GWR stock shortage: potential solutions

[Energy]

The long term solution if the 80X reliability does not improve is to buy brand new trains to improve capacity (and I don’t mean buy new Hitachi stock). But that’s going to be expensive. And something that the current government would not allow.

That is not going to happen, it would be a waste of public funds.

The most worrying thing from my point of view is what is the DaFT going to do to try to cope with any increase in passenger numbers. Do they actually have any idea?

My interpretation is that the 802s on Cardiff to Penzance are a short term measure, should additional capacity be needed elsewhere they could be moved back and replaced by the new regional stock.

If Hitachi have a lack of suitable spare parts now, what’s the situation going to like in five, ten, fifteen years?

IIRC the supplier for the original supplier for the DSD pedal has gone bust or is unable to supply it anymore. The different design was agreed with DfT/Secretary of State for Transport as in the train supply agreement (apart from the 802s).

If Hitachi, GWR and Network Rail can’t get their respective acts together, did the DaFT include any “get out” clause in the Hitachi contract?

There are exemptions for Hitachi such as a train being damaged while in GWR's possession, the get out for the DfT would be Hitachi continually failing to meet contractual requirements, though they likely negotiate compensation rather than outright cancelling the contract.

Going by what @Clarence Yard has said above Hitachi are now meeting the required number of trains with shortforming being due to excused units (trains damaged while in GWR's possession) and action short of strike

 

[JonathanH]

The Cardiff to Penzance IETs are short term measure until regional fleet replacement happens which will release them.

I'm not sure that actually follows. Has it actually been confirmed? The IETs could easily do Cardiff to Penzance for the longer term, as this reduces the required size of the regional fleet replacement, and potentially fits well with Laira's new role as well.

 

[Wychwood93]

I'm not sure that actually follows. Has it actually been confirmed? The IETs could easily do Cardiff to Penzance for the longer term, as this reduces the required size of the regional fleet replacement, and potentially fits well with Laira's new role as well.

The previous two posts to this are somewhat conflated. #annetts-key batted out a few very good points and #Energy batted back. It would be good to see a plan for the regional fleets - Cardiff/Pompey etc. - much discussed elsewhere - actually getting somewhere! In the short term it is very/more than unlikely that financial provision will be made to either extend some of the 5-cars to 9, as favoured, very sensibly, by #irish-rail and likewise to have additional 9-car sets provided. The regional fleets, if there was a pecking order, would have quite a wait for pecking to commence. The whole mish-mash that the rail industry has become, speaking as retired staff, saddens me.

 

[Energy]

I'm not sure that actually follows. Has it actually been confirmed? The IETs could easily do Cardiff to Penzance for the longer term, as this reduces the required size of the regional fleet replacement, and potentially fits well with Laira's new role as well.

I've updated it to make it clear that its a potential option and me speculating, not fact.

The previous two posts to this are somewhat conflated. #annetts-key batted out a few very good points and #Energy batted back.

The only criticism of @Annetts key 's post from me is that I think completely exiting the contract with Hitachi would be an over the top measure, and very difficult to do. Otherwise its me speculating and a bit more detail (well from my memory at least) around the DSD pedal change.

Personally, I think the train length (number of seats and number of cars/carriages) should be specified in the public timetable. Said timetable must be valid for at least 12 months. If a railway operator fails to provide ANY part of the advertised service (train cancelled, short formed or less seats than planned, a car/carriage out of use, terminated short, started at a different origin, delayed by more than twenty minutes at ANY station that it’s scheduled/timetabled to stop at or where less than ⅔ of the toilets are working) every passenger should be entitled to a full refund or a voucher to the same value. No messing around with delay repay.

It wouldn't be a refund as the railway has fulfilled its obligation of getting you from A to B. Compensation for a short formed train is a good idea but it needs to be a sliding scale, short formed from 6 to 5 cars is a lot different than from a 9 car IET to a 5 car.

Train length is shown in the timetable at WMR, I suppose a potential issue at GWR is that 5 car sets are considered half a 9 car, so going from a 10 car to a 9 car wouldn't be considered an issue.

That was what was in the Direct Award bid teams mind for DA3 (together with 14 802 units going from 5 to 9) but the DfT did not want to order new stock at that time.

