If HS2 phase 2a gets built, what high speed services could run?

[A S Leib]

An Oxford—Winslow-Trent Valley-Glasgow cross country service would be more compelling IMO.

Would there be enough capacity through Preston for that as well as HS2 and classic line London and Birmingham services?

 

[MatthewHutton]

It's not impossible to believe that when, for example, the 11:22 Paris to Nice skips Marseille (followed by an 11:38 service terminating at Marseille, with the city in general having a much less frequent high-speed service than what Curzon Street was intended to have).

Based on Paris-Nice the French wouldn’t have a stop on the outskirts of Birmingham but they would actually have half the London-Glasgow trains going into Curzon Street.

Also they would have direct TGV service to Coventry and Aylesbury main stations, probably Banbury and Leamington as well.

Would there be enough capacity through Preston for that as well as HS2 and classic line London and Birmingham services?

Fair question.

 

[Transilien]

Also they would have direct TGV service to Coventry and Aylesbury main stations, probably Banbury and Leamington as well.

Perhaps Coventry, but Banbury and especially Aylesbury are far too close to London for a high speed service.

Would there be enough capacity through Preston for that as well as HS2 and classic line London and Birmingham services?

What is the need for classic line London/Birmingham-Glasgow services? Wouldn't it make more sense for all classic trains to terminate at Crewe for onward connections to HS2 services in oder to not clog up the northern section of the WCML too much?

 

[MatthewHutton]

Perhaps Coventry, but Banbury and especially Aylesbury are far too close to London for a high speed service.

Amiens gets high speed service and that is about the same distance to Paris as London is to Banbury and it is closer than Leamington spa.

Wouldn't it make more sense for all classic trains to terminate at Crewe for onward connections to HS2 services in oder to not clog up the northern section of the WCML too much?

I think the smarter approach there would be to make the WCML north of Preston passenger trains only and to do what is required to move the freight elsewhere.

 

[Zomboid]

This is really not true at all.

If you serve Calvert you would be serving Oxford, Aylesbury, Bicester and MK which have a combined population of 700k. The French have built entire high speed lines (LGV Est) to serve fewer people.

Calvert is in the middle of nowhere. Yes, it has an intersection with EWR, but that's literally the only thing of note there. The A roads in the area are low capacity single carriageway affairs and aren't actually anywhere near Calvert.

MK and Oxford have and will continue to have direct trains to Birmingham International/ Interchange.

They've done things differently in France, but France isn't the same as the South East of England.

 

[MatthewHutton]

Calvert is in the middle of nowhere. Yes, it has an intersection with EWR, but that's literally the only thing of note there. The A roads in the area are low capacity single carriageway affairs and aren't actually anywhere near Calvert.

MK and Oxford have and will continue to have direct trains to Birmingham International/ Interchange.

They've done things differently in France, but France isn't the same as the South East of England.

Birmingham interchange has pretty weak service and is much further from Oxford and MK than in other countries. Especially given the short distance north of Birmingham than HS2 will ever run.

And all the roads to Aylesbury are single carriageway.

They've done things differently in France, but France isn't the same as the South East of England

They have followed the bones of the French approach in Germany, Taiwan, Japan, Italy etc

 

[A S Leib]

What is the need for classic line London/Birmingham-Glasgow services? Wouldn't it make more sense for all classic trains to terminate at Crewe for onward connections to HS2 services in oder to not clog up the northern section of the WCML too much?

I think how strongly direct trains over classic lines are needed depends on how good connections are at Crewe; if Watford, Milton Keynes and Rugby end up with two or three tph via the Trent Valley as far as Crewe, there shouldn't be as strong of a need (especially if Golborne not being built means there's no first-stop Preston / Warrington services).

I don't know what would happen to Blackpool services – definitely not served regularly by HS2, and probably not going to hourly – but if they've survived going via the West Midlands when changing at Preston or Crewe for Trent Valley services is quicker, I'd guess there'd be demand to keep them post-HS2. Chester / north Wales and Trent Valley stoppers should mean at least 2tph from (Watford,) Milton Keynes and Rugby to Crewe.

 

[MatthewHutton]

I don't know what would happen to Blackpool services – definitely not served regularly by HS2

I think Blackpool and Chester will get direct HS2 service in the end as levelling up.

 

[The Planner]

I think Blackpool and Chester will get direct HS2 service in the end as levelling up.

Chester won't unless its wired. Blackpool won't unless its decided to find any Preston terminator a home. You will need 2A for any such proposals.

Birmingham interchange has pretty weak service and is much further from Oxford and MK than in other countries. Especially given the short distance north of Birmingham than HS2 will ever run.

And all the roads to Aylesbury are single carriageway.

@Zomboid is correct though, if Aylesbury ever got a station the surrounding infrastructure would need upgrades. Apart from the A41 to Aston Clinton, the roads are awful. Calvert is another level entirely. If you included these costs in the overall provision of a station its not going to be cheap. Birmingham Interchange is the ideal parkway station based on

I think the smarter approach there would be to make the WCML north of Preston passenger trains only and to do what is required to move the freight elsewhere.

