What's to come on the railways in 2024

[Adrian1980uk]

I'm expecting more stories of overcrowding and talk of revenue gaps to quietly being dropped as it won't be the experience of the average person on the railway travelling in empty trains anymore so will become a harder argument for reducing services

 

[GRALISTAIR]

It’s an election year. Everything will be guided by that.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

It’s an election year. Everything will be guided by that.

Yes be interesting what's promised

There's a little bit of a political steam got up on Ely junction upgrade locally to me.

 

[778]

It’s an election year. Everything will be guided by that.

2024 Preditions

1) If labour wins the election (which they probably will), I would expect the Southeastern Metro services to be transfered over to TFL and will become part of the Overground Network. If the election take place in October as expected then 2024 may be a bit early for that, and it could be a few years until TFL takes control anyway.

2) I would expect that the 701s will finally enter service.

3) The RMT dispute to be settled and no more rail strikes.

4) Hopefully this does not happen, but I think at least one preserved railway will shut next year because of financial problems.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

There's a little bit of a political steam got up on Ely junction upgrade locally to me.

That would immensely help F2N/MN project as a key part

 

[Sutton in Ant]

I am hopeful that the 379s will come out of storage and will end up with GTR GN?

 

[Neptune]

3) The RMT dispute to be settled and no more rail strikes.

The RMT settled last month

 

[Rail Quest]

Couple of things on the freight side:
- The new ROG 93s should be out and about next year including mainline debut, testing, loco moves from ports perhaps as well - lots to look forward to there!
- DB will probably withdraw the rest of their 60s
- Perhaps we'll get some better pictures of the GBRf 99s being constructed, even though they aren't due to be delivered till 2025
- I'm predicting both the current government and whoever wins the election will do little or nothing towards recently announced railfreight expansions.

Come to think of it, I've probably forgotten a load haha

 

[A S Leib]

- No more long-term cuts to service frequencies but without necessarily returning to the December 2019 timetable (although I'd guess at this point any service additions being decided would likely take place in 2025 or later?).

- The Levenmouth line opens and the Northumberland line and Bicester – Bletchley don't until the first half of 2025.

- I think Avanti's 807s were meant to start this year, so I'd bet on 2025 for EMR's 810s entering service, although I don't know tonnes about the progress of either.

- TransPennine Express and CrossCountry will continue to have severe overcrowding issues.

 

[RobShipway]

You have the introduction of Class 805 and 807 units with Advanti West Coast possibly Summer 2024. As @778 states you will also hopefully have the introduction of class 701 units.

As @Rail Quest we will possibly see the Class 93.

@Adrian1980uk I am not sure the trains will get overcrowded, especially with the rise in fares that is due to happen in March.

Since the last election was in December 2019, and the ruling that elections have to be every 4 - 5 years has been taken away, we could potentially have the current Government to December 2025. But if an election was to take place, then I suspect that will be in December 2024 and not before that time.

Depending on what orders the Alstom factory in Derby has left to complete, we may hear about when it is likely to close. I do wonder whether the building of the HS2 trains will move to Newton Aycliffe if there is capacity or whether Hitachi will take over the ownership of Litchurch Lane.

Could any of the new trains that the likes of Northern are considering be ordered next year?

 

[A S Leib]

Since the last election was in December 2019, and the ruling that elections have to be every 4 - 5 years has been taken away, we could potentially have the current Government to December 2025. But if an election was to take place, then I suspect that will be in December 2024 and not before that time.

It hasn't been taken away. The rule under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 was that general elections occurred by default every five years in May unless either a government lost a vote of no confidence or two-thirds of MPs were to vote in favour of an early election. The situation prior to and since the repeal of the FTPA is that Parliament can't decide when the next election is and the PM can call early general elections, but the five-year limit remains. 28 January 2025 is therefore still the latest legal date for the next general election (dissolution of the current parliament by 17 December 2024).

