2024 predictions

[Hadders]

I've a feeling that the election might end up being more 1992 rather than 1997, as far as Labour are concerned.

Labour should win, easily. But is Kier Starmer as electable as Tony Blair or seen as more of a Neil Kinnock?

 

[Thirteen]

I've a feeling that the election might end up being more 1992 rather than 1997, as far as Labour are concerned.

Labour should win, easily. But is Kier Starmer as electable as Tony Blair or seen as more of a Neil Kinnock?

A better comparison would be the 2022 Australian Election where people had enough of the current party and switched to the opposition.

There's a side of me that thinks Keir Starmer will probably do a term then be replaced by Angela Rayner in 2029.

 

[Bevan Price]

I've a feeling that the election might end up being more 1992 rather than 1997, as far as Labour are concerned.

Labour should win, easily. But is Kier Starmer as electable as Tony Blair or seen as more of a Neil Kinnock?

Keir Starmer's main advantage is that he isn't Jeremy Corbyn.
Unfortunately, there are some in Labour who think that Corbyn was right, and they will create problems for Starmer.

 

[nw1]

I've a feeling that the election might end up being more 1992 rather than 1997, as far as Labour are concerned.

Labour should win, easily. But is Kier Starmer as electable as Tony Blair or seen as more of a Neil Kinnock?

That's a relief

I thought for a moment that by referring to 1992 you were saying the Tories would win again, albeit with a smaller majority.

Starmer isn't as charismatic as Blair, it's true. On the other hand I suspect Sunak is disliked far more intensely than Major was in the 90s. I still think a decent majority of 80 or so for Labour, simply because it's likely that all apart from the firmly right-wing are utterly fed up of the Tories. John Major was really quite inoffensive, unlike the likes of Sunak, Braverman, Anderson, Cleverly, etc. And Major was competent whereas to me Sunak just acts like an overgrown petulant 16-year-old Winchester College pupil.

 

[AlistairCowell]

My predictions for 2024:
General election on Thursday 2nd May 2024, and Labour (Kier Starmer) wins;
Death and state funeral of the former US president Jimmy Carter.

My prediction of trains in 2024 is that:
All 1977-80 built Glasgow Subway Stock replaced with new Stadler trains;
Ex-TPE Class 68 repainted in new DRS livery;
GBRF 68011 to 68014 enters service;
Either Class 175s or Mk5s to Chiltern Railways;
Ex-LNWR Class 230 and D78 stock owned by VivaRail off to Sims Metal in Newport;
Varamis Rail Class 321 units repainted in Varamis Rail livery;
ScotRail Class 318 and 320 replacement stock awarded;
Class 769 joining ScotRail on a short term lease;
GWR Class 769/9 units sent to Sims Metal in Newport;
New Bi-Mode units for Northern to replace Class 769s is announced.

My prediction for rail companies for 2024:
Avanti West Coast is transferred to OLR;
DB Cargo UK gets bought over, marking the end of all DB operations in Great Britain;
London Overground will have its contract extended from May 2024;
Some of proposed services by Grand Union will be rejected by ORR.

 

[nw1]

Another string of feasibility studies into the reopening of lines such as Skipton-Colne/Hythe-Fawley/Portishead/Tweedbank-Hawick/[Other favourite reopening scheme here] to be published. To be repeated in five years time.

Mind you isn't that a mixture of pipe-dreams (Skipton-Colne) and projects a long way down the line already (Portishead and perhaps Hythe)?

 

[Hadders]

I thought for a moment that by referring to 1992 you were saying the Tories would win again, albeit with a smaller majority.

I do fear, that like in 1992, labour won’t win. It’s Labour’s election to lose, let’s hope they don’t have a Sheffield Rally in the diary!

 

[nw1]

I do fear, that like in 1992, labour won’t win. It’s Labour’s election to lose, let’s hope they don’t have a Sheffield Rally in the diary!

I think the situation is very different to 1992 though. If you look at the opinion polls in the 12 months or so leading up to 1992, the Tories were frequently equal or even ahead - the replacement of Thatcher by Major made a big difference and people saw Major as more moderate, a safe pair of hands.

