ULEZ - Plans (and would you have to pay?)

[DustyBin]

In reality, new IC cars are going to be available for many years to come. Manufacturers will carry on making them if the demand is there.

I suspect you're right.

Many car makers are going to stop making anything but hybrids and EVs by 2025. They're not waiting until the deadline as they've already seen demand growing, and economy of scale means it's better to go all in than still make a handful of ICE vehicles for an ever diminishing market.

I think we'll see the widespread adoption of EVs (for the majority of people they're an eminently sensible choice after all), which will certainly bring an end to new "ordinary" new ICE cars. Meanwhile, "interesting" ICE cars will continue to be available for those willing to pay for them, but it will be a relatively small number.

As I've said previously, I see the current deadline as a not-very-subtle nudge, and I think that once it's "job done" and enough people have changed their habits, it will probably be abolished. I may be wrong!

 

[Dai Corner]

I think we'll see the widespread adoption of EVs (for the majority of people they're an eminently sensible choice after all), which will certainly bring an end to new "ordinary" new ICE cars. Meanwhile, "interesting" ICE cars will continue to be available for those willing to pay for them, but it will be a relatively small number.

As I've said previously, I see the current deadline as a not-very-subtle nudge, and I think that once it's "job done" and enough people have changed their habits, it will probably be abolished. I may be wrong!

In reality, new IC cars are going to be available for many years to come. Manufacturers will carry on making them if the demand is there.

They'll still be made in and for less-developed countries, quite possibly to designs and using tooling acquired from the big manufacturers who've stopped making them. That will ensure a supply of imports and spares to keep older cars going for decades.

 

[deltic]

The deadline is not going to happen.

Hasnt the EU 2035 deadline been approved? The UK 2030 deadline is just an aspiration with no legal standing.

 

[jon0844]

They'll still be made in and for less-developed countries, quite possibly to designs and using tooling acquired from the big manufacturers who've stopped making them. That will ensure a supply of imports and spares to keep older cars going for decades.

You'd have to get parts for many years anyway, but just because they may still make some 1 litre petrol car for sale in some continents doesn't mean they'll sell the cars here.

I'm sure you'll get custom performance cars for a long time, but that's a totally different market. And even there, those with money are just as likely to buy a cutting-edge EV supercar than an ICE one. The ridiculous acceleration and max torque at all times is great for racing.

 

[greyman42]

Hasnt the EU 2035 deadline been approved? The UK 2030 deadline is just an aspiration with no legal standing.

I was referring to the UK 2030 deadline. No government is going to have any appetite for it. It is a vote looser.

 

[DustyBin]

They'll still be made in and for less-developed countries, quite possibly to designs and using tooling acquired from the big manufacturers who've stopped making them. That will ensure a supply of imports and spares to keep older cars going for decades.

Indeed; globally there will be a market well beyond the 2030s.

You'd have to get parts for many years anyway, but just because they may still make some 1 litre petrol car for sale in some continents doesn't mean they'll sell the cars here.

This is true as well.

I'm sure you'll get custom performance cars for a long time, but that's a totally different market. And even there, those with money are just as likely to buy a cutting-edge EV supercar than an ICE one. The ridiculous acceleration and max torque at all times is great for racing.

I don't think it will be purely supercars, but yes, it will be a relatively niche market for those looking for more than just transport.

 

[jon0844]

I'm not going to vote for a party that decides our future is more oil and gas mining, more road building and a reduction of investment in green energy solutions, rail, cycling infrastructure, subsidies for solar etc.

But it will be an election issue for sure.

 

[Dai Corner]

You'd have to get parts for many years anyway, but just because they may still make some 1 litre petrol car for sale in some continents doesn't mean they'll sell the cars here.

Why not? Even if the manufacturers don't, I can see independent distributors doing so based on their price, range, ease of refuelling v charging and whatever else they can think of. Is there an electric equivalent to the hot hatch at a price boy racers can afford yet?

 

[greyman42]

I'm not going to vote for a party that decides our future is more oil and gas mining,

Apart from nuclear, there is not a viable option at the moment.

 

[Dai Corner]

I'm not going to vote for a party that decides our future is more oil and gas mining, more road building and a reduction of investment in green energy solutions, rail, cycling infrastructure, subsidies for solar etc.

But it will be an election issue for sure.

You'll be voting Green then?

