22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[GodAtum]

Great to see schools back today, but still lots of kids causing trouble on public transport!

 

[DustyBin]

There are benefits of working in the public sector, more holidays, better (perceived anyway) job security, grades and progression mean pay rises are at least predictable (compared to the private sector companies I've worked for anyway which have all been small, large companies will probably be different).

Of course some people have a sense of service, some will feel inertia, in other words there are many reasons.

I've no doubt whatsoever that this is all true, therefore isn't it a case of people deciding what their priorities are?

 

[yorkie]

Lots of interesting discussions going on here but can I ask for anyone who wishes to discuss private vs public sector, NHS pay, or any other topic, to please create a new thread (if there isn't one already).

Thanks

 

[Class 33]

Headline from Sky News

Boris Johnson press conference later after SAGE scientist warns cases will rise as England lockdown eased​

Yes cases may rise due to schools going back, but this will not lead to more hospital admissions and deaths as that link has been broken now!

 

[Crossover]

SAGE scientist

Can someone put them back in their box now

 

[STINT47]

I wonder if they'll have found a new variant by the time of the press conference?

 

[Mag_seven]

Headline from Sky News

Boris Johnson press conference later after SAGE scientist warns cases will rise as England lockdown eased​

SAGE scientist warns that the pope is a catholic.

Of course they will rise but with the most vulnerable vaccinated deaths and hospital admissions should not. I'm sick to death of Sky and the BBC with their scaremongering headlines.

 

[ChrisC]

Headline from Sky News

Boris Johnson press conference later after SAGE scientist warns cases will rise as England lockdown eased​

Yes cases may rise due to schools going back, but this will not lead to more hospital admissions and deaths as that link has been broken now!

This may well happen on a small scale in these first stages of easing the lockdown, but as more and more people have both doses of the vaccine this should decrease.
I had my first jab 10 days ago and will receive my second one half way through May. From the beginning of June I intend to go back to living a near normal life. By then I will have gone 15 months of not seeing friends, not going into busy places, not using public transport etc. Just like flu, colds and other seasonal illnesses, once we have been vaccinated, we just have to live with it and enjoy life. I’m only in my early 60’s but still feel that a whole year of what I have left has been wasted.

 

[Dent]

SAGE scientist warns that the pope is a catholic.

Of course they will rise but with the most vulnerable vaccinated deaths and hospital admissions should not. I'm sick to death of Sky and the BBC with their scaremongering headlines.

They won't necessarily rise anyway, they didn't last summer.

 

[Eyersey468]

SAGE scientist warns that the pope is a catholic.

Of course they will rise but with the most vulnerable vaccinated deaths and hospital admissions should not. I'm sick to death of Sky and the BBC with their scaremongering headlines.

You and me both, I have had enough of the press and their scaremongering

 

[DB]

Headline from Sky News

Boris Johnson press conference later after SAGE scientist warns cases will rise as England lockdown eased​

Yes cases may rise due to schools going back, but this will not lead to more hospital admissions and deaths as that link has been broken now!

Why do we need press conference to speculate on something which might happen (but probably won't, with the numbers now vaccinated)?

 

[Ianno87]

Why do we need press conference to speculate on something which might happen (but probably won't, with the numbers now vaccinated)?

If there's a "don't be worried if it does increase, that's what we'd expect to happen and we don't think it's a cause for concern" message, seems reasonable.

Trouble is, in a few weeks time there'll no doubt be people shouting loudly if case numbers have risen, who probably need some "expectation setting" now.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Why do we need press conference to speculate on something which might happen (but probably won't, with the numbers now vaccinated)?

That's probably not what the press conference will be about. It's a classic headline trick to use phrases like "after" or "as" to imply an actual connection between two events, when really they just took place near each other in time or place.

 

[Bantamzen]

Oh boy, Labour pin-up model & part time politician Keir Starmer is hunting another extension to lockdown:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56318750

Plans to ease lockdown should be delayed if necessary to keep children in school, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has said.

Pupils across England are returning to school today for the first time in two months, as part of the first stage of lifting lockdown rules.

But if reopening schools leads to coronavirus infection rates creeping up there may be a need for "other measures to be put back a bit", Sir Keir says.

On a visit to a school in east London, Sir Keir adds that "schools have to be the priority" and that delaying other measures to keep schools open is "a price I think we need to pay".

