2024 Local, Mayoral and PCC Elections

[simonw]

Well… how long now until Sunak calls the general election? My guess is sooner than the autumn now.

He's hanging on hoping 'something will turn up". It rarely does.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

He's hanging on hoping 'something will turn up". It rarely does.

Indeed I suspect he will run it down to the wire unless a plum job offer turns up in California

 

[Thirteen]

Andy Street is probably kicking himself not running as an independent because he would have won based on his record.

 

[317 forever]

The change of the voting system to FPTP may have helped Labour's Sadiq Khan hold on in London. Some voters for the LibDems, Greens and independents may have switched to 2nd choice Sadiq. I think the LibDem candidate overtook the Green candidate because fewer people are still thinking about the coalition and tuition fees nowadays.

Conversely, it may have rallied more 1st votes towards Labour in the West Midlands, narrowly costing Andy Street his position.

The change to FPTP was particularly appalling in London. The package voted for in the 1998 referendum specifically included the Mayor being elected by the Supplementary Vote.

 

[Busaholic]

Well… how long now until Sunak calls the general election? My guess is sooner than the autumn now.

If it's June 27th, then my prediction earlier that the G.E. would take place in the first half of the year would prove true!

 

[Thirteen]

The change of the voting system to FPTP may have helped Labour's Sadiq Khan hold on in London. Some voters for the LibDems, Greens and independents may have switched to 2nd choice Sadiq. I think the LibDem candidate overtook the Green candidate because fewer people are still thinking about the coalition and tuition fees nowadays.

Conversely, it may have rallied more 1st votes towards Labour in the West Midlands, narrowly costing Andy Street his position.

The change to FPTP was particularly appalling in London. The package voted for in the 1998 referendum specifically included the Mayor being elected by the Supplementary Vote.

Without being unkind, Rob Blackie's manifesto was better than Zoe Garbett, some of her campaign promises like a flat fare for all of the TfL rail networks seemed a bit airy fairy without being costed.

Have to admit, the campaign in London was rough all around.

 

[Kite159]

...

I'm shocked, shocked, SHOCKED that Sunak cancelling Birmingham's HS2 link to Manchester was not a roaringly successful policy move for Andy Street's chances of re-election.....

Which might have been mentioned by less than 1% of voters who cared for HS2 and getting places slightly quicker for more money. Most wouldn't care as they jump into their cars if they wanted to visit Manchester.

History will tell if any of those new mayors make any positive impacts, or will they just be a total waste of money like spending millions on painting buses yellow when cutting frequencies.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The change of the voting system to FPTP may have helped Labour's Sadiq Khan hold on in London. Some voters for the LibDems, Greens and independents may have switched to 2nd choice Sadiq. I think the LibDem candidate overtook the Green candidate because fewer people are still thinking about the coalition and tuition fees nowadays.

Indeed. I ,myself had been intending to vote LibDem (and did so for the London Assembly elections) but the change to FPTP combined with my disgust at Susan Hall's campaign meant in the end I felt obliged to vote tactically for Sadiq Khan just to make sure Susan Hall was defeated by as big a margin as possible. I doubt I'm the only one who thought along similar lines.

Realistically though, Susan Hall was never going to win whatever the electoral system: Despite all the Tory scaremongering over ULEZ, the idea that they could take a Labour mayor's seat with an electorate of 10M at a time when they have become so incredibly unpopular nationally was daft. And I think the Tories made a huge tactical mistake with their expectation management, with all the talk that they might win - because it means that now what is, compared to the national situation quite a decent result for them in London (their % vote only dropped by a small amount) looks to everyone like a disaster.

 

[ainsworth74]

Which might have been mentioned by less than 1% of voters who cared for HS2 and getting places slightly quicker for more money. Most wouldn't care as they jump into their cars if they wanted to visit Manchester.

Considering the margin of victory, that 1% is quite important...