Wasn't DA3 March 2020 - 2023? Not particularly surprising that new stock wasn't happening.

 

[irish_rail]

There I was thinking I was discussing the less than peripheral nature of some places that LNER serves. Just because there are lots of summer season visitors does not alter the fact that the permanent population of the South West is a lot smaller than the places that LNER serves, never mind that there is also tourist and seasonal traffic to a lot of those places.


As noted above, York gets 8 million visitors a year, while Oxford gets 7 million, Bath gets 6 million, Edinburgh 4 million - we could play this game forever.

Tourists are not 'population change' they are short-term visitors to an area. And whether you like it or not, other places have steadier year-round traffic flows - the kind of thing HM Treasury likes - than tourists in the South West deliver. Especially in the depths of winter, when there is a whole lot less swelling in visitor numbers going on than in July and August, no matter how many times you keep claiming people are flocking to Cornwall to get blown off their feet by an Atlantic gale at Porthleven.

As I keep telling you whernever you wax lyrical about the good old days, the knock-on effect of stock swaps at Paddington to get an HST on a Bristol, South Wales or West Country train could mean that an Oxford/Cotswold train went down to a 180 or a Turbo - even a two-car Turbo at times, all the way to Hereford. If that is your idea of things being in passengers' best interests, you have got to be joking - but as we know, so long as it's happening anywhere other than the route to Plymouth, it's not really a problem at all.

PS: has someone hacked your log-in?

First we had

And now we get

Ah jimm I was wondering when I would get your condescending response. Tell you what, come back to me when you actually get south of Oxford and experience the routes to the south west, as opposed to your commuter line to Honeybourne or wherever the hell it is the Cotswold line serves.

 

[Xavi]

It also seems to suffer from "boom and bust" over the summer/winter

True it gets busier in summer, however, ‘the season’ for tourists is mid-February to end October these days. Then there’s Christmas and New Year, so not much quieter time. Second homes have also grown traffic.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Aug 2023 ==

The trouble with never building new vehicles IET wise, is it means for the next 25 years we are going to operate pairs of IETs on a regular basis. This is inefficient and in the long run costly and wasteful. We should be aiming to reduce 10 car running as soon as possible in order to get value for money in terms of the savings of not having to double crew.
Also , should say 10x 5 car sets be lengthened to 9 car for GWR , then surely 10 x 5 car sets could be axed to go to another operator, say XC or TPE to replace loco hauled stuff, so surely the depots wouldn't be under any additional strain? So GWR would have 10 trains fewer, but 10 trains that are longer. Fewer cabs to maintain, and id imagine that would mean lower maintenance costs for GWR.

I’d like more trains or lengthened trains too. Guess I’m thinking 150s or 158s on the cheap is the most GWR might get.

The Avanti 221s are a must for XC , though I can see Treasury blocking that one too.

 

[GWVillager]

Tell you what, come back to me when you actually get south of Oxford and experience the routes to the south west, as opposed to your commuter line to Honeybourne or wherever the hell it is the Cotswold line serves.

I have to disagree here, the Cotswold Line is a key example of commuting getting priority over intercity connections on GWR. Despite the cities it serves (Hereford and Worcester) being a lengthy distance from London, the trains stop at most small intermediate stations as nothing else is provided.

Short forms or cancellations on these services are arguably worse than on other routes, as the public transport provision along the line, beyond Oxford of course, is nothing short of appalling, with the IET ‘expresses’ often being the only realistic connection places have to the outside world.

 

[irish_rail]

I have to disagree here, the Cotswold Line is a key example of commuting getting priority over intercity connections on GWR. Despite the cities it serves (Hereford and Worcester) being a lengthy distance from London, the trains stop at most small intermediate stations as nothing else is provided.

Short forms or cancellations on these services are arguably worse than on other routes, as the public transport provision along the line, beyond Oxford of course, is nothing short of appalling, with the IET ‘expresses’ often being the only realistic connection places have to the outside world.

My argument is though that a standee on the Cotswold line will almost certainly not be standing more than an hour, and in most cases much less than that. The difference compared with proper intercity trains to the south west , where a standee may be standing for several hours, and far more likely to have lots of luggage, plus children/elderly, as against the largely commuter passengers on the Cotswold.