We're going to need oil and gas for the foreseeable future. I'd rather we used our own than bought it from countries with dubious human rights records, who manipulate prices or cut supplies for political reasons and spend the money on weapons.

 

[jon0844]

Why not? Even if the manufacturers don't, I can see independent distributors doing so based on their price, range, ease of refuelling v charging and whatever else they can think of. Is there an electric equivalent to the hot hatch at a price boy racers can afford yet?

There are lots of rules on importing vehicles, and associated costs. By the time you bring a handful of cars in, they'll cost more than an EV.

And as for hot hatches, have there been many affordable ones recently even in ICE guise? Look at any car meet and you'll likely see far older cars because as car makers have been scaling back their portfolios in recent years, a lot of the GTIs, STs, RSs and the like have been axed.

The best you're going to get is an old Fiesta ST or similar, or a basic car you'll have to throw vinyls on and a spoiler from Halfords.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Aug 2023 ==

You'll be voting Green then?

We're going to need oil and gas for the foreseeable future. I'd rather we used our own than bought it from countries with dubious human rights records, who manipulate prices or cut supplies for political reasons and spend the money on weapons.

I fully accept we need to use oil and gas for the foreseeable, but I don't support anyone who gives up on a move to reduce (and one day axe) consumption and instead consume more, because money.

I accept we'll likely need fossil fuels for things like planes, so to counter that we want to go green on the railway and roads. And so on.

 

[Dai Corner]

There are lots of rules on importing vehicles, and associated costs. By the time you bring a handful of cars in, they'll cost more than an EV.

And as for hot hatches, have there been many affordable ones recently even in ICE guise? Look at any car meet and you'll likely see far older cars because as car makers have been scaling back their portfolios in recent years, a lot of the GTIs, STs, RSs and the like have been axed.

The best you're going to get is an old Fiesta ST or similar, or a basic car you'll have to throw vinyls on and a spoiler from Halfords.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Aug 2023 ==


I fully accept we need to use oil and gas for the foreseeable, but I don't support anyone who gives up on a move to reduce (and one day axe) consumption and instead consume more, because money.

I accept we'll likely need fossil fuels for things like planes, so to counter that we want to go green on the railway and roads. And so on.

And for heating, road freight, the remaining tens of millions of cars, generating electricity when the renewables and nuclear can't cope and industrial processes.

I think the new battery factory in Somerset and trying to minimise our reliance on imported hydrocarbons are very positive steps.

 

[jon0844]

We have been doing some good things behind the scenes, but now all of a sudden we (apparently*) want to reverse things as the Tories lurch to the right as a way of hoping to win the next election.

While they are happy to take donations from lobbyists (as no doubt Labour will be too), at least there have been other businesses seeking to go green and make money, which they'll struggle to do if they have solar/wind farms refused and we see other barriers put up.

* it is quite possible Rishi is just desperately saying what he wants people to hear and nothing will actually change. Plus it is near certain the Tories will lose, so for five years at least we'll need to see what Labour plans to do.

 

[DustyBin]

There are lots of rules on importing vehicles, and associated costs. By the time you bring a handful of cars in, they'll cost more than an EV.

And as for hot hatches, have there been many affordable ones recently even in ICE guise? Look at any car meet and you'll likely see far older cars because as car makers have been scaling back their portfolios in recent years, a lot of the GTIs, STs, RSs and the like have been axed.

The best you're going to get is an old Fiesta ST or similar, or a basic car you'll have to throw vinyls on and a spoiler from Halfords.

Define affordable.

After some haggling I paid around £28k for a Fiesta ST last September, but they were selling for up to £30k. It seems a ridiculous amount (I only paid £34k for a Focus RS in 2017!) but it's still what I'd call "affordable". Whilst Fiesta production has ended, some of the ST's competitors are still available, for now at least.

 

[jon0844]

As I said, you'd be having to buy a much older hot hatch these days, and soon you'd have no choice because they're not being made at all.

Old classics like the Renault 5 are coming back, sort of, in EV guise (I had an Escort Cosworth, which shows my age!) and you'll start to see more performance models - not least because it's really easy to give an EV 400+ BHP with dual motors, which is exactly what MG has done with the MG4 Xpower. Crazy performance for the money, and no doubt a second or third hand vehicle you'll see used by younger drivers in 5-10 years from now.

No new car is going to be cheap. I was shocked how much an ICE car costs now. In many ways, this is allowing EV makers to keep prices high.

 

[Bald Rick]

The deadline is not going to happen.