 

[Busaholic]

Anyone think the Tories might lose one or both of the Teesside and West Midlands mayoral elections? I do, and I'm hoping against hope it's the former one.

I'll settle for what actually happened, particularly as the West Midlands Police had (disgracefully, imo) announced just before Polling Day that they were investigating a complaint from a Tory MP that Richard Parker, the Labour candidate in that Mayoral election, may have broken electoral law by mis-declaring his main residence.

 

[Gloster]

Meanwhile in PCC contests, with 2 of 33 results still to come, Labour have taken 10 from the Conservatives; previously they only had 4 PCCs.

I reckon that the happiest person this election is not Starmer, but the official who turned Johnson away for having no ID.

I'll settle for what actually happened, particularly as the West Midlands Police had (disgracefully, imo) announced just before Polling Day that they were investigating a complaint from a Tory MP that Richard Parker, the Labour candidate in that Mayoral election, may have broken electoral law by mis-declaring his main residence.

There seems to be an attitude, so far most obvious among the right, that purdah does not apply in for non-Westminster elections like PCC and mayors. I don’t know if this has ever been tested.

 

[Thirteen]

Indeed. I ,myself had been intending to vote LibDem (and did so for the London Assembly elections) but the change to FPTP combined with my disgust at Susan Hall's campaign meant in the end I felt obliged to vote tactically for Sadiq Khan just to make sure Susan Hall was defeated by as big a margin as possible. I doubt I'm the only one who thought along similar lines.

Realistically though, Susan Hall was never going to win whatever the electoral system: Despite all the Tory scaremongering over ULEZ, the idea that they could take a Labour mayor's seat with an electorate of 10M at a time when they have become so incredibly unpopular nationally was daft. And I think the Tories made a huge tactical mistake with their expectation management, with all the talk that they might win - because it means that now what is, compared to the national situation quite a decent result for them in London (their % vote only dropped by a small amount) looks to everyone like a disaster.

To me, Hall came across as a terrible candidate and the fatal mistake was going all in on ULEZ and Pay per mile. I suspect the promises of extending the Night Tube was probably due to not appealing to the inner London voters and throwing them a bone.

I don't think a Tory Mayor can ever be ruled out in London again but they need to do a bit of soul searching and get the right candidates in place.

I'm happy Sadiq Khan is getting a third term but there is a side of me that thinks that it should be his last and let someone else take the reins in 2028.

 

[317 forever]

To me, Hall came across as a terrible candidate and the fatal mistake was going all in on ULEZ and Pay per mile. I suspect the promises of extending the Night Tube was probably due to not appealing to the inner London voters and throwing them a bone.

I don't think a Tory Mayor can ever be ruled out in London again but they need to do a bit of soul searching and get the right candidates in place.

I'm happy Sadiq Khan is getting a third term but there is a side of me that thinks that it should be his last and let someone else take the reins in 2028.

If Gen Kitchen loses her Wellingborough seat later this year she could be the Labour candidate for London Mayor in 2028.

If Labour get 2 terms at Westminster I think we could get another Tory London Mayor in 2032.

 

[cactustwirly]

If Gen Kitchen loses her Wellingborough seat later this year she could be the Labour candidate for London Mayor in 2028.

If Labour get 2 terms at Westminster I think we could get another Tory London Mayor in 2032.

That's a big if, they haven't won a general election yet!

It hasn't been a hugely convincing win for Labour, they are only doing well because the Tories are deeply unpopular, not because they have anything to offer.

 

[Thirteen]

If Gen Kitchen loses her Wellingborough seat later this year she could be the Labour candidate for London Mayor in 2028.

If Labour get 2 terms at Westminster I think we could get another Tory London Mayor in 2032.

At 28, she seems a bit young, I think someone within the London Labour MP ranks is more likely though I'm not sure who but they have options

 

[brad465]

That's a big if, they haven't won a general election yet!

It hasn't been a hugely convincing win for Labour, they are only doing well because the Tories are deeply unpopular, not because they have anything to offer.