 

[Energy]

My argument is though that a standee on the Cotswild line will almost certainly not be standing more than an hour, and in most cases much less than that. The difference compared with proper intercity trains to the south west , where a standee may be standing for several hours, and far more likely to have lots of luggage, plus children/elderly, as against the largely commuter passengers on the Cotswold.

There aren't any Hereford to London services right now anyway.

 

[Clarence Yard]

The amount of time a punter is standing is irrelevant. It’s the revenue that punter brings to the railway that determines where the stock formation priority goes.

And sometimes that means that that diagram over provides for some legs because other journeys on that diagram are where the value is. You can’t just swap units out at will.

Passenger comfort for all seasonal passengers doesn’t come into it, I’m afraid - we haven’t the resources for that these days. Those days are long gone.

 

[Benjwri]

There aren't any Hereford to London services now anyway.

Where did you get that information from? There are four departures a day on a weekday.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Aug 2023 ==

The amount of time a punter is standing is irrelevant. It’s the revenue that punter brings to the railway that determines where the stock formation priority goes.

Although arguably with GWR technically offering a seat guarantee of 50% compensation if you have to stand, that’s a 50% revenue abstraction for each standee that was booked on the train, if everyone claimed it, which I doubt even 1% of people know about.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Aug 2023 ==

My argument is though that a standee on the Cotswold line will almost certainly not be standing more than an hour, and in most cases much less than that. The difference compared with proper intercity trains to the south west , where a standee may be standing for several hours, and far more likely to have lots of luggage, plus children/elderly, as against the largely commuter passengers on the Cotswold.

The issue is having standees on the Cotswold line is all fine (arguably) till you get to Oxford, where crowds easily fill a 5 car at some times, and suddenly you’re in another situation of leaving people behind on the platform.

 

[irish_rail]

The amount of time a punter is standing is irrelevant. It’s the revenue that punter brings to the railway that determines where the stock formation priority goes.

And sometimes that means that that diagram over provides for some legs because other journeys on that diagram are where the value is. You can’t just swap units out at will.

Passenger comfort for all seasonal passengers doesn’t come into it, I’m afraid - we haven’t the resources for that these days. Those days are long gone.

As ever I respect your insight CY, but that doesn't mean I agree with it. But then I shouldn't be surprised when we are living in a country where the government feels the need to punish every one of us for its failings to manage the finances of the economy. Yes I'm being soppy, but I can't help getting upset when I see a family with young children on holiday packed into a vestibule for 3 hours. OK, they MAY not be generating as much income as a peak time commuter into Paddington, but that doesn't stop me trying to fight their corner. Sadly this country feels more and more like the Thatcher era of the 1980s , all about money wealth creation and nothing else. Sadly we are stuck with this vile government until January 2025 as well......note to self, stop giving a toss, I have a seat at the front I really shouldn't care!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Aug 2023 ==

The issue is having standees on the Cotswold line is all fine (arguably) till you get to Oxford, where crowds easily fill a 5 car at some times, and suddenly you’re in another situation of leaving people behind on the plplatform.

But those standees are almost certainly seated after Charlbury. So about 20 minutes. How often have passengers been left behind at Oxford heading west since IETs arrived? Even on a 5 car id say actually being physically unable to board on these services where there is generally no luggage etc to worry about is pretty unheard of. No space for a bike is perhaps more of an issue ill accept.
Edit, I've just re read this , you are probably referring to Eastbound. If so, then at least there is the option of a stopper to Didcot to board an IET or else the half hourly XC to Reading, again to board an IET onto Paddington. Obviously not ideal, but we are talking about a relatively small inconvenience, compared with a passenger heading to Devon or Cornwall who's wait will be at least an hour generally.

 

[Energy]

Where did you get that information from? There are four departures a day on a weekday.

Meant right now, there have been closures so RRBs from 29th July to tommorow.

 

[GWVillager]

Meant right now, there have been closures so RRBs from 29th July to tommorow.

There certainly are trains, I was on one just the other day. Some have been diverted via Cheltenham.