Sunak does not have anything like the relative popularity and trust that Major had in 1991. He is seen by many as a reactionary, prone to saying utterly stupid things and acting petulantly, and has made no successful attempt to steady the ship. Instead many aspects of modern UK life are going from bad to worse and the Sunak government appears to be obsessed with immigration and fighting "wokery" to the exclusion of anything else. Furthermore he has absolutely atrocious diplomatic skills, witness his appalling treatment of Mr Mitsotakis for example. He's immature, incompetent, weak and reactionary. As I said, to be he resembles a rich but not so intelligent 16-year old Winchester College schoolboy or a member of a University Conservative Association.

If Sunak does somehow win, it says very, very bad things about the contemporary UK, it will give us an image of a country so obsessed with keeping foreigners out and anti-wokery that it's prepared to let our public services, including the NHS, to slide into rack and ruin.

And if the Tories win again now (when their popularity is lower than it's been at any time since the mid-90s) then one wonders will they ever lose? Or will the media and online propaganda machine just get them in again, and again, and again and we'll end up like Singapore - i.e. a country with elections but a country where propaganda allows the same party to reign continuously for 50+ years?

For the good of democracy the Tories absolutely have to lose this year. They have disproportionate power and influence and this needs to be tempered. And if (as I think he will) Starmer gets in, we absolutely have to ditch the undemocratic first past the post system. I hope he has the strength to do this, together with the intelligence to realise that Labour will play a role in government far more often under a more democratic voting system.

 

[AlistairCowell]

I do fear, that like in 1992, labour won’t win. It’s Labour’s election to lose, let’s hope they don’t have a Sheffield Rally in the diary!

This is a 'Tory Rally' back in '92 where celebs were invited to see John Major
just four days before the General Election 92 (not my photo):

 

[E27007]

2024 is a year of Elections, not only the UK and USA, over 40% of the world population in around 70 countries will have the opportunity to vote and elect governments, take a firm grip passengers, hold onto the rails, the ship is changing course.

 

[PGAT]

Looks like May 2024 GE has been ruled out

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Looks like May 2024 GE has been ruled out

He could be bluffing to try to wrong-foot the other parties; catch them unprepared with a snap election?

 

[Blindtraveler]

I think they're waiting to see if they can get a inflation down to below 5% or preferably nearer to 3% which would put them in a very strong position at the ballot box, I know that I could certainly overlook a lot of the crap if they'd actually delivered on a key policy, energy bills might also well be in the spotlight again soon

 

[Hadders]

The 1992 Labour Rally in Sheffield

 

[brad465]

My predictions for 2024:

Death and state funeral of the former US president Jimmy Carter.

See I would say this is a given, but he went into hospice care early last year and is still going (although he looked extremely frail at his wife's funeral).

 

[nw1]

I think they're waiting to see if they can get a inflation down to below 5% or preferably nearer to 3% which would put them in a very strong position at the ballot box, I know that I could certainly overlook a lot of the crap if they'd actually delivered on a key policy, energy bills might also well be in the spotlight again soon

I'm not sure about that. It would make them seem less bad - but would lowering inflation really be enough to make up for the stuff from the last 4 years and in particular the last 18 months or so? They'd still be a party more interested in stopping immigration and rooting out "wokery" from the public sector than actually doing anything to fix the NHS (or, indeed, the railways - bit of a side issue I know but of relevance to this forum). They'd still be a government unafraid to install hard-right-wingers such as Braverman (now gone but in office for a year), Anderson, McVey and Cleverly into high positions.

Any lowering of inflation in any case will surely be down to global events. Unless it introduces left-wing policies to limit the cost of such products to the consumer by making up the shortfall itself, I doubt the government can do very much to influence globally-driven energy and food prices.

 

[Typhoon]

It will be longer than 2023!

If you look at the opinion polls in the 12 months or so leading up to 1992, the Tories were frequently equal or even ahead - the replacement of Thatcher by Major made a big difference and people saw Major as more moderate, a safe pair of hands.

Spitting Image's 'grey man' image did a lot to help him, I believe - 'Peas are good tonight dear'. You could imagine him living in a great many residential streets in the country, saying 'Good morning' as you pass him by. Norma collecting for at some worthy charity's flag day. Either of them ahead of you in the queue for the post office. They came across as 'nice'. Sunak's wealth will always be a hindrance - 'He doesn't understand'.