That's how every election under FPTP works, you vote for what you least oppose, not what you most want.

 

[deltic]

If Gen Kitchen loses her Wellingborough seat later this year she could be the Labour candidate for London Mayor in 2028.

Who? To win in London you need reasonable name recognition - it's where the Tories have come unstuck in the last 2 elections. Sadiq Kahn is not a popular mayor and someone with a good public profile and a bit of charisma stood a good chance of beating him.

An extreme example would be If David Attenborough had stood for the Greens he would have had a good chance of winning if you look at how well they did on the party list vote, far better than for mayor.

The Tories no longer have people like Ken Clarke or Michael Hesseltine who are well known and appeal to a wider electorate. Find one of them and London could easily go blue again.

 

[davews]

And on the PCC elections. I see in Thames Valley the conservative candidate has been re-elected. The Independent, who sounded interesting on his CV and who I voted for, came last. Our constituency, Bracknell, had the lowest turnout at just 15%. It certainly was very quiet, just me, when I voted around 6pm.

 

[YorkRailFan]

Reform gained a seat at the London Assembly, which cost the Tories.

NEW: London Assembly Election Results

LAB: 11 (=)
CON: 8 (-1)
GRN: 3 (=)
LDM: 2 (=)
REF: 1 (+1)

Changes with 2021

https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1786861104028602440?t=K22hNgcEv1o0PGk8mUlPOw&s=19

Greater Manchester Mayoral Result:

Burnham (LAB): 63.4% (-3.9)
Evans (CON): 10.4% (-9.2)
Buckley (IND): 7.6% (New)
➡️ Barker (RFM): 7.5% (+4.8)
Spencer (GRN): 6.9% (+2.5)
Austin (LDM): 4.2% (+1.0)

No EDem (-1.3) or INDs (-1.6) as previous.

Labour HOLD.
Changes w/ 2021.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786759761465147531?t=zVEahZKMHswssy8_yiW9_g&s=19

Unsurprising to say the least given Burnham's popularity.

West Yorkshire Mayoral Result:

Brabin (LAB): 50.4% (+7.3)
Craven (CON: 15.1% (-14.0)
Cooper (GRN): 12.2% (+3.0)
⚪️ Buxton (Yorks): 8.8% (-0.9)
Tilt (IND): 8.5% (New)
Golton (LDM) 5.0% (=)

No RFM (-2.5) or EDem (-1.5) as previous.

Labour HOLD.
Changes w/ 2021.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786761281761931534?t=zVEahZKMHswssy8_yiW9_g&s=19

Also unsurprising that Labour held onto West Yorkshire, the Greens were close to the Tories on this one though.

On the topic of Street, I'd argue his fate was sealed after the West Midlands PCC results were announced.

West Midlands PCC Result:

LAB: 57.5% (+12.0)
CON: 42.5% (+3.1)

No LDM (-6.3), IND (-4.5), RFM (-3.0), WM (-1.3).

Labour HOLD.
Changes w/ 2021.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786802137495748979?t=SoAp1J6_dV5geO7KDvFn4Q&s=19

 

[Bantamzen]

That's how every election under FPTP works, you vote for what you least oppose, not what you most want.

If that is really how people vote, then we deserve every bad government we've had and will have.

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1786761281761931534?t=zVEahZKMHswssy8_yiW9_g&s=19

Also unsurprising that Labour held onto West Yorkshire, the Greens were close to the Tories on this one though.

She'll be happy to have held onto the easiest job in West Yorkshire, she hasn't had to anything in four years except take credit for other people's work. However she did state that there would be "spades in the ground by 2028" for the proposed tram network, so now the job isn't as easy as just turning up to press conferences. I'm going to stick my neck out and say she's going to need a bloody good excuse when it doesn't happen, especially given that she almost certainly won't be able to blame the Tories.

 

[75A]

Well… how long now until Sunak calls the general election? My guess is sooner than the autumn now.

Let's hope so.

