Genuine question…
Where are these small volume manufacturers going to get their engines from? They don’t make them themselves…
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ULEZ - Plans (and would you have to pay?)
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Genuine question…
Where are these small volume manufacturers going to get their engines from? They don’t make them themselves…
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R
RailUK Forums
With the Pembleton example I gave earlier they use motorbike engines (in their cars) which aren’t due to be phased out till later (2035 at the earliest?). But I strongly suspect that by 2035 batteries with decent power/weight ratio will be available so it won’t matter and they will be able to transition at that point. It would certainly give their customers a more reliable product than an agricultural motor bike engine.
I'd say the vast majority of people who are so against EVs and don't think of them as 'real' cars, are the people who want to keep hold of their V6/V8s, or own a limited-run, tuned, hot-hatch or performance car.
I can see why a petrol-head like this, perhaps attending car meets or taking their car on a track, may be upset by the lack of noise on an EV - but these people aren't likely to find an ICE car that excites them again in the future either - at least not without spending the sort of money that means you aren't going to be worried about EV money.
We've seen Abarth now making a car with fake engine sounds (not the usual sounds an EV must make at low speed - actual revving and idle sounds) that is a bit of a gimmick, but may well become a thing. And there is always talk of simulating manual gearboxes and other things for retro look and feel, which is also a gimmick but easily possible in software - and possibly even a thing for cars with more than one motor.
I can see why a petrol-head like this, perhaps attending car meets or taking their car on a track, may be upset by the lack of noise on an EV - but these people aren't likely to find an ICE car that excites them again in the future either - at least not without spending the sort of money that means you aren't going to be worried about EV money.
We've seen Abarth now making a car with fake engine sounds (not the usual sounds an EV must make at low speed - actual revving and idle sounds) that is a bit of a gimmick, but may well become a thing. And there is always talk of simulating manual gearboxes and other things for retro look and feel, which is also a gimmick but easily possible in software - and possibly even a thing for cars with more than one motor.
BluePenguin
On Moderation
Why not? I live roughly 1 hour 10 from Greenwich and would glady take your car into London if seeing a concert at the o2
DustyBin
Established Member
I expect some larger manufacturers will continue to produce engines well into the future. There will be a demand for replacement engines, and they’ll probably be selling ICE cars to some markets well beyond 2030.
In addition, new engines (or the components to build one) will be available from aftermarket manufacturers. You can certainly build a brand new Cosworth BD series engine for example, despite it being a 1960s design. Even Ford SOHC “Pinto” blocks and heads have been available brand new (in alloy no less!) in the recent past.
That will likely make it extremely expensive and therefore something for the wealthy, who will of course be also able to afford the fuel bill. I mean, sure, rebuild an old Cosworth engine or a Volvo T5 engine, but they were never remotely fuel efficient.
For everyone else, EVs will be a cheaper choice.
For everyone else, EVs will be a cheaper choice.
Indeed, just because something is possible doesn't mean that is a viable option.
Once ICE vehicles fall below 50% of the fleet filling stations are going to start to get fewer and further apart. Yes many will stay as a few pumps with other reasons to be there (super chargers, supermarket, cafe, etc.) however fuel tends not to do too well if stored for a long time, so turn over would have to be enough to empty the tanks frequently enough. Not least winter diesel is a slightly different mix from summer.
Snow1964
Established Member
Filling stations have been falling for years, it was around 50,000 in 1950, but down to nearer 9000 now. But number of pumps has not gone down that much. In 1950s many had only 2 pumps, nowadays 8 - 12 pumps is the norm.
In the 3 weeks since this thread opened the vote has been 85-90% will have no effect.
Meanwhile we know 1 in 6 new cars in UK is now fully electric (Jan-July is 16.1%), another 6.6% are plug in hybrid, 12.4% are hybrids.
Less than 1 in 25 (3.9% Jan-July) are now diesel, just 43,143 sold whereas petrol over 10 times as popular with 455,727 sales (SMMT data)
DustyBin
Established Member
That’s the point; most people will be happy with an (affordable) EV once they’re widely available. Any ongoing ICE car sales in the UK will almost certainly be of niche models to people who specifically want one. Hopefully they don’t become prohibitively expensive to all but the very wealthy, but even now if you buy a performance car you know it’s going to cost you in fuel, tax, insurance etc.
Again, they won’t be aimed at commuters or the school run brigade for whom an EV makes perfect sense.
If it’s an issue (which it certainly can be) they’ll simply stock less fuel. A lot of the petrol storage issues seem to be with E10, which no self-respecting petrolhead buys anyway.
I doubt that there will be any moves to increase the proportion of vehicles using E5 for general road use. If they want to keep filling up at one of the remaining fuel stations, they will have to make their vehicle work on whatever is acceptable to most IC users.That’s the point; most people will be happy with an (affordable) EV once they’re widely available. Any ongoing ICE car sales in the UK will almost certainly be of niche models to people who specifically want one. Hopefully they don’t become prohibitively expensive to all but the very wealthy, but even now if you buy a performance car you know it’s going to cost you in fuel, tax, insurance etc.
Again, they won’t be aimed at commuters or the school run brigade for whom an EV makes perfect sense.
If it’s an issue (which it certainly can be) they’ll simply stock less fuel. A lot of the petrol storage issues seem to be with E10, which no self-respecting petrolhead buys anyway.
DustyBin
Established Member
E5 is "universal" though, some people just prefer not to pay the higher price (although you can benefit from increased fuel economy). The cars that can't/shouldn't run on E10 are the ones most likely to stick around or continue in production, therefore E5 will (eventually) become the default option.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I would have thought some sort of E100 (i.e. zero dead dinosaurs) is likely to be the long-term outcome for the tiny number of petrol non-EVs and for things like lawnmowers. Presumably additives will be developed to resolve the issues that presently causes, just like they did with leaded fuel.
