Well, let's look at the picture. It's 1968. Ten years ago, the M.o.T. rejected political demands to speed up the Modernisation Plan, meaning that there are still quite a few steam locos in service. The Victorian relics are all gone, as are the not-so-good Big 4 classes. However, most of the Standards (perhaps not the
Clans or
Duke of Gloucester) are still going, as are quite a few Big 4 classes, especially the ones built in large numbers that are reliable, efficient and powerful enough to cope with traffic (V2s, B1s, O1s [many more of those], V3s, Black 5s, 8Fs, Austerities, Panniers, GWR Perairies, later
Castles,
Modified Halls and so on). The more charismatic passenger classes are down to the very last few, mostly on neiche services such as the Settle-Carlisle (
Royal Scots) or the Forfar route (A4s). There is also a good supply of diesels and electrics, although about half the number of classes originally ordered were cancelled. Meaning no Baby Deltics, North British DEs, Claytons, Metrovicks and so on. Perhaps we're down to fewer than that, but built in greater numbers.
Then the National Traction Plan comes out, calling for greater standardisation. It proposes the phasing out of steam and diesel-hydraulic power, further electrification and a cull of smaller classes (I'm ignoriing shunters).
Here's what I expect we would end up with in 1978.
Type 1
- Class 10 (English Electric)
Type 2
- Class 20 (North British "Baby Warship") - to be withdrawn
- Class 21/22 (BR)
- Class 23/24 (BRCW) - to be withdrawn
- Class 25 (Brush)
Type 3
- Class 30 (BRCW "Crompton")
- Class 31 (Bayer-Peacock "Hymek") - to be withdrawn
- Class 32 (English Electric)
Type 4
- Class 40 (English Electric) - to be withdrawn (they only built 50, since they were underpowered compared with similar classes, instead they went on to the Class 45)
- Class 41 (BR Swindon "Warship") - to be withdrawn
- Class 42 (North British "Warship" [prototypes scrapped already]) - to be withdrawn
- Class 43 (BR "Peak") - all varients consolidated into one class, non-standard equipment removed (there are 500 of them by now)
- Class 44 (Brush "Duff") - still at evaluation against the Class 45
- Class 45 (English Electric "Hoover") either this or the Class 44 will be chosen for mass order (500 or so)
- Class 46 (BR Swindon Type 4 "Western") - to be withdrawn (there are 100 of them, but that doesn't make any difference)
Type 5
- Class 50 (English Electric "Deltic") - to be retained until the proposed "Advanced Passenger Train" replaces it (they are on the WCML as well as the ECML)
Electrics also standardise on relatively few classes, basically the same thing that happened in real life. However, the need for specailist freight classes is recognised, so some steam is retained, especailly the 9Fs. These work mostly coal and mineral traffic until the new Class 51s (Electroputere/Brush Type 5s) replace them in the late 70s. APT fails to materialise, but the Deltics keep going on the Western Region and ECML until HSTs replace them, the WCML probably doesn't suit them that well, so I can see them being cascaded once the wires reach Glasgow.
Beyond 1978, history resumes its natural course, but the railways are a little more efficient. This might save some lines, hopefully including the Great Central.