Pointless and stupid ORCATS raid in the latter case? They haven't got enough stock ordered as it is. BHI is a very logical terminus for them.
They didn't appear to have ordered enough units with ETCS, but the moment I read about this plan to extend to Coventry I thought 'Ah! that's how they intend to make it work'.
But it would mean that services coming from the Cambrian would return back to the Cambrian as well, instead of swapping with Holyhead services. Given only a limited fleet is getting fitted with ERTMS, as discussed on one of the other TfW threads, this could be very good news for the Cambrian, with its limited fleet no longer being sent to North Wales.
It all depends on how long TfW are planning their trains to be on the routes concerned, and whether they are happy to rely on splitting/joining ETCS-fitted units with non-fitted units. Going with 2-cars each for Holyhead, Aberystwyth and Pwllheli I estimate that the current basic pattern plus the hourly Aberystwyth service (assuming the full hourly service was extended through to BHI) requires 8 units for AYW-BHI hourly plus another 10 interworking between Pwllheli and Holyhead services. The total, 18 diagrams, leaves zero scope for strengthening given the limit of 21 ETCS-fitted units. The other options I have run estimates for are:
- Run with the same timetable, but make many services up to three units east of Shrewsbury using some units without ETCS (which would do Holyhead-Birmingham-Shrewsbury-Birmingham-Holyhead) so that the Pwllheli services need not interwork with the Holyheads (the units would do Pwllheli-Birmingham-Shrewsbury-Birmingham-Pwllheli). This increases the total number of units required but not running the ETCS-fitted sets through to Holyhead reduces the number of ETCS diagrams to 14 or 15
- Divert ALL Cambrian line services to Crewe, running an hourly Aberystwyth-Crewe service with a Pwllheli portion attached every two hours. Requires 11 or 12 ETCS diagrams, and makes Birmingham-Holyhead self contained.
- Following discovering this thread, extension to Coventry would make it 14 or 15 ETCS diagrams, which would be cut by a further two if the even-hour departures from Aberystwyth continue to terminate at Shrewsbury rather than continuing on to Birmingham as I assumed in my calculations (east of Shrewsbury I've assumed they would couple to a non-ETCS unit doing Birmingham-Holyhead)
The Bristol service is good - why are people so negative. The only shame is that is should be electric! Maybe one day.
There was actually a silver lining to the decision to cancel the wires to Swansea. Adding all the various additional services west of Cardiff that I and others would like to see would probably be more than the route (only double-track west of Cardiff) can take. The long-promised second Maesteg each hour would get it the way of the additional Swansea and Carmarthen workings. Clearly, there's a need for some additional capacity (most likely in the form of 4-track sections at stations, that fast trains can use to overtake stoppers) which would probably be easier to do before electrification.
Don't really mind which ToC, but IMO Cardiff - Temple Meads deserves more than 2 trains per hour, especially during the peaks.
If GWR aren't willing or able to provide that, then I don't see why TfW shouldn't be allowed to.
Whether Cardiff-Bristol needs an extra tph, (and FWIW, I don't think it does) a direct Bristol-Swansea is something I think that would be popular.
Network Rail's Welsh Route Study (published 2016) talked about a need for a 3rd Cardiff-Bristol path at some point, and possibly even 4tph in the longer term (that was the 2040s, but I'm not clear on how soon the need for 3tph was considered to be). My own view is that there should be 3tph, two of which should be TfW services calling at Newport, Severn Tunnel Junction, Patchway and Filton Abbey Wood as a minimum (the same stops the current Taunton service does I believe, which is only right and proper given that one of them would be replacing the Taunton service). The remaining GWR service would be the Portsmouth one, and if it's possible to make the two TfW services run at clockface 30min intervals I'd take at least one of the intermediate stops out of the Portsmouth. Losing the through running between Cardiff and Taunton means at least one of TfW's 2tph to Bristol (the one not going through to Swansea) could then be an EMU once Network Rail get around to the deferred sections of GWML wiring.
With regards to Bristol services, the DfT said no paths could be offered to the Welsh Government "until all outstanding upgrade work [was] completed in Bristol area including Bristol East Jn", which was forecast for 2024. This OAO application for December 2020 is aiming for something a lot sooner.
Is the DfT forecast for Bristol East Junction remodelling correct or is it happening sooner? In the short term, an additional 2tph (PAD-BRI via Bristol Parkway) doesn't seem like it would be enough to fill up the newly-doubled Filton Bank all by itself, so if there's a capacity issue it's probably the need for the remodelled junction. Also, will TfW have enough stock by December 2020 to do this? Until the new fleets start to appear they look like having barely enough units to get shot of the Pacers.
One key thing of note here is the addition of a service between Swansea and Cardiff that isn't stopping at some of the 'bigger little' stations. Sure, the Milford Haven / Carmarthen - Manchester trains only stopping at Neath, Port Talbot, Bridgend and Cardiff is fine; but what about Pyle, Pencoed, Llanharan and Pontyclun? You could stop the Swansea - Bristol at those stations and therefore allow the Maesteg trains to speed up (whilst also giving more intermediate stations better connections to Swansea). I'm sure the people in places like Pontyclun and Pyle would sooner get to Bristol than Gloucester!
I would keep the Maesteg trains 'all stations' myself; as part of the wider South East Wales metro it makes more sense to me that way. Ideally, I think there should be a clockface every 30mins service from Swansea calling at only Neath, Port Talbot, Bridgend and Cardiff (obviously half of those are the GWR London trains, the others being the Manchesters), plus one all-stops (which would go on to Ebbw Vale, Cheltenham or Hereford) and a semi-fast to Bristol. The semi-fast would call at Neath, Port Talbot, Pyle, Bridgend and Cardiff; only one more stop than the London/Manchester trains but it gives Pyle (which misses out on the Maestegs due to being west of Bridgend) a second train each hour.
