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In the last few decades stations have only closed on the TfL network if there has been some sort of replacement, for example Silvertown and North Woolwich stations were 'replaced' by DLR stations.
The MRP is interesting but really you can see the writing on the wall from the Redfield & Wilton polling of the "Red Wall" seats. In 2019 these 30-40 seats got the Tory majority over the line to 359 seats (326 being the threshold for a majority).
In the 2019 election the Tories won these seats...
To put it into context, if you travelled from Stratford to Ealing Broadway in 2020 you'd most likely use the slow Central line. Now you'd use the Elizabeth line (which has higher costs) and save half the time but you're not paying a premium for it.
I don't think Sunak is hugely popular but they really tanked in the polls during the Liz Truss "era" and haven't recovered from that. So in a way the party leader from now to the election isn't a critical factor.