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Derailment near Carlisle - 19/10/2022 - 1715 Clitheroe Castle Cement Gb to Carlisle N.Y. (6C00)

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RC42

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I'm aware of that quote, but it still leaves some questions unanswered: what does "failed mode" mean? What is the process for returning from "failed mode" to normal operation?

I addressed this in my original post: "Stopping trains to inspect them is one piece of the solution, but it seems that better failure reporting from axle counter equipment, and a culture of fully investigating failures (whether the failure results from rolling stock or trackside equipment) also seem urgently necessary."

Inspecting trains is a (very!) good step, but I don't see how this would help with, say, detecting a failure in the axle counter itself that could lead to a train entering the block undetected.

Safety-critical equipment should not be allowed to fail 3 times a year for a decade. (And to the extent that these "failures" are not actually an issue with the equipment, the equipment needs to provide better information to the signaler to make this clear.)
I’m still curious as to why you think no one is interested in failures? You imply the attitude on the railway is “don’t worry about it” but don’t give us any evidence that there is such an attitude present. As the report states the number of failures in that location, it shows that there was a history of people recognising faults, reporting them and it being investigated, just because they couldn’t find a cause of the fault doesn’t imply a lack of care or interest just that they could not find a reason.
The problem with reports like this people without full knowledge of everything involved read them, add two and two, make six , then jump to conclusions. There are many technical aspects to this and similar reports which I don’t fully understand, I just hope those that do (i.e. those that create the reports and those that need to act on them) make sure such incidents are avoided in future, I don’t make assumptions on parts I don’t have any knowledge of.
 
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John Webb

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These passages worry me:

"It fails sometimes, don't worry too much about it" is a hugely dangerous attitude to have about safety-critical equipment. Stopping trains to inspect them is one piece of the solution, but it seems that better failure reporting from axle counter equipment, and a culture of fully investigating failures (whether the failure results from rolling stock or trackside equipment) also seem urgently necessary.
Bear in mind that long track circuits (TCs), although indicating as a single one in the overseeing signal box, often have to be split up into three or four sections due to ground conditions, weather the track is subject to and other factors in order to work reliably, I wonder if in fact axle counters have a lower failure rate that the TCs they replaced?
Para 144 of the Report says, in part:
....This standard allows wheels to have a flange profile that is up to 6.5 mm deeper than nominal. Because of the large wheel flat, the leading wheelset on the ninth wagon had a flange profile that was about 20 mm deeper than nominal (figure 21). It is likely that the axle counters on the entry and exit to each of the three axle counter sections detected this non-compliant wheel flange and went into a fault condition....
so it seems that it was the faulty wheelset was the cause of the axle counter failures, and it was because of this factor that the report has gone on to stress the need to 'stop and examine' on both TC and and axle counter failures. It seems to me that all concerned certainly are worried about it!
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Pretty unusual mechanism of failure and given the billions of miles run by wagons over decades feels like pretty low risk and i do hope these recommendations don't lead to additional restrictions on when freight trains can run. Also a bit pointed towards signallers given 90% of the railway is run by signallers unable to see the railway anymore.

Clearly needs to bring back guards van;)
 

edwin_m

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Pretty unusual mechanism of failure and given the billions of miles run by wagons over decades feels like pretty low risk and i do hope these recommendations don't lead to additional restrictions on when freight trains can run.
The report mentions four investigations since 2017 of serious wheelflats, including the major derailment and fire at Llangennech, and two that caused track damage probably severe enough to threaten the safety of following trains. So at least three events that could have been catastrophic under slightly different circumstances. I don't think we can write this off as a minor issue, though I agree that restricting the operation of freight trains in low adhesion conditions probably isn't the answer. Perhaps more attention should be given to ensuring that hot axle box detectors can also pick up overheating between the wheel and the rail, particularly if the wheel is no longer rotating.
 

30907

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Perhaps more attention should be given to ensuring that hot axle box detectors can also pick up overheating between the wheel and the rail, particularly if the wheel is no longer rotating.
I'm not enough of a physicist to know (understatement of the year), but by how much would the rail have heated at a particular point?
 