 

[RobShipway]

It hasn't been taken away. The rule under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 was that general elections occurred by default every five years in May unless either a government lost a vote of no confidence or two-thirds of MPs were to vote in favour of an early election. The situation prior to and since the repeal of the FTPA is that Parliament can't decide when the next election is and the PM can call early general elections, but the five-year limit remains. 28 January 2025 is therefore still the latest legal date for the next general election (dissolution of the current parliament by 17 December 2024).

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06111/

Thank you for the Clarification, but as per the above link, the FTPA was repealed in 2022 as part of the Dissolution and Calling Parliament Bill. As per the link this enables as Government to call an election at the time of their choosing.

 

[A S Leib]

By "it hasn't been taken away" I meant the five-year limit hasn't been taken away, not that the FTPA hasn't been repealed. I should have been clearer.

Either way, a general election next calendar year's considerably more likely than not.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

You have the introduction of Class 805 and 807 units with Advanti West Coast possibly Summer 2024. As @778 states you will also hopefully have the introduction of class 701 units.

As @Rail Quest we will possibly see the Class 93.

@Adrian1980uk I am not sure the trains will get overcrowded, especially with the rise in fares that is due to happen in March.

Since the last election was in December 2019, and the ruling that elections have to be every 4 - 5 years has been taken away, we could potentially have the current Government to December 2025. But if an election was to take place, then I suspect that will be in December 2024 and not before that time.

Depending on what orders the Alstom factory in Derby has left to complete, we may hear about when it is likely to close. I do wonder whether the building of the HS2 trains will move to Newton Aycliffe if there is capacity or whether Hitachi will take over the ownership of Litchurch Lane.

Could any of the new trains that the likes of Northern are considering be ordered next year?

Given the Budget is set for March 6 then its very likely the election is actually May which is now the rumour. Legally we cannot have it until december 2025 thats illegal.
Current legislation dictates parliament to dissolve by the 17 December 2024

You miss the point @RobShipway. The fact is there is a limit by the 17 December 2024, they have to call an election they can call it anytime between now and then without parliament needing to approve it which is the change but there is a limit.

@A S Leib it has been confirmed to be next year for certain by Sunak so whenever it happens we are expecting the Tories to be out and Labour to be in. Expected originally to be Autumn 2024 but given the budget being early it is expected now to be May.

 

[A S Leib]

@A S Leib it has been confirmed to be next year for certain by Sunak

Depending on how much one trusts Sunak, but I think the longer he waits - and the shorter the days are - the worse it will be for the Conservatives.

so whenever it happens we are expecting the Tories to be out and Labour to be in.

Agreed – no party has won a general election in modern British history whilst below 30% in opinion polls at the start of the year.

Expected originally to be Autumn 2024 but given the budget being early it is expected now to be May

The 2021 Budget was 3 March - it isn't particularly early. (Although I think Budgets around then were still slightly off because of Covid.)

Moving things back to railway predictions, what are the odds that the line between Wigan and Bolton will see passengers carried in electric trains in the next 369 days?

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Depending on how much one trusts Sunak, but I think the longer he waits - and the shorter the days are - the worse it will be for the Conservatives.

Agreed – no party has won a general election in modern British history whilst below 30% in opinion polls at the start of the year.

The 2021 Budget was 3 March - it isn't particularly early. (Although I think Budgets around then were still slightly off because of Covid.)

Moving things back to railway predictions, what are the odds that the line between Wigan and Bolton will see passengers carried in electric trains in the next 369 days?

Top comment agreed. Early because of Covid, last year was the 15 March and in 1992 there was an early budget, next day an election was called.


I think Labour change would change rail policy for sure. Arent some stations due to open in 2024? Top of my head would be White Rose, Leven and Cameron Bridge stations and the Ashington line although i understand that has been delayed to the Autumn so could potentially slip further maybe?

 

[43096]

1. A general election that sees a Labour win will not be the land of milk and honey that so many expect. Rachel Reeves will refuse to plant the magic money tree and the railways will be near the bottom of the list for any cash that is available.

