£15bn Improvements around UK

[Technologist]

So money is being committed to the construction of schemes without any business case process? I find that extremely surprising.

The money isn't real until the scheme is signed off, I think in practice these announcements will release a small amount of money to design said system. There is also a signal shift that business case will be more advisory than a gate keeper, if you need everything to be justified by existing evidence then you can't really build anything new and infrastructure will end up going to where it already exists.

Every time we get a new government, we are told that capital spending is “different” and politicians get to announce lots of grand new projects, which in the fullness of time turn to dust and are not delivered. Am I being cynical? Yes. Is the cynicism justified? I think so. HS2, Northern Powerhouse Rail, electrification plans after Manchester-Liverpool - yes, some of them are limping towards completion now after more than ten years, but Oxford, Bristol, and bi-mode trains are a convenient excuse rather than a solution.

I think Bi-Mode trains are actually a good bet given the general direction of technology. Batteries are getting more energy dense very slowly but existing energy densities are actually fine if you design a vehicle around them. Rail advocates are always talking about how efficient trains are and then saying batteries aren't energy dense enough for trains despite being able to power inefficient cars to useful range.

What has happened with batteries is that battery lifetimes have increased by multiples in the last 10 years, the cost has fallen by about a factor 4 and the charge rate has tripled. The net result is that the most advanced batteries now charge as fast as a car can fill up and last years in rail revenue service. I the near term the bi-mode trains are going to end up swapping their diesels for batteries and being charged by OHLE and chargers in stations. In the longer terms I expect we will actually see OHLE get pulled down and replaced by fast chargers in stations as it removes a massive maintenance cost and makes the lines more resilient.

Batteries are currently the worst they will ever be and are only going to get cheaper, longer lived, faster charging and more energy dense.

Funnily enough, the press release doesn't go into that level of detail.

As far as I can tell it's preview of a speech happening later. I would assume a more detailed plan will be released after the speech.

 

[anthony263]

Wales has done the south wales metro which is pretty big.

And there are big running cost subsidies in general.

Yes but a few improvements in wales cant be done by welsh government as the infrastructure is under control of of the UK government eg Cardiff ti Swansea electrification

 

[InTheEastMids]

I suspect any HS2 extension or further rail electrification will be announced separately (if they happen) Governments like to spread good news to be able to give positive PR on multiple dates.

Based on all the enabling works along the MML, it would now seem incredibly surprising for this announcement not to include a re-commitment to MMLE and formal sign off of main works between Wigston and Sheet Stores Junctions.

I suppose HS2 has a lot of political baggage as well,

I could imagine something about Euston, as Govt has committed to building it, and Crown Estate made a substantial investment in the site. However, I'm not sure recommitting to Phase 2 is a sensible thing to do, until Ph1 is back under control, especially...

there will further 'national rail' announcements in the spending review next Weds - including the new L'pool & M'cr line.

...since this announcement may provide some of Ph2 via the back door, and from a phasing perspective whether the supply chain has the capacity to deliver Ph2a construction alongside Liv-Man (although I do guess that Ph2a is closer to be shovel-ready than Liv-Man).

Let's hope the changes to Green Book reduce the extent to which the benefits of investment appear to be systematically underestimated, and also I hope for supply-side reform to reduce costs (such as alliance/partnership models, and spending more time in the design phase to de-risk the main works).

 

[MatthewHutton]

Batteries are currently the worst they will ever be and are only going to get cheaper, longer lived, faster charging and more energy dense.

I mean maybe, costs might continue to drop but they might not. Are wind turbines still getting cheaper?

You do also have issues that you are doing a lot more charge cycles with a train than a car. If a car has a 200 mile range then 200k miles is only 1000 charge cycles which an iPad can do. And 200k miles is good for an ICE car.

A train is going to do multiple charge cycles a day.

Yes but a few improvements in wales cant be done by welsh government as the infrastructure is under control of of the UK government eg Cardiff ti Swansea electrification

Fair point.

 

[Djgr]

So money is being committed to the construction of schemes without any business case process? I find that extremely surprising.

On the other hand, a key issue in the UK is the amount of time and resource spent on paperwork as opposed to actually physically doing anything (e.g., Portishead).

 

[JonathanH]

I wonder if London will get the greenlight for long term funding because that's crucial in order to get renewals like the Bakerloo Line and the trams.

