Confirmed : HS2 West Midlands-Manchester line to be scrapped and replaced with other projects.

[Bald Rick]

Can we not instead just hope they are delivered, and delivered as rail projects, on time, on budget?

But what is the budget?

See my post above about how the French view environmental issues when doing big infra. Bluntly they don’t, so they don’t spend/waste (delete as appropriate to your view) colossal sums of money on environmental consultants and environment impact assessments.

Err, yes they do. Extensively.

Starmer has already stated Labour wont be reinstating HS2 phase 2 and will stick with the new Tory proposals according to FT

He’s said he can’t guarantee he’ll reverse the decision.

I can absolutely guarantee he won’t reverse the decision to swap money from HS2 to a ramshackle fleet of smaller projects. But he may well reinstate some parts of HS2 (or at least something like it) and not do some of the smaller projects.
Will it be perfect? No.
Will it be better than the current position? Yes.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

This is the story of a Staffordshire (Whitmore) farmer who sold land to HS2 only last week.
He doesn't expect to get it back.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...ught-edward-cavenagh-mainwaring-land-for-what

But Edward Cavenagh-Mainwaring’s land was bought through compulsory purchase by HS2 Ltd five days before Rishi Sunak’s announcement to scrap phase 2 of the high-speed line. He has lost a quarter of his Staffordshire dairy farm and fears he will never be able to buy it back.

Some of the detail of how HS2 went about its job in the area are revealing of a juggernaut out of financial control.

 

[squizzler]

The governments constant revisions of the HSR programme in spite of transport merits reminds me of the famous quote disparaging the “reality based community” during Bush’s invasion of Iraq:

The aide said that guys like me were 'in what we call the reality-based community,' which he defined as people who 'believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.' [...] 'That's not the way the world really works anymore,' he continued. 'We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors...and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do'.

Anyway we saw what happened to Bush’s imperial project in Iraq.

In the field of rail transport this argues against wasting time on judicious study of the purported new “realities” called Network North.

 

[brad465]

This is the story of a Staffordshire (Whitmore) farmer who sold land to HS2 only last week.
He doesn't expect to get it back.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...ught-edward-cavenagh-mainwaring-land-for-what



Some of the detail of how HS2 went about its job in the area are revealing of a juggernaut out of financial control.

A similar report in the i talks about a £1.5m property being bought only 24 hours before the announcement (which was also after Sunak reportedly recorded his message cancelling the leg to Manchester):

https://twitter.com/theipaper/status/1710180608381505933

Government bought £1.5m house on HS2 line less than 24 hours before Rishi Sunak cancelled it

 

[Moonshot]

Complete lack of vision for the industry by this government. But I don't expect the next government to be any better.

 

[rdlover777]

what's annoyed me is that HS2 has been boiled down into what is basically just a branch of the WCML...

 

[Parjon]

what's annoyed me is that HS2 has been boiled down into what is basically just a branch of the WCML...

At one time the WCML was quite well regarded!!

In the field of rail transport this argues against wasting time on judicious study of the purported new “realities” called Network North.

It would be good if infrastructure did follow a consistent, sensible path. However, the very creation of HS2, and every moment of its existence, has flowed from what you have described.

It, and the shifting sand arguments it has been based on, isn't and has never been of the "reality based community".

Speaking from the Liverpool side of the M62, I can tell you that dishonesty and gaslighting have been the mainstays of the "engagement" we have been subjected to.

And yet everything, *everything*, we have maintained has been proven true, and everything that had been suggested as fact has been exposed as falsehood.

All our predictions have also been spot on. Some might like to use their power and act as if they can "create their own reality", but eventually the truth of the matter will out.

The demise of HS2 is nothing to lament.

 

[swt_passenger]

Given that Sunak has already repeatedly peed off the Speaker it will be interesting to see if he acts....


Rishi Sunak has not won an election for anything but his own Parliamentary seat....

Gordon Brown agrees.

 

[gg1]

Gordon Brown agrees.

The reason Gordon Brown didn't have a leadership election was because he was the only candidate to receive the requisite 12.5% of nominations from the parliamentary Labour party (actually receiving 88%).

It's true that both Brown and Sunak never won a members vote for leader but Brown did have the support of the overwhelming majority of his parliamentary party, something which Sunak has never been able to claim.

 

[Parjon]

It's true that both Brown and Sunak never won a members vote for leader but Brown did have the support of the overwhelming majority of his parliamentary party, something which Sunak has never been able to claim.

If half the Tory party doesn't like him, wouldn't that infer that at least there is a chance the majority of the public would!

 

[gg1]

If half the Tory party doesn't like him, wouldn't that infer that at least there is a chance the majority of the public would!

We'll all find out sometime in the next 15 months.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The demise of HS2 is nothing to lament.