Massive infrastructure cost across from the West Mids via Derby, Doncaster and the east coast, or huge spend from Farington, Blackburn and along the S&C to allow W10 traffic.

 

[Transilien]

Amiens gets high speed service and that is about the same distance to Paris as London is to Banbury and it is closer than Leamington spa.

Amiens doesn't get TGV trains to Paris, the main service is a TER.

 

[MatthewHutton]

@Zomboid is correct though, if Aylesbury ever got a station the surrounding infrastructure would need upgrades. Apart from the A41 to Aston Clinton, the roads are awful. Calvert is another level entirely. If you included these costs in the overall provision of a station its not going to be cheap. Birmingham Interchange is the ideal parkway station based on

I would have thought a high quality two lane road between the A41 and the A421 was sufficient for a parkway station. I mean you really aren’t going to get that many people going by car there.

Haddenham and Thame Parkway only has a two lane road to it and there aren’t major issues.

 

[Zomboid]

I mean you really aren’t going to get that many people going by car there

Exactly.
So no need to build the station.

 

[MatthewHutton]

Amiens doesn't get TGV trains to Paris, the main service is a TER.

Ah I got confused with Arras which does.

That said if LGV Picardie is built then it would get service.

Additionally as it stands plenty of cities 50-100 miles out of a major centre do get high speed service in most countries.

Exactly.
So no need to build the station.

Even if you get 5 million trips a year by car (and maybe 10 million a year in total) we are still only talking 800 cars an hour in all directions which is well within the capacity of a high quality two lane road.

 

[Transilien]

Additionally as it stands plenty of cities 50-100 miles out of a major centre do get high speed service in most countries.

There are the Javelin services here, though HS2 probably won't have the capacity to handle these services.

 

[SynthD]

The quid-pro-quo you do is that they are quiet about planning issues in exchange for a stop.

What if they don't agree to play their part? Reform are against it, local Tory, Labour, Lib Dem and Greens have made issues in some areas.

I think the smarter approach there would be to make the WCML north of Preston passenger trains only and to do what is required to move the freight elsewhere.

The experts have a vastly different opinion (slows and freight on WCML, fasts on HS2). You are thinking up solutions for a different set of opinions about what is needed, it's hard to bring that back to HS2 and its cost.

 

[MatthewHutton]

What if they don't agree to play their part? Reform are against it, local Tory, Labour, Lib Dem and Greens have made issues in some areas.

I mean every other local government in every other country has “done their part”. Deals get done the whole time in Britain too.

The experts have a vastly different opinion (slows and freight on WCML, fasts on HS2). You are thinking up solutions for a different set of opinions about what is needed, it's hard to bring that back to HS2 and its cost

So they propose extending HS2 north of Preston?

There are the Javelin services here, though HS2 probably won't have the capacity to handle these services.

There is no good reason not to build a separate French style high speed line on the east using the existing excess capacity at Kings Cross.

 

[FMerrymon]

If phase 2a is built the services are more than likely going to be similar to what Euston origin intercity services look like now. The bigger and, perhaps, more interesting question is what the wcml up to Crewe would look like post phase 2a.

Network rail produced a study, however, the link no longer works and the document is too big to upload here.

 

[Zomboid]

There is no good reason not to build a separate French style high speed line on the east using the existing excess capacity at Kings Cross.

Having done the really hard and expensive bit (getting out of London and the south east) it would be madness to do it again when the first iteration was specified to handle the ECML as well.

The full HS2 scheme is the answer for relieving the ECML as well as the WCML, should that be needed.

 

[FlyingPotato]

Ah I got confused with Arras which does.

That said if LGV Picardie is built then it would get service.

Additionally as it stands plenty of cities 50-100 miles out of a major centre do get high speed service in most countries.


Even if you get 5 million trips a year by car (and maybe 10 million a year in total) we are still only talking 800 cars an hour in all directions which is well within the capacity of a high quality two lane road.

Arras is 109 Miles out of Paris (roughly)

Aylesbury is less than 50 from St Pancreas (Roughly)

They are not comparable


Tamworth is 111 miles out from St Pancreas (Roughly) so is comparable to Arras

 

[The Mercian]

If phase 2a is built the services are more than likely going to be similar to what Euston origin intercity services look like now. The bigger and, perhaps, more interesting question is what the wcml up to Crewe would look like post phase 2a.

Network rail produced a study, however, the link no longer works and the document is too big to upload here.

It’s a shame that’s no longer accessible as the capacity release either up the Trent Valley or through Birmingham could/would be transformational.

 

[PTR 444]

Amiens doesn't get TGV trains to Paris, the main service is a TER.

25 miles east of Amiens is the TGV Haute Picardie station, which offers direct TGV trains to Lille, CDG Airport and the South of France. Admittedly there are no direct trains from there to Central Paris though.

 

[The Planner]

I would have thought a high quality two lane road between the A41 and the A421 was sufficient for a parkway station. I mean you really aren’t going to get that many people going by car there.

Haddenham and Thame Parkway only has a two lane road to it and there aren’t major issues.

