Restarting HS2a

[SynthD]

The worst part is that they do not appear to be planning to utilise it as a shuttle.

What makes you think that?

 

[pokemonsuper9]

What makes you think that?

Probably the ongoing thread about compulsory reservations

HS2 Compulsory Reservations

The Standard are running a piece saying all HS2 passengers are guarenteed a seat. Whilst this is probably good from a PR perspective (opening a new railway and within days having people standing on crowded trains) it screams to be capacity crunch- something which HS2 really cannot afford in its...

www.railforums.co.uk

Compulsory reservations and a high frequency service don't really work together, imagine if the Overground had compulsory reservations.
It's only expected to be 50 minutes London - Birmingham, people stand for longer on London commuter trains every day.

 

[philosopher]

The worst part is that they do not appear to be planning to utilise it as a shuttle.

I'm coming around to the position they should go and buy a ~15 TGV-M sets (maybe doubles!) with Ouigo interiors and run an ~8 train per hour turn-up-and-go shuttle.

The trains would be largely carrying fresh air if they were at that frequency. Even with three trains an hour to Birmingham, I doubt they would be particularly busy as HS2 will still be competing with other services to Birmingham.

 

[The Planner]

After all the planning and billions spent, it's just going to be a London Birmingham shuttle.

Incorrect, Handsacre will get built.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Are rail distances of the mileage length such as that between two cities of London and Birmingham normally described as shuttles or is that just a sarcastic term used by website members who are unhappy?

 

[daodao]

Incorrect, Handsacre will get built.

While Handsacre will be built, allowing express trains to NW England and Glasgow to use HS2 phase 1, I presume that without a relief line to bypass Shugborough tunnel, most Manchester services will still need to be routed via Macclesfield.

 

[Class15]

Incorrect, Handsacre will get built.

I can, to be honest, see it getting canned.

 

[The Planner]

I can, to be honest, see it getting canned.

How much do you want to bet?

While Handsacre will be built, allowing express trains to NW England and Glasgow to use HS2 phase 1, I presume that without a relief line to bypass Shugborough tunnel, most Manchester services will still need to be routed via Macclesfield.

Still being decided, clearly one will.

 

[Class15]

How much do you want to bet?


Still being decided, clearly one will.

Nothing, it completely depends on government policy towards railways, which so far does not look great.

 

[The Planner]

Nothing, it completely depends on government policy towards railways, which so far does not look great.

It will get built.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It's in scope, if paused for now (part of the measures to cap annual spend on HS2).
Contracts to build it have been let (unlike Phase 2a/2b).
A solution that doesn't connect with the WCML is complete folly.
The viaducts at Water Orton to connect on to Handsacre are already under construction, and a lot of work has been done at the Lichfield end under the WCML and the A38 complex to the east.

 

[Nottingham59]

It looks to me that Handsacre junction will get built, but delayed by a couple of years to spread out the cash expenditure profile; it's part of phase 1, after all. After that, who knows? Nothing will be decided until after the Comprehensive Spending Review.

 

[fishwomp]

Are rail distances of the mileage length such as that between two cities of London and Birmingham normally described as shuttles or is that just a sarcastic term used by website members who are unhappy?

Why shouldn't it be described as a shuttle? What's pejorative about that?
Glasgow - Edinburgh would be one - same journey time, high frequency.
In the airlines - some like the old New York to Boston shuttle would literally close check-in at T-15 mins for those without bags, I heard Heathrow - Edinburgh was called a shuttle 'back in the day' - you arrived, when it got full, it left (I suspect that was a bit of an exaggeration, it must have needed a timetable given the Heathrow state of congestion) - but now you have to have connections that are at least 90 mins on an incoming flight..

Shuttle is a good description of a turn-up-and-go service that's frequent, and usually fast.

Now, you could choose to make people arrive 30 mins early to make sure they are not delayed en route, and put a 15 minute check in, book three weeks ahead, spend 10 minutes walking to find their predesignated seat 395 metres away from the entrance, but I'm struggling to see a value in all that.

