Do you think that the UK switching to electric vehicles is realistic?

[Ediswan]

It seems some parts of the transport industry have not got the memo. A friend reports the automotive department of a local technical college (16+) recently stating "We don't teach EVs here, the future is hydrogen". Fortunately, they found another college with a more realistic approach.

 

[Noddy]

It seems some parts of the transport industry have not got the memo. A friend reports the automotive department of a local technical college (16+) recently stating "We don't teach EVs here, the future is hydrogen". Fortunately, they found another college with a more realistic approach.

Was the college sponsored by Toyota or in Burnaston?!

 

[joebassman]

I was speaking to someone a few weeks ago and they said that they were going to purchase an electric car but then cancelled their order as the delay was too long.

They said they are glad they cancelled after finding out that the pollution created building an electric car is the equivalent of running a petrol fueled car for 10 years. Is this true?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Presumably the same pollution also exists from a new petrol car, but with the "traditional" emissions too?

 

[Energy]

They said they are glad they cancelled after finding out that the pollution created building an electric car is the equivalent of running a petrol fueled car for 10 years. Is this true?

No, I don't have a 10-year figure but here is a life cycle analysis of an ICE and a BEV car from Bloomberg.

Other analysis is out there and all the credible ones I've seen agree that a BEV is much better on the whole lifecycle.

While BEVs do release more carbon while being made the high figures often said are sourced from years ago (often old Top Gear episodes...) and ignore innovations since them, like the removal of cobalt.

 

[Bald Rick]

Reported today that 50% of London black cabs are electric.

Does that mean pure BEV, or do some taxis have those small 'generator' type engines too?

Edited for autocorrect.

I thought that was already the case, but good to see confirmation. The stat is actually that 50% of London Black Cabs are the LEVC TX electric; there are other thpes of EV black cab in use (notably Nissans).

All the LEVC TX electric cabs have a generator to extend range. Pure electric range is only 70-80 miles, although that is about the typical distance travelled for a black cab working central London in a day. It‘s rare to see one with it working though, more likely at the end of a day.

Those living in pre-1960s estates/terraces, where the use of privates cars by the average worker was not a considered likely at the time of construction, are also not buying 3-year old EVs.

This is just nonsense. There are literally hundreds of EVs parked outside houses in “pre 1960s estates / terraces” within a couple of miles of where I am sat now.

 

[birchesgreen]

I was speaking to someone a few weeks ago and they said that they were going to purchase an electric car but then cancelled their order as the delay was too long.

They said they are glad they cancelled after finding out that the pollution created building an electric car is the equivalent of running a petrol fueled car for 10 years. Is this true?

What do they think is used to create an ICE car? Swan farts?

 

[PTR 444]

I thought that was already the case, but good to see confirmation. The stat is actually that 50% of London Black Cabs are the LEVC TX electric; there are other thpes of EV black cab in use (notably Nissans).

All the LEVC TX electric cabs have a generator to extend range. Pure electric range is only 70-80 miles, although that is about the typical distance travelled for a black cab working central London in a day. It‘s rare to see one with it working though, more likely at the end of a day.





This is just nonsense. There are literally hundreds of EVs parked outside houses in “pre 1960s estates / terraces” within a couple of miles of where I am sat now.

This might pose an issue for on-street charging. Imagine the abundance of trip hazards along a pavement littered with charging cables strewn right the way from porch to car. The disability rights campaigners would have a fit!

At least it isn’t such an issue for anywhere with a private driveway.

 

[jon0844]

I suspect the reality is that in 10 years time the EV technology will have moved on. I had a Leaf company car it was awful then but I certainly wouldnt buy one secondhand now.

The Leaf is a very cheap second hand car now, which still offers people 50+ miles a day. Despite its flaws, many people could easily get by with that range and at that price, you're now getting close to what some new e-bikes cost (£2-3k).

While cycling is a good way to get around and far to many people make excuses not to cycle, a 'proper' car might be worth the extra spend and suit a commuter just fine, or be ideal as a second car.

They'll probably be very reliable compared an ICE car of the same age.

 

[joebassman]

The Leaf is a very cheap second hand car now, which still offers people 50+ miles a day. Despite its flaws, many people could easily get by with that range and at that price, you're now getting close to what some new e-bikes cost (£2-3k).

