22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[Crossover]

Elsewhere only 65 deaths today (down from 104 Monday last week) and England hospital admissions are below 8,000, while admissions nationally are down 30% over the previous 7 days, which is increasing as a % change in defiance of exponential decay, so this rapidly improving picture is continuing. Johnson did also acknowledge in the press conference that infections will go up with schools reopening but also the role of vaccine immunity in ensuring that's acceptable, so at least he seems to be defiant from extreme SAGE narratives right now.

Further to which, the weekly deaths by reported date (Tuesday to Monday) has fallen from 2196 (W/E 01/03) to 1441 (W/E 08/03)

 

[Eyersey468]

Faecestious, surely?!

Sorry did I spell it wrong?
On a serious note it has been a concern of mine from the beginning will this be the default position now, every time something threatening comes along will there be calls for another lockdown?

 

[DB]

On a serious note it has been a concern of mine from the beginning will this be the default position now, every time something threatening comes along will there be calls for another lockdown?

I agree, and those in favour of lockdowns seem to have managed to get the public to accept that they work - when actually a comparison between level of restrictions and the outcome across countries (and states in the US) shows no such pattern.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Johnson did also acknowledge in the press conference that infections will go up with schools reopening but also the role of vaccine immunity in ensuring that's acceptable, so at least he seems to be defiant from extreme SAGE narratives right now.

He wouldn't have had to worry at all (or barely worry anyway) had England taken the Welsh attitude towards reopening schools but that's crossing the line between this and the "Return to Education" thread.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

He wouldn't have had to worry at all (or barely worry anyway) had England taken the Welsh attitude towards reopening schools but that's crossing the line between this and the "Return to Education" thread.

Wales and Scotland are delaying the inevitable. I'm not sure what the issue is anyway considering 42% of all UK adults have received a vaccination now, and the clinically extremely vulnerable are now vaccinated.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Further to which, the weekly deaths by reported date (Tuesday to Monday) has fallen from 2196 (W/E 01/03) to 1441 (W/E 08/03)

Jenny Harries shows slides and of course says there heading in the right direction but NHS is still under huge stress. Can't even water down the words despite numbers are now around 20% of the January peak. Not sure this lot will be happy even if its zero.

 

[35B]

Inflation will almost certainly rise shortly. You can already see it in the higher prices being charged for accommodation, particularly in tourist spots, once lockdown is expected to end. I would expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be 'tweaked' in the near future to remove or reduce elements such as 'Restaurants and Hotels' and 'Recreation and Culture' shortly, so as to ensure the CPI doesn't rise too much.

But CPI is a basket of goods and services, so the effect of those price rises has to be set against the rest of the economy. And as they aren't the dominant part of our spending, the impact will be diluted.

As for the rises in those places, how real are they?

 

[bramling]

Sorry did I spell it wrong?
On a serious note it has been a concern of mine from the beginning will this be the default position now, every time something threatening comes along will there be calls for another lockdown?

This is one of the biggest longer-term problems.

The only justification for a lockdown is when there’s a serious emergency situation, and only to buy time whilst the house is put in order. It’s incredible that we’ve effectively looked the other way and allowed it to become a normalised policy tool - largely thanks to measures like furloughing.

Squaring this one up is going to prove, I think, virtually impossible - especially for countries who don’t have a constitution. America could perhaps find a way of making the measure unconstitutional. We can’t readily do that. The genie is out of the bottle, the best hope is we don’t have any bad health scares for the next few years, such that this chapter in our history fades to the back of the mind. Time is probably the best healing device in that.

 

[Carlisle]

On a serious note it has been a concern of mine from the beginning will this be the default position now, every time something threatening comes along will there be calls for another lockdown?

Yes, that seems quite possible.
The process of shutting everything down & associated support must now be well understood & could presumably be rejuvenated quickly at any given time providing government was willing to pay

 

[bramling]

But CPI is a basket of goods and services, so the effect of those price rises has to be set against the rest of the economy. And as they aren't the dominant part of our spending, the impact will be diluted.

As for the rises in those places, how real are they?

Very real for hotels! I’ve seen some pretty spectacular increases in hotel rates over the last couple of months. Okay to be fair some stuff like Premier Inns were priced artificially cheaply, however your stereotypical small hotel is bound to have gone up if one tries to book something now.