 

[takno]

It looks to me that Handsacre junction will get built, but delayed by a couple of years to spread out the cash expenditure profile; it's part of phase 1, after all. After that, who knows? Nothing will be decided until after the Comprehensive Spending Review.

Realistically it's probably not even delayed by the announcement, since it was all running so late anyway. The announcement is more a case of making the annual spending commitments line up with what the costs are actually going to be.

 

[Nottingham59]

Realistically it's probably not even delayed by the announcement, since it was all running so late anyway. The announcement is more a case of making the annual spending commitments line up with what the costs are actually going to be.

Probably. Though I will revise what I said. I'm pretty sure that HS2 will be built from Delta Junction to Fradley. If the decision were made to continue to Baldwins gate, then it is possible that the chord from Fradley to Handsacre might be dropped, as it would then only be of use to Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent.

 

[The Planner]

Probably. Though I will revise what I said. I'm pretty sure that HS2 will be built from Delta Junction to Fradley. If the decision were made to continue to Baldwins gate, then it is possible that the chord from Fradley to Handsacre might be dropped, as it would then only be of use to Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent.

Handsacre will get built.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Are rail distances of the mileage length such as that between two cities of London and Birmingham normally described as shuttles or is that just a sarcastic term used by website members who are unhappy?

Forget the mileage. Once a particular journey time comes down (especially to under an hour) and the frequency goes up then it will look like a "shuttle". Even if it is only arguably halfway to "shuttle" status the effect on carryings will be positive. The Birmingham services will be shuttle territory.

Very likely good walk up fares and no reservations. After all those things can and will be changed later no doubt when demand needs to be "managed" !.

Having Phase-2a sooner rather than later brings more of the North West into that attractive shuttle territory. Otherwise those services will still run via HS1 to Handsacre but will not get so close to "shuttle" status, certainly on frequency.

My bet is Handsacre will be built (a bit late) and then it is just a matter of how soon after it is made to look less necessary. Obviously Phase-2a will lose some of its benefit after the link at Handacre is built but something is better than nothing. Phase-2a is too far for this countries GDP currently I am afraid. So just pray the Birmingham Shuttle shows decision makers the benefits of HS2 sooner rather than later.

 

[jadmor]

Why shouldn't it be described as a shuttle? What's pejorative about that?
Glasgow - Edinburgh would be one - same journey time, high frequency.
In the airlines - some like the old New York to Boston shuttle would literally close check-in at T-15 mins for those without bags, I heard Heathrow - Edinburgh was called a shuttle 'back in the day' - you arrived, when it got full, it left (I suspect that was a bit of an exaggeration, it must have needed a timetable given the Heathrow state of congestion) - but now you have to have connections that are at least 90 mins on an incoming flight..

Shuttle is a good description of a turn-up-and-go service that's frequent, and usually fast.

Now, you could choose to make people arrive 30 mins early to make sure they are not delayed en route, and put a 15 minute check in, book three weeks ahead, spend 10 minutes walking to find their predesignated seat 395 metres away from the entrance, but I'm struggling to see a value in all that.

If I remember correctly, BA promised to have a standby aircraft ready to go if the scheduled flight was full. I can remember making a mad dash to Heathrow in 1979 and just making it in time to get the last flight to Glasgow; pretty much straight off the underground and on to the plane.

 

[Nottingham59]

Once a particular journey time comes down (especially to under an hour) and the frequency goes up then it will look like a "shuttle". Even if it is only arguably halfway to "shuttle" status the effect on carryings will be positive. The Birmingham services will be shuttle territory.

This is the planned concourse at Old Oak Common:

https://assets.hs2.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/01462_N76_pressnew-scaled.jpg

It will be difficult to enforce that people take their "booked" train. If trains to Birmingham are departing every 15 or 20 minutes, then if you arrive early for one train, then people will simply board the train before - especially if they have paid a first class flexible fare and there are plenty of empty seats.

Unless you programme the gates not to allow access to the Mezzanine floor until after the previous train has left, I suppose. Or check the tickets of 1100 passengers in the 30 minutes before arriving at Interchange.