Nicholas Lewis

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The report mentions four investigations since 2017 of serious wheelflats, including the major derailment and fire at Llangennech, and two that caused track damage probably severe enough to threaten the safety of following trains. So at least three events that could have been catastrophic under slightly different circumstances. I don't think we can write this off as a minor issue, though I agree that restricting the operation of freight trains in low adhesion conditions probably isn't the answer. Perhaps more attention should be given to ensuring that hot axle box detectors can also pick up overheating between the wheel and the rail, particularly if the wheel is no longer rotating.
The report does but this event is the weakest in terms of being able to ascribe cause to outcome. Our railway is extremely safe and all incidents on this scale should be investigated to determine if there is something new to be learnt but if there isn't that shouldn't be seen as a failure.
 

edwin_m

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I'm not enough of a physicist to know (understatement of the year), but by how much would the rail have heated at a particular point?
I'd guess not very much, because the hot wheel passes over very quickly. Imagine moving a blowtorch over a steel bar at 50mph - each part would barely heat up at all. It's the wheel that gets hot.
The report does but this event is the weakest in terms of being able to ascribe cause to outcome. Our railway is extremely safe and all incidents on this scale should be investigated to determine if there is something new to be learnt but if there isn't that shouldn't be seen as a failure.
That's actually what makes it more of a concern for me. If a cause can be established then something can be done about it. But in this case, and at least one of the previous ones cited, there was no definitive cause and the best explanation was an unexceptional brake application in only slightly unusual circumstances. Clearly this doesn't happen very often, but it's not clear what combination of factors caused it to happen on this occasion.
 

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I'm aware of that quote, but it still leaves some questions unanswered: what does "failed mode" mean? What is the process for returning from "failed mode" to normal operation?
An item of signalling equipment is in ‘failed mode’ when it has been determined that it is no longer working correctly.

The process of returning to normal operation depends on a number of factors, some of which are determined by the equipment involved.

With some types of axle counter equipment, the controlling signaller (following a set procedure) can attempt to reset a failed axle counter section or sections. With older types of axle counter equipment, only signalling (S&T) technicians can reset the axle counter section or sections.

Regardless, of who or how an axle counter section is reset, the signaller must follow a set procedure to ensure that the safety of trains is not compromised. Note however, that this is primarily about keeping trains separated from one another and preventing points from moving under trains, or other signalling related safety.

If an axle counter will not reset, then signalling (S&T) technicians will be called to investigate. They may investigate even if the axle counter did reset.

Axle counters are designed to detect the movement of a steel wheel (of a train) passing over the rail they are attached to. They are not designed to detect if the wheel is rotating. They are not designed to detect if the wheel is abnormal. Indeed, some other steel objects can cause an axle counter section to go from section ‘free’ to section ‘occupied’. When the signaller notices an axle counter section that is showing occupied but there is no train in the section, said axle counter section will be treated as failed.

I addressed this in my original post: "Stopping trains to inspect them is one piece of the solution, but it seems that better failure reporting from axle counter equipment, and a culture of fully investigating failures (whether the failure results from rolling stock or trackside equipment) also seem urgently necessary."

Inspecting trains is a (very!) good step, but I don't see how this would help with, say, detecting a failure in the axle counter itself that could lead to a train entering the block undetected.

If a the passage of a train results in multiple signalling equipment failures, then it’s logical to suspect that the train itself may be either the cause or contributing to the cause. Hence it may indeed be necessary to stop the train and ask the crew to inspect the whole length of the train looking for problems. Or it may be more appropriate to put it in a loop or sidings until appropriate train fitters/engineers can inspect it.

It’s beyond the current design requirements of axle counter equipment to report diagnostic information to a signaller. Even if this information was made available (where practical), the interpretation of the data requires engineering training. As axle counters are not designed to determine if a wheel is rotating, it’s simply not practical to try to use this equipment to reliability detect problems with wheels.

Axle counters, along with all of the rest of the safety-critical signalling equipment, are designed as far as is practical, to fail safe. That is, when they go wrong, the signalling equipment self protects by putting or holding signals to/at red/danger. Also called a ‘safe side’ failure.

Hence the possibility of an axle counter failing to detect a train has already been considered in great detail. Axle counter technology has been in use on the railways in the U.K. since the 1980s. Despite the PR from Network Rail, it’s not a new technology.

Safety-critical equipment should not be allowed to fail 3 times a year for a decade. (And to the extent that these "failures" are not actually an issue with the equipment, the equipment needs to provide better information to the signaler to make this clear.)

Safety critical signalling equipment in more than 99.999% of cases, fails ‘safe side’. As I described above.

