Drax Output to be Reduced after 2027

[Yew]

Basically no wind = no grid unless National Grid stump up £12m for 3 hours. Talk about the Green agenda !!

Could you elaborate on this please?

 

[xotGD]

We are going to carry on needing thermal plants for peaking. However, if these take the form of hydrogen fuel cells or hydrogen fuelled OCGT or CCGT units, then this too can be zero or near-zero carbon (assuming that the fuel meets the low carbon hydrogen standard).

Green hydrogen can act as a storage vector, using up surplus renewable in times of excess, and being used for power generation when it is cold, dark and windless.

We have drifted a long way from the frequency of biomass trains serving Drax!

 

[JamesT]

You have completely missed my point.

If there is not enough power to serve all, which of those countries will willingly take a power cut to maintain a supply to the UK?

It's a market, whoever is prepared to pay the most to get the power will get it.

 

[paul1609]

Fortunately, 2 x 2GW sub-sea links are under construction between Scotland and England, EGL2 between Peterhead and Drax (work started in September), and EGL1 Torness - County Durham (work launched on Friday). They both commission in 2029. And there’s a lot more where that came from!

I also suspect that the increasing up take of EVs will reduce the amount of plunge pricing on agile tarriffs in a few years. This spring / summer will be interesting though. We’re swapping to Agile next month…

ive just come off Agile and left Octopus for SO energy.
Living where I do off the gas grid my heating is electric and my overhead line doesnt have the capacity for a 7Kw EV charging point as well.
I'd been pretty disciplined with avoiding electricity useage in the 16.00 to 19.30 slots but the Octoprice app (which uses your actual meter readings to calculate the costs) showed that in the last year it would have been £800 cheaper for me to be on the standard Octopus Flexible Economy 7 Tariff. Interestingly Octopus Go for my domestic useage would have been even worse by about another £350. When I compared the flexible and fixed Economy 7 tarriffs it turned out that Octopus wernt actually that competitive and I was lucky to get a very competitive fixed 2 year rate from SO just before it was withdrawn over the April Prise rise scare.
Does Mrs Bald Rick appreciate that on Agile she will only be able to use the tumble dryer at 2 am on a Sunday Morning during the winter?

 

[Krokodil]

Does Mrs Bald Rick appreciate that on Agile she will only be able to use the tumble dryer at 2 am on a Sunday Morning during the winter?

The way it's been recently there hasn’t even been that perk (obviously don't run a tumble dryer while you're asleep, that's dangerous, I used the cheap power for heating water). Off-peak power has been pretty consistent at 23p/kWh for the last month and there haven't been any decent drops for a while. Can't wait for the weather to improve. That said, I reckon that I'm still saving a little compared with a normal tariff.

 

[hwl]

obviously don't run a tumble dryer while you're asleep, that's dangerous,

Which is going to become a big issue when more and more people do...

 

[Bald Rick]

You have completely missed my point.

If there is not enough power to serve all, which of those countries will willingly take a power cut to maintain a supply to the UK?

I did completely miss your point. But I see others have answered - those prepared to pay less for energy will take a ‘power cut’ - in a managed way. Already happens in this country regularly. I’m willing to bet its happened today.

Does Mrs Bald Rick appreciate that on Agile she will only be able to use the tumble dryer at 2 am on a Sunday Morning during the winter?

Mr Bald Rick does most of the laundry.

obviously don't run a tumble dryer while you're asleep, that's dangerous

I don’t get this. Why is it more dangerous when you‘re asleep?

 

[43066]

I don’t get this. Why is it more dangerous when you‘re asleep?

Presumably in case it catches fire. Not sure how common that really is, though.

 

[Bald Rick]

Presumably in case it catches fire. Not sure how common that really is, though.

But surely that risk is the same whether I‘m awake, asleep, or doing some loud DIY in the bathroom (for example). If any appliance catches fire, and I’m in the house (in any state of conciousness), I would expect my smoke alarm to warn me pronto.

 

[The Ham]

I don’t get this. Why is it more dangerous when you‘re asleep?

