2024 Local, Mayoral and PCC Elections

[TrainGeekUK]

Or they’ll all start to vote for Mr Galloway and his party….

 

[Thirteen]

I think the London race as predicted will be tight, it's a case of the outer boroughs versus the inner boroughs on who decides the race.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Oldham Labour loss to No Party Control. New councillors are independents running on the Gaza issue

Labour also briefing that they've lost the west Midlands election, with this quite unsavoury quote reported by BBC from a senior labour source

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68609729

Same thing happened in Kirklees on an otherwise good day for the Labour Party. In my urban and "diverse" ward I'm fairly sure that the Gaza issue was a factor, but probably less so in the more rural ward my brother lives in.
I voted Labour for the regional mayor, as I feel continuity is important in such an office and Ms. Brabin hasn't done or said anything to turn me away.
In the local I voted for the Yorkshire Party, as Labour have lost me by trying to plug the gaps in their finances by massively cutting down on long-stay parking. If the proposed changes go through I'll have to park my car about a 15min walk from my home most nights.

 

[YorkRailFan]

NEW: Number of council seats at 6 PM

LAB: 914 (+142)
LDM: 365 (+64)
CON: 360 (-349)
⚪️ IND: 193 (+83)
GRN: 105 (+43)
RA: 26 (+12)
⚫️ WPB: 4 (+4)
RFM: 1 (+1)

87/107 councils declared

https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1786441205544284355?t=Fmnei6oRfNsNifE2JrpIaw&s=19

Reform have gained a Councillor I see.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

One result that struck me that I imagine Labour will be happy about is that they retook Nuneaton and Bedworth borough council, going from just 5 seats to 20 seats out of 38. The corresponding Parliamentary seat was Labour until 2010 but had swung massively Tory over the years since, until in 2019 the Tories took over 60% of the vote there. If that area is heading back to Labour, that suggests the Tories are in trouble in a part of the country where they had been doing very well over the last few years. The maps of council election results at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuneaton_and_Bedworth_Borough_Council_elections show just how dramatically blue that council had gone until yesterday.

 

[Gloster]

What’s the betting that tomorrow’s Hate Mail will concentrate on Leadsom’s petulant complaint on the BBC?

 

[renegademaster]

I think the London race as predicted will be tight, it's a case of the outer boroughs versus the inner boroughs on who decides the race.

Plus probably a lot of muslims not turning out for labour. Not really a gallowayesque candidate though.

 

[brad465]

This is part of the problem Labour currently have. The government are clearly unpopular, but there’s no real enthusiasm for Labour, such as that seen in 1997. This then becomes tricky as you have to convince disaffected voters to switch sides and actively vote, not just stay at home. Simply not being the Tories might not be enough to secure Labour a majority.

This feeds in to part of the chatter around London today - a low turnout will like favour the conservatives as Khan’s detractors are more likely to have the motivation to go out and vote.

Perhaps the sad thing at the moment is the general apathy throughout politics in all parts of the UK.

Yet if you tell those folk what the causes are and the solutions needed, they disagree with them, thinking they are worse/unworkable/too radical to implement. In this instance the entire political system is broken, with particular emphasis on the voting system, but then proposing electoral reform leads to all sorts of headwinds in gaining support, and/or claims PR is worse. Things will not get better until we have a system that encourages better candidates to come forward and new ideas to flourish, something a least worst-style system shuts out.

Like many things in life, it's easy to get agreement on disliking something, but as soon as you start identifying specific causes and proposing relevant solutions, everyone goes their separate ways and gets nowhere towards their common goal.

 

[JD2168]

Sheffield has remained hung. The Conservatives lost their seat with Labour gaining seats from the Conservatives & Liberal Democrat’s. Labour did lose a seat in the Darnall ward to an Independent who campaigned on a pro Gaza policy.

 

[Thirteen]

The turnout in London was 40.5% down from 42% in 2021 but not terrible.

 

[Gloster]

The turnout in London was 40.5% down from 42% in 2021 but not terrible.

But is it fairly even across the city or are we seeing a fall in the inner area and an increase in the outer suburbs?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

But is it fairly even across the city or are we seeing a fall in the inner area and an increase in the outer suburbs?

You can see the detailed figures at https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-progress/verification-and-turnout-data. Eyeballing those figures, I get a definite sense of inner London being a little lower than outer London, but only by a few %. However there are a couple of outliers that I imagine would be causing some panic: Bexley and Bromley - one of the most solidly Tory area - is showing 48%, while City and East - which would normally be solidly Labour - is coming in at just 31%. I would imagine you are looking at ULEZ anger pushing turnout at Bexley/Bromley and Gaza depressing it in muslim areas of east London.

 

[nw1]

What’s the betting that tomorrow’s Hate Mail will concentrate on Leadsom’s petulant complaint on the BBC?

I don't know but Leadsom doesn't come across well.

 

[3141]

I think it's somewhat disturbing if there's a substantial number of people voting, or not voting, for a particular party because of its stance in relation to events taking place a long way outside this country. It can affect not only those voters themselves but many others if their decisions skew the results of elections. Local ones this time, but possibly the national one not many months from now.

A similar situation, but on a much more limited scale is the suggestion a few posts earlier that some voters in Harlow who regularly drive into London may have chosen not vote Labour in order to tell Sadiq Khan what they think of the ULEZ extension.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

You can see the detailed figures at https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-progress/verification-and-turnout-data. Eyeballing those figures, I get a definite sense of inner London being a little lower than outer London, but only by a few %. However there are a couple of outliers that I imagine would be causing some panic: Bexley and Bromley - one of the most solidly Tory area - is showing 48%, while City and East - which would normally be solidly Labour - is coming in at just 31%. I would imagine you are looking at ULEZ anger pushing turnout at Bexley/Bromley and Gaza depressing it in muslim areas of east London.