If money is tight, perhaps London just has to wait its turn in the queue for any investment.

 

[mangad]

If money is tight, perhaps London just has to wait its turn in the queue for any investment.

Trouble is the Bakerloo line trains are now the oldest in Britain. They're 52 years old, used daily on the busiest metro system in the UK. They can't go on for ever. Their replacement is more keeping the lights on than investment.

 

[Thirteen]

If money is tight, perhaps London just has to wait its turn in the queue for any investment.

I'm not sure that's the right approach because there is an urgent need to replace aging rolling stock and infrastructure, this isn't a nice to have situation.

 

[PGAT]

If money is tight, perhaps London just has to wait its turn in the queue for any investment.

You can’t just sweep this under the rug, money will become tighter if you ignore this issue

 

[Class15]

The press release specifically states its money for "City Regions", which are only in England.

Quick question - is London considered one of these and has it just been given zero investment (which would be a disaster) in this or does it not count?

I'm not sure that's the right approach because there is an urgent need to replace aging rolling stock and infrastructure, this isn't a nice to have situation.

Exactly, with the 1972 stock not being replaced anytime soon and the Bakerloo line extension, Crossrail 2 and West London Orbital waiting on hold it’s not ideal.

And let’s not even get started on the Metropolitan line extension which they actually started before abandoning it.

 

[Thirteen]

Quick question - is London considered one of these and has it just been given zero investment (which would be a disaster) in this or does it not count?

London is treated as its own thing as transport is devolved.

 

[Class15]

London is treated as its own thing as transport is devolved.

Thank you - so basically - even if London was getting investment, it wouldn’t be on the plan today?

 

[MatthewHutton]

Why can’t London pay for new Bakerloo trains with its own local taxes?

 

[InTheEastMids]

You do also have issues that you are doing a lot more charge cycles with a train than a car. If a car has a 200 mile range then 200k miles is only 1000 charge cycles which an iPad can do. And 200k miles is good for an ICE car.

A train is going to do multiple charge cycles a day.

Battery life can be managed - firstly by avoiding overcharging and secondly by switching to more long-lived chemistries such as lithium iron phosphate.
Thirdly, battery packs can be replaced. It's hard to do in cars because they have to be so heavily packaged, but trains ought to be different as you can either load them onto rafts under the carriage (which I think is how the 802 trial worked) or just rack them and stack them in a thrash pod like the Stadler units. I don't have images of how this is done on a train, but here's a picture of the inside of a utility battery system. It is straightforward to swap individual packs (if necessary, individual battery cells within the pack can be replaced as an offline excercise).

On the other hand, a key issue in the UK is the amount of time and resource spent on paperwork as opposed to actually physically doing anything (e.g., Portishead).

Not disagreeing that planning is excessively onerous in many cases, but one of the lessons from HS2 and other large-scale infrastructure projects is that delivery is quicker, cheaper and less risky if more time is spent in design/development phases.

 

[Thirteen]

Why can’t London pay for new Bakerloo trains with its own local taxes?

TfL doesn't have the money to fully fund it.

 

[The exile]

Battery life can be managed - firstly by avoiding overcharging and secondly by switching to more long-lived chemistries such as lithium iron phosphate.
Thirdly, battery packs can be replaced. It's hard to do in cars because they have to be so heavily packaged, but trains ought to be different as you can either load them onto rafts under the carriage (which I think is how the 802 trial worked) or just rack them and stack them in a thrash pod like the Stadler units. I don't have images of how this is done on a train, but here's a picture of the inside of a utility battery system. It is straightforward to swap individual packs (if necessary, individual battery cells within the pack can be replaced as an offline excercise).

View attachment 181346


Not disagreeing that planning is excessively onerous in many cases, but one of the lessons from HS2 and other large-scale infrastructure projects is that delivery is quicker, cheaper and less risky if more time is spent in design/development phases.

Design and development is one thing and jumping through the same hoops over and over again for different bodies or because there has been a slight shift in either goalposts or plans is another.

 

[MatthewHutton]

TfL doesn't have the money to fully fund it.

Well maybe then London needs to raise its taxes.

London has had a LOT of investment in infrastructure spending since 1945 compared to the rest of the country.

