Coronavirus.

Skymonster · 2 Apr 2020

Bantamzen said:
Its not just in Italy, in France domestic violence has risen sharply in just one week, up by a third. And even here with us a little behind in terms of measures the strain is already starting to show (remembering that some people, myself included started working from home / distancing two weeks ago). I can't say exactly what, but yesterday I saw some rather worrying figures that point to future problems. As people get stuck in more, and as finances are stretched, & as many people may not receive any income for many more weeks, the relative calm that we see at the moment will be pushed more and more. It won't last.

Some, including the experts talk in terms of months of these kinds of measures. What they don't talk about are the social, mental, financial and even physical impacts this is already having on large populations. Put simply in our societies locking down for months is going to cause countless and as yet untold problems, problems that will dwarf the pandemic. Nobody in the decision making process, with perhaps one or two notable leaders, wants to risk jeopardising their contingency plans for the virus by talking down the crisis, for now they are running with the worst case scenario modelling. But behind closed doors they will already be drawing the lines in the sand, the line between mitigating for the virus & mitigating for all the other issues. They will know only too well that there is only so much people will take before social distancing becomes social unrest.

My prediction will be if some semblance of normality is not being restored by the end of this month, things will start to turn ugly.

Indeed. This is starting to have an epic impact on the economy and the future viability of the nation, which if not addressed will have a far bigger effect than an virus that is not fatal for the vast majority that contract it. Just today it is reported that Spain has seen a rise of almost 1m unemployed - jobs that will not come back when the lockdown is lifted. In the UK calls to institutions such as Shelter and the Samaritans are already up, and I suspect the numbers will increase dramatically as more and more people see their livelihoods ruined, along with civil unrest and disobedience. Our politicians have been guided by Professor Dimwitty and political correctness that entails not being seen to accept that some deaths are a necessary consequence of ensuring the vast majority in this country have a future to look forward to. While the government is acting primarily on the recommendations of the scientists, it is ignoring the social implications of the actions that are being taken. Indeed, we'd all like to believe that our medical science is sophisticated and can address these problems given enough time, but trying to alleviate all of this with isolation and economic shutdown and without considering the wider ramifications, is in my opinion madness. The longer this goes on, the more the pendulum will swing towards a much greater number of lives being ruined, and more deaths in the longer term, caused by the restrictions we are being put under rather than from the virus itself. My earnest belief is that the constraints need to be lifted sooner rather than later and the vast majority of the population need to be allowed to get on with their lives as normal while (a) taking sensible precautions such as hand washing and distancing where appropriate, (b) accepting that all risk cannot be eliminated and (c) still protecting those in particularly vulnerable categories. Going the way we are going now, I believe we are in the midst of the biggest disaster to impact the world since WW2 and time will show that it wasn't the virus itself that had the greatest impact.

RailUK Forums

Bantamzen · 2 Apr 2020

Skymonster said:
Indeed. This is starting to have an epic impact on the economy and the future viability of the nation, which if not addressed will have a far bigger effect than an virus that is not fatal for the vast majority that contract it. Just today it is reported that Spain has seen a rise of almost 1m unemployed - jobs that will not come back when the lockdown is lifted. In the UK calls to institutions such as Shelter and the Samaritans are already up, and I suspect the numbers will increase dramatically as more and more people see their livelihoods ruined, along with civil unrest and disobedience. Our politicians have been guided by Professor Dimwitty and political correctness that entails not being seen to accept that some deaths are a necessary consequence of ensuring the vast majority in this country have a future to look forward to. While the government is acting primarily on the recommendations of the scientists, it is ignoring the social implications of the actions that are being taken. Indeed, we'd all like to believe that our medical science is sophisticated and can address these problems given enough time, but trying to alleviate all of this with isolation and economic shutdown and without considering the wider ramifications, is in my opinion madness. The longer this goes on, the more the pendulum will swing towards a much greater number of lives being ruined, and more deaths in the longer term, caused by the restrictions we are being put under rather than from the virus itself. My earnest belief is that the constraints need to be lifted sooner rather than later and the vast majority of the population need to be allowed to get on with their lives as normal while (a) taking sensible precautions such as hand washing and distancing where appropriate, (b) accepting that all risk cannot be eliminated and (c) still protecting those in particularly vulnerable categories. Going the way we are going now, I believe we are in the midst of the biggest disaster to impact the world since WW2 and time will show that it wasn't the virus itself that had the greatest impact.

