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“Autistic maths” which wouldn’t survive contact with an actual autistic person

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Egg Centric

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I was amused to see this photo in Waterloo an hour ago. For those using screenreaders, the caption says (decorated with the greatness of Network Rail and South Western Railway) that 700 000 people in the UK have been diagnosed with autism… and 750 million people worldwide.

Anyone with a vague understanding of both maths and geography would, if they though about it, see that these figures cannot both be true and the 750 million one is especially suspect.

But it especially amuses me that this is about autism. Almost any high functioning autistic will pick up on this instantly. And then be reminded the normie world still don’t geddit…

The lesson here is anyone in marketing or PR needs to be supervised when dealing with actual numbers.
 
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AlterEgo

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750 million is almost certainly nonsense yes, but why can’t they both be true?

Why would any autistic person pick up on the maths immediately?
 

Bayum

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750 million is almost certainly nonsense yes, but why can’t they both be true?

Why would any autistic person pick up on the maths immediately?
At the rate of 1/100, 750 million would be about right. The CDC have also quoted this number. I’m not sure why 700,000 can’t be diagnosed in the UK though.

Unless it’s a misread of 700,000 as 7 million.
 

brad465

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I presume it's more likely to be 75 million worldwide, as a rate of 1 in 100 would multiply up to 7.5 billion, which is just below the current global population estimate.
 

Mcr Warrior

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I presume it's more likely to be 75 million worldwide, as a rate of 1 in 100 would multiply up to 7.5 billion, which is just below the current global population estimate.
Indeed.

If 1% (or 1 in a 100 if you prefer) of the world's population has autism spectrum disorder, possibly assuming here a wide range of symptoms and levels of severity, then 1% of the world population figure of some 7.5 billion is 75 million, and similarly 1% of the estimated UK population of c. 70 million is a figure of 700,000.

(The other possible explanation, that the numbers on the Network Rail display are correct, doesn't make all that much sense, as it would require that the rate of autism spectrum disorder diagnosis applicable to the rest of the world is ten times that of the U.K.)
 

hexagon789

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I presume it's more likely to be 75 million worldwide, as a rate of 1 in 100 would multiply up to 7.5 billion, which is just below the current global population estimate.
Yes it's a typo, the figure is generally held to be about 1% of the world's population - so ~75 million.
 

AlterEgo

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At the rate of 1/100, 750 million would be about right. The CDC have also quoted this number. I’m not sure why 700,000 can’t be diagnosed in the UK though.

Unless it’s a misread of 700,000 as 7 million.
What makes us sure that both:

1) autism presents equally clinically in all populations, and

2) that *diagnosis* (which the sign says itself - not incidence, diagnosis) is equal among race, geography, access to healthcare, and class? I don’t for a second believe this.
 

brad465

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What makes us sure that both:

1) autism presents equally clinically in all populations, and

2) that *diagnosis* (which the sign says itself - not incidence, diagnosis) is equal among race, geography, access to healthcare, and class? I don’t for a second believe this.
Diagnosis is far more common among males than females, however this does not necessarily mean prevalence is distributed this way; females are more likely to not realise they have it or show symptoms that allows others to notice.
 

D821

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I was amused to see this photo in Waterloo an hour ago. For those using screenreaders, the caption says (decorated with the greatness of Network Rail and South Western Railway) that 700 000 people in the UK have been diagnosed with autism… and 750 million people worldwide.

Anyone with a vague understanding of both maths and geography would, if they though about it, see that these figures cannot both be true and the 750 million one is especially suspect.

But it especially amuses me that this is about autism. Almost any high functioning autistic will pick up on this instantly. And then be reminded the normie world still don’t geddit…

The lesson here is anyone in marketing or PR needs to be supervised when dealing with actual numbers.
Why do you assume that someone with autism would pick up on this instantly? I worked with a lady with autism who was quite annoyed at times that people assumed that as she was autistic that she would be a maths genius.
 

D1537

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What makes us sure that both:

1) autism presents equally clinically in all populations, and

2) that *diagnosis* (which the sign says itself - not incidence, diagnosis) is equal among race, geography, access to healthcare, and class? I don’t for a second believe this.

The latest studies do seem to suggest that ASD is not dependent on race or socioeconomic background (it is, however, more prevalent in males).