While cycling is a good way to get around and far to many people make excuses not to cycle, a 'proper' car might be worth the extra spend and suit a commuter just fine, or be ideal as a second car.

They'll probably be very reliable compared an ICE car of the same age.

What about the cost of battery replacement?

I recently spoke to an instructor on a driving experience and he told me they had just spent £18k on battery replacement on a 10 year old Tesla.

Someone I was speaking to said their friend had bought an around 2 year old Range Rover hybrid only to be told soon after that their car would need new batteries. They were told that the cost of replacement batteries would be more than the car is worth.

 

[Bald Rick]

This might pose an issue for on-street charging. Imagine the abundance of trip hazards along a pavement littered with charging cables strewn right the way from porch to car. The disability rights campaigners would have a fit!

At least it isn’t such an issue for anywhere with a private driveway.

The ones I see charging on streets near me use rubber floor cable covers.

What about the cost of battery replacement?

What about it? It’s a pretty rare event, not dissimilar to needing a new engine or gearbox.

 

[trebor79]

It's an incredibly badly designed vehicle if it runs requires 1kW to run charging circuitry handling a handful of amps.
Do you have a study that supports this position? I've not heard of it my self and I literally work in this field.

Ok, may have misremembered the exact losses, but point remains that charging at very low power is inefficient. There's nothing wrong with modulating chargers, if the system is controlling millions of them it can achieve the required control to support grid stability.

Doing it by stuttering chargers has grid implications if done at a very large load though. It will also be necessary for the DNO to control chargers on an individual LV feeder basis, which Octopus is unlikely to be able to do,

Well they are controlling the charge of my car and everyone else signed up to their Intelligent tariff right now, on an individual basis.
I have no idea how granular their data is, but it's definitely down to some level of detail as people in different areas get different slots, and the charge doesn't necessarily start at the start of end at the end of a slot.

furthermore turning chargers on and off is unlikely to be able to provide the required granularity on a low voltage feeder circuit. To achieve the necessary rapid decarbonisation the distribution system is going to have to be run far harder and on far smaller margins than it does today.

If you're turning millions of chargers on an off then it will indeed have the desired effect.

At worst 15% more energy is required to charge the car at the low power than the very high power, but the very high power chargers cost large sums of money and have major other costs associated with them in grid terms.

I think you are talking about DC chargers here. Home AC chargers are.kittke.more than a glorified switch with some protection devices built in. A 1kW version would be pennies cheaper than a 7kW version. Indeed 11kW or 22kW 3 phase versions are not much more expensive than the more usual 7kW 3 phase.

What about the cost of battery replacement?

What about it?

I recently spoke to an instructor on a driving experience and he told me they had just spent £18k on battery replacement on a 10 year old Tesla.

How many miles had that Tesla done? It's akin to buying a high mileage old banger and then realising the engine is worn out and need rebuilding.

Someone I was speaking to said their friend had bought an around 2 year old Range Rover hybrid only to be told soon after that their car would need new batteries. They were told that the cost of replacement batteries would be more than the car is worth.

Yeah hybrid batteries don't last well. They are small so get cycled more frequently than a large battery. They are charge and discharge at higher C rates because of the small pack size and this also wears them out.
Hybrids are rubbish and shouldn't be considered by anyone.

 

[The Ham]

The ones I see charging on streets near me use rubber floor cable covers.



What about it? It’s a pretty rare event, not dissimilar to needing a new engine or gearbox.

Indeed, there's data which shows that Tesla degrade at about 1% per year, it's worth reading through the report on it here:

A Study on Real-Life Tesla Battery Deterioration

Tesla cars are known for their long range, providing hundreds of miles on a single full charge—but how does the battery hold up after years of use? To find out, we've analysed real-life data submitted by hundreds of car owners to determine how Tesla batteries deteriorate over time.

www.nimblefins.co.uk

 

[HSTEd]

If you're turning millions of chargers on an off then it will indeed have the desired effect.

Millions of charges can be turned on and off to modulate the grid demand, but that's not what I pointing to.
We have to also avoid exceeding the rating of any single low voltage feeder that will be a three phase circuit with a load capability measured in the low hundreds of kilowatts.

Octopus has no idea what is going on in that circuit because all they have is a spreadsheet handed to them by the balancing process, it is certainly not granular enough and not fast enough responding. Charging will have to be controlled directly by the DNO, probably by automatic equipment in the substation.
It will have to be controlled on the basis of individual streets, or indeed fractions of streets, because we are not in a position to replace the entire low voltage system, so it will have to be run with considerably less margin than it is today.