He also says the government may need to "look more closely" at its plan to regularly test school children for Covid, "to make sure it works". Sir Keir says there's a danger that lots of classes or groups of pupils will have to self-isolate as a result of individuals testing positive.

Labour's call in January for teachers to be prioritised for vaccinations was to "make sure we didn't have that experience," he adds.

So having attempted & failed to delay school openings, he now wants everyone else to suffer.

 

[Eyersey468]

Oh boy, Labour pin-up model & part time politician Keir Starmer is hunting another extension to lockdown:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56318750

So having attempted & failed to delay school openings, he now wants everyone else to suffer.

There's a surprise

 

[bramling]

Headline from Sky News

Boris Johnson press conference later after SAGE scientist warns cases will rise as England lockdown eased​

Yes cases may rise due to schools going back, but this will not lead to more hospital admissions and deaths as that link has been broken now!

A perfect opportunity for some honest expectation management, which is one expects from a leader worthy of the name. Not holding my breath...

 

[Ediswan]

That's probably not what the press conference will be about. It's a classic headline trick to use phrases like "after" or "as" to imply an actual connection between two events, when really they just took place near each other in time or place.

I agree that happens, a lot. But the way "after" is used in that headline would have the SAGE scientist's warning itself be the cause of cases rising.

Eventually, there will be a rise in cases. Zero is not achieveable. A low but absolutely steady case rate is highly unlikely. Hence, the occasional small rise is all but certain. If you look at the MSOA statistics (which for me is a local council ward), the absolute case numbers are already so low that some areas are going up one week, then down the next.

Interactive map

Oh boy, Labour pin-up model & part time politician Keir Starmer is hunting another extension to lockdown:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56318750

Be wary of linking to "Live" pages like that, the headline changes every few minutes.

 

[Bantamzen]

Be wary of linking to "Live" pages like that, the headline changes every few minutes.

Hence the reason for quoting the text.

 

[Cdd89]

I think Starmer has badly misjudged the mood here to be honest. I know he said "if necessary", but under what circumstances could it possibly be necessary, when we are currently offering vaccinations to those aged 56+, a number which will almost certainly be 50+ by the time the next phase of unlocking would be due?

A very large number of people are now breaking the law in discreet ways (which, incidentally, should be reason enough not to have legal restrictions on safer controlled environments like restaurants - but such is the folly of lockdown), and everyone I know is counting down the days to each phase of unlocking.

 

[brad465]

I continue to think that we have a serious problem brewing. Inflation seems all but inevitable, yet a significant proportion of society seems to only work on the basis of debt. Raising interest rates to control inflation would be a serious problem. But high inflation is equally problematic.



I likewise reckon a lot of people think this is all over when the pubs re-open. It isn't; we're already seeing some of the longer term consequences starting to be felt, and there's plenty more where that came from.

Why do you think inflation is inevitable? I'm not going to claim to be well read in economics so it's a genuine question as would like to understand more about it. I get the reason for raising interest rates if inflation gets too high and why it's also problematic.

If we work on the basis that changes in price can be influenced by changes in demand, changes in supply or external factors, looking at each of those in turn I think there's going to be the right conditions for prices to rise. Firstly, an increase in demand when lockdown eases - look no further than my hotel bookings for this summer for an example of that in action! Then we have the legacy of reductions in supply as a result of restrictions themselves (eg businesses unable to operate at full production due to social distancing / furloughing of staff in response to falls in demand) or the consequences of restrictions (i.e. businesses which have already or will have ceased trading). Then there's increased costs for businesses, again as a result of social distancing and restrictions. I suspect there will also be businesses who will need to increase prices simply in order to make ends meet after having endured a year of costs but received reduced, little or even no revenue. Add in quantitative easing on top of that.

I simply think all the conditions will meet at the same time. Even if this only applies for a relatively short time, it could be enough to cause a spiral.

@brad465 and @bramling have answered from a conservative, relatively monetarist, perspective. I largely agree with their analysis, but think they discount the constraints of under and unemployment at a macroeconomic level on firms ability to raise prices.

At a theoretical level, adherents of “Modern Monetary Theory” argue that these are not inflationary pressures, and that the debt being of government to government in a fiat currency means that the risk of inflation can be discounted. Their arguments are of interest, especially given the limited inflationary impact of QE since 2008.

I'm