Sadly we have similar numbers in this country, with over 900,000 new claims to Universal Credit made in the last couple of weeks. That's potentially nearly a million people no longer paying income tax, and relying on state benefits. Now some of course might be furloughed workers hedging their bets whilst HMRC get set up, but nonetheless the real impact is only just starting to be felt. Boris was half right about one thing a few days ago, things are going to get worse, but they might not get better for a very, very long time.

hwl · 2 Apr 2020

Bantamzen said:
Sadly we have similar numbers in this country, with over 900,000 new claims to Universal Credit made in the last couple of weeks. That's potentially nearly a million people no longer paying income tax, and relying on state benefits. Now some of course might be furloughed workers hedging their bets whilst HMRC get set up, but nonetheless the real impact is only just starting to be felt. Boris was half right about one thing a few days ago, things are going to get worse, but they might not get better for a very, very long time.

6.6m new claimants last week in the States with 3.5m the week before.

Leo1961 · 2 Apr 2020

At least today's Government statement was delivered with gusto and apparent conviction.

Now we need to see if these latest promises are kept, or are mere platitudes as many previous statements have proven to be.

DarloRich · 2 Apr 2020

Leo1961 said:
At least today's Government statement was delivered with gusto and apparent conviction.

Now we need to see if these latest promises are kept, or are mere platitudes as many previous statements have proven to be.

Much better today. Clear. Information based. Explicit goal and dates. Waffle low and only a bit of spin. Also a bit of passion and drive.

Now can the reporters ask sensible questions.......

Spamcan81 · 2 Apr 2020

R G NOW. said:
Do not have the facilities to be able to do it sadly only a microwave. Anyway why did chip shops have to close, I do not see that they would be affected by the virus. As people do not crowed round in them. The one I went to had people standing outside, and then called them in one by one in a sensible manner until it shut. After all it supplies food like a supermarket, but fried meals.

I've decided to close my chippy simply because the cooking area is small and almost impossible to keep 2 metres between me and my co-worker. A larger shop would find it easier to maintain safe distance but that would depend on how many staff were on duty at any one time.

Spamcan81 · 2 Apr 2020

DarloRich said:
Much better today. Clear. Information based. Explicit goal and dates. Waffle low and only a bit of spin. Also a bit of passion and drive.

Now can the reporters ask sensible questions.......

Dream on. I'm sure their default setting is "stupid".

Jozhua · 2 Apr 2020

R G NOW. said:
I am led to believe that the lockdown is to be lifted on the 13th April for ever or up to 4 weeks. Because Boris Johnson said we will be in this for three weeks, so on the 13th I do not see why shops cannot reopen as long as people keep their distance as in supermarkets until the health department give the all clear. When the last item comes, then everything would reopen as if we never had the virus. It is costing business owners money and it needs lifting soon. I am fed up with ready meals, I want a cod and chips.

I feel you on wanting some cod and chips, I think we all want this to end ASAP, I wouldn't get your hopes up though...

Thomas31 said:
Boris said the lockdown will be reviewed every 3 weeks, frankly there’s no chance of it being lifted on the 13th. In fact, there might be even more stringent restrictions coming up

I hope not, but I think you may be right.

CaptainHaddock said:
Not necessarily. Given that the purpose of the lockdown is not to eradicate the virus but to ensure we don't all get it at the same time, I can see one way of controlling infections would be to lift the lockdown for a couple of weeks then reapply it for a couple of weeks then lift it again and so on.

This would also alleviate some of the stress and anxiety issues many people are having. If you know that you only have to ge through another week or two of isolation it gives you hope in a way that an indefinite lockdown doesn't.

The idea of 'flattening the curve' has fallen to the wayside now to, basically we need to stamp this out as we have no choice.

Letting enough people get infected for immunity, whilst not overwhelming healthcare would take many years. I agree we need to get better at predicting when this lockdown would end. Ultimately the solutions are the same.