I think you are talking about DC chargers here. Home AC chargers are.kittke.more than a glorified switch with some protection devices built in. A 1kW version would be pennies cheaper than a 7kW version. Indeed 11kW or 22kW 3 phase versions are not much more expensive than the more usual 7kW 3 phase.

The problem is not the EVSE, the problem is all the money I have to spend to supply juice to the EVSE.
In order to properly manage the system we need every car we physically can get plugged in to be plugged in.

That means something like 40+ million chargers, probably pushing 50 million. And since the power glut can hit at any time of day I have little way of knowing a long time in advance where cars will be in every spike.

A car park will need hundreds of circuits, as will lamp-post charging in streets without off road parking.
Very rapidly the large capacity chargers will require extraordinarily expensive solutions to be installed.

300 7kW chargers is pretty much going to need a dedicated substation on site if they are to operate more usefully than 300 1kW chargers.
300 22kW chargers are going to need a 33kV feeder dedicated to them!

As previously noted, not much battery capacity will typically be available in each vehicle at any given moment, so a small number of high power chargers will rapidly charge the attached batteries and then we will lose our ability to channel the power glut into packs, because all the packs that have capacity left will not be plugged in due to a lack of chargers.


All that matters is getting more chargers into more locations and then inculcating a habit of plugging in whenever you park in the user base. The individual rating of the chargers will be inconsequential, and 3kW is likely ample.
Selecting a handful of the high power chargers to fast charge at a time could work, but that could make it more difficult to convince people to keep making the effort to plug in if a lot of the time they receive no power for doing so.

 

[jon0844]

What about the cost of battery replacement?

Why would you replace it? It may just lose another 5 or 10 miles per charge in a few years. Eventually it may get too low for your needs, but the car will likely be 15-20 years old by then. And if the car is only doing such low mileage, you aren't subjecting it to anywhere near the same number of charge cycles and wear as a car doing 150,000 miles.

I do around 5,000 miles per year. Imagine how long a battery is going to last doing that. Remember, I said a Leaf is good for a certain type of user - not everyone.

Plus there are many places that sell reconditioned batteries for the Leaf, so you wouldn't buy a new pack anyway. When I needed a new engine for my Fiesta XR2 I went to a breakers yard, not Ford Motor Company!

And as it happens, I found that Nissan will actually sell you a refurbished battery themselves with a warranty - for around £2k. That might be excluding fitting, but it's still going to be a far easier job than an engine replacement. Many owners actually upgrade the battery for a larger capacity one from newer models, so they can in fact increase their range.

You can probably sell the old battery too, to get some money back.

Good luck flogging your old, dirty, broken engine to anyone.

 

[The Ham]

Why would you replace it? It may just lose another 5 or 10 miles per charge in a few years. Eventually it may get too low for your needs, but the car will likely be 15-20 years old by then. And if the car is only doing such low mileage, you aren't subjecting it to anywhere near the same number of charge cycles and wear as a car doing 150,000 miles.

I do around 5,000 miles per year. Imagine how long a battery is going to last doing that. Remember, I said a Leaf is good for a certain type of user - not everyone.

Plus there are many places that sell reconditioned batteries for the Leaf, so you wouldn't buy a new pack anyway. When I needed a new engine for my Fiesta XR2 I went to a breakers yard, not Ford Motor Company!

And as it happens, I found that Nissan will actually sell you a refurbished battery themselves with a warranty - for around £2k. That might be excluding fitting, but it's still going to be a far easier job than an engine replacement. Many owners actually upgrade the battery for a larger capacity one from newer models, so they can in fact increase their range.

You can probably sell the old battery too, to get some money back.

Good luck flogging your old, dirty, broken engine to anyone.

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a company develop a vehicle which could have a choice of batteries fitted to it and you get a second hand one (or new if you do wished) fitted and you effectively pick the capacity you need.

Not now, there's not enough ends of life cars.

For example a 20 year old battery with 60% range which originally did 200 miles would still be good for 120, for those with family 80 miles away and a family holiday 170 miles away ( so one charge) would be fairly happy with such a car.