Bear in mind that long track circuits (TCs), although indicating as a single one in the overseeing signal box, often have to be split up into three or four sections due to ground conditions, weather the track is subject to and other factors in order to work reliably, I wonder if in fact axle counters have a lower failure rate that the TCs they replaced?

Track circuits and axle counters work completely differently. Hence comparing the two directly is actually more difficult than you may imagine. As it depends on what and how you classify the various failures.
They have different failure mechanisms, different benefits and different weaknesses.

A track circuit doesn’t care how many trackworker steel toe caped boots or metal shovels pass over it (well, as long as no one sticks a shovel into a cable). But axle counters don’t like steel metal objects near the count heads.

A track circuit will go clear after a freight train pulls away even if one of the wagons rolled back over a IRJ when the locomotive had stopped. Some axle counters are less tolerant of this and may need to be reset.

Track circuits don’t like wet, dirty “ballast’ (or rather, what is supposed to be ballast) or flood water. Hence you get more track circuit failures when there is heavy rain in some places.

But track circuits in general, are in fact more than 99.999% reliable. It’s only certain track circuits that cause the vast majority of problems. And a lot of these problems could be solved if the railway sorted out the underlying problems and issues.

Most axle counters should also be more than 99.999% reliable. But there are a lot of new installations where the overall reliability has not been as good as hoped.

Perhaps more attention should be given to ensuring that hot axle box detectors can also pick up overheating between the wheel and the rail, particularly if the wheel is no longer rotating.
Most Hot Axle Box Detectors (HABD) in the mainland U.K. network are designed to monitor the temperature of the axle boxes, not the temperature of the wheels.

HABDs used in some other countries do have the facility to monitor the temperature of the wheels.
 
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Gaelan

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An item of signalling equipment is in ‘failed mode’ when it has been determined that it is no longer working correctly.

The process of returning to normal operation depends on a number of factors, some of which are determined by the equipment involved.

With some types of axle counter equipment, the controlling signaller (following a set procedure) can attempt to reset a failed axle counter section or sections. With older types of axle counter equipment, only signalling (S&T) technicians can reset the axle counter section or sections.

Regardless, of who or how an axle counter section is reset, the signaller must follow a set procedure to ensure that the safety of trains is not compromised. Note however, that this is primarily about keeping trains separated from one another and preventing points from moving under trains, or other signalling related safety.

If an axle counter will not reset, then signalling (S&T) technicians will be called to investigate. They may investigate even if the axle counter did reset.

Axle counters are designed to detect the movement of a steel wheel (of a train) passing over the rail they are attached to. They are not designed to detect if the wheel is rotating. They are not designed to detect if the wheel is abnormal. Indeed, some other steel objects can cause an axle counter section to go from section ‘free’ to section ‘occupied’. When the signaller notices an axle counter section that is showing occupied but there is no train in the section, said axle counter section will be treated as failed.



If a the passage of a train results in multiple signalling equipment failures, then it’s logical to suspect that the train itself may be either the cause or contributing to the cause. Hence it may indeed be necessary to stop the train and ask the crew to inspect the whole length of the train looking for problems. Or it may be more appropriate to put it in a loop or sidings until appropriate train fitters/engineers can inspect it.

It’s beyond the current design requirements of axle counter equipment to report diagnostic information to a signaller. Even if this information was made available (where practical), the interpretation of the data requires engineering training. As axle counters are not designed to determine if a wheel is rotating, it’s simply not practical to try to use this equipment to reliability detect problems with wheels.

Axle counters, along with all of the rest of the safety-critical signalling equipment, are designed as far as is practical, to fail safe. That is, when they go wrong, the signalling equipment self protects by putting or holding signals to/at red/danger. Also called a ‘safe side’ failure.

Hence the possibility of an axle counter failing to detect a train has already been considered in great detail. Axle counter technology has been in use on the railways in the U.K. since the 1980s. Despite the PR from Network Rail, it’s not a new technology.



Safety critical signalling equipment in more than 99.999% of cases, fails ‘safe side’. As I described above.
Thanks for all those details! That's a very good point - much better for the system to fail safe spuriously than to pretend everything is fine when it isn't.

I can see the argument for not providing full fault information, but I do think it should at least distinguish between "occupied" and "fault" (to the extent these are indeed distinct states recognized by the axle counter). Showing the two the same way to the signaler is just needlessly confusing and delays any possible reaction to a fault.
 