 

[uglymonkey]

Sometimes I think the government thinks we should be jolly grateful to have any railway west of Exeter at all and if we have any complaints just shut up about it.

 

[Energy]

There certainly are trains, I was on one just the other day. Some have been diverted via Cheltenham.

Fair enough, I only checked RTT for today which had none.

 

[irish_rail]

Sometimes I think the government thinks we should be jolly grateful to have any railway west of Exeter at all and if we have any complaints just shut up about it.

Indeed, and they are in for a shock when almost every south west constituency turns yellow or red in January 2025. But they choose to remain blissfully ignorant , and that's on them.

 

[JonathanH]

Indeed, and they are in for a shock when almost every south west constituency turns yellow or red in January 2025.

And the constituents will equally be in shock when there is no change to their railway after January 2025.

 

[GWVillager]

But those standees are almost certainly seated after Charlbury. So about 20 minutes. How often have passengers been left behind at Oxford heading west since IETs arrived? Even on a 5 car id say actually being physically unable to board on these services where there is generally no luggage etc to worry about is pretty unheard of. No space for a bike is perhaps more of an issue ill accept.
Edit, I've just re read this , you are probably referring to Eastbound. If so, then at least there is the option of a stopper to Didcot to board an IET or else the half hourly XC to Reading, again to board an IET onto Paddington. Obviously not ideal, but we are talking about a relatively small inconvenience, compared with a passenger heading to Devon or Cornwall whose wait will be at least an hour generally.

Yes, you raise a good point here and it’s certainly better to short form a Hereford train than a Penzance one. However, it is certainly not an exclusively commuter line, a large proportion of travellers beyond Moreton-in-Marsh are families, and with many services booked as 5 cars it’s often straight to cancellations. Combined with the (relatively) infrequent trains and inadequate buses the Cotswold Line is not one to cancel trains on to bolster the South Western services.

Still, we shouldn’t have to consider this of course, no utilisation of the current fleet is going to be pretty and I fully accept that keeping trains running on the Cotswold Line is going to mean a lot of pain for passengers on the Devon/Cornwall trains. But it would be considerably less than what would result from seeing towns left without any useful outside connections.

 

[uglymonkey]

Agreed, too far away, taken for granted. All "true blue" safe seats ( in the past) so no matter how much ignored, it's a "given" they will vote for us till the end of time. Unlike the "red wall" which they are grateful for and have to be rewarded (bribed?) and carrots dangled , that they would'nt dream off doing in the same way in the south west.

 

[irish_rail]

A

Agreed, too far away, taken for granted. All "true blue" safe seats ( in the past) so no matter how much ignored, it's a "given" they will vote for us till the end of time. Unlike the "red wall" which they are grateful for and have to be rewarded (bribed?) and carrots dangled , that they would'nt dream off doing in the same way in the south west.

And yet id say the Tories are less likely to get votes in the south west than the red wall now. Mind you don't see the Tories getting any seats whatsoever away from perhaps certain parts of the "far east". I'm heading way off topic now , and will a change of government help? Probably not hugely, but at least the industrial dispute will be settled and this will have a noticeable impact for long suffering passengers.

 

[Revilo]

Agreed, too far away, taken for granted. All "true blue" safe seats ( in the past) so no matter how much ignored, it's a "given" they will vote for us till the end of time. Unlike the "red wall" which they are grateful for and have to be rewarded (bribed?) and carrots dangled , that they would'nt dream off doing in the same way in the south west.

Hardly ‘taken for granted’. The Government has spend millions on upgrading the Dawlish sea wall, and reopening stations at Okehampton and Marsh Barton.

 

[irish_rail]

Hardly ‘taken for granted’. The Government has spend millions on upgrading the Dawlish sea wall, and reopening stations at Okehampton and Marsh Barton.

Dawlish needed doing , the alternative was reopen the northern route via Tavistock. As for Marsh Barton, yeah thats a real benefit for the people of Exeter......I stopped there in rush hour recently , picked up about 5 people.

 

[Ashley Hill]

Dawlish needed doing , the alternative was reopen the northern route via Tavistock. As for Marsh Barton, yeah thats a real benefit for the people of Exeter......I stopped there in rush hour recently , picked up about 5 people.