But for your second point, absolutely. Clearly it isn't going to be diagnosed as often where healthcare is more lacking, where resources are going to be concentrated on basic physical care. And as regards race, even in a developed country like the UK, diagnosis varies wildly across racial groups, for reasons which include access to specialists, language and social stigma.

Why do you assume that someone with autism would pick up on this instantly? I worked with a lady with autism who was quite annoyed at times that people assumed that as she was autistic that she would be a maths genius.
Yes, this is a common myth. Whilst there is *some* evidence to suggest that *some* types of autism may have a link to maths skills, the percentage of autistic people who are naturally highly skilled in maths is, like the general population, quite small.
 

507020

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But it especially amuses me that this is about autism. Almost any high functioning autistic will pick up on this instantly. And then be reminded the normie world still don’t geddit…
No one should ever make comments about “Any/everyone with autism” because it is this kind of wild generalisation about them which makes the world so difficult to navigate for people with autism. You are assuming that the statistics are obviously going to come across as instantly wrong to almost every high functioning autistic person. I don’t believe that’s true at all and I didn’t realise it instantly, but I think it is a highly interesting set of statistics worthy of discussion.
What makes us sure that both:

1) autism presents equally clinically in all populations, and

2) that *diagnosis* (which the sign says itself - not incidence, diagnosis) is equal among race, geography, access to healthcare, and class? I don’t for a second believe this.
What should obvious to everyone, regardless of them being on the autistic spectrum or not, after no more than a few moments with a calculator is that the UK figure suggests a rate of diagnosis of 1% of the population, while the worldwide figure suggests a rate of 10%.

Now there is something going on here because you would expect the worldwide rate of diagnoses (with the world including several third world countries with no access to healthcare, including most notably the United States of America) to be lower than that of the United Kingdom with its National Health Service, although beyond that I believe the most significant factors here are age and gender.
Diagnosis is far more common among males than females, however this does not necessarily mean prevalence is distributed this way; females are more likely to not realise they have it or show symptoms that allows others to notice.
For a long time, Autism, like colourblindness, was dismissed as a “male condition” which females were incapable of possessing. This is of course nonsense and incidence is similar between males and females, but they display different “symptoms” (I would have liked to have avoided the use of the word symptoms because it is not really fitting. Autism really isn’t an illness and shouldn’t be treated like one) although rates of diagnosis remain higher. Now rates of diagnoses within males has only been at a reasonable level since about the 1990s, which is why it is rare to come across older people with Autism. The figure I have heard and accept for the proportion of people with autism today is 1 in 30, or 3.33%, meaning on average there is someone with autism in every school class of 30 pupils (and despite this very very few teachers have received any training at all on how to correctly handle people with autism, leading many of them to have absolutely dreadful experiences with the education system and develop mental health problems into adolescence, rather than them being treated as the asset to society that they can be, particularly in industries such as the railway, which is a very sad and unfortunate state of affairs for us to be in and for which I attribute the majority of the blame to teachers) which is much higher than the figure of 1%, because of course there will be people now in their 80s or 90s, including women, who have lived with autism all their lives but never received a formal diagnosis.
Why do you assume that someone with autism would pick up on this instantly? I worked with a lady with autism who was quite annoyed at times that people assumed that as she was autistic that she would be a maths genius.
I am glad she expressed her annoyance that people with autism are forced to deal with such stereotypes. Another damaging one is the assumption that autistic people cannot set foot in airports due to them being in some way too busy, despite there being no attention given to the fact that autistic people may be highly interested in planes, their numbering, the physics behind how they fly, the luggage conveyor belt system within the airport, items available in duty free or any other factors which prevent it from being an unbearable experience. The reality is it depends as much on the person as it does with anyone else.

The recent BBC documentary with Paddy McGuinness about his children and their experiences living with autism served as a good insight into some of the issues faced both by people growing up with autism and their parents. Of particular interest was that his daughter is able to repeat bits of sentences she has overheard such as the question “Can I have some biscuits?” when she is not able to sting a sentence together to convey how she is feeling, to which Paddy is almost certain to reply “Yes of course you can have some biscuits” without realising that simply feeding her biscuits does nothing to help her in the long term with the difficulties faced by people with autism and the documentary follows him and his wife after their realisation of this. The same goes for the two documentaries about Katie Price and Harvey, who is frequently heard expressing his interest in trains such as Gatwick Express and Thameslink.
The latest studies do seem to suggest that ASD is not dependent on race or socioeconomic background (it is, however, more prevalent in males).