Bet you it does.

 

[Sonic1234]

How do they get around?

A factor in young people being less interested in motoring is the move to everything being online - work, study, entertainment, shopping, socialising, dating etc: all increasingly online. Those who have always had tech in their lives (particularly smartphones) see less need to travel at all.

 

[The Ham]

A factor in young people being less interested in motoring is the move to everything being online - work, study, entertainment, shopping, socialising, dating etc: all increasingly online. Those who have always had tech in their lives (particularly smartphones) see less need to travel at all.

How old are you going with young people?

Whilst driving licence ownership isn't overly accurate (as some will hold one but not drive), the most noticeable change is the percentage of over 70's with a driving license (it's roughly doubled between 1993 and 2019). Whilst those under 30 with a license have fallen by about 1/5th over the same timeframe.

Even under 40's have a slightly lower rate of licence ownership over the same timeframe.

Given the eldest Millennials are just a bit over 40 now, and the eldest Generation Z are around 27, it appears that these two generations are likely to not be looking to drive as much as older generations, as they become a bigger and bigger chunk of the working population, we are likely to see car ownership rates fall a little.

Gen Y apaer to broadly follow the Baby Boomers in their licence holding rates. However that's not too say that either are owning cars at the same rates as each other (nor may the younger generations)

 

[E27007]

The deadline is not going to happen.

I too think the deadline will be cancelled or delayed due to public pressure, the cost of electrification is very high, R&D spent on developing IC cars has probably ceased, which means existing designs of IC cars could remain unchanged and in production for many years, Without the burden of R&D costs ( fully amortised after several years) , those cars could be either profitable or using well established processes, easy to manufacture.

 

[DustyBin]

Further to my post upthread (#301), I see the EU has already exempted small volume manufacturers from the ICE ban. (This isn’t a new development, I just hadn’t taken any notice of it until now!).

Whilst “small volume” is currently defined as up to 1000 new registrations per year, I think it’s quite possible that this will be relaxed in time. I could see niche models from large manufacturers (the Ford Mustang is an obvious example) being exempted, although it’s quite possible that such cars will move to hybrid drivetrains “naturally” over the next few years.

 

[Noddy]

Further to my post upthread (#301), I see the EU has already exempted small volume manufacturers from the ICE ban. (This isn’t a new development, I just hadn’t taken any notice of it until now!).

Whilst “small volume” is currently defined as up to 1000 new registrations per year, I think it’s quite possible that this will be relaxed in time. I could see niche models from large manufacturers (the Ford Mustang is an obvious example) being exempted, although it’s quite possible that such cars will move to hybrid drivetrains “naturally” over the next few years.

The Mustang isn’t a niche product in its home territory or Europe though. Given Fords current EV trajectory and product cycle the Mustang is very likely to go fully electric by the end of the decade. They may use a platform that allows them to keep the V8 version along side battery ones a little longer but the other petrol versions will be gone by 2030.

The exception for small manufacturers is for companies such as Pembleton, which really are low volume.

 

[The Ham]

The Mustang isn’t a niche product in its home territory or Europe though. Given Fords current EV trajectory and product cycle the Mustang is very likely to go fully electric by the end of the decade. They may use a platform that allows them to keep the V8 version along side battery ones a little longer but the other petrol versions will be gone by 2030.

The exception for small manufacturers is for companies such as Pembleton, which really are low volume.

To the end of July there were about 600,000 new petrol/diesel (excluding hybrids) registered in the UK, even if there were 10 such companies (and the UK also set the limit at 1,000) and all their product range was sold here that would be less than 2% of existing ICE registrations. If so cars it would be less than 1%.

Whilst in reality this is a loophole, it's tiny market and ai suspect that such cars would probably make EV's look cheap!

 

[DustyBin]

The Mustang isn’t a niche product in its home territory or Europe though. Given Fords current EV trajectory and product cycle the Mustang is very likely to go fully electric by the end of the decade. They may use a platform that allows them to keep the V8 version along side battery ones a little longer but the other petrol versions will be gone by 2030.

The exception for small manufacturers is for companies such as Pembleton, which really are low volume.

Ford sold around 80,500 Mustangs globally in 2020, with circa 7000 of those sold in Europe, so it’s a relatively niche/low volume model.