I also managed to find the 2021 London turnout figures at https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-results/results-2021. Bit harder to get the turnout for those because each assembly seat is a separate PDF, but Bexley + Bromley was 44% (up to 48% this time) and City and East was 35% (down to 31% this time). So I can see why Labour would be worried, although I would still think the Tories' overall unpopularity should be enough to get Sadiq Khan over the line. My main fear would be that if the Tories do a lot better than expected in London, they will interpret that as a green light to go full on anti-environmentalist, while Keir Starmer might panic and start ditching green commitments.

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LibDems are claiming that they've taken control of Dorset (though I haven't yet seen any report on other news channels) https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1786481894021910665

 

[Yew]

Sheffield has remained hung. The Conservatives lost their seat with Labour gaining seats from the Conservatives & Liberal Democrat’s. Labour did lose a seat in the Darnall ward to an Independent who campaigned on a pro Gaza policy.

What exactly is a Sheffield councillor going to do about Gaza?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

There also seems to be a claim from LibDems (which I haven't been able to verify) that the Tories have lost every single seat in Cheltenham (where the LibDems control the council but the Parliamentary seat is a Tory-held marginal)

 

[Gloster]

There also seems to be a claim from LibDems (which I haven't been able to verify) that the Tories have lost every single seat in Cheltenham (where the LibDems control the council but the Parliamentary seat is a Tory-held marginal)

The BBC is giving it as LD 36, Green 3, Ind. 1 and Conservative 0. The Conservatives lost all 6 of their councillors; Labour doesn’t appear to have had any (it is Cheltenham, after all).

 

[HullRailMan]

Interesting to note that the Tory council seat loss is broadly as bad as expected, but Labour’s gains are only around 40% of that number. That means it’s not a simple switch between the two, with Lib Dem’s, Greens, Galloway/workers and independents taking seats that Labour should/could have won. Even Sky are now saying that, based on yesterdays vote share, Labour would struggle to get a majority at a general election. Interesting times.

 

[LUYMun]

Rushmoor Borough Council seats have been won by a landslide number of Labour councillors, the first time the party has overall control of the Council.

 

[simonw]

There also seems to be a claim from LibDems (which I haven't been able to verify) that the Tories have lost every single seat in Cheltenham (where the LibDems control the council but the Parliamentary seat is a Tory-held marginal)

Cheltenham result - Local Elections 2024

Get the latest news and election results for Cheltenham council in the 2024 Local elections from BBC News

www.bbc.co.uk

Shows Tory 3803975 I. Cheltenham

 

[Gloster]

Of those still to come, it looks as though the Conservatives aren’t doing too well in Dorset. However, there is still the omnishambles of Warrington to come and I doubt if Labour are looking forward to that.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The BBC is giving it as LD 36, Green 3, Ind. 1 and Conservative 0. The Conservatives lost all 6 of their councillors; Labour doesn’t appear to have had any (it is Cheltenham, after all).

Yep I found that thx. It also looks like the Tories now have no councillors at all in Woking, and only one in Eastleigh and two in Mole Valley - all areas where the Parliamentary seats are Conservative (although they all seem to have a history of the LibDems doing much better at local level)

 

[Snow1964]

Of those still to come, it looks as though the Conservatives aren’t doing too well in Dorset. However, there is still the omnishambles of Warrington to come and I doubt if Labour are looking forward to that.

Dorset has gone Lib Dem with 42 out of 82 seats, gaining 13 seats from Conservatives (now 30), also 4 Greens, 4 Independents and a token 2 for Labour.

 

[TrainGeekUK]

Where’s Mr Galloway this evening?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I'm just browsing round the council results for the West Midlands. Pretty much every council is showing the Tories losing a high proportion of their seats to Labour except only minor losses to the LibDems in Solihull (which I guess is unusual in being such a prosperous part of the Birmingham urban area where Labour have very little presence). And Walsall, where the Tories held all 12 of their seats that were up for election, and Labour lost a couple of seats to independents. Does anyone know if there were any special factors in Walsall?

 

[Trackman]

Sheffield has remained hung. The Conservatives lost their seat with Labour gaining seats from the Conservatives & Liberal Democrat’s. Labour did lose a seat in the Darnall ward to an Independent who campaigned on a pro Gaza policy.

I see the Green party took the Byker Grove council seat from Labour, chances are with a pro-Palestine policy which is the Green party policy - or you could say pro Gazza. There's a joke in there, somewhere.

The turnout in London was 40.5% down from 42% in 2021 but not terrible.

Still a great turnout. I bet local council election turnouts hover around the 20-25% mark (in London), never really looked it up.

 

[gg1]

And Walsall, where the Tories held all 12 of their seats that were up for election, and Labour lost a couple of seats to independents. Does anyone know if there were any special factors in Walsall?

The two independent "gains" were actually sitting councillors who were elected as Labour candidates in the last election but resigned from the party last year in protest at Labour's position on Gaza.

 

[brad465]

Sheffield has remained hung.

Why did all the councillors have their trousers down?

 

[nr758123]

I see the Green party took the Byker Grove council seat from Labour

Byker Grove was actually filmed in Benwell, not Byker. Someone more familiar with ward boundaries might be able to confirm whether this would be in Benwell ward (Labour hold) or Elswick (green gain).

In looking up the results for Benwell ward, the Lib Dem candidate was Hans Christian Andersen, who I'm sure has a story to tell.