-better testing

-better treatments

-better contact tracing systems (e.g an app which tracks peoples locations and who they come into contact with.)

-vaccine

Also seen a few people mention the economic effects of ongoing lockdown. Obviously this is frustrating and the medical types/politicians seem to be unaware of the ticking time bomb of public goodwill. I think this will crack off a bit in areas of Italy, and other countries that are enforcing strict lockdowns without providing sufficient information and assistance to those most effected. India for example is probably going to struggle with this.

That said, people won't spend money, or go out if there is a pile of bodies surrounding them. This disease's ability to kill should not be underestimated. Due to its rapid infectiousness, it can overwhelm healthcare systems and see so many sick come in, not only will covid patients be unable to access treatment, everyone will. 1% death rate could quickly spike to 2/3% if adequate care cannot be provided. The cost of not doing lockdown could be significantly worse.

The best that can be done is to mobilise millitary, scientists, healthcare workers and anyone else who can help, to try and improve testing and expand healthcare capacity.

DarloRich · 2 Apr 2020

Much better press conference today . More challenge. Better questioning style, more clarity, more detail and some hard targets. Hancock actually looked like he cared and gave a $hit which is pretty good for a Tory. Mad times we live in!

Bletchleyite · 2 Apr 2020

Jozhua said:
The idea of 'flattening the curve' has fallen to the wayside now to

No, it very much hasn't.

Thomas31 · 2 Apr 2020

The problem is we’ve closed down all our regional laboratories and centralised everything, to get to the point where we can’t even manufacture our own reagent is extremely worrying...

Darandio · 2 Apr 2020

They are just throwing numbers around. We had a 25,000 per day testing target for the middle of this month, it's becoming clear that won't be met so they throw a 100,000 figure out today instead, yet it takes a prompt from a journalist to get clarification that this figure includes antibody testing as well. Antibody testing that they cannot even trust yet, we've bought 17.5m kits now but we aren't really sure if they will work yet. Then the figure on thousands of ventilators in the pipeline over the coming weeks. How many weeks? Probably 10 weeks too late. Seeing them announce 30 for next week was laughable.

I've got zero confidence in anything they are saying regarding targets and throwing out huge numbers trying to impress, regardless of whether the delivery of the press conference is better.

Goldfish62 · 2 Apr 2020

Jozhua said:
I feel you on wanting some cod and chips, I think we all want this to end ASAP, I wouldn't get your hopes up though...

I hope not, but I think you may be right.

The idea of 'flattening the curve' has fallen to the wayside now to, basically we need to stamp this out as we have no choice.

Letting enough people get infected for immunity, whilst not overwhelming healthcare would take many years. I agree we need to get better at predicting when this lockdown would end. Ultimately the solutions are the same.

-better testing

-better treatments

-better contact tracing systems (e.g an app which tracks peoples locations and who they come into contact with.)

-vaccine

Also seen a few people mention the economic effects of ongoing lockdown. Obviously this is frustrating and the medical types/politicians seem to be unaware of the ticking time bomb of public goodwill. I think this will crack off a bit in areas of Italy, and other countries that are enforcing strict lockdowns without providing sufficient information and assistance to those most effected. India for example is probably going to struggle with this.

That said, people won't spend money, or go out if there is a pile of bodies surrounding them. This disease's ability to kill should not be underestimated. Due to its rapid infectiousness, it can overwhelm healthcare systems and see so many sick come in, not only will covid patients be unable to access treatment, everyone will. 1% death rate could quickly spike to 2/3% if adequate care cannot be provided. The cost of not doing lockdown could be significantly worse.

The best that can be done is to mobilise millitary, scientists, healthcare workers and anyone else who can help, to try and improve testing and expand healthcare capacity.

The scientific consensus is that it can't be eradicated. We're going to have to live with it long term and lockdown is only a short term measure to slow its spread.

Lockdown will become increasingly unenforceable as time goes on and the damage to mental health, society and the economy will start to become more serious than the virus itself. Lockdown until a vaccine can be found, assuming one can be found, isn't an option.

