I suggest there is no way that Heathrow Airport Ltd (or whatever they are called today?) will want to create (say) 50% more slots and not want to fill them (or at least maximise their use) and similarly income. Aerial porcine movement? I doubt there will be disproportionate costs falling upon them, though possibly / probably on 'the taxpayer' whether directly or indirectly- noise, congestion etc.I would argue that this is exactly where aviation planning has gone completely wrong. The sensible thing to do would have been to cap flight numbers at Heathrow to eliminate this, and there are plenty of flights where there isn't much transit traffic. For example, I can't imagine there's much transit traffic from Derry or Istanbul, and these flights could easily be accommodated elsewhere. Likewise, KLM have quite a few flights into Heathrow, which will be catering for transit traffic through Schipol. There's really no reason why these flights couldn't depart from Southend or elsewhere.
To pursue the argument about transit passengers- is there data available?? eg where do incomers from Derry transit to; or arrivals from Istanbul travel onto? Are there flights between Derry or Istanbul and Manchester or Edinburgh- could there be? It's rather like the arguments about trains in GB direct from 'everywhere to everwhere' without changing at New Street or Crewe, or both?
I appreciate that data is of limited value as we are considering what figures are likely to be several years ahead (in a changing 'world'); more important will be people's perception of 'the pound in their pocket', job prospects, housing (esp it's price) and figures purporting to show GROWTH. It was said that Mrs Thatcher brought down unemployment by changing its definition. Is there an agreed definition of 'growth' by which the government will be judged, or the possible impact of this or that investment or deregulation measure? That's politics. No more Grenfell Towers or Credit Crunches thank you- more regulation is needed not less, nor 'light touch'. Nor a government that's an easy touch.