 

[The Ham]

I'm not sure about that. It would make them seem less bad - but would lowering inflation really be enough to make up for the stuff from the last 4 years and in particular the last 18 months or so? They'd still be a party more interested in stopping immigration and rooting out "wokery" from the public sector than actually doing anything to fix the NHS (or, indeed, the railways - bit of a side issue I know but of relevance to this forum). They'd still be a government unafraid to install hard-right-wingers such as Braverman (now gone but in office for a year), Anderson, McVey and Cleverly into high positions.

Any lowering of inflation in any case will surely be down to global events. Unless it introduces left-wing policies to limit the cost of such products to the consumer by making up the shortfall itself, I doubt the government can do very much to influence globally-driven energy and food prices.

To put some numbers on immigration there's about 40,000 illegal immigrants vs 720,000 total. Even if they could stop all the boats they'd only reduce immigration by 5.5%.

If the rest 263,000 were due to being here for studying (the vast majority subsidising the UK students at university by paying very much higher fees than British students).

There's also a question of how many of those on long term sickness benefits could be in work (and so the UK would need fewer people coming here to work) if the NHS was in a better shape.

My prediction is that the Tories will want us to not think about such data, and will not change their tune in 2024.

Although, their supporters may start to shift their views if The Telegraph shifts it's under the control of their new financial backers.

 

[nw1]

To put some numbers on immigration there's about 40,000 illegal immigrants vs 720,000 total. Even if they could stop all the boats they'd only reduce immigration by 5.5%.

If the rest 263,000 were due to being here for studying (the vast majority subsidising the UK students at university by paying very much higher fees than British students).

There's also a question of how many of those on long term sickness benefits could be in work (and so the UK would need fewer people coming here to work) if the NHS was in a better shape.

My prediction is that the Tories will want us to not think about such data, and will not change their tune in 2024.

Although, their supporters may start to shift their views if The Telegraph shifts it's under the control of their new financial backers.

I do wonder about the Telegraph, it seemed to lead with an almost-sympathetic-to-Starmer story in early December, when they had an interview with him.

Maybe as an "old-style Conservative" paper, even the Telegraph has grown impatient about Sunak's incompetence and the reactionary-right tendency of his government.

 

[317 forever]

Sticking with politics
UK - October general election with Labour winning an outright majority, seat breakdown approximately:
Labour - 350
Tories - 210
Lib Dem - 35
SNP - 30
Others - 25

US - Trump gets the Republican nomination, Biden wins the election with an increased share of the vote compared to 2020 and 300+ electoral college votes. Trump will once again refuse to accept the result.

With Keir Starmer and Ed Davey having less charisma than Tony Blair and Paddy Ashdown, I am inclined to agree with your prediction of their parties landing fewer seats than in 1997.

This prediction of the SNP retaining 30 seats means that Nicola Sturgeon's legacy of transforming the SNP into the majority party for Scottish MPs would live on.

 

[Acfb]

I'm not sure about the Lib Dems TBH but I do still think they should get about 40 MPs (compared with 46 in 1997) even if they don't gain much vote share on 2019. They will probably win some seats they didn't win in 1997 such as Cheadle, Wimbledon, Eastbourne, Wantage, Henley, Woking, Wokingham, Guildford, Esher and Walton, Godalming, St Albans, Berkhamstead/Harpenden plus marginals such as Eastleigh, Winchester, Hazel Grove, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Carshalton and Wallington. Michael Gove and Nadhim Zahawi's seats can't be ruled out for Portillo moments either or even Tunbridge Wells.

This is basically a reverse 2015 scenario, if they gain about 27 seats from the Tories and a couple from the SNP in Scotland.

I think the SNP will be lucky to hold 20 seats now so I will be astonished if the Lib Dems are not the third party even if they underperform.

 

[The Ham]

I'm not sure about the Lib Dems TBH but I do still think they should get about 40 MPs (compared with 46 in 1997) even if they don't gain much vote share on 2019. They will probably win some seats they didn't win in 1997 such as Cheadle, Wimbledon, Eastbourne, Wantage, Henley, Woking, Wokingham, Guildford, Esher and Walton, Godalming, St Albans, Berkhamstead/Harpenden plus marginals such as Eastleigh, Winchester, Hazel Grove, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Carshalton and Wallington. Michael Gove and Nadhim Zahawi's seats can't be ruled out for Portillo moments either or even Tunbridge Wells.