EDIT: I mean yes London has ~60% of the rail ridership but it has also had a lot more than 60% of the investment.

Design and development is one thing and jumping through the same hoops over and over again for different bodies or because there has been a slight shift in either goalposts or plans is another.

That is very true.

 

[PGAT]

Well maybe then London needs to raise its taxes.

London has had a LOT of investment in infrastructure spending since 1945 compared to the rest of the country.


That is very true.

It’s not reasonable to expect TfL to be fully self sufficient. Only a small slither of their cash comes from the government, and it’s pathetic in comparison to many other countries in the world and not just Western Europe

 

[vuzzeho]

Well maybe then London needs to raise its taxes.

London has had a LOT of investment in infrastructure spending since 1945 compared to the rest of the country.

EDIT: I mean yes London has ~60% of the rail ridership but it has also had a lot more than 60% of the investment.


That is very true.

Taxes would need to be raised by an incredible amount to pay for all of this. And services in London aren't just used by Londoners, but by many tourists from across the country and around the world.

On top of that... if London should have to pay for itself (not feasible) then why not other places around the country? Why not raise taxes for them to buy new trains?

 

[anthony263]

Trouble is the Bakerloo line trains are now the oldest in Britain. They're 52 years old, used daily on the busiest metro system in the UK. They can't go on for ever. Their replacement is more keeping the lights on than investment.

I think london will see an order placed to replace the 1972 stock but I could see a bare minimum order and wouldn't be surprised to seenthe bakerloo cut back to stonebridge park. I can't see the Lewisham extension get the greenlight right now personally I'd put money on the tramlink extension to sutton but that's it

 

[MatthewHutton]

Taxes would need to be raised by an incredible amount to pay for all of this. And services in London aren't just used by Londoners, but by many tourists from across the country and around the world.

On top of that... if London should have to pay for itself (not feasible) then why not other places around the country? Why not raise taxes for them to buy new trains?

Other areas of the country need levelling up. And actually its only fair given the massive investments London has seen.

And taxes wouldn’t need to go up much on London to pay for some new tube trains. They aren’t that expensive and there are a lot of Londoners.

It’s not reasonable to expect TfL to be fully self sufficient. Only a small slither of their cash comes from the government, and it’s pathetic in comparison to many other countries in the world and not just Western Europe

They could get more money from council tax for example.

 

[The exile]

Taxes would need to be raised by an incredible amount to pay for all of this. And services in London aren't just used by Londoners, but by many tourists from across the country and around the world.

On top of that... if London should have to pay for itself (not feasible) then why not other places around the country? Why not raise taxes for them to buy new trains?

Wonder how much a 50p/night visitor tax would raise over the whole of the Greater London area….

 

[MatthewHutton]

Wonder how much a 50p/night visitor tax would raise over the whole of the Greater London area….

I think a London tourist tax would be an excellent idea. Lots of places have them. Certainly it could be higher than 50p/night though - could be several pounds a night I think.

Maybe £7.50/night but you get free public transport?

 

[PGAT]

Or maybe just adequately fund our transport bodies without defaulting to shafting the taxpayer every single time? The money is out there

 

[brad465]

If money is tight, perhaps London just has to wait its turn in the queue for any investment.

Trouble is the Bakerloo line trains are now the oldest in Britain. They're 52 years old, used daily on the busiest metro system in the UK. They can't go on for ever. Their replacement is more keeping the lights on than investment.

The Bakerloo line stock replacement, if a follow-on from the Piccadilly line fleet, would be built in Goole, so there would be a benefit to the north in securing long-term jobs. This is why I think the Bakerloo line fleet replacement is a no-brainer to green light: get the oldest trains off the network, which should see a return in higher capacity and lower maintenance costs, while investing in another part of the UK at the same time.

 

[Thirteen]

I think london will see an order placed to replace the 1972 stock but I could see a bare minimum order and wouldn't be surprised to seenthe bakerloo cut back to stonebridge park. I can't see the Lewisham extension get the greenlight right now personally I'd put money on the tramlink extension to sutton but that's it

The Sutton Link has already been shelved by TfL. I think the focus is on the Bakerloo and DLR extensions along with new rolling stock.