But for your second point, absolutely. Clearly it isn't going to be diagnosed as often where healthcare is more lacking, where resources are going to be concentrated on basic physical care. And as regards race, even in a developed country like the UK, diagnosis varies wildly across racial groups, for reasons which include access to specialists, language and social stigma.

Yes, this is a common myth. Whilst there is *some* evidence to suggest that *some* types of autism may have a link to maths skills, the percentage of autistic people who are naturally highly skilled in maths is, like the general population, quite small.
Is it *actually* more prevalent in males? I don’t believe that this is known either way even with the pinnacle of modern scientific knowledge. Social stigma is certainly the biggest problem for people with autism, with people constantly being unhelpful due to them following assumptions and stereotypes of the same kind as are exhibited in racist behaviours. I have encountered people who are certainly autistic (with one being able to list all 1990s British boxing world champions in chronological order for example) but have absolutely no intention of seeking a formal diagnosis only because this will then subject them to the social stigma which they have so far escaped in life. I do believe the proportion of autistic people who are highly skilled in maths is higher than in the general population, but I for example am not highly skilled in instant mental arithmetic, so this is not necessarily what that means.
 

43066

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Almost any high functioning autistic will pick up on this instantly

Only if you make the (lazy) assumption that almost every high functioning autistic is gifted at maths which, as noted above, is nothing more than a stereotype.
 

yorkie

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The figure I have heard and accept for the proportion of people with autism today is 1 in 30, or 3.33%, meaning on average there is someone with autism in every school class of 30 pupils
Based purely on anecdotal evidence, assuming you are taking a broad definition of ASD, I would agree that 1 in 30 seems much more likely than 1 in 100.
Is it *actually* more prevalent in males?
I think so, but perhaps not as much as some people think. I do know a few girls who are on the spectrum and of those who are, they seem to be more likely to be into things like (for example) football than average among girls generally.
...no intention of seeking a formal diagnosis only because this will then subject them to the social stigma....
I think among kids today they are more likely to want a diagnosis than not, and other kids seem to be generally quite accepting of other students with a diagnosis and that goes for all sorts of things such as ADHD, tourettes, anger management issues, dyslexia and more...

If anything it is more likely to be parents who are sometimes against obtaining a diagnosis.

I have known kids tell me, or ask me if I am aware, that they have ADHD for example; I think that's because they want me to know that if they behave in a certain way that there is a reason for it.
.... very very few teachers have received any training at all on how to correctly handle people with autism...
Maybe that was true in the past but I wouldn't agree with that now.
 

Egg Centric

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Only if you make the (lazy) assumption that almost every high functioning autistic is gifted at maths which, as noted above, is nothing more than a stereotype.

Fair enough (and others have made this point in other ways) - I was thinking it in more of a “details oriented” way rather than maths per se but you and others are right to call me out on making assumptions based on autists I have known who may not have been representative of the entire spectrum.

Still, it’s amusingly bad stats!
 

43066

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Fair enough (and others have made this point in other ways) - I was thinking it in more of a “details oriented” way rather than maths per se but you and others are right to call me out on making assumptions based on autists I have known who may not have been representative of the entire spectrum.

Your comments were well intentioned and discussion of autism, along with other developmental conditions, is a good thing to promote understanding :).

Still, it’s amusingly bad stats!

Indeed.
 

ComUtoR

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What should obvious to everyone, regardless of them being on the autistic spectrum or not, after no more than a few moments with a calculator is that the UK figure suggests a rate of diagnosis of 1% of the population, while the worldwide figure suggests a rate of 10%.

Why 'obvious' to calculate the percentage you would need to know the population of the UK and the World. Whilst they may be well known to some, and available to google, it isn't 'obvious to everyone' If went down your local high street and surveyed people. I doubt many would know the UK population; let alone the world population.

Still, it’s amusingly bad stats!

Only bad stats if you are aware of the numbers involved. I'm not a fan of the poster personally and it could have been done differently but...


....well intentioned and discussion of autism, along with other developmental conditions, is a good thing to promote understanding :).