You may of course be right about it going fully electric after the new S650 generation - it’s certainly not unfeasible - but equally I could see it being the type of car that benefits from an exemption if there’s a relaxing of the regulations.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Aug 2023 ==

To the end of July there were about 600,000 new petrol/diesel (excluding hybrids) registered in the UK, even if there were 10 such companies (and the UK also set the limit at 1,000) and all their product range was sold here that would be less than 2% of existing ICE registrations. If so cars it would be less than 1%.

Whilst in reality this is a loophole, it's tiny market and ai suspect that such cars would probably make EV's look cheap!

Interesting stats (as always!).

Again, rather than 10 companies selling 1000 cars each, I think it’s more likely that we’ll see one company selling 10,000 cars. (It wouldn’t be one company selling 10,000 cars in reality, I’m simply using those numbers to illustrate my point).

 

[The Ham]

Again, rather than 10 companies selling 1000 cars each, I think it’s more likely that we’ll see one company selling 10,000 cars. (It wouldn’t be one company selling 10,000 cars in reality, I’m simply using those numbers to illustrate my point).

From:

2022 (Full Year) Britain: Best-Selling Car Brands in the UK - Car Sales Statistics

In full-year 2022, Volkswagen remained the best-selling car brand in Britain but Ford move ahead of German brands Audi and BMW.

www.best-selling-cars.com

The table below shows that even with a limit of 10,000 registrations it would benefit fairly few car companies (the largest being an EV manufacturer!).

The top-selling car marques in the UK in the full-year 2022 were as follows according to the SMMT:

	MARQUE	2022	2021	% 22/21
	Total	1,614,063	1,647,181	-2.01
1	Volkswagen	131,850	147,826	-10.81
2	Ford	126,826	116,305	9.05
3	Audi	110,144	117,953	-6.62
4	BMW	108,624	116,577	-6.82
5	Toyota	102,181	100,895	1.27
6	Kia	100,191	90,817	10.32
7	Vauxhall	83,691	91,452	-8.49
8	Mercedes-Benz	80,910	97,945	-17.39
9	Hyundai	80,419	69,680	15.41
10	Nissan	76,711	68,494	12.00
11	Tesla	54,622	34,853	56.72
12	Peugeot	52,264	61,106	-14.47
13	MG	51,050	30,600	66.83
14	Skoda	48,848	55,561	-12.08
15	MINI	45,854	45,756	0.21
16	Land Rover	43,180	53,111	-18.70
17	Volvo	36,506	48,260	-24.36
18	Renault	32,285	29,836	8.21
19	Citroen	28,487	30,204	-5.68
20	Dacia	27,221	17,568	54.95
21	Mazda	25,209	25,852	-2.49
22	Honda	24,084	26,928	-10.56
23	SEAT	22,140	43,130	-48.67
24	Fiat	19,698	20,154	-2.26
25	Porsche	18,267	13,702	33.32
26	Suzuki	17,378	20,976	-17.15
27	Cupra	14,383	7,584	89.65
28	Jaguar	12,165	18,868	-35.53
29	Lexus	10,675	13,878	-23.08
30	Polestar	7,345	4,096	79.32
31	DS	3,674	2,362	55.55
32	Jeep	2,525	4,463	-43.42
33	Bentley	1,629	1,348	20.85
34	Alfa Romeo	1,576	1,574	0.13
35	Abarth	1,544	2,335	-33.88
36	Ssangyong	1,536	1,525	0.72
37	Subaru	1,391	2,107	-33.98
38	smart	1,256	1,581	-20.56
39	Genesis	1,000	127	687.40
40	Maserati	720	765	-5.88
41	Alpine	288	202	42.57
42	GM Ora	68	0	0.00
	Source: SMMT

 

[Noddy]

Ford sold around 80,500 Mustangs globally in 2020, with circa 7000 of those sold in Europe, so it’s a relatively niche/low volume model.

You may of course be right about it going fully electric after the new S650 generation - it’s certainly not unfeasible - but equally I could see it being the type of car that benefits from an exemption if there’s a relaxing of the regulations.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Aug 2023 ==

The issue is which I see repeated here (and elsewhere) ad infinitum is that there is an expectation that if we (ie the UK) relax our deadline suddenly car makers will continue to sell us ICEs. The reality is that UK is a very small market that is difficult to sell to as most companies primary markets are RHD and internationally the vast majority of manufacturers of moving to EVs as that is where the market is going.

Specifically in the case of the Mustang it has to be electrified in order to continue to be sold in California (possibly other US states are/will follow California). As an aside I would also argue that apart from noise American muscle cars are made for electrification as it’s very easy to get ridiculous power out of EVs.