So you want a parkway station at Calvert which no one is going by car to? I can imagine the traffic to Haddenham on those back roads in the peaks is awful. No wonder there is a load of traffic calming in the village.

Even if you get 5 million trips a year by car (and maybe 10 million a year in total) we are still only talking 800 cars an hour in all directions which is well within the capacity of a high quality two lane road.

That assumes a linear spread, which it wouldn't be, there would be surges in the peaks. Still doesn't resolve the fact you are going to need infrastructure for a several thousand space car park at least (Birmingham Interchange is 4500 spaces) The locals hate HS2 as it is, tell them they are getting significant traffic as well on top? They will be having parties in the street.

 

[MatthewHutton]

Arras is 109 Miles out of Paris (roughly)

Aylesbury is less than 50 from St Pancreas (Roughly)

They are not comparable


Tamworth is 111 miles out from St Pancreas (Roughly) so is comparable to Arras

OK so compare to Erlangen or Bamberg or Limburg in Germany which get ICE service. Or Atami on the Tokaido Shinkansen. Or Toledo in Spain. Or Miaoli in Taiwan.

So you want a parkway station at Calvert which no one is going by car to? I can imagine the traffic to Haddenham on those back roads in the peaks is awful. No wonder there is a load of traffic calming in the village.

If the parkway station in a wealthy village was causing traffic issues then there would be an effort to improve the roads.

Just because there is traffic calming doesn’t mean much. People living in a rural village are still going to drive to places and a wealthy village has the money to pay for traffic calming.

That assumes a linear spread, which it wouldn't be, there would be surges in the peaks

Long distance traffic is pretty flat.

The locals hate HS2 as it is, tell them they are getting significant traffic as well on top? They will be having parties in the street.

No one is going to drive to Calvert who isn’t a “local”.

 

[FlyingPotato]

OK so compare to Erlangen or Bamberg or Limburg in Germany which get ICE service. Or Atami on the Tokaido Shinkansen. Or Toledo in Spain. Or Miaoli in Taiwan.

I don't know about them all but many in Germany consider Bamberg and Limberg to be a waste of money and a sort of White Elephant


However I do think that Calvert has some value as an interchange hub, but HS2 either didn't consider it or it wasn't worth it

 

[MatthewHutton]

I don't know about them all but many in Germany consider Bamberg and Limberg to be a waste of money and a sort of White Elephant

Many city dwellers may think all sorts of things. The fundamental reality is that the countries that built high speed rail for a reasonable price all decided that medium sized towns needed to have a station - even when they were only 100km from the capital.

The only exception to that is the French with the Seine river towns - but they got much better service on the classic line in exchange (hourly all day which is good for France) and the line runs well outside them anyway.

However I do think that Calvert has some value as an interchange hub, but HS2 either didn't consider it or it wasn't worth it

They got absolutely obsessed with speed above everything else. I have no idea why as Britain is small and the line was primarily built for capacity.

That’s why Birmingham interchange gets weak service and why Stoke doesn’t get a station either. And that’s why they did the whole 400km/h top speed thing which also raised costs on its own.

 

[FlyingPotato]

Many city dwellers may think all sorts of things. The fundamental reality is that the countries that built high speed rail for a reasonable price all decided that medium sized towns needed to have a station.

I think one of the problems was that it was done to appease German NIMBYs and they don't really have a good service - I believe 1p2h
So are underused as well

With Calvert from what I've heard it would harm capacity to stop there so not everything is about Speed

Birmingham Interchange had a reasonable service with the full service plan of 2b and Curzon Street
I think it had:
2ph Birmingham to London
1ph London to Glasgow / Edinburgh
1ph London to Leeds
1ph London to Manchester
So not a bad service

But I agree with Stoke as it gets absolutely shafted

 

[MatthewHutton]

With Calvert from what I've heard it would harm capacity to stop there so not everything is about Speed

I think if you stopped all services for 20 minutes of the hour and then ran everything through fast that the capacity hit would be small. The Tokaido Shinkansen runs an extremely intensive service with half hourly Kodama trains and the LGV Sud Est is intensive and has stops.

I think one of the problems was that it was done to appease German NIMBYs and they don't really have a good service - I believe 1p2h
So are underused as well

With Limburg South 750k to a million passengers a year for a station that cost negative money to build (because it avoided other mitigations for local people) isn’t awful by any means.

Birmingham Interchange had a reasonable service with the full service plan of 2b and Curzon Street
I think it had:
2ph Birmingham to London
1ph London to Glasgow / Edinburgh
1ph London to Leeds
1ph London to Manchester
So not a bad service

It’s not terrible but it’s worse than Nagoya or Taichung or Frankfurt Airport get for example though.

 

[growse]

If the parkway station in a wealthy village was causing traffic issues then there would be an effort to improve the roads

Who's going to pay for this?

The council has no money.

 

[MatthewHutton]

Who's going to pay for this?

The council has no money.

Parish/town councils have no restrictions on revenue raising.

 

[growse]

Parish/town councils have no restrictions on revenue raising.

I'm sure that'll be fabulously popular with the local residents who, as a demographic, are widely known for their enthusiasm in paying more tax.