MadMac

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Hence the possibility of an axle counter failing to detect a train has already been considered in great detail. Axle counter technology has been in use on the railways in the U.K. since the 1980s. Despite the PR from Network Rail, it’s not a new technology.
First ones were, I think, in Glasgow Queen Street in the 60s!
 

edwin_m

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When there are successive axle counter sections, there is a single head at the boundary between them, that counts the axles out of one section and counts them in to the next. So if there is a fault on that counter it will typically lead to the system treating both sections as occupied, so could appear to be a successive failure of two sections (first one remains occupied when train moves into second one, then second one remains occupied when train continues out of it). You need to see three successive sections occupied to be confident there is more than one fault present, which would be a strong indication of a problem caused by a passing train.

Anyone any idea why there was one very long section followed by two very short ones?
Most Hot Axle Box Detectors (HABD) in the mainland U.K. network are designed to monitor the temperature of the axle boxes, not the temperature of the wheels.

HABDs used in some other countries do have the facility to monitor the temperature of the wheels.
That was my point - perhaps we should be specifying ours to do that too. From what I recall of the earlier report that considered this, an existing HABD will physically detect a hot but rotating wheel because the hot outer rim is passing the sensor at axle box level, but the software isn't necessary set up to report the resulting double hot spot. To detect a hot but non-rotating wheel it needs a second sensor down near rail level where all the heat is.
 

D6130

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Anyone any idea why there was one very long section followed by two very short ones?
Could it be anything to do with the fact that there's a long block section from Culgaith SB to Low House Crossing, followed by a much shorter one from there to Howe & Co's Sidings; which in turn is the fringe box to Carlisle PSB, but with no intermediate signals between there and Peterill Bridge Jn?
 

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When there are successive axle counter sections, there is a single head at the boundary between them, that counts the axles out of one section and counts them in to the next. So if there is a fault on that counter it will typically lead to the system treating both sections as occupied, so could appear to be a successive failure of two sections (first one remains occupied when train moves into second one, then second one remains occupied when train continues out of it). You need to see three successive sections occupied to be confident there is more than one fault present, which would be a strong indication of a problem caused by a passing train.
Yes. An experienced signaller would/should be aware that a failure of any of the equipment that forms a detection point (count head) is likely to cause both axle sections to fail.


Anyone any idea why there was one very long section followed by two very short ones?
Could be due to various reasons.

From what I recall of the earlier report that considered this, an existing HABD will physically detect a hot but rotating wheel because the hot outer rim is passing the sensor at axle box level, but the software isn't necessary set up to report the resulting double hot spot. To detect a hot but non-rotating wheel it needs a second sensor down near rail level where all the heat is.
The sensors used by the types of HABD used on Network Rail infrastructure are either attached to the outside of the rail (non running side) or in a special sleeper.

The sensors are designed to look up at an angle so that they see the axle box or bearing.

There’s a document here that gives a lot of detail on the FUES system.

FUES HABD

Hot Box and Hot Wheel Detector “FUES-EPOS”

In the railroad sector, the bearings, brakes and the wheels of the rolling-stock units are vital elements for the safety of the Railroad operation. The non detection of heating of these elements can result in the break of the axle boxes, in a de- railment, cause fire and other damages to the rolling stock or tracks, but all cause the interruption of the service of trains.

Beside the cost for such delays, also costs for delayed rec- ognition of required maintenance will increase the costs for repair. Overall is a not detected Hot box or Hot Wheel critical for safe Railway Operation. For these motives it is fundamen- tal to install systems of detection for warm boxes and brakes in the railroad infrastructure, which allow to act directly on an detected event.

The system of Detection of heated Boxes FUES-EPOS ( Easy Pull out System ) of Progress Rail, allows to monitor and detect the heating of the outer and inner bearings, the wheels and the brakes. The system FUES-EPOS offers a big reliability and a long lifetime, high availability, reduction of false alarms, simple installation and maintenance and opera- tiveefficacy (lowLCCcosts).

The detectors ( EPOS modules ) are installed in hollow metallic sleeper. They are using the infrared technology to detect the warming's at a defined target area. The System provides the absolute, relative and distinguishing tempera- tures of the elements in real-time.

With more than 1000 systems installed in the demanding operations of passengers' railway transport in Europe, the FUES operates in a wide speed status, from 3 km/h up to 500 km/h ( 1,86 mph up to 310 mph ) and it is completely compatible with the different types of trains, cars, bearings and existing brakes used in these railways.

The FUES can adapt itself to comply with the specific configuration of the rolling-stock of any operator and railroad infrastructure.