Jozhua · 2 Apr 2020

Goldfish62 said:
The scientific consensus is that it can't be eradicated. We're going to have to live with it long term and lockdown is only a short term measure to slow its spread.

Lockdown will become increasingly unenforceable as time goes on and the damage to mental health, society and the economy will start to become more serious than the virus itself. Lockdown until a vaccine can be found, assuming one can be found, isn't an option.

Well that's where we come down to, getting rid of as much virus as we can and massively scaling up testing to allow us to control outbreaks without needing to lockdown the entire country.

The antibodies test helps us to get a more accurate picture of the situation as a whole, but I doubt it will be of as much use as anti-gen, which allows us to quarantine/treat people while they can spread the virus.

Hopefully an antiviral treatment can be found in the meantime to help lower the death rate and requirement for ventilators. Whilst antivirals may be on borrowed time due to the instability of RNA viruses, hopefully it can tide us through till the vaccine comes about.

R G NOW. · 2 Apr 2020

Jozhua said:
Well that's where we come down to, getting rid of as much virus as we can and massively scaling up testing to allow us to control outbreaks without needing to lockdown the entire country.

The antibodies test helps us to get a more accurate picture of the situation as a whole, but I doubt it will be of as much use as anti-gen, which allows us to quarantine/treat people while they can spread the virus.

Hopefully an antiviral treatment can be found in the meantime to help lower the death rate and requirement for ventilators. Whilst antivirals may be on borrowed time due to the instability of RNA viruses, hopefully it can tide us through till the vaccine comes about.

Can I get a test? Will it be available at the health centres.

Jozhua · 2 Apr 2020

R G NOW. said:
Can I get a test? Will it be available at the health centres.

I believe antibody will be available for the general public in about a month or so. (This will tell you if you have had it, and if you are immune due to the presence of antibodies)

There isn't even enough anti-gen to test NHS staff coming into contact with COVID patients, so may be a while before the general public has access. Likely a couple months.

yorkie · 2 Apr 2020

Jozhua said:
Well that's where we come down to, getting rid of as much virus as we can and massively scaling up testing to allow us to control outbreaks without needing to lockdown the entire country.

Are you sure that's realistic? Are you saying it's not about flattening the curve? Do you have a source for this?

Goldfish62 said:
The scientific consensus is that it can't be eradicated. We're going to have to live with it long term and lockdown is only a short term measure to slow its spread.

Lockdown will become increasingly unenforceable as time goes on and the damage to mental health, society and the economy will start to become more serious than the virus itself. Lockdown until a vaccine can be found, assuming one can be found, isn't an option.

Agreed.

edwin_m · 2 Apr 2020

R G NOW. said:
In my above post I did say lift it forever or maybe 4 weeks at a time. I feel it would be a move to immunise people better.

I did a quick calculation on this somewhere on one of these threads, and if we just lifted the lockdown and went for herd immunity the number of cases would overwhelm the NHS and far more people would die than otherwise because people wouldn't get treatment. As far as I can tell the period to get herd immunity without doing that would be several years, and would require some sort of restrictions to continue over that time to keep the number of cases down.

Meerkat said:
So why are France, Italy, and Spain having similar, if not worse issues?

I was responding to a post criticizing the NHS by pointing out that the government made it what it is so any criticism comes back to them. The health service may be better in other countries but there are other factors influencing the spread. They might have been less prepared in other ways or simply got the infection sooner.

DarloRich · 2 Apr 2020

Goldfish62 said:
Lockdown will become increasingly unenforceable as time goes on and the damage to mental health, society and the economy will start to become more serious than the virus itself. Lockdown until a vaccine can be found, assuming one can be found, isn't an option.

yorkie said:
Agreed.

It will last as long as it needs to. We need to admit that. The other points you make are important but secondary to the main issue. We are just going to have to get through and fix the other problems later. I know you wont like that but it is the truth. Mental health care, at this precise moment, is secondary to the virus mitigation measures and if those measures have to last 3 or 6 moths so be it. We just have to deal with that.

Jozhua · 2 Apr 2020

yorkie said:
Are you sure that's realistic? Are you saying it's not about flattening the curve? Do you have a source for this?