I suspect it's because a fire (which is a higher risk if you don't clean out the relevant filters at regular intervals) would likely spread further before someone could deal with it (although even so such things are a semi regular thing nationally, at 668 fires that's not much ahead of the 624 washing machine fires which aren't seen as having the same risk).

 

[Bald Rick]

I suspect it's because a fire (which is a higher risk if you don't clean out the relevant filters at regular intervals) would likely spread further before someone could deal with it

But if I‘m upstairs, or in the front room, I’m going to know about a fire in the tumble drier at the same time regardless of whether I’m asleep or not, and my response time will be identical. I genuinely have no idea what sleep has to do with it.

 

[43066]

But surely that risk is the same whether I‘m awake, asleep, or doing some loud DIY in the bathroom (for example). If any appliance catches fire, and I’m in the house (in any state of conciousness), I would expect my smoke alarm to warn me pronto.

I suppose, with everything else being equal, if you’re awake you’re likely to notice more quickly, eg smelling burning before the alarm goes off. Although clearly there will be some scenarios where it would make little to no difference, as you say.

Although, I must say, using a tumble driver at all sounds like a waste of electricity to me!

 

[Trainbike46]

I suspect it's because a fire (which is a higher risk if you don't clean out the relevant filters at regular intervals) would likely spread further before someone could deal with it (although even so such things are a semi regular thing nationally, at 668 fires that's not much ahead of the 624 washing machine fires which aren't seen as having the same risk).

It's important to remember that basically every household has a washing machine, but many households do not have, or rarely use, a clothesdryer

But if I‘m upstairs, or in the front room, I’m going to know about a fire in the tumble drier at the same time regardless of whether I’m asleep or not, and my response time will be identical. I genuinely have no idea what sleep has to do with it.

Likely simply that many people would expect to be slower if asleep than if awake

 

[Nottingham59]

I don’t get this. Why is it more dangerous when you‘re asleep?

It's general advice: not all homes will have smoke alarms, and many that do will have let the batteries go flat without realising it. And some people will sleep through a smoke alarm, espcially if there is a closed door between them and the alarm.

And some fires, especially involving furniture with polyurethane foam, will give out poisonous fumes (hydrogen cyanide and carbon monoxide) which will kill a sleeper before they wake up.

But IF you are certain your fire alarm(s) work; and that they will wake you up in time; and that the smoke will get to the alarm before the cyanide fumes from any furnishings will get to you, then go ahead and run your tumble dryer overnight.

It's what I do, lol.

 

[PyrahnaRanger]

I suppose, with everything else being equal, if you’re awake you’re likely to notice more quickly, eg smelling burning before the alarm goes off. Although clearly there will be some scenarios where it would make little to no difference, as you say.

Although, I must say, using a tumble driver at all sounds like a waste of electricity to me!

Whether it's a waste depends on where you live, I suspect - ours was on pretty constantly when the kids were younger, less so now, but drying days are few and far between when you're in the lakes! That said, out latest one (purchased to replace the one that was a fire risk but didn't catch fire, as opposed to the washer which was a fire risk and did catch fire...) is pretty efficient having a heat pump rather than a traditional heater.

 

[Krokodil]

But if I‘m upstairs, or in the front room, I’m going to know about a fire in the tumble drier at the same time regardless of whether I’m asleep or not, and my response time will be identical. I genuinely have no idea what sleep has to do with it.

Why you shouldn't use washing machines and tumble dryers at night | Devon and Somerset Fire and Rescue Service

When I talk to people in my community I am always amazed by how many people don’t realise it’s not safe to use appliances at night or when out of the home.

www.dsfire.gov.uk

If your tumble dryer, washing machine or dishwasher starts a fire at night – the fire may have more time to develop before you’re aware of it.

 

[Richard123]

So to round it off, every scheme you propose will require us to build at least double, sometimes more, the actual capacity to allow for all the times that each scheme in turn doesn't actually work.

I think I will stick with nuclear.

I will leave it at that. We are straying well away from railways and I expect a red ink visit imminently!

Nuclear is not a silver bullet. All technologies have a capacity factor, not just renewables.