This is basically a reverse 2015 scenario, if they gain about 27 seats from the Tories and a couple from the SNP in Scotland.

I think the SNP will be lucky to hold 20 seats now so I will be astonished if the Lib Dems are not the third party even if they underperform.

Whilst there's quite a few who are still unhappy about the Lib Dems over student loans, I suspect that they are being let off a lot given their feelings over the current government.

In the early part of Austerity quite a lot of people were thinking it was a good idea, probably thinking "look at those wasteful Labour consoles they could do with cutting back a bit", the problem is that many in the blue wall are now finding that they are having to pay more for services.

That may not be direct payments, but could be things like having to go further to go to a library. Either way it's impacting them directly.

It's not a big thing compared to the NHS, but it's the sort of thing which could tip the balance.

It wasn't that long ago when my local MP had a majority even after cancelling out the votes for other parties. The last District Council election was won by an independent, the one before was only just won by the Tory candidate with a few percent more than the Lib Candidate. Whilst local electrics are different, again it wasn't that long ago when the Tory candidate would have won with ease.

The fact that Surrey is looking distinctly more yellow than it has ever done in the past is likely to have some impact on other areas too (not that Surrey or it's residents are better than other areas, but rather of somewhere which is generally seen as cautious is switching away from what has been seen as the safe bet, then maybe it's not so risky to try that too).

 

[KashmireHawker]

In being the political man I am, the Local, Mayoral and PCC Elections will see Labour gain in most places.

Key Mayoralities to watch outside London are here in the West Midlands, Tees Valley - which are the only 2 Tory Metro Mayors and the new Mayor of York and North Yorkshire. If the Tories lose two of those, then Sunak has big problems.

One council to watch is Bristol, which has an all-out election and there city Mayor has been scrapped for a return to a Cabinet system. Think the Greens have a very strong chance of being largest party or even sneak a Majority, with people tired of Marvin Reeves tenure.

And seeing as I am running for Penn ward, Wolverhampton for a second straight year, I know I have a decent chance. Seeing however I lost by 46 votes last year, I won’t believe anything until the returning officer declares the result!

When it comes to the General - whenever it is, I think Labour will win but not sure at all whether it will be as largest party or with a majority.

This is thanks to them needing to gain 120+ seats on new boundaries, just to win a Majority of 1.

Think Scotland will be a big factor and if the Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-Election result is repeated across the central belt, then that could be the clincher for Starmer.

Outside of Politics, I think the UK with Olly Alexander has a great shot of winning Eurovision and England have a fine chance of winning the Men’s Euros, if Kane and Bellingham can continue there fantastic form.

On the railways; if Labour wins, Avanti West Coast will be brought in house as quickly as possible.

And for me personally, I very much believe I will break my 10K record of 59:45 at some point!

 

[nw1]

Think Scotland will be a big factor and if the Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-Election result is repeated across the central belt, then that could be the clincher for Starmer.

I'm not sure Scotland is so important - the real aim of Starmer should be to minimise the number of Tory-held seats and to do that he needs to focus very much on England (particularly the North, Midlands and larger towns in the South) and the small number of Tory gains last time in Wales.

 

[telstarbox]

Lots of the SNP seats are very marginal though - look how many they lost in 2017.

 

[KashmireHawker]

Lots of the SNP seats are very marginal though - look how many they lost in 2017.

Precisely and Labour need a big wedge of seats in Scotland to win.

 

[nw1]

Precisely and Labour need a big wedge of seats in Scotland to win.

Is it really so important though?

If Labour make good gains in England and Wales and the SNP hold Scotland, you still end up with Labour getting considerably more than the Tories even if they don't quite get a majority.

You're still going to get a Labour-led government, and indeed, the resulting coalition is going to end up better in many ways, e.g. with the Lib Dems in coalition you'll see renewed pressure to ditch the Tory-favouring first past the post system.

So I really don't think Labour need to be expending that much effort in Scotland, given that the SNP already has some quite favourable political tendencies for Labour voters. As I said, northern England, the Midlands, north-east Wales and Tory-Labour marginals in the south (mostly large non-university towns) are what they should be focusing on; the overriding goal must be to reduce the number of Tory-held seats.