 

[swt_passenger]

Are rail distances of the mileage length such as that between two cities of London and Birmingham normally described as shuttles or is that just a sarcastic term used by website members who are unhappy?

I reckon a true “shuttle service” uses only one unit, that goes back and forth like er… a shuttle. The Lymington flyer and any other similar routes using one unit only are shuttles. HS2 will not be.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I reckon a true “shuttle service” uses only one unit, that goes back and forth like er… a shuttle. The Lymington flyer and any other similar routes using one unit only are shuttles. HS2 will not be.

That would be my understanding as I am sure that there will be a tad more train units running between London and Birmingham.

 

[Nottingham59]

I reckon a true “shuttle service” uses only one unit, that goes back and forth like er… a shuttle. The Lymington flyer and any other similar routes using one unit only are shuttles. HS2 will not be.

I think that's a very limited definition. If the Birmingham service were to run at a regular 4tph with all trains calling at Old Oak and Interchange only, then I'd call that a "Shuttle" service.

If there were variations in calling pattern (so that if for instance 1tph to Curzon St continued on to Glasgow and 1tph went on to Manchester) then it loses the character of a simple Shuttle.

 

[HSTEd]

The trains would be largely carrying fresh air if they were at that frequency. Even with three trains an hour to Birmingham, I doubt they would be particularly busy as HS2 will still be competing with other services to Birmingham.

HS2s break even fare will be so much lower that the government would be incentivised to move all possible traffic to Birmingham onto it.

Given that fares will be or are set entirely by the state, expect meaningful "competition' to cease rapidly.

Indeed it would probably be cheaper for the state if people from further north changed in Birmingham

 

[Krokodil]

Are rail distances of the mileage length such as that between two cities of London and Birmingham normally described as shuttles or is that just a sarcastic term used by website members who are unhappy?

Didn't BR once brand the Euston to Birmingham/Manchester services as "Intercity Shuttle"? Certainly I'd regard it as no bad thing if those flows could be treated as a turn up and go service at a reasonable price with an almost guaranteed chance of finding a seat.

Nothing, it completely depends on government policy towards railways, which so far does not look great.

Even the helicopter enthusiast didn’t scrap Handsacre.

 

[weeklycommuter]

Handsacre will get built.

Noting the following exchange I have to wonder how Handsacre Junction will be built if it is built. I cannot see how it would work to connect HS2 to the outer two slow lines of the West Coast Mainline at Handsacre Junction and run all HS2 train services North of Birmingham through Handsacre Junction. This is the fundamental problem with cancelling phase 2a. Surely it makes financial sense not to build Handsacre Junction and instead continue HS2 on the 2a route and connect HS2 to the West Coast Mainline South of Crewe as the Oakervee review recommended.

https://committees.parliament.uk/oralevidence/13783/html

Transport Committee
Oral evidence: HS2: progress update, HC 85
Wednesday 8 November 2023