The Bakerloo line stock replacement, if a follow-on from the Piccadilly line fleet, would be built in Goole, so there would be a benefit to the north in securing long-term jobs. This is why I think the Bakerloo line fleet replacement is a no-brainer to green light: get the oldest trains off the network, which should see a return in higher capacity and lower maintenance costs, while investing in another part of the UK at the same time.

I think the Bakerloo 2024 stock will basically be the same as the Piccadilly with minor differences.

The Central Line has CLIP so probably won't need to be replaced until the mid to late 2030s and probably be done as a single order along with the Northern, Jubilee and W&C much like the SSL stock replacement.

 

[Technologist]

I mean maybe, costs might continue to drop but they might not. Are wind turbines still getting cheaper?

You do also have issues that you are doing a lot more charge cycles with a train than a car. If a car has a 200 mile range then 200k miles is only 1000 charge cycles which an iPad can do. And 200k miles is good for an ICE car.

A train is going to do multiple charge cycles a day.

Batteries will probably hold cost for the next 1-2 years as currently the Chinese have over capacity and nobody is making money. Once that finishes then we are likely to continue the Wrights Law reduction in costs as the volumes produced continue to ramp up as we convert all automotive to BEV in the next 20 years. We have already seen a shift to LFP batteries from NMC/NCA types which kept us going down the cost curve, we are currently in the process of adding LMFP and sodium types to keep the costs falling. It is also notable that as far as the user costs go we are likely to see some of that continued fall being due to increased specialisation, as you point out cars cars (even self driving ones) are likely to see their batteries out live them, in which case life will be traded for cost, for power applications we already see pathways to 40 and 50,000 full discharge cycle lifetimes.

As it stands batteries are already cheap enough, a 5 car IET would need about 2000Kwh of storage to go about 150 miles off wire in an express service. That would currently set you back less than $200,000 at automotive costs, which is an accounting error on a £10-15m trainset. LFP batteries are currently doing about 10,000 cycles before hitting 85% capacity, however those are generally full cycles and a train partially discharging would get a lot more of those cycles. Even if we only get 20,000 partial cycles and train does 8 of those a day that would still be 7 years before the batteries need changing, this would result in a per passenger trip cost of fractions of a penny.

To put these numbers into perspective lets say we have a battery that does only 1000 cycles and we assume about 1 cycle per average passenger fare. If we have 250 seats on the train and a 50% occupancy then the cost of those batteries is only $1.6 per ticket. Batteries are now very cheap!

The key point is that charging speeds have gone up massively to the point where pretty much every route in the UK could be covered just be fast charging at some of the stations. This is why I think we will go to partial electrification to allow BEMUs to operate then over time we will actually get rid of the OHLE.

 

[MPW]

I wonder if London will get the greenlight for long term funding because that's crucial in order to get renewals like the Bakerloo Line and the trams.

I can certainly see why they would want to announce these investments first before saying anything about london!

 

[Howardh]

Some further details in the paper - nothing much about trains other than a "tram/train" for the north and east of the region. What puzzles/intrigues me isn't covered in this, but I'm sure I read that the Manchester - Liverpool rail connection will include a tunnel somewhere - if that's right surely that will be below the city centre to avoid the Castlefield Corridor? If that happens and they want a new bus station, then now's the chance to demolish Piccadilly Gardens and build a proper bus/rail/tram interchange right there. If big enough they could demolish Shudehill and maybe make that a small garden space?

1,000 new buses, three new tram stops, and a huge Metrolink announcement

'A gamechanging moment' for Greater Manchester's Bee Network

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

New tram stops, 1,000 more electric buses, tram-trains, new interchanges and a cash commitment to a long-awaited Metrolink extension to Stockport. The Bee Network revolution is set to continue.

It comes as Greater Manchester secures a bumper transport deal worth £2.5bn over the next seven years.

The government announcement paves the way for Metrolink trams to FINALLY run to Stockport town centre after years of campaigning, as well the purchasing of 1,000 new electric Bee Network buses.

It also includes three stops on existing tram lines - in Manchester, Bury and Oldham It is understood they will be Sandhills in north Manchester; Elton Reservoir in Bury; and Cop Road in Oldham.

Plans for new city centre and Leigh interchanges are also being worked up. And tram-trains will soon be on their way to parts of the region, travelling along Metrolink lines AND and rail tracks.

​

 

[Meole]

Reform have previously indicated they will cancel all such projects if elected, current projections suggest this is likely.