I’d say it’s pretty inevitable. Why would a business keep prices down when they have almost guaranteed high demand over the summer, and a load of lost revenue to recover. Costs may too be higher - especially if for example there’s still a requirement to space out tables in restaurants or do extra cleaning.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

BoJo reiterates we have to be driven by the data but won't tell us what the data is. Several journos raising the issue that metrics are better than your models so why aren't you reconsidering the dates. Says people are quite happy with caution and there will be no acceleration. Nice to see journos raising it now shows the pendulum is swinging but too early in the month to expect anything but did detect a hint of at least acknowledgement in BoJo that metrics are better.

 

[bramling]

BoJo reiterates we have to be driven by the data but won't tell us what the data is. Several journos raising the issue that metrics are better than your models so why aren't you reconsidering the dates. Says people are quite happy with caution and there will be no acceleration. Nice to see journos raising it now shows the pendulum is swinging but too early in the month to expect anything but did detect a hint of at least acknowledgement in BoJo that metrics are better.

Another cop out. “Driven by the data” is no better than “follow the science”. I thought we appointed politicians capable or actually analysing data?

 

[Eyersey468]

Another thing I can see happening is some sectors being near impossible to get backing for a new start up for years as the confidence won't be there

 

[Baxenden Bank]

BoJo reiterates we have to be driven by the data but won't tell us what the data is. Several journos raising the issue that metrics are better than your models so why aren't you reconsidering the dates. Says people are quite happy with caution and there will be no acceleration. Nice to see journos raising it now shows the pendulum is swinging but too early in the month to expect anything but did detect a hint of at least acknowledgement in BoJo that metrics are better.

Which people are happy with caution? The furloughed where the employer tops up to 100% and the financially secure (high level) public sector workers like the rotating panel of experts at the briefings, who will have been minimally impacted over the past 12 months, save for not being able to legally visit their second (and third) homes.

 

[Freightmaster]

BoJo reiterates we have to be driven by the data but won't tell us what the data is. Several journos raising the issue that metrics are better than your models so why aren't you reconsidering the dates. Says people are quite happy with caution and there will be no acceleration. Nice to see journos raising it now shows the pendulum is swinging but too early in the month to expect anything but did detect a hint of at least acknowledgement in BoJo that metrics are better.

What 'people' would that be???

Certainly not the almost 50% of adults who have been vaccinated to date, that's for sure!!




MARK

 

[TheSel]

... I thought we appointed politicians capable of actually analysing data?

Where and when did you acquire this optimism!? Not from recent UK political history, that's for sure!

 

[bramling]

Another thing I can see happening is some sectors being near impossible to get backing for a new start up for years as the confidence won't be there

Not to mention difficulties with having to plan for disruptions to business continuity. Not just hospitality, but non-essential shops too.

 

[DustyBin]

I'm starting to wish I'd voted for Long-Bailey. She was a profoundly useless waste of space, but at least there was no danger of anybody listening to her.

Yes, at least Wrong-Daily would have given us all a laugh!

 

[bramling]

Yes, at least Wrong-Daily would have given us all a laugh!

Yes she might actually have managed to do what BJ attempts. If BJ was ever funny then he isn’t now.

 

[Watershed]

Not to mention difficulties with having to plan for disruptions to business continuity. Not just hospitality, but non-essential shops too.

This also has a secondary issue in that - who is going to want to invest large sums into the UK any more, given how the various devolved and national governments have shown their willingness to utterly destroy businesses whilst giving them miserly loans, not even grants, to make up for it?

It is really no better than exproporation through the back door.

 

[bramling]

This also has a secondary issue in that - who is going to want to invest large sums into the UK any more, given how the various devolved and national governments have shown their willingness to utterly destroy businesses whilst giving them miserly loans, not even grants, to make up for it?

It is really no better than exproporation through the back door.

The fragmented response has been highly unsatisfactory, however dealing with that I suspect will be firmly filed in the “too difficult” box.

I can see no real justification for Scotland and Wales being misaligned with England on pandemic policy. As ever NI is a more special case because of the ROI border.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Another cop out. “Driven by the data” is no better than “follow the science”. I thought we appointed politicians capable or actually analysing data?