My proposal doesn't seem to be out there much, but there have been a lot of articles addressing the lack of any solid "exit strategy".

Buzzfeed seems to be the best article I can find on this subject (sorry...)

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/boris-johnson-uk-lockdown-exit-strategy

Boris Johnson has tasked the government’s chief scientists with devising an “exit strategy” from the UK coronavirus lockdown — but ministers and experts have differing views on whether some restrictions should be lifted as soon as is feasibly possible or kept in place for months. Finding a workable balance is proving difficult, they warn.

DarloRich said:
It will last as long as it needs to. We need to admit that. The other points you make are important but secondary to the main issue. We are just going to have to get through and fix the other problems later. I know you wont like that but it is the truth. Mental health care, at this precise moment, is secondary to the virus mitigation measures and if those measures have to last 3 or 6 months so be it. We just have to deal with that.

"If those measures have to last 3 to 6 months", the (pretty likely) worst case scenario is 18 months of these measures. That's if a vaccine even comes that quickly. A lot of things have to go right in that case. If things are back to normal in 6 months, I'll be suprised.

We let it get this bad, now there seems to be no way through. Testing testing testing is okay, if the sheer number of tests you're having to do due to the massive amount of cases don't completely drain existing hardware, disposables and chemical supplies.

DarloRich · 2 Apr 2020

Jozhua said:
"If those measures have to last 3 to 6 months", the (pretty likely) worst case scenario is 18 months of these measures. That's if a vaccine even comes that quickly. A lot of things have to go right in that case. If things are back to normal in 6 months, I'll be suprised.

Many posters here seem very concerned with having to stay in their homes. That seems to be the key. I expect restrictions and changes to our daily lives to last quite a while but the kind of "lockdown" we have now not to last for the total period.

I think we need to prepare for a long period of time staying inside for the vast majority of our day, not withstanding the exercise allowances. I have come to terms with that and thought about how I will get through it. Many seem unable or unwilling to do that and I think they need to. Quickly.

farleigh · 2 Apr 2020

DarloRich said:
Many posters here seem very concerned with having to stay in their homes. That seems to be the key. I expect restrictions and changes to our daily lives to last quite a while but the kind of "lockdown" we have now not to last for the total period.

I think we need to prepare for a long period of time staying inside for the vast majority of our day, not withstanding the exercise allowances. I have come to terms with that and thought about how I will get through it. Many seem unable or unwilling to do that and I think they need to. Quickly.

I think you are taking this too seriously. Getting out and about for exercise is fine and staying inside for the majority of the day is - in my opinion - very unhealthy. Certainly not something I shall entertain in the short term let alone for months.

yorkie · 2 Apr 2020

farleigh said:
I think you are taking this too seriously. Getting out and about for exercise is fine and staying inside for the majority of the day is - in my opinion - very unhealthy. Certainly not something I shall entertain in the short term let alone for months.

We're fighting a brick wall; we've had this discussion. I'm not going to reply to the repeat of the conversation we had earlier though I will add that my walk today was 7 miles (knowing some people want me to walk less is a good motivator to walk more!). My answer to the recent posts made by @DarloRich remains the same as my previous answers; I am not going to change my mind. I have a lot of respect for @DarloRich but I am just going to agree to disagree and not go through the same arguments again, as my views have been made clear.

Greybeard33 · 2 Apr 2020

Goldfish62 said:
Lockdown will become increasingly unenforceable as time goes on and the damage to mental health, society and the economy will start to become more serious than the virus itself. Lockdown until a vaccine can be found, assuming one can be found, isn't an option.

So do you believe it is a viable option to allow this virus to rip unchecked through the population? If so, you should read about the devastating effect another coronavirus, namely the common cold, had when Europeans introduced it to isolated populations who had no "herd immunity". For example, it was a major factor in the collapse of the Inca civilisation.

If the NHS is overwhelmed and collapses, the UK death toll could well rise into the millions - not only untreated COVID victims, but people afflicted by other diseases and injuries that would not have been be fatal if they had received normal medical treatment. I do not think it is credible that the survivors would just carry on regardless with their normal economic activity while their family, friends and colleagues died untreated around them.