 

[nw1]

Well… how long now until Sunak calls the general election? My guess is sooner than the autumn now.

Has he left it too late now though?

It will presumably have to be either October or June to avoid the summer holiday period (either for the election itself, or campaigning: a September election wouldn't work due to having to campaign in August).

We're too late for the traditional June date of the first or second Thursday (1983, 1987, 2001. 2017) presumably. I guess it could conceivably be late June. How much notice needs to be given? Is it 6 weeks?

Indeed I suspect he will run it down to the wire unless a plum job offer turns up in California

But I still think it'll be before the clocks go back.

Being dark outside during non-working hours Mon to Fri, with the possibility of really bad weather, for much of the time will harm campaigning and turnout. Also fuel bills start becoming a big concern once the clocks go back, which won't help the government.

Oct 24th (latest possible date still on BST) has been bandied about quite a lot, if I had to pick a date that would be my bet. Still hoping it will be earlier, though.

Small chance of November, but January 2025 absolutely won't happen, for all manner of previously-discussed reasons. I would be prepared to bet £100 that it will be before the end of November.

 

[SteveM70]

Harper did say “this year” in his Kuenssberg interview, although that may just have been a lazy choice of words

 

[nw1]

If Labour get 2 terms at Westminster I think we could get another Tory London Mayor in 2032.

The hope is that by 2032, right-wing populism will be less fashionable than currently, and consequently the Tory Party will be forced to move towards the centre again. If they do this, then they have a good chance of winning London again.

Harper did say “this year” in his Kuenssberg interview, although that may just have been a lazy choice of words

There's absolutely no doubt it'll be this year, IMO.

 

[HullRailMan]

Labour's gains are around 60% of that number. The smaller size of a ward compared to a parliamentary constituency means that you always get a wider selection of parties in the running, so it's not especially surprising that other parties have picked up seats, and the reduced importance makes tactical voting less of a priority.

It's difficult to compare the vote share in local elections to generals. You can only really look at swings, since there weren't any council elections in a whole swathe of urban areas where Labour have a much larger vote share. Given that Sky tend to employ fairly low rate commentators to waffle non-stop, it's most likely that they've just taken the raw vote-share figures and not stopped to think about it at all.

Simply not true - Labour council seat net gains number 39% of Tory losses. Labour didn’t capture the majority of Tory losses.

Labour’s national vote share in the local elections was 34%, that’s down 1% on last years local elections. I’m not seeing a groundswell of support for Labour, just a falling away of Tory support. For context, Labour got a vote share of 47% in the 1995 local elections and 43% in 1996, ahead of the 1997 landslide. Their performance broadly matched the opinion polls then, but isn’t now.

 

[londonteacher]

Has he left it too late now though?

It will presumably have to be either October or June to avoid the summer holiday period (either for the election itself, or campaigning: a September election wouldn't work due to having to campaign in August).

We're too late for the traditional June date of the first or second Thursday (1983, 1987, 2001. 2017) presumably. I guess it could conceivably be late June. How much notice needs to be given? Is it 6 weeks?



But I still think it'll be before the clocks go back.

Being dark outside during non-working hours Mon to Fri, with the possibility of really bad weather, for much of the time will harm campaigning and turnout. Also fuel bills start becoming a big concern once the clocks go back, which won't help the government.

Oct 24th (latest possible date still on BST) has been bandied about quite a lot, if I had to pick a date that would be my bet. Still hoping it will be earlier, though.

Small chance of November, but January 2025 absolutely won't happen, for all manner of previously-discussed reasons. I would be prepared to bet £100 that it will be before the end of November.

Yes, I'm pretty sure that it is six weeks. So, he could call an election at any point this month to be for the summer recess.

 

[bspahh]

Has he left it too late now though?

It will presumably have to be either October or June to avoid the summer holiday period (either for the election itself, or campaigning: a September election wouldn't work due to having to campaign in August).