Q313 Jack Brereton: I wanted initially to ask a question about Handsacre. There are concerns that the design for Handsacre will need to be further revised now. I do not know if you are aware—I am sure you may be—that the original proposal for Handsacre was for it to connect into the fast lines, but then it was changed by HS2 in 2018-19. Why was that decision changed?
Professor McNaughton: It was changed because 2a was taking the majority of services direct to Crewe. Therefore, it would not be used anything like as intensively and there was a cost saving from a simpler, de-scoped Handsacre. It is probably arguable whether you needed Handsacre at all, but it maintained the connection to Stoke-on-Trent.
In the original scheme there was only phase 1. All trains north of Birmingham would come off HS2 and join the west coast there, so it had to be, let’s call it, a full fat scheme that joined the fast lines. If you are only going to run one or two trains an hour over that, you can have a simpler junction. That is what its capacity is now. If you are not running most of the trains direct to Crewe, people will have to go back, scrap the design and change it in full flight. That will cost an inordinately—
Q314 Jack Brereton: The design to connect it into the slow lines, which is what has come forward at the moment, required a longer viaduct. How is that a cost saving?
Professor McNaughton: It was cost saving because of the impact on Network Rail and all the changes on the Network Rail layout. Unless something has fundamentally changed in the laws of physics since I last looked at it, you cannot deliver the whole of the HS2 phase 1 service on to the slow lines without actually cancelling your freight trains.
Q315 Jack Brereton: You are advocating a redesign of Handsacre?
Professor McNaughton: I think it is inevitable and an unfortunate consequence, and then bang goes some of the money that you might have saved from not doing 2a.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Noting the following exchange I have to wonder how Handsacre Junction will be built if it is built. I cannot see how it would work to connect HS2 to the outer two slow lines of the West Coast Mainline at Handsacre Junction and run all HS2 train services North of Birmingham through Handsacre Junction. This is the fundamental problem with cancelling phase 2a. Surely it makes financial sense not to build Handsacre Junction and instead continue HS2 on the 2a route and connect HS2 to the West Coast Mainline South of Crewe as the Oakervee review recommended.

Theres no common sense when it comes to HS2 because the HS2 Ltd have spaffed a load of money away already so its become toxic for any politician and it still far enough away to keep kicking the can down the road on making decisions on things like Handsacre.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Didn't BR once brand the Euston to Birmingham/Manchester services as "Intercity Shuttle"? Certainly I'd regard it as no bad thing if those flows could be treated as a turn up and go service at a reasonable price with an almost guaranteed chance of finding a seat.

Do you, hand on heart, really and truly believe that will actually be the case where "reasonable fares" would be applied., after so much money had been spent on providing the required infrastructure and train units?

Why not put your aspiration to the test, buy a hotel in a holiday resort and only charge "reasonable" hotel prices.

 

[HSTEd]

Noting the following exchange I have to wonder how Handsacre Junction will be built if it is built. I cannot see how it would work to connect HS2 to the outer two slow lines of the West Coast Mainline at Handsacre Junction and run all HS2 train services North of Birmingham through Handsacre Junction. This is the fundamental problem with cancelling phase 2a. Surely it makes financial sense not to build Handsacre Junction and instead continue HS2 on the 2a route and connect HS2 to the West Coast Mainline South of Crewe as the Oakervee review recommended.

I'd hope redesigning Handsacre again, or simply axing the freight paths, would not cost anything like £7bn!
That's the top end of the cost of going to crewe, at least that HS2 would admit to.

EDIT: Plus abandoning handsacre means abandoning traffic from Stoke and Macclesfield etc.

Do you, hand on heart, really and truly believe that will actually be the case where "reasonable fares" would be applied., after so much money had been spent on providing the required infrastructure and train units?

Because the government currently loses money on London-Birmingham classic railway passengers.

The best way for the government to utilise the HS2 capacity is to use it to stop shovelling quite so much money into the classic railway.

The government will be incentivised to move as much traffic as possible to HS2 because it will lose less money that way.
Fares are after all, only one component of the railway's income.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The government will be incentivised to move as much traffic as possible to HS2 because it will lose less money that way.
Fares are after all, only one component of the railway's income.

I am interested to know what other income than passenger fares would be generated on the London to Birmingham rail route.

 

[Krokodil]

Do you, hand on heart, really and truly believe that will actually be the case where "reasonable fares" would be applied., after so much money had been spent on providing the required infrastructure and train units?

Supply and demand. Boost the supply of seats drastically and the price goes down.

Peak train from Birmingham to London. 390/1. 500 standard class seats at £95 each is £47k in revenue.

2 x HS2 classic compatible units. 850 standard class seats at £60 each is £48k in revenue. For a peak fare over that distance that's pretty reasonable, no?

If the captive units ever happen (which would probably only be with the full Y open) then you're looking at 1300-1400 standard class seats per train.

Why not put your aspiration to the test, buy a hotel in a holiday resort and only charge "reasonable" hotel prices

If there are plenty of vacant rooms then reasonable prices is indeed what any hotel would charge.