They've already made E5 dearer when E10 was introduced. Given the (narrow) claims of E10 being greener, there would be grounds for further differentiating (by price) the lesser credentials of E5. That would suit vendors as they would only need to stock one petrol product.
DustyBin
Established Member
Porsche are working on an e-fuel (called eFuel funnily enough!) but as it stands it looks extremely expensive. To be honest, once the majority of cars are EVs it will be a solution looking for a problem in my opinion.
Nobody wants to stock a product people won't buy though (we're looking far ahead onto the future here). At the end of the day, E5 is a "premium" product that most people don't currently need and is priced accordingly; only a very small portion of the price difference is due to environmental considerations. Again, once most people are driving EVs it's a moot point anyway really.
DustyBin
Established Member
I think diesel could be become "endangered" as there are less enthusiast-focused diesel cars to sustain long-term demand (plus of course sales of new diesels have nosedived). You'll still be able to get it I'm sure, but I could see some fuel stations dropping it altogether eventually.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Long term there won't be "fuel stations", you'll probably need to order it for home delivery. But I think diesel itself will take longer to go than petrol, as the HGV and heavy plant/farming machinery industry is going to take a long time to switch. (Yes, that'll be red diesel mostly, but that's the same as normal diesel, just with the dye added, and it could well be that fuel tax is abolished anyway, replaced with road pricing, so it may cease to need to be distinguished).
Most cars will probably be EVs within 20-30 years, by contrast, and all bar classics within 50 or so, and ULEZs will be long gone because they won't be needed - nobody will care if one person drives a classic 2023 Vauxhall Astra (!) through central London, as they'll be the only one doing it that day, probably.
Diesel will be sold at service stations and the like for some time because of lorries (where currently full electric still have a number of issues, mostly relating to weight and the reduced payload), but quite possibly not your local Asda or Tesco.
The question is whether smaller commercial vehicles will adopt EVs quickly, and given the likely higher reliability and lower floor access, as well as lower running costs, I am sure they will.
DustyBin
Established Member
I think @jon0844 has made a good point in this regard. Motorway services will continue to sell diesel for large commercials, but local filling stations may find there's little demand for it, especially if they're inaccessible to HGVs etc.
You could be right about fuel tax and road pricing.
I'm inclined to agree, unless there's a complete change of policy which seems unlikely (although I still think we may see some relaxation).
Whilst there were far fewer cars in the 1950's there are likely to be other factors at play.
For example, cars are much more fuel efficient, meaning that they need to refuel less often.
The cost of labour is another factor, petrol stations need their staff with a steady stream of people coming in to justify their costs. Without that then petrol stations are likely to become less viable.
There's currently 6 petrol stations within 4 miles of me and about 25,000 people in that same sort of area, once the number of cars reduces from (say) 10,000 to 5,000 which need to use those locations to refuel it's likely that one of those locations will close and one of the others would have changed what it does (for example reduced the number of pumps to enlarge the shop).
It's likely that it'll take some time for all locations to close our no longer offer fuel, however once EV's /plugin hybrids make up 90% it's likely that there may only be one location left. As those with plugin hybrids would be able charge their car enough to get to a filling station further away.
Especially given that the value of the land for other uses (flats is a classic one) is always going to be a tempting prospect - especially those locations with larger sites (for example paired with car sales - which are also finding new competition from online sales, like Cinch).
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Most standalone fuel station sites would be suitable for a small supermarket with a Costa and a Subway and maybe 20 parking spaces with chargers, I'd expect to see some of those over the coming years.
Indeed, it would depend on what other competition there is locally. Of the two closest petrol stations ones a Waitrose and the other is a Spar, however within 250m of either there's a Budgins and a One Stop, further afield (but still within a 10 minute walk less than 750m) are a reasonable sized Sainsbury's and a Tesco.
The Waitrose would likely survive, I'm not so sure about the Spar (as the other convince shops are slightly larger and nearer to housing/offices). It's also the largest site, with a (hand) car wash, car sales and MOT centre - which could make it fairly attractive for residential development.
I like that statement. Oh the irony, - Hybrid IC driver might have range anxiety.
Snow1964
Established Member
In London, already been big cuts, I lived in north Kingston upon Thames for 22 years until 3 years ago. One by one all the new car dealerships in Kingston closed and apartments were built on each side (you cannot physically buy a new car in Kingston anymore, possibly now in whole borough).
It is same with petrol stations, whilst I lived in the area, I can think of 7 nearby petrol stations that closed and sites redeveloped, within couple of miles of where I lived was down to 3 petrol stations.
Dai Corner
Established Member
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Car and fuel retailers seem to have followed the same course as others, moving from town centres to retail parks on the edges of urban areas.
Unless it turns out that damage from tyre particulates is as bad as that from exhausts
Or maybe the damage from the EV tyre particulates is as bad as that from IC vehicles' exhaust AND tyres together.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
It isn't.
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
That's more likely to be dealt with by regulating what tyres are fitted to cars rather than by way of ULEZs. The EU was already moving that way some years ago that manufacturer's spec for tyres would include particulates released, and failure to fit emission equivalents would be an MoT fail.
Not likely because although usually heavier that the same sized IC vehicle, they have tyres of different compounds to handle the much higher available torque, and give a similar life. EV haters seem to make a lot of noise about the extra weight, and its impact of performance, the roads (i.e. negligible), but strangely forget that much of the energy used to accelerate can be recovered on braking.
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