Well, it's trashed any idea of a UK high speed rail network comparable with that of neighbouring countries.
It's also thrown away a vast number of man-years of expert technical, planning, environmental and legal resource, all for nothing.
The rail industry's reputation (HS2 Ltd and NR, and their retinue of consulants and contractors) has been ruined, with the government in vindictive mood and diverting rail funds to roads and other means.

I was trying to think how this compares with previous industry "cancel" moves.
Beeching is the obvious one, which changed the rail map, and the industry, for ever.
Channel tunnel cancellation in 1975 was a reverse, but it came back after a decade and is now taken for granted.
I'm reminded that Concorde could not be cancelled at the time, as we had insisted on a "no-cancellation" clause to prevent the French from doing so.
Privatisation was another bombshell, but did not immediately change the network, though it did change the industry over time.
But I think ditching HS2 beyond Birmingham feels about as significant as the Beeching report did in 1963.
I think the golden years since rail funding was increased markedly after 1996, have just gone down the plughole.

 

[yorksrob]

The rail minister said this morning that their network north plans are just 'ideas' and not guaranteed

To quote Cilla, "Surprise surprise".

Of course, his August 2019 enquiry into HS2s viability wasn’t ever likely to reach any conclusion other than the one it eventually did.

I must confess, I lose track of the various reports and inquiries.

 

[Ben427]

Spot on - and where it is a consideration, it will be in the areas affected - so the areas where it's already being built "why are we still having to put up with the demolition / destruction", in the areas which have been clouded by uncertainty whether HS2 will run through their area, one of two reactions, either relief of "it's all over now, we can return to normal" or anger "it's wasted time / ripped up communities / forced people to move for nothing".

Disagree - it's not HS2 itself that is the issue for voters, it's the principle of it and the feeling of being left behind and ignored by Westminster, and especially Conservative governments. To me it strikes me that the Conservatives don't think they'll keep much of the red wall and they are focusing on minimising losses elsewhere

 

[Midlands5678]

Half of the "proposals" already exist.

Yet more gaslighting from this lying government.

 

[dosxuk]

One of the problems is motivated by short term thinking, politicians have taken the easy way out.

Telling people the bits they want to hear, and not necessarily always the bits they need to hear.

Well said Rishi, I couldn't have put it better myself.

 

[northwichcat]

I am not aware of any proposals, justification or need for any additional local services on the electrified ex-LNW suburban network to the south of Manchester. The only station on this network within Greater Manchester that does not already have 2 tph is Bramhall.

It was actually a franchise committment for Arriva Rail North to provide 2tph to Northwich and Macclesfield and 4tph to Hazel Grove. When Network Rail declared that wasn't possible with existing infrastructure it was suggested that those additional services might need to wait until HS2 is built.

Additional local services via Wilmslow were also pretty much guaranteed as part of HS2, as Wilmslow would have lost all Pendolino services, so they had been promised alternative local services, in additional to HS2 services from Manchester Airport.

You forgot about Hale, Navigation Road and Middlewood only have 1tph. While Navigation Road has Metrolink, that doesn't connect it with Stockport. Also the Airport-Wilmslow spur only gets 1tph.

 

[A0]

Disagree - it's not HS2 itself that is the issue for voters, it's the principle of it and the feeling of being left behind and ignored by Westminster, and especially Conservative governments. To me it strikes me that the Conservatives don't think they'll keep much of the red wall and they are focusing on minimising losses elsewhere

I think if you ask your average voter in Manchester or Liverpool their view of HS2 it won't even be something they're bothered about and would much rather the "local" trains or "local" buses were sorted out if you were talking about public transport. If you were talking about transport more generally I'd expect potholes to be the main concern and if you're talking generally, then it'll be the old favourites of 'schools 'n hospitals, time it takes to see a doctor and maybe cost of living. To pretend HS2 was somehow "giving" most people something in those places is for the birds - yes it allows a bit of grandstanding for the likes of Burnham, Rotherham or Braburn to do a bit of "the poor old North are victims again" - but how many people would actually *use* HS2 more than once a year ? You can answer that by looking at how many people currently use the fast services from Manchester, Liverpool or Leeds to London more than once a year - it's not that many.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

You forgot about Hale, Navigation Road and Middlewood only have 1tph. While Navigation Road has Metrolink, that doesn't connect it with Stockport. Also the Airport-Wilmslow spur only gets 1tph.

Both Hale and Navigation Road railway stations can be considered as Altrincham area stations and both those areas have high car ownership and local bus routes).

 

[Carlisle]

Channel tunnel cancellation in 1975 was a reverse, but it came back after a decade and is now taken for granted.

Not quite, Regional Eurostar & Nightstar trains & infrastructure were all cancelled after significant money was spent on the project, but for whatever reason politicians got none of the blame .

 

[Peterthegreat]

Not quite, Regional Eurostar & Nightstar trains & infrastructure were all cancelled after significant money was spent on it.

Regional Eurostar and "Nightstar" were not part of the 1975 version.