Nuclear is complex and has been down below 30% for extended periods when faults were found. France, relatively reliant on nuclear, lost much of its fleet for more than a year but was able to get by on imports from neighbouring countries.

Nuclear also doesn't like very hot weather, as it needs cooling water temperature differential. It also requires large spinning reserve, due to the size of individual generators, and is still a challenge for grid stability if it does trip.

We will always need much more "nameplate" generating capacity than peak load as no technology is close to 100% reliable.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Feb 2025 ==

When does the grid struggle with the peak it manages it perfectly well every morning and evening

We use c900GWhs/day this time of year our current storage capacity is 6.6GWh should be nearly 10GWh by end of this year and maybe 100GWh by 2030 still leaves us well short although nuclear should still be delivering c100GWh by 2030. Ultimately you can only store when there is a surplus and when you have enough wind or sun. Spoiler alert this isn't guaranteed.

Renewables aren't cheap they are propped up by a variety of subsidy regimes aka (i) Feed-in-Tariffs (FiTs) fund mostly solar power <5MW at average cost of 193/MWh. (ii) Renewable Obligation Contracts by far the biggest subsidy scheme costing over £7bn per year average price paid for offshore wind £176/MWh, onshore £118/MWh and solar £146/MWh. (iii) Contract for Difference (replaced ROCs) average £95/MWh for offshore wind, £73/MWh onshore and £60/MWh for solar although to be fair as more new generators get added the price will step back a bit from these levels til late 2020's when it will start increasing again. The illusion they are cheap comes from the fact these subsidies are paid out centrally by recharges to suppliers and ultimately consumers which allows them to bid in low prices to the grid as they know they have the above guaranteed income streams. Gas can currently supply around £110/MWh but its price is highly correlated to gas price hence the political view from Ed Milibrand that we are at the mercy of others. We of course could lessen that by continuing to develop remaining N.Sea fields.

The broad point is renewables can't deliver all our power needs all of the time so we need "dispatchable" (ie generation we can turn on demand not wait for the sun to come up or for the wind to blow) that can only be fossil fuelled powere3d for sometime yet.

On the contrary, the CfDs have tended to settle at low prices, excepting offshore wind that was pushed in attempt to satisfy a tiny minority who hated onshore wind change. The excess gets paid back when market price exceeds the strike price, with huge repayments during the gas price spikes.

This is different to most generation which is paid the highest price, eg coal generally cost less than gas but would get paid the same price as the gas, plus of course the capacity fees (introduced as subsidy for fossil companies, albeit recent rules changes have now made it more technology agnostic).

Increased renewable quantities reduce total energy cost in all models. Our energy bills would have been much lower now had Mr Cameron not "cut the green crap" as he tried to hold his party together.

 

[Bald Rick]

I know we’re off topic, so this will be last post on this sub-subject.

But IF you are certain your fire alarm(s) work; and that they will wake you up in time; and that the smoke will get to the alarm before the cyanide fumes from any furnishings will get to you, then go ahead and run your tumble dryer overnight.

Yes I’m certain my mains powered, battery back up, interlinked smoke, heat and CO2 detectors work and will wake me up. They have done twice (no fire, but I suspect the cat may have been up to no good). I also service the tumble dryer annually, not just cleaning the filters but checking the motor, belt, condenser, all the main electrical connections and cleaning out the internals (which is deeply satisfying).

Why you shouldn't use washing machines and tumble dryers at night | Devon and Somerset Fire and Rescue Service

When I talk to people in my community I am always amazed by how many people don’t realise it’s not safe to use appliances at night or when out of the home.

www.dsfire.gov.uk

I’m not one for using the words “nanny state” but surely common sense applies. That article almost suggests you should sit and watch your electrical appliance so that you can be aware of if it catches fire; it certainly suggests you should be in the home when the appliances are on (surely being at home asleep is lower risk than of a fire spreading than not being in at all?) and also that if you have a dishwasher you might want to wash up by hand to reduce fire risk. What’s the point in having one then? I particualrly enjoyed the section on how to avoid using electrical appliances at night - use battery powered candles. (yes I know they are much safer than real candles, but they are defintiely electrical!)

