DfT-designed 80x would be fine.

I guess it makes things fairly clear that DB have very little influence over Arriva!

 

[cactustwirly]

I think it's fairly easy to spend 5 minutes looking at Germany and seeing what rolling stock XC should actually have, to be honest (the whole of DB's non-high-speed IC/ICE network is basically identical to XC as it's not a capital-centric country). But if you want a UK approximation even the bog standard DfT-designed 80x would be fine.

I guess it makes things fairly clear that DB have very little influence over Arriva!

Germany's IC services are horrifically inefficient. They're all loco hauled which is going to be very expensive to run.

Just needs the Voyagers scrapping and taking on the Meridians and a fresh order of 80x bi modes for NE-SW