 

[Harpers Tate]

I saw a report yesterday about the world's highest mileage car. Since 2014 it has covered 1.2 million miles. It is a Tesla S and has had three new battery packs. That works out at at least 300,000 miles per battery on average. And this is with a 2014 level of development. Somehow I suspect that a huge number of drivers never get close to that figure before other elements of the car - it's body, for example - become life expired. It has also had several new motors - reportedly because there was an inherent fault with the very early design, so that's perhaps not representative more generally.

 

[The Ham]

I saw a report yesterday about the world's highest mileage car. Since 2014 it has covered 1.2 million miles. It is a Tesla S and has had three new battery packs. That works out at at least 300,000 miles per battery on average. And this is with a 2014 level of development. Somehow I suspect that a huge number of drivers never get close to that figure before other elements of the car - it's body, for example - become life expired. It has also had several new motors - reportedly because there was an inherent fault with the very early design, so that's perhaps not representative more generally.

Even then I suspect that the battery packs being taken out were probably above 60% so still good for many users (just not for someone who does an average of 300 miles a day assuming 365 day usage every year).

 

[E27007]

For example a 20 year old battery with 60% range which originally did 200 miles would still be good for 120, for those with family 80 miles away and a family holiday 170 miles away ( so one charge) would be fairly happy with such a car.

I have owned a hybrid for 20 years, I have worked on the batteries too, your example of battery capacity degradation and reduced range is too simplistic, the batteries do not degrade so gracefully, they develop issues such as an inability to deliver high output, when the car has to accelerate or ascend a gradient, the degraded battery cannot meet the power demand, similarly energy recovery, when regenerative braking or descending a gradient, the degraded battery cannot accept high charge. There is more than simply less range, the drivability of the vehicle must be considered.
On a "London" note , a good number of recently-constructed properties in the last few years are given planning permission on the basis of "zero cars in the household", no garage or off-street parking for the property, where there is an introduction of CPZ (Controlled Parking Zone an annual permit for a fee), the household will be forbidden the grant of a mandatory on-street CPZ parking permit, (the authorities check the address of the applicant and the planning constraints of the address), so IC or BEV, both are denied to those households. London authorities are certainly "anti-motorist / anti-car" , so watch out Manchester / Birmingham / Leeds, you too could be in the firing line.

 

[The Ham]

I have owned a hybrid for 20 years, I have worked on the batteries too, your example of battery capacity degradation and reduced range is too simplistic, the batteries do not degrade so gracefully, they develop issues such as an inability to deliver high output, when the car has to accelerate or ascend a gradient, the degraded battery cannot meet the power demand, similarly energy recovery, when regenerative braking or descending a gradient, the degraded battery cannot accept high charge. There is more than simply less range, the drivability of the vehicle must be considered.
On a "London" note , a good number of recently-constructed properties in the last few years are given planning permission on the basis of "zero cars in the household", no garage or off-street parking for the property, where there is CPZ in place (Controlled Parking Zone), the household will be forbidden the grant of a mandatory on-street parking permit, (the authorities check the address of the applicant and the planning constraints of the address), so IC or BEV, both are denied to those households. London authorities are certainly "anti-motorist / anti-car" , so watch out Manchester / Birmingham / Leeds, you too could be in the firing line.

I would imagine the impact on a hybrid battery is far greater as the batteries are tiny (even a PHEV would typically have a 30 mile range battery to start with.

In London there is FAR less need to own a car (even compared to other cities). Also this planning applications are generally applied in areas where the PTAL level is higher (where 6 is high and 1 is low).

A regional station with 4tph and 6bph is likely to have a PTAL of 1, maybe if that's a few different routes a 2. Bexley station is a 3.

Most such planning applications would be in areas with a PTAL of 5 or 6.

 

[stuu]

No parking permits has been a thing for a long time, it happens all over the country. My previous flat included that, it was built in 2006, in Somerset

 

[Harpers Tate]

London authorities are certainly "anti-motorist / anti-car" , so watch out Manchester / Birmingham / Leeds, you too could be in the firing line.

...which (IMO) is fine as long as......

When I stayed at a suburban hotel in London recently, which was some distance from the nearest tube station, at the bus stop right outside, one could catch a bus every 12 minutes even on a Sunday evening very late which went to that Tube station. And pay for the entire trip with a single payment method that capped daily use to a meaningful maximum. etc.

And it's not at all fine if that bus were hourly and stopped at teatime. Or worse yet, there wasn't one at all.