 

[6Gman]

Gas runs continuously batteries run out.

Gas runs continuously -

- if you've got the gas.

And it creates environmental damage.

As I see it every kWh from solar or wind is a kWh of gas saved.

 

[Bald Rick]

Gas runs continuously -

- if you've got the gas.

And it creates environmental damage.

As I see it every kWh from solar or wind is a kWh of gas saved.

Exactly. I have no intel on the subject, but after this rather prolonged spell of colder weather, I wouldn’t be surprised if we are running a bit tight on the gas stocks front. Fortunately the sun has helped a bit, and it will again tomorrow, then it warms up and the wind starts blowing. Expect 20GW+ Sunday lunchtime!

 

[Krokodil]

I’m not one for using the words “nanny state” but surely common sense applies. That article almost suggests you should sit and watch your electrical appliance so that you can be aware of if it catches fire; it certainly suggests you should be in the home when the appliances are on (surely being at home asleep is lower risk than of a fire spreading than not being in at all?) and also that if you have a dishwasher you might want to wash up by hand to reduce fire risk. What’s the point in having one then? I particualrly enjoyed the section on how to avoid using electricsl appliabces at night - use battery powered candles. (yes I know they are much safer than real candles, but they are defintiely electrical!)

Presumably you live in a house, so have a lot of control over your environment and it's only your household who would be at risk. Like most safety advice it has to be aimed at the lowest common denominator. Someone in a flat would be putting other households at risk while they sleep (and I've lived in HMOs where the solution to the fault warning in the alarm system was to trip the breaker, rather than report the fault). Remember that the Grenfell fire was started by a faulty appliance in one of the flats.

 

[Bald Rick]

Presumably you live in a house, so have a lot of control over your environment and it's only your household who would be at risk. Like most safety advice it has to be aimed at the lowest common denominator. Someone in a flat would be putting other households at risk while they sleep (and I've lived in HMOs where the solution to the fault warning in the alarm system was to trip the breaker, rather than report the fault). Remember that the Grenfell fire was started by a faulty appliance in one of the flats.

Yes fair points. As I said, common sense applies!

 

[Krokodil]

As I said, common sense applies!

Common sense is not too common, after all.

That said, I've often set my washing machine to run in the small hours but on the basis that it would start not long before my alarm for an early shift, such that I can hang everything up before leaving. I am quite tempted to get a washer-dryer when this machine packs in, it can be a struggle to dry everything at this time of year.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Feb 2025 ==

For those who are interested, this map shows the current electricity prices within ENTSO-E countries.

European Electricity Prices

Thingler - European Electricity Prices

thingler.io

Note how cheap electricity is in northern Sweden and Norway (less than a cent per kWh in some cases) whereas consumers in the South are paying higher prices because other countries (such as the UK and Germany) bid up.

 

[takno]

I know we’re off topic, so this will be last post on this sub-subject.



Yes I’m certain my mains powered, battery back up, interlinked smoke, heat and CO2 detectors work and will wake me up. They have done twice (no fire, but I suspect the cat may have been up to no good). I also service the tumble dryer annually, not just cleaning the filters but checking the motor, belt, condenser, all the main electrical connections and cleaning out the internals (which is deeply satisfying).




I’m not one for using the words “nanny state” but surely common sense applies. That article almost suggests you should sit and watch your electrical appliance so that you can be aware of if it catches fire; it certainly suggests you should be in the home when the appliances are on (surely being at home asleep is lower risk than of a fire spreading than not being in at all?) and also that if you have a dishwasher you might want to wash up by hand to reduce fire risk. What’s the point in having one then? I particualrly enjoyed the section on how to avoid using electricsl appliabces at night - use battery powered candles. (yes I know they are much safer than real candles, but they are defintiely electrical!)

I'm vaguely surprised the article didn't recommend switching to vaping in bed tbh

 

[xotGD]

Gas runs continuously -

- if you've got the gas.

And it creates environmental damage.

As I see it every kWh from solar or wind is a kWh of gas saved.

And a reduction in the amount of gas we have to import from Qatar or the USA.