Very much. I would hope that anyone seeing the poster takes a quick look and learns that its more than they thought and potentially the next person they see may have Autism.
 

Class800

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At the rate of 1/100, 750 million would be about right. The CDC have also quoted this number. I’m not sure why 700,000 can’t be diagnosed in the UK though.

Unless it’s a misread of 700,000 as 7 million.
Because the UK wouldn't be such a small proportion of the global figure - noting lower income countries won't have such established diagnostic systems
 

D1537

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The figure I have heard and accept for the proportion of people with autism today is 1 in 30, or 3.33%, meaning on average there is someone with autism in every school class of 30 pupils (and despite this very very few teachers have received any training at all on how to correctly handle people with autism, leading many of them to have absolutely dreadful experiences with the education system and develop mental health problems into adolescence, rather than them being treated as the asset to society that they can be, particularly in industries such as the railway, which is a very sad and unfortunate state of affairs for us to be in and for which I attribute the majority of the blame to teachers)
This may have been true in the past, but is no longer - all teachers receive significant training in not only how to teach autistic students, but also how to recognise the signs of undiagnosed ASD.
 

gg1

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Why 'obvious' to calculate the percentage you would need to know the population of the UK and the World. Whilst they may be well known to some, and available to google, it isn't 'obvious to everyone' If went down your local high street and surveyed people. I doubt many would know the UK population; let alone the world population.

Really?

I would expect the vast majority of people would have at least a rough idea (which is all you need in this instance) of the UK and global population combined with the most basic knowledge of percentages.

In the realms of general knowledge it's at a similar level to knowing the chemical symbol for water, the capital of France and the year WW2 ended.
 

Dai Corner

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Is immediately checking the figures a sign of being on the autistic spectrum?

I often find myself doing this.
 

gg1

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Is immediately checking the figures a sign of being on the autistic spectrum?

I often find myself doing this.

I often do too.

I've never had a diagnosis but strongly suspect I'm towards the milder end of the spectrum.
 

nw1

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I was amused to see this photo in Waterloo an hour ago. For those using screenreaders, the caption says (decorated with the greatness of Network Rail and South Western Railway) that 700 000 people in the UK have been diagnosed with autism… and 750 million people worldwide.

Anyone with a vague understanding of both maths and geography would, if they though about it, see that these figures cannot both be true and the 750 million one is especially suspect.

But it especially amuses me that this is about autism. Almost any high functioning autistic will pick up on this instantly. And then be reminded the normie world still don’t geddit…

The lesson here is anyone in marketing or PR needs to be supervised when dealing with actual numbers.

I think your argument assumes that people instantly know what the world population is, without thinking about it. You can have a good understanding of maths and geography without necessarily being razor-sharp on the world population figure - and someone with an ASD wouldn't necessarily know the world population, or even that of the UK.

I had to think about the world population myself, though I recognised that, at around 1% for actual diagnoses, the UK figure sounds about right.
 

pdeaves

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Anyone with a vague understanding of both maths and geography would, if they though about it, see that these figures cannot both be true and the 750 million one is especially suspect.

But it especially amuses me that this is about autism. Almost any high functioning autistic will pick up on this instantly. And then be reminded the normie world still don’t geddit…
Does this not assume that 'all' autistic people know the world's population and the detected case rate? People discuss 1% of the population but this is not stated on the poster.
 

ls2270

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To my mind this notice typifies the ‘sloppy journalism’ that is so prevalent nowadays. How could whoever was charged with producing this make such a schoolboy error? It’s nice to see such intelligent debate on here about it as usually if one dares point out basic errors such as this or the numerous spelling errors on posters, captions etc everywhere one is branded pedantic! People should take more pride in their work.
 

Bayum

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Because the UK wouldn't be such a small proportion of the global figure - noting lower income countries won't have such established diagnostic systems
Unless you knew how difficult it was to get a diagnosis these days…
 

43301

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I fail to see why Network Rail feels the need to put that on one of the big displays which could be used for something useful relating to train running. How does telling everyone that it's 'Autism Awareness Month' make any difference to people with autism, or to anyone else?
 

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It appears to be taken in a mirror, look where the photographer is. Of course it'd not have been hard for the paper to flip it in Photoshop before printing it!
 
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