Despite many years of research, we still do not have a vaccine against the common cold.

farleigh · 2 Apr 2020

Greybeard33 said:
So do you believe it is a viable option to allow this virus to rip unchecked through the population? If so, you should read about the devastating effect another coronavirus, namely the common cold, had when Europeans introduced it to isolated populations who had no "herd immunity". For example, it was a major factor in the collapse of the Inca civilisation.

If the NHS is overwhelmed and collapses, the UK death toll could well rise into the millions - not only untreated COVID victims, but people afflicted by other diseases and injuries that would not have been be fatal if they had received normal medical treatment. I do not think it is credible that the survivors would just carry on regardless with their normal economic activity while their family, friends and colleagues died untreated around them.

Despite many years of research, we still do not have a vaccine against the common cold.

If the death toll reaches millions in the UK, and the NHS collapses I agree we would be in a game changing situation.

MDB1images · 2 Apr 2020

DarloRich said:
Many posters here seem very concerned with having to stay in their homes. That seems to be the key. I expect restrictions and changes to our daily lives to last quite a while but the kind of "lockdown" we have now not to last for the total period.

I think we need to prepare for a long period of time staying inside for the vast majority of our day, not withstanding the exercise allowances. I have come to terms with that and thought about how I will get through it. Many seem unable or unwilling to do that and I think they need to. Quickly.

Agree totally.
Needs everyone using common sense and showing resolve in this National emergency.

6Gman · 2 Apr 2020

Skymonster said:
Our politicians have been guided by Professor Dimwitty and political correctness

I was taking your comments seriously until I got to that section.

Whitty has an international reputation on public health issues.

There seems to be some sort of idea that the economic impact would be significantly reduced if the restrictions were relaxed. But would they? Would people really flock back to the pubs and shops against a background of hundreds (potentially thousands) of deaths daily?

Would people turn up to work in those circumstances?

I don't think so.

farleigh · 2 Apr 2020

6Gman said:
I was taking your comments seriously until I got to that section.

Whitty has an international reputation on public health issues.

There seems to be some sort of idea that the economic impact would be significantly reduced if the restrictions were relaxed. But would they? Would people really flock back to the pubs and shops against a background of hundreds (potentially thousands) of deaths daily?

Would people turn up to work in those circumstances?

I don't think so.

I would go to the pub

6Gman · 2 Apr 2020

DarloRich said:
Many posters here seem very concerned with having to stay in their homes. That seems to be the key. I expect restrictions and changes to our daily lives to last quite a while but the kind of "lockdown" we have now not to last for the total period.

I think we need to prepare for a long period of time staying inside for the vast majority of our day, not withstanding the exercise allowances. I have come to terms with that and thought about how I will get through it. Many seem unable or unwilling to do that and I think they need to. Quickly.

A very sound summary @DarloRich .

It's not really a "lockdown" in the true sense of the word.

You can go shopping - carefully

You can go for walks - carefully

You can help needy neighbours (I'm picking up medicines and shopping for elderly neighbours) - very carefully

What can't I do ? Well my trainspotting, bus spotting and trips out are rather curtailed but in the great scheme of things ...

OK I'm lucky that our family income hasn't fallen significantly and that I can work largely from home but in the bigger picture I really don't want to see this virus claiming a single more victim than necessary.

JonathanH · 2 Apr 2020

Greybeard33 said:
If the NHS is overwhelmed and collapses, the UK death toll could well rise into the millions - not only untreated COVID victims, but people afflicted by other diseases and injuries that would not have been be fatal if they had received normal medical treatment.

I think that the idea would be that people who get Covid-19 don't get treatment and potentially suffer and die at home while everyone who doesn't get ill goes on with their lives. No pressure on the NHS, just undertakers and mortuaries.

For what it is worth, I don't think that idea is practical at all. However, people have made the point that one of the reasons the NHS consumes so much funding is because we keep people alive who would have died in another era. Given the contagious nature of Coronavirus and the extreme risk healthcare professionals are running treating people, should we stop treating it? That would soon make people think twice about social distancing.

Coronavirus.

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