Specification

Detected defects
• Heated Bearing
• Heated Wheel and Tight Brakes Scanner
• Infrared detector multifocus HgCdTe
• 4 elements and internal focus for self-control
• Up to 120 samples for every Bearing, 240 for every wheel.
• 5 types of alarm thresholds: warm, hot, differential ( warm and hot ), relative ( min and max ), dedi- cated for car type.

Detection of temperatures
• Up to 180oC for Hot Box
• Up to 600oC for Hot Wheel
• Accuracy: +/- 2 degrees K, with 12 bit resolution

Calibration and Maintenance
• Auto-calibration
• Self diagnostic and reporting on status, including remote diagnostics
• Automatic correction of contamination Installation
• Sleeper: +/- 24VDC per Sleeper
• TCP/IP or modem communication
• Power supply AC: 220-240, VAC 50-60 Hz
• Cable length of 100 meters between sleeper and Location Electronic is supported.

Train speed supported
• from 3 km/h up to 500 km/h (1,86 mph up to 310 mph).

Options
• Automatic voice Broadcasting ( radio )
• Vehicle Identification
• Snow Covers, electrical Winter Heaters
• TAS ( Target Are Split ) module
• 2 FBOA detectors
• Software based Sun Filter and Classificators
• Dispatcher System ( RAD)

However, Network Rail does not buy systems with all the options.

Here’s a picture showing the IR (infrared) targets (no beams are emitted from the HABD equipment, the picture is trying to show only the infrared radiation being emitted that reaches the sensors):
IMG_6989.jpeg
The sensor that is looking at one of the wheels is an option that was not provided on the systems used by Network Rail when I was working on these some years ago.

Older designs (by a different manufacturer) used on Network Infrastructure are not provided with any sensors that can detect heat from the wheel directly (some may pick up heat due to it being conducted through the wheel to the bearing).
 

Railsigns

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Anyone any idea why there was one very long section followed by two very short ones?
There's a signal at both boundaries between adjacent axle counter sections. CBB(X) runs from the Down intermediate block distant signal C4R to the corresponding home signal C4. CBC(X) is the overlap for C4.
 

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Here’s a photo showing a Servo HABD system trackside sensors (scanners):
IMG_6991.jpeg
(photo shows one sensor attached to each rail on the outside of the rail).

The position and angle that the sensor views is aligned optically to look at the axle box/bearing on the train, hence it does not even see the wheel.

If you look closely at the nearest sensor, you can see the port on top of it that it views the axle box/bearing through.
 

GC class B1

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I'd guess not very much, because the hot wheel passes over very quickly. Imagine moving a blowtorch over a steel bar at 50mph - each part would barely heat up at all. It's the wheel that gets hot.

That's actually what makes it more of a concern for me. If a cause can be established then something can be done about it. But in this case, and at least one of the previous ones cited, there was no definitive cause and the best explanation was an unexceptional brake application in only slightly unusual circumstances. Clearly this doesn't happen very often, but it's not clear what combination of factors caused it to happen on this occasion.
I think there were four separate instances where an unexplained severe brake drag has occurred in similar low adhesion circumstances. These all involved loaded wagons with the same brake arrangement. In my opinion the explanation why the wheel didn’t commence rotating after the brake was released is not credible. I think there may be more incidents of a similar nature as the cause of these severe brake drags doesn’t seem to have been identified.
 

edwin_m

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Yes. An experienced signaller would/should be aware that a failure of any of the equipment that forms a detection point (count head) is likely to cause both axle sections to fail.
Thinking about it a bit more, failure of a joint between adjacent track circuits could also cause both to show occupied.
 

GC class B1

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So did all of those have the same bogies, brake rigging and brake valves etc.?
I am not sure whether the bogies and pneumatic systems are identical for all wagons involved. The mechanical brake arrangement is the same on all the wagons involved. The principles of operation of the pneumatic systems will be the same on most if not all similar wagons and the pneumatic system is therefore very unlikely to be a factor in this incident. The pneumatic system was tested and dismissed as a factor in this incident. I don’t know whether the bogies are the same for all incident wagons but the obvious common factor is the brake mechanical equipment of which there are many different types often on wagons in the same train.
 