 

[trebor79]

I have owned a hybrid for 20 years, I have worked on the batteries too, your example of battery capacity degradation and reduced range is too simplistic, the batteries do not degrade so gracefully, they develop issues such as an inability to deliver high output, when the car has to accelerate or ascend a gradient, the degraded battery cannot meet the power demand, similarly energy recovery, when regenerative braking or descending a gradient, the degraded battery cannot accept high charge. There is more than simply less range, the drivability of the vehicle must be considered.

That's because hybrids have tiny batteries of just a few kWh capacity. That means the batteries get absolutely hammered - they might complete several charge cycles in one journey and because the pack is smaller, the power input/output per cell is higher than with a larger pack.
A hybrid battery has a *much* harder life than a BEV battery. Hybrids are an astonishingly poor concept with all sorts of issues, I'm surprised anyone is still buying them.

Millions of charges can be turned on and off to modulate the grid demand, but that's not what I pointing to.
We have to also avoid exceeding the rating of any single low voltage feeder that will be a three phase circuit with a load capability measured in the low hundreds of kilowatts.

Octopus has no idea what is going on in that circuit because all they have is a spreadsheet handed to them by the balancing process, it is certainly not granular enough and not fast enough responding. Charging will have to be controlled directly by the DNO, probably by automatic equipment in the substation.
It will have to be controlled on the basis of individual streets, or indeed fractions of streets, because we are not in a position to replace the entire low voltage system, so it will have to be run with considerably less margin than it is today.

Well if that became a problem (and I'm not convinced it would due to diversity and the fact it's hardly likely everyone on a street is going to wan to charge their car at the same time, and even if they did, it may not be an issue on every LV circuit), it could still be controlled by the energy supplier. The DNO knows which circuit each MPAN is on and could supply that data to Octopus along with the current limits for said circuits. Just becomes another input to the algorithm, so as well as me getting different charge slots from someone in Birmingham, I may also now get different charge slots from my neighbour.
I can't see anyone suggesting spending billions of pounds retrofitting equipment to every LV distribution circuit and every home EVSE to allow switching by the DNO. Indeed, how would that even work in practice with something like Intelligent Octopus. I tell Octopus I want the car charged by 6am, it maps the charge sessions but then the DNO steps in and turns it off??
No, the answer is to provide that granularity of network data to the energy supplier and integrate it into their smart charging product. They may already be doing it for all I know.

The problem is not the EVSE, the problem is all the money I have to spend to supply juice to the EVSE.
In order to properly manage the system we need every car we physically can get plugged in to be plugged in.

Well, we've seen there's ways to manage the grid load at both local, regional and national level. Why does every car need to be plugged in whenever possible though?

That means something like 40+ million chargers, probably pushing 50 million. And since the power glut can hit at any time of day I have little way of knowing a long time in advance where cars will be in every spike.

Why are cars the only way of dealing with a glut? We can:

• Heat hot water for use later
• Heat buffer tanks for space heating later
• Store energy in pumped storage, liquid air storage or grid connected batteries
• Curtail excess production (and the Octopus model is partially about avoiding curtailment)
• Export excess power to France, Norway, Netherlands etc

A car park will need hundreds of circuits, as will lamp-post charging in streets without off road parking.
Very rapidly the large capacity chargers will require extraordinarily expensive solutions to be installed.

You're assuming a world where everyone will want their cars on charge whenever it's parked, and the batteries don't stop charging when they are full. Neither of those statements are reality

300 7kW chargers is pretty much going to need a dedicated substation on site if they are to operate more usefully than 300 1kW chargers.
300 22kW chargers are going to need a 33kV feeder dedicated to them!

As previously noted, not much battery capacity will typically be available in each vehicle at any given moment, so a small number of high power chargers will rapidly charge the attached batteries and then we will lose our ability to channel the power glut into packs, because all the packs that have capacity left will not be plugged in due to a lack of chargers.

If you think about this logically, if I have say 100MWh of battery capacity plugged in, I use the same amount of energy if I charge that at 10MW for 10 hours or 100MW for 1 hour (ignoring losses). Depending upon the height and width of the spike, it might be better to charge at the higher speed or the lower speed. If it's better at the lower speed for a given situation, I can do that by turning on 10% of the chargers, then as the attached battery fills, turning on another in turn to keep an even 10MW pull.