2. Strikes will continue, as the 2024 pay review cycle sees disputes opened up again.

3. The quality of the railway will continue to deteriorate (amazingly it can still get worse...!) whilst the cost to the customer will continue to increase.

 

[Silenos]

I think Labour change would change rail policy for sure.

I’m really doubtful of that. Starmer’s current approach, insofar as it can be determined, seems to be to continue the Tory programme, just with a Labour rose pinned to the front. I expect the end of 2024 to see a Labour government locked in dispute with the rail unions.

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

I’m really doubtful of that. Starmer’s current approach, insofar as it can be determined, seems to be to continue the Tory programme, just with a Labour rose pinned to the front. I expect the end of 2024 to see a Labour government locked in dispute with the rail unions.

Nationalisation is on the cards for a start on rail.

 

[AM9]

I’m really doubtful of that. Starmer’s current approach, insofar as it can be determined, seems to be to continue the Tory programme, just with a Labour rose pinned to the front. I expect the end of 2024 to see a Labour government locked in dispute with the rail unions.

I think that Kier Starmer is just keeping Labour's plans back until the Government announces the election date. There's no need for Labour to announce planned policies is the Government doesn't give an election date as intervening events might require a change in those policies - or extend their scorched earth activities to make those policies inviable. In addition, the Conservative party might just steal any of those policies and claim them as theirs.

 

[yorksrob]

Exactly, lets waid and see what they put in the manifesto.

 

[Ken H]

I think fuel prices will be more important than any election. Will an increase see people transfer from car to train, or just stay at home. And what will the railway do about its own fuel costs?

And what is the state of government finances? Will they have to cut rail support to pay for schools and hospitals, and interest on borrowing? Are there the votes in rail spend now post Covid.

Will the railway be able to retain staff? Why be one of the lower paid staff (cleaner, despatcher, guard, security etc) when you can work regular hours in a warehouse somewhere, or even delivering parcels.

And will civil unrest affect the railways more. We have seen protesters close rail stations this year. That will make rail travel less attractive, affecting revenue.

 

[YorksLad12]

March: Sunak calls an election.
Also March: Aslef announces strikes in April.

(It's what I'd do.)

 

[JonathanH]

March: Sunak calls an election.
Also March: Aslef announces strikes in April.

(It's what I'd do.)

The RMT should be able to reballot at some point as well, as it was only an agreement on the 2022 pay increase that they reached.

Negotiations with Network Rail about the 2024 increase must have to start at some point as well.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

Nationalisation is on the cards for a start on rail.

They say it is but it really isn’t.

All they talk about is bringing the remaining DfT TOCs in house when contracts expire. Nothing about being all rail services and train ownership house which would happen under nationalisation.

Open access and freight have never been spoken about being nationalised just the handful of DfT TOCs.

 

[Thirteen]

If Labour wins, I imagine they'll probably try and sort a fair few things. I fully expect TfL will get long term funding by the end of next year regardless of who becomes Mayor of London.

 

[778]

I fully expect TfL will get long term funding by the end of next year regardless of who becomes Mayor of London.

Do you think that will mean TFL taking over the Southeastern inner suburban lines?

 

[JonathanH]

Do you think that will mean TFL taking over the Southeastern inner suburban lines?

How much additional funding would TfL need to make a difference? It seems very unlikely in the near term.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

If Labour wins, I imagine they'll probably try and sort a fair few things. I fully expect TfL will get long term funding by the end of next year regardless of who becomes Mayor of London.

Labour seem to be promising a magic money tree to sort everything! Wonder where they are growing this tree!

 

[JonathanH]

Labour seem to be promising a magic money tree to sort everything! Wonder where they are growing this tree!

I'm not sure Labour are actually making such promises, hence the accusation that they are just the existing government with a red rosette.

People just seem to think they will be able to sort things, without thinking about how if the money coming in is the same.

What Labour appear to have actually said is that they need ten years to turn things round by developing an economy with greater growth prospects.

A big bang in 2024 of all problems being sorted just by a change in politics is very unlikely.