Agreed but the real issue is they are deliberately withholding what data thresholds they are looking for and journos just seem to be totally accepting of the situation. As i say no ones going to budge them for at least a couple of weeks until they see return of education hasn't caused a rise in hospital admissions.

 

[Class 33]

Jenny Harries shows slides and of course says there heading in the right direction but NHS is still under huge stress. Can't even water down the words despite numbers are now around 20% of the January peak. Not sure this lot will be happy even if its zero.

Yes, getting very tiring now hearing comments like "The NHS is still under a great deal of pressure.", "There are still 10,898 people in hospital with Coronavirus. That number is still far too high." from the likes of Johnson, Hancock, Harries, Stevens, etc. Wish they'd lay off that now. The numbers in hospital have tumbled about 80% since the January peak, and are falling by about 600 per day. How much more lower do they have to go for them to stop saying this?!

 

[MP33]

I watched the press conference and the Q and A session is to ask about the road map, not the Royal Family or Brexit.

 

[Domh245]

Yes, getting very tiring now hearing comments like "The NHS is still under a great deal of pressure.", "There are still 10,898 people in hospital with Coronavirus. That number is still far too high." from the likes of Johnson, Hancock, Harries, Stevens, etc. Wish they'd lay off that now. The numbers in hospital have tumbled about 80% since the January peak, and are falling by about 600 per day. How much more lower do they have to go for them to stop saying this?!

At least 1000 or so lower in ICUs - at the sort of rate that ICU occupancy was falling, it'll be around the end of next week before we hit that normal level of ICU occupancy

 

[Class 33]

I watched the press conference and the Q and A session is to ask about the road map, not the Royal Family or Brexit.

Yes it's absolutely ridiculous. And there was questions about the spending of decorating Johnson's House, the Northern Ireland Protocol, NHS pay rises. They really need to clamp down on all this asking totally off topic questions.

 

[ChrisC]

Very real for hotels! I’ve seen some pretty spectacular increases in hotel rates over the last couple of months. Okay to be fair some stuff like Premier Inns were priced artificially cheaply, however your stereotypical small hotel is bound to have gone up if one tries to book something now.

I’d say it’s pretty inevitable. Why would a business keep prices down when they have almost guaranteed high demand over the summer, and a load of lost revenue to recover. Costs may too be higher - especially if for example there’s still a requirement to space out tables in restaurants or do extra cleaning.

Exactly 2 weeks ago today I booked a 7 night stay in the Premier Inn in Penzance for the beginning of October. The price at £343 for a fully flexible rate I thought was very reasonable. I’ve just had a look today out of curiosity to see if the price has risen a little since I booked and it is now £957! I would call that a pretty spectacular increase. In contrast to this many hotels in less attractive non tourist locations are unusually cheap this summer.

 

[Wychwood93]

I watched the press conference and the Q and A session is to ask about the road map, not the Royal Family or Brexit.

Agree with that - the media do this every time. Surprised they do not chuck in 'what do you fancy for the Derby this year?' I, like many, have given up watching these 'shows' on a regular basis. Their grasp of the statistics, which are available to us all, is somewhat thin. Even the medical/scientific people are pretty poor at presentation and analysis. The 'latest' 7-day averages are, as we know, normally about six days behind. They will at times mention this, but should perhaps add that the daily figures since that date have continued to show a downward trend. Being good with statistics I find this very frustrating.

 

[Bald Rick]

Andrew Bailey himself has now said there are BoE concerns about rising inflation as restrictions are being eased, and while I have many reservations about him as the chair and their monetary policy, if the institution as a whole is concerned then it's certainly a possibility inflation will cause problems in due course:

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To be fair, that article says the BoE is considering scenarios of increasing inflation, but also scenarios where inflation isn’t an issue. It is also looking at ways of getting inflation back up to the 2% target without stifling growth post pandemic or increasing government borrowing costs significantly. Unwinding some of the quantitative easing is a possibility (probability) in that event.

 

[brad465]

What 'people' would that be???

Certainly not the almost 50% of adults who have been vaccinated to date, that's for sure!!

Yes I saw a well reported ONS survey that around 4 in 10 of those over 80 may have been flouting lockdown rules since receiving their vaccine. I can't see that proportion going any lower as it works down the age ranges.