There are already locations which have a lot of chargers and they simply limit the power when the grid connection capacity is reached, and automatically ramp up again as capacity becomes available.

All that matters is getting more chargers into more locations and then inculcating a habit of plugging in whenever you park in the user base. The individual rating of the chargers will be inconsequential, and 3kW is likely ample.
Selecting a handful of the high power chargers to fast charge at a time could work, but that could make it more difficult to convince people to keep making the effort to plug in if a lot of the time they receive no power for doing so.

You're assuming car batteries are the only way of managing grid demand, and they simply aren't.
FWIW, I wouldn't even bother going to the faff of getting the cable out for a 3kW charge (especially one that I might or might not get). I'm never going to plug my car in every time I park because I simply don't need to, and society doesn't need me to either.

We've had an electricity grid for decades, I don't really understand why suddenly we have to have millions of cars plugged in charging very inefficiently at low power.

 

[Bletchleyite]

For example a 20 year old battery with 60% range which originally did 200 miles would still be good for 120, for those with family 80 miles away and a family holiday 170 miles away ( so one charge) would be fairly happy with such a car.

Most families have a main car and a cheap little runaround. The latter* usually just goes around town, to the shops etc. Assuming the household has a charger, a 50 mile range is more than enough for the latter, in most places it'll only need plugging in every other day.

Thus things like old Leafs are fine for the latter and won't need a battery replacement to last as long as the beat up 10 year old Corsa did before.

* Only downside is that it won't be useful for the teenager to borrow for a trip with their mates, but maybe that's a good thing because they'll go by train/bus/coach instead and build a habit of that, and maybe they'll be less likely, therefore, to have a serious accident as sadly does happen on such trips.

 

[paul1609]

That's because hybrids have tiny batteries of just a few kWh capacity. That means the batteries get absolutely hammered - they might complete several charge cycles in one journey and because the pack is smaller, the power input/output per cell is higher than with a larger pack.
A hybrid battery has a *much* harder life than a BEV battery. Hybrids are an astonishingly poor concept with all sorts of issues, I'm surprised anyone is still buying them.

The hybrid Ive just ordered comes with a 10 year warranty which includes the battery. The Prius battery has a history of lasting around 150 to 200k miles. Id suggest thats beyond what the average motorist would be concerned about. The Prius is that common there are independant manufacturers offering replacement batteries which retail at about £2500 plus £1500 fitting.
In drivability, economy safety etc a Toyota Hybrid currently knocks the socks off the sub £40k EV in my test drives.
The EVangelist cheap Ev darling the MG4 in my opinion is dangerous to drive in the UK because of the lane departure system if that was fitted to an ICE car there would be calls for a safety recall. Ive not experienced it but Ive heard that the front collision assist also has its moments effectively doing an uncommanded emergency stop from speed on the motorway.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The EVangelist cheap Ev darling the MG4 in my opinion is dangerous to drive in the UK because of the lane departure system if that was fitted to an ICE car there would be calls for a safety recall. Ive not experienced it but Ive heard that the front collision assist also has its moments effectively doing an uncommanded emergency stop from speed on the motorway.

Lots of cars have lane departure systems. What's specific about this one?

 

[SargeNpton]

This is just nonsense. There are literally hundreds of EVs parked outside houses in “pre 1960s estates / terraces” within a couple of miles of where I am sat now.

Come to my area of Northampton. No pure EVs in any of the streets around where I live, except occasionally at the two on-street chargers that have recently been installed. No noticeable hybrids either, other than a couple of aging Prius that are used as mini-cabs.

 

[Bald Rick]

Come to my area of Northampton. No pure EVs in any of the streets around where I live, except occasionally at the two on-street chargers that have recently been installed. No noticeable hybrids either, other than a couple of aging Prius that are used as mini-cabs.

Ok. So if you had said in your original quote:

Those living in pre-1960s estates/terraces in my area of Northampton, where the use of privates cars by the average worker was not a considered likely at the time of construction, are also not buying 3-year old EVs.

…then that would have made more sense. But what happens in one part of Northampton isn‘t necessarily representative of the whole country.

On a broader point i susoect there is a bit of ‘trending’ in terms of EV buying, ie someone buys an EV, their freinds / neighbours see it or get a lift in it, and that causes them to buy an EV. It’s anecdotal, but I’ve seen that happen near me. Conversely, if no one in a street / freindship group buys one, then the ‘group’ is less likely to buy one.