 

[DustyBin]

From:

2022 (Full Year) Britain: Best-Selling Car Brands in the UK - Car Sales Statistics

In full-year 2022, Volkswagen remained the best-selling car brand in Britain but Ford move ahead of German brands Audi and BMW.

www.best-selling-cars.com

The table below shows that even with a limit of 10,000 registrations it would benefit fairly few car companies (the largest being an EV manufacturer!).

I meant 10,000 ICE registrations, not total registrations. Apologies if I wasn’t clear!

The issue is which I see repeated here (and elsewhere) ad infinitum is that there is an expectation that if we (ie the UK) relax our deadline suddenly car makers will continue to sell us ICEs. The reality is that UK is a very small market that is difficult to sell to as most companies primary markets are RHD and internationally the vast majority of manufacturers of moving to EVs as that is where the market is going.

Specifically in the case of the Mustang it has to be electrified in order to continue to be sold in California (possibly other US states are/will follow California). As an aside I would also argue that apart from noise American muscle cars are made for electrification as it’s very easy to get ridiculous power out of EVs.

You’re right, the UK market alone isn’t going support ongoing production, but I could see the same thing happening elsewhere. I know I keep repeating myself, but once the overwhelming majority of new cars sold are EVs, an outright ban on new ICE vehicles may not be seen as necessary or desirable.

You’re also right to point out that making a quick EV isn’t difficult. Engine noise and the ability to change gear are the main (subjective) benefits of an ICE from an enthusiast perspective, but some will happily make the transition to performance EVs. Whether that will leave enough demand for even fairly niche ICE cars I wouldn’t like to say, but it’s possible.

 

[Dai Corner]

The issue is which I see repeated here (and elsewhere) ad infinitum is that there is an expectation that if we (ie the UK) relax our deadline suddenly car makers will continue to sell us ICEs. The reality is that UK is a very small market that is difficult to sell to as most companies primary markets are RHD and internationally the vast majority of manufacturers of moving to EVs as that is where the market is going.

India, the world's most populous country, and Japan, the world's third largest economy, drive on the left so I wouldn't say RHD was all that niche.

 

[birchesgreen]

India, the world's most populous country, and Japan, the world's third largest economy, drive on the left so I wouldn't say RHD was all that niche.

Plus Indonesia, which has the 4th largest population in the world. Mind you driving on the left is largely in theory only over there, most drivers seem to just drive on the side they feel like, roundabouts can be absolutely terrifying.

 

[Noddy]

India, the world's most populous country, and Japan, the world's third largest economy, drive on the left so I wouldn't say RHD was all that niche.

Plus Indonesia, which has the 4th largest population in the world. Mind you driving on the left is largely in theory only over there, most drivers seem to just drive on the side they feel like, roundabouts can be absolutely terrifying.

India and Indonesia are completely different markets, not to mention the aspirational middle classes will want to buy European, American, Chinese, home made and other EVs. This will only leave ICE cars room in the cheap end of the market and these cars are unlikely to come anywhere near UK safety requirements, or older legacy models (which may be taking up valuable manufacturing space), and IMO neither will be popular here (unless you are absolutely desperate for an ICE over EV).

Japan is more interesting as the Japanese car companies, most notably Toyota, have invested (wasted) billions over the last two decades on trying to develop commercial hydrogen EVs but it now looks like the companies themselves have realised that it isn’t going to work so are now going full bore on battery EVs (Toyota now plan to sell 3.5 million BEVs by 2030, which is up by about 3.5 million from a couple of years ago!). AIUI Japan planned to ban ICE vehicles from 2035 but while the manufacturers were still concentrating on hydrogen they managed to stop this. Now that is no longer the case I wonder if the ICE ban will be back on the table.

 

[AM9]

India and Indonesia are completely different markets, not to mention the aspirational middle classes will want to buy European, American, Chinese, home made and other EVs. This will only leave ICE cars room in the cheap end of the market and these cars are unlikely to come anywhere near UK safety requirements, or older legacy models (which may be taking up valuable manufacturing space), and IMO neither will be popular here (unless you are absolutely desperate for an ICE over EV).

Countries like the UK wanting to flush out the trickle new IC vehicles when major manufacturers have fully transitioned to EVs will probably use a combination of VED, polluting fuel duties along with increasing IC restrictions on public roads.