We're too late for the traditional June date of the first or second Thursday (1983, 1987, 2001. 2017) presumably. I guess it could conceivably be late June. How much notice needs to be given? Is it 6 weeks?



But I still think it'll be before the clocks go back.

Being dark outside during non-working hours Mon to Fri, with the possibility of really bad weather, for much of the time will harm campaigning and turnout. Also fuel bills start becoming a big concern once the clocks go back, which won't help the government.

Oct 24th (latest possible date still on BST) has been bandied about quite a lot, if I had to pick a date that would be my bet. Still hoping it will be earlier, though.

Small chance of November, but January 2025 absolutely won't happen, for all manner of previously-discussed reasons. I would be prepared to bet £100 that it will be before the end of November.

At Oddschecker these are the decimal odds for the month of the next election. Small values mean you win less money if you win.

May       201
June       21
July        8.5
August     51
September  19
October     5
November    2
December    8
January    18.6

The favourite is November, with even odds, so if you bet £10 you would get your £10 stake back and win £10.

 

[ainsworth74]

At Oddschecker these are the decimal odds for the month of the next election. Small values mean you win less money if you win.

May       201
June       21
July        8.5
August     51
September  19
October     5
November    2
December    8
January    18.6

The favourite is November, with even odds, so if you bet £10 you would get your £10 stake back and win £10.

I think the bookies have probably got it right here. There's a small chance of July but October/November almost certainly when it happens.

 

[nw1]

At Oddschecker these are the decimal odds for the month of the next election. Small values mean you win less money if you win.

May       201
June       21
July        8.5
August     51
September  19
October     5
November    2
December    8
January    18.6

The favourite is November, with even odds, so if you bet £10 you would get your £10 stake back and win £10.

Interesting it's November rather than October, it seems strange to favour an election in the "dark" part of autumn when there is little or no daylight during the week outside working hours. Not to mention the weather is often markedly worse in late autumn compared to earlier in the autumn.

Plus it clashes with the US election, as many have said. If Trump wins in the USA (hopefully a big "if") I suspect it will be a wake-up call to the dangers of right-wing populism, further harming the current version of the Tories.

To minimise losses, they really would be wise to get the election in before the clocks change and even more critically, before the US election, IMO, unless it looks like Trump isn't going to win.

Also strange that there are longer odds on June than January. A January election is absolute bonkers and makes no sense whatsoever, least of all to the Tories if they want to retain as many seats as possible. I find it hard to understand why anyone would even consider it as a possibility. The Tories would suffer probably their worst ever loss if they tried that on. Christmas campaigning. Appalling weather. Energy bills at their highest during the year. Hanging on until the last legal moment. People would see it as an act of unbridled arrogance, egotism and conceit by Sunak, the resentment would be immense and they would lose seats that they wouldn't have done otherwise.

 

[jfollows]

Also strange that there are longer odds on June than January. A January election is absolute bonkers and makes no sense whatsoever, least of all to the Tories if they want to retain as many seats as possible. I find it hard to understand why anyone would even consider it as a possibility. The Tories would suffer probably their worst ever loss if they tried that on. Christmas campaigning. Appalling weather. Energy bills at their highest during the year. Hanging on until the last legal moment. People would see it as an act of unbridled arrogance, egotism and conceit by Sunak, the resentment would be immense and they would lose seats that they wouldn't have done otherwise.

January is very easy to understand and it's why I've bet £10 on it happening then; I don't think it will but you're ascribing logic and sense to a process which doesn't have much of either. Anyone (Rishi) calling an election whenever he calls it for is going to be blamed for getting the timing wrong when he loses significantly, which he will, so not making a decision and letting time run out and being forced into a January election is understandable to me.

EDIT I worked for 7 years in the public sector in which the prevailing mentality was to blame people for bad results which followed decisions they made. Bad results which followed inaction were never blamed on people who didn't do something when they should have done. People hid behind this mentality and lots of them were never guilty of making decisions of any sort, just in case "something bad" happened for which they would be blamed.