 

[daodao]

Additional local services via Wilmslow were also pretty much guaranteed as part of HS2, as Wilmslow would have lost all Pendolino services, so they had been promised alternative local services, in additional to HS2 services from Manchester Airport.

You forgot about Hale, Navigation Road and Middlewood only have 1tph. While Navigation Road has Metrolink, that doesn't connect it with Stockport. Also the Airport-Wilmslow spur only gets 1tph.

I referred to services on the electrified ex-LNW network that are within Greater Manchester, and noted that Bramhall is the only station that does not currently have 2 tph. Hale, Navigation Road and Middlewood are not on the 25 kV electrified network, and the Airport-Wilmslow spur is outwith Greater Manchester, as is the rural village of Styal, the only intermediate station on this line. If there are capacity issues on the electrified ex-LNW network in the southern part of Greater Manchester, the simplest solution is to lengthen the trains in peak periods.

The previous franchise commitments for Arriva Rail North were pre-Covid and, like the previous justification for phase 2 of HS2, are now obsolete with the reduced train usage post Covid.

 

[Irascible]

Gordon Brown agrees.

When was the last time putting a chancellor in charge of a sitting government won the next election?

A list of ideas now is it? looks like literally noone in govt was consulted. Wonder if there's anyone left bringing money into the country who has any confidence left.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Not quite, Regional Eurostar & Nightstar trains & infrastructure were all cancelled after significant money was spent on the project, but for whatever reason politicians got none of the blame .

I meant the channel tunnel as an infrastructure project.
The 1975 service plan was for classic trains with locos that changed at Calais, nothing like Eurostar.

Regional Eurostar did get the NLL and WLL connection upgraded to AC operation, before the plug was pulled on the service.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Miriam Cates MP (no, me neither) has solved the problem of capacity for us, and it’s dead simple. Just make every train loads longer, and if they’re too long for the platforms tell people getting off to move down to the middle

 

[JamesT]

When was the last time putting a chancellor in charge of a sitting government won the next election?

I'm not sure that a sitting Chancellor taking over from an incumbent Prime Minister is that frequent an occurrence, but John Major? Took over in 1990, won in 1992. Before that, Harold Macmillan. Took over from Eden in 1957, won the 1959 election, was replaced by Alec Douglas-Home in 1963.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

Miriam Cates MP (no, me neither) has solved the problem of capacity for us, and it’s dead simple. Just make every train loads longer, and if they’re too long for the platforms tell people getting off to move down to the middle

I wonder why no one has thought of that..

If the wish list of projects were going to get built I'd actually say it's quite good but as we all know the reason to cut is to save money ( no sure why the government has announced it btw as with a GE soon it'll be another governments problem), so the money is not going to be redirected elsewhere as there'd be no point in cutting it in the first place from a political sense

 

[northwichcat]

I referred to services on the electrified ex-LNW network that are within Greater Manchester, and noted that Bramhall is the only station that does not currently have 2 tph. Hale, Navigation Road and Middlewood are not on the 25 kV electrified network, and the Airport-Wilmslow spur is outwith Greater Manchester, as is the rural village of Styal, the only intermediate station on this line. If there are capacity issues on the electrified ex-LNW network in the southern part of Greater Manchester, the simplest solution is to lengthen the trains in peak periods.

The previous franchise commitments for Arriva Rail North were pre-Covid and, like the previous justification for phase 2 of HS2, are now obsolete with the reduced train usage post Covid.

I don't know what relevance trains running on the overheads has. If anything it's harder to path trains that need to get to Manchester that can't run under the wires the whole way. Hence, why it's Chester trains starting and terminating at Stockport and electric trains doing stops at Heaton Chapel and Levenshulme.

COVID has actually increased off-peak loadings in the area and decreased peak loadings. That actually strengthens the case for a consistent service level from 7am to 7pm, even if it weakens the case for extra carriages to be added at peak times.

 

[Carlisle]

And it would enable much more rail freight, which isn't subsidized, and is an essential element of net-zero.

How could that be? we’re told on here even todays tiny network of Parcels & Supermarket trains can’t be expanded as there’s insufficient profit to incentivise the FOCs to do so.

Essentially Government would need to pass laws that made Road haulage significantly less attractive ie more expensive or subsidise rail.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I referred to services on the electrified ex-LNW network that are within Greater Manchester, and noted that Bramhall is the only station that does not currently have 2 tph. Hale, Navigation Road and Middlewood are not on the 25 kV electrified network, and the Airport-Wilmslow spur is outwith Greater Manchester, as is the rural village of Styal, the only intermediate station on this line. If there are capacity issues on the electrified ex-LNW network in the southern part of Greater Manchester, the simplest solution is to lengthen the trains in peak periods.

Are you saying that stations not on the electrified network don't deserve to have the extra services that they might have been able to get with HS2 freeing up some capacity on the line through Stockport?