 

[paul1609]

Presumably you live in a house, so have a lot of control over your environment and it's only your household who would be at risk. Like most safety advice it has to be aimed at the lowest common denominator. Someone in a flat would be putting other households at risk while they sleep (and I've lived in HMOs where the solution to the fault warning in the alarm system was to trip the breaker, rather than report the fault). Remember that the Grenfell fire was started by a faulty appliance in one of the flats.

Wasnt Grenfell a fridge freezer? Are you advocating they are turned off at night and when youre not in?

 

[furnessvale]

I did completely miss your point. But I see others have answered - those prepared to pay less for energy will take a ‘power cut’ - in a managed way. Already happens in this country regularly. I’m willing to bet its happened today.

You are talking about what can happen internally within the UK.

I am talking about the political dynamite of a foreign government allowing the export of electricity to keep UK lights burning at the expense of power cuts in their own country.

It isn't going to happen, no matter what the market says and the UK needs to be prepared for that eventuality, which it isn't.

 

[Nottingham59]

You are talking about what can happen internally within the UK.

I am talking about the political dynamite of a foreign government allowing the export of electricity to keep UK lights burning at the expense of power cuts in their own country.

It isn't going to happen, no matter what the market says and the UK needs to be prepared for that eventuality, which it isn't.

I totally agree with you. The market mechanism is intended to keep the lights on, by incentivising those users with half-hourly metering to cut back at times of short supply. But if the European network is stressed to the point that other countries have to impose blackouts on their populations, then they will choose to stop exports to the UK first, however high the price might be at that time.

The key to avoid that is to have sufficient dependable supply available in the UK, to keep the grid working even when all the price-sensitive loads have been switched off. That will require some nuclear and biomass, but also some long-term hydro and some gas (both closed and open cycle) to be used only as very occasional back up generation.

From the railway perspective, the industry will need some process for all those bimodes to swich from AV to diesel (or biodiesel) under the wires at times of national emergency. As will all hospitals and other places that have diesel back up generators.

 

[Class 317]

I totally agree with you. The market mechanism is intended to keep the lights on, by incentivising those users with half-hourly metering to cut back at times of short supply. But if the European network is stressed to the point that other countries have to impose blackouts on their populations, then they will choose to stop exports to the UK first, however high the price might be at that time.

The key to avoid that is to have sufficient dependable supply available in the UK, to keep the grid working even when all the price-sensitive loads have been switched off. That will require some nuclear and biomass, but also some long-term hydro and some gas (both closed and open cycle) to be used only as very occasional back up generation.

From the railway perspective, the industry will need some process for all those bimodes to swich from AV to diesel (or biodiesel) under the wires at times of national emergency. As will all hospitals and other places that have diesel back up generators.

I'm not ot sure that the interconnectors are really understood. They are there to balance the demand and supply across Europe at lowest cost. That does not mean we are reliant on them to prevent power cuts. Having more of them reduces the cost of moving to a greener grid but does not make it more vulnerable. The reason being that it's unlikely the whole of the European grid will not have some spare capacity even during a cold snap as it's such a large grid in total with a very good mix of renewables and nuclear options.

During the recent cold spell where 2 gas power stations were called upon for 3 hours and could charge £12m it's been widely reported as we were so close to a power cut but this is wrong. We still had options to switch on additional gas power stations, back up diesel generators as users signed up to offer them to the grid as a demand balancing option as well as various other demand side measures. The cost of these measures would have been high but the general cost of renewable electricity is so low it's balanced in the amortized cost.

Going back to Drax train I would expect trains run to half or so from 2027.

 

[Bald Rick]

You are talking about what can happen internally within the UK.

I am talking about the political dynamite of a foreign government allowing the export of electricity to keep UK lights burning at the expense of power cuts in their own country.

Here’s some news - it does happen, and has done for a while.

One example: Norway put in place supply restrictions on some mornings last winter (and I bet it has done so this winter), yet still sent us 1.4GW. There were even news articles about it

But bear in mind that supply restrictions is not the same as “power cuts”; we are a long, long way from power cuts.