ac6000cw

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I am not sure whether the bogies and pneumatic systems are identical for all wagons involved. The mechanical brake arrangement is the same on all the wagons involved. The principles of operation of the pneumatic systems will be the same on most if not all similar wagons and the pneumatic system is therefore very unlikely to be a factor in this incident. The pneumatic system was tested and dismissed as a factor in this incident. I don’t know whether the bogies are the same for all incident wagons but the obvious common factor is the brake mechanical equipment of which there are many different types often on wagons in the same train.
Ah, OK, so you mean they all have the 'BFCB' mechanical linkage system between brake cylinders and brake blocks? (which is probably standard on TF25 bogies, based on the wagon types stated in the the RAIB reports)
 

edwin_m

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How do HABD detectors work with inside bearing wheelsets,
I was an observer on a test run of one of the first Low Track Force Bogie wagons in 1988 or 1989. HABDs wouldn't work with the inside bearings, so this one (at least) had fusible plugs fitted near each bearing, which would melt and vent the brake pipe above a certain temperature. In fact one did so spuriously during the run, so the system had to be isolated to continue (which wasn't dangerous as it was just the one wagon and a coach full of engineers keeping an eye on it).
 

GC class B1

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Ah, OK, so you mean they all have the 'BFCB' mechanical linkage system between brake cylinders and brake blocks? (which is probably standard on TF25 bogies, based on the wagon types stated in the the RAIB reports)
Yes and no. They all have the BFCB arrangement. TF25 bogies can have different brake rigging.
 

3RDGEN

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I think there were four separate instances where an unexplained severe brake drag has occurred in similar low adhesion circumstances. These all involved loaded wagons with the same brake arrangement. In my opinion the explanation why the wheel didn’t commence rotating after the brake was released is not credible. I think there may be more incidents of a similar nature as the cause of these severe brake drags doesn’t seem to have been identified.
I would agree something isn't right with that explanation and reading the report it appears the RAIB aren't convinced either. All the talk of low adhesion yet it's the ninth vehicle in the formation so a loco and eight wagons have conditioned the railhead to some extent but the ninth axle has slid and didn't recommenced rotating on brake release? If there was an intermittent brake fault, that couldn't be recreated, causing the wheelset to lock it should affect both wheelsets so it's also strange there's no apparent issue on the other wheelset of that bogie.
 

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I would agree something isn't right with that explanation and reading the report it appears the RAIB aren't convinced either. All the talk of low adhesion yet it's the ninth vehicle in the formation so a loco and eight wagons have conditioned the railhead to some extent but the ninth axle has slid and didn't recommenced rotating on brake release? If there was an intermittent brake fault, that couldn't be recreated, causing the wheelset to lock it should affect both wheelsets so it's also strange there's no apparent issue on the other wheelset of that bogie.
I agree. The BFCB brake assembly is designed to apply the same force to both wheelsets. RAIB have never explained why in the first incident they concluded that a displaced brake block caused the brake drag on one wheelset only. The brake blocks react against each wheel and it is not possible for a force to apply on one wheel only with this arrangement.
 

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There are a couple of recent videos available on YouTube, describing trials with 'digitalised' bogie cement wagons by Knorr Bremse, VTG and Tarmac. These should be able to detect locked/sliding wheels.

See



and
 

edwin_m

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I would agree something isn't right with that explanation and reading the report it appears the RAIB aren't convinced either. All the talk of low adhesion yet it's the ninth vehicle in the formation so a loco and eight wagons have conditioned the railhead to some extent but the ninth axle has slid and didn't recommenced rotating on brake release? If there was an intermittent brake fault, that couldn't be recreated, causing the wheelset to lock it should affect both wheelsets so it's also strange there's no apparent issue on the other wheelset of that bogie.
The absence of any damage to the other wheelset is strong evidence that there was no brake fault causing the brake to lock. I agree RAIB's suggested sequence of events relies on a certain amount of supposition, but they seem to rule out all other possible causes.
 

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Surely if one wheel on a fixed axle were to stop rotating the opposite wheel would also. Or am I missing something?
 

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I agree RAIB's suggested sequence of events relies on a certain amount of supposition, but they seem to rule out all other possible causes.
Reading the report I was frequently reminded of the famous Sherlock Holmes quote: "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."

However it rarely turns out as neatly as that in practice. You may be left with more than one possibility, or you may have overlooked some possibilities, or you may have wrongly eliminated something and be apparently left with nothing.

Surely if one wheel on a fixed axle were to stop rotating the opposite wheel would also. Or am I missing something?
edwin_m was talking about the other wheelset on the wagon, i.e. the other axle, not the other wheel on the same axle.
 
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