Digby was a slow starter but is now one of the busiest stations on the Exmouth line.

 

[Xavi]

Digby was a slow starter but is now one of the busiest stations on the Exmouth line.

I’m sure I once read Digby was the busiest unmanned station in the south west. May have passed that honour on now.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Aug 2023 ==

reopening stations at Okehampton

Ironically, Okehampton was seen by government as the easiest way to demonstrate they were delivering on reopening railways. What an amazing success it has been though. Standing room only is not uncommon several times a week. When Okehampton Parkway (now going to be called something else) opens, 3-car trains will likely be required, but as this thread demonstrates, probably not available.

 

[uglymonkey]

They only did the sea wall because they had to, and I never said they don't do anything only play "2nd fiddle" to other areas of more political? Concern to them.

 

[Silenos]

The most worrying thing from my point of view is what is the DaFT going to do to try to cope with any increase in passenger numbers. Do they actually have any idea?

Presumably they view this as self-regulating. As short-forming (with the associated discomfort and inability to board) and cancellation becomes increasingly the norm, passengers can be expected to vote with their feet and clog the roads instead.

Personally, I think the train length (number of seats and number of cars/carriages) should be specified in the public timetable. Said timetable must be valid for at least 12 months. If a railway operator fails to provide ANY part of the advertised service (train cancelled, short formed or less seats than planned, a car/carriage out of use, terminated short, started at a different origin, delayed by more than twenty minutes at ANY station that it’s scheduled/timetabled to stop at or where less than ⅔ of the toilets are working) every passenger should be entitled to a full refund or a voucher to the same value. No messing around with delay repay.

Wonderful idea - as a frequent passenger id be all for it, but given the state of our railways it would be equivalent to providing free travel most of the time, so I can’t see it ever being a possibility.

Ultimately, the passenger wants a good experience. Especially if we are trying to attract more people to travel by train rather than by air or by road

But is that a serious aspiration of the powers that be? Their actions don’t really support that interpretation. Useful as a sound bite, but no more.

 

[Krokodil]

Ironically, Okehampton was seen by government as the easiest way to demonstrate they were delivering on reopening railways.

Yes, an easy win given that the infrastructure was already in place (with just a few repairs needed). Reopenings such as Maesteg, Ebbw Vale, Aberdare, the Cardiff City Line and the Vale of Glamorgan were likewise easy wins. No time-consuming and costly rebuilding of abandoned formations, just a few new platforms and the odd passing loop. How long has it been since Portishead was first mooted for reopening?

What an amazing success it has been though. Standing room only is not uncommon several times a week. When Okehampton Parkway (now going to be called something else) opens, 3-car trains will likely be required, but as this thread demonstrates, probably not available.

Just goes to show - build it and they will come.

 

[Sly Old Fox]

The answers are fairly straightforward but won’t be done because they cost too much. It doesn’t require any more IETs, though I would personally like to see a few more 5 cars extended to 9.

But finish electrification to Oxford and Bristol, run 387s/equivalent on Oxford fasts and between Cardiff and Bristol on the south west services, you’ll save a few IET and unit diagrams but will need clever timetabling to ensure cross platform interchange at Bristol for the continuations to Taunton/wherever. And something like Class 68s + Mk Vs on the Cardiff - Portsmouth trains, 5 coaches on every train as the route has needed for the last 20 years or so.

That should buy you more than enough spare IETs to ensure the London stuff is all full length, then take some Welsh DMUs when they become available, until 4/5 car FLIRTs can be ordered for every train that isn’t operated by an IET, 387 or sleeper.

 

[Energy]

But finish electrification to Oxford and Bristol

Agreed

run 387s/equivalent on Oxford fasts

They are timed for 125mph rather than 110mph 387s

and between Cardiff and Bristol on the south west services

A few services at the end and start of the day would be able to be EMU throughout, Portsmouth Harbour services would be possible with a battery unit (and the electrification mentioned above) but the rest go down to Penzance/Plymouth/Taunton/Weston-Super-Mare so wouldn't be possible with EMUs.

Electrification to Bristol would help reduce wear on the IET engines and with a battery unit on Portsmouth Harbour it could finally get the needed rolling stock and would have 100% of services through bath electrified.