 

[DustyBin]

On a broader point i susoect there is a bit of ‘trending’ in terms of EV buying, ie someone buys an EV, their freinds / neighbours see it or get a lift in it, and that causes them to buy an EV. It’s anecdotal, but I’ve seen that happen near me. Conversely, if no one in a street / freindship group buys one, then the ‘group’ is less likely to buy one.

I've witnessed the same thing at work; once the first couple of people got their EV a larger group followed (obviously helped by the BIK incentive!).

Conversely, no one in our street has an EV yet. I thought the guy three doors along may have gone for one as he replaced his 640d fairly recently, but he went for for a 530i instead (I think that's pure petrol and not even a mild hybrid?). My recent test drive of an i4 left me feeling a bit "meh" so I probably won't be leading the way either!

 

[HSTEd]

Well if that became a problem (and I'm not convinced it would due to diversity and the fact it's hardly likely everyone on a street is going to wan to charge their car at the same time, and even if they did, it may not be an issue on every LV circuit), it could still be controlled by the energy supplier. The DNO knows which circuit each MPAN is on and could supply that data to Octopus along with the current limits for said circuits. Just becomes another input to the algorithm, so as well as me getting different charge slots from someone in Birmingham, I may also now get different charge slots from my neighbour.

The grid demand is going to look totally different to anything that has existed till now, electricity consumption is going to skyrocket and there will be heat pumps or similar electric heating in areas that have never had it before.
Without a total reconstruction of the DNO system, for which the materiel and personnel do not exist, compromises will have to be made to allow the necessary increase in power delivery.

I can't see anyone suggesting spending billions of pounds retrofitting equipment to every LV distribution circuit and every home EVSE to allow switching by the DNO. Indeed, how would that even work in practice with something like Intelligent Octopus. I tell Octopus I want the car charged by 6am, it maps the charge sessions but then the DNO steps in and turns it off??

Well if the DNO doesn't step in to turn it off the main fuse on the low voltage feeder blows and you won't be getting your car charged any time soon!
Equipment to allow remote control of loads by the DNO already exists in the UK and has done for decades (using radio 4 longwave), indeed in New Zealand essentially every house already has that equipment. It's certainly far less expensive than smart metering.

In essence the DNO would keep watch on the load on the feeder and order car chargers/hot water heaters etc to throttle to avoid exceeding the rating of the circuit.
This allows the system to be run far harder than it can be today, which is necessary given the projected explosion in electricity use.

Well, we've seen there's ways to manage the grid load at both local, regional and national level. Why does every car need to be plugged in whenever possible though?

Because cars that are not plugged in when the power glut occurs will have to be charged with exceptionally expensive "peak" electricity rather than free electricity that will have to be thrown away otherwise.

Why are cars the only way of dealing with a glut? We can:

• Heat hot water for use later
• Heat buffer tanks for space heating later
• Store energy in pumped storage, liquid air storage or grid connected batteries
• Curtail excess production (and the Octopus model is partially about avoiding curtailment)
• Export excess power to France, Norway, Netherlands etc

Curtailing excess production is clearly not an attractive way of doing things, and certainly is not preferably to "inefficient" car charging!

"I don't want to waste energy on inefficiently charging the cars so I will throw the power away instead" is hardly a sensible position!

But in any case, yes we have those systems, and we will need all of them.
We will be looking at power gluts that last hours and run to tens of gigawatts of excess production.

Every kWh possible must be captured to reduce total system cost and thus cost to the consumer base.

We've had an electricity grid for decades, I don't really understand why suddenly we have to have millions of cars plugged in charging very inefficiently at low power.

We've not had a wind, nuclear and solar dominated grid, which has fundamentally different dynamics to a conventional fossil or hydro powered grid. The closest grid in a large country I'm aware of was the pre EU-harmonisation French one, where the time of use tarrif (Option Tempo) allowed for a factor of 20x in cost between lowest and highest price electricity (it used to swing from about 3 eurocents to 57!), although that has flattened out now (to 7x) because the broader European grid is not nuclear dominated.

Power will either be enormously expensive or it will be free, cars that are not plugged in when a power glut occurs will have to be be charged with the extraordinarily expensive electricity rather than the free stuff.

And even 30 million 3kW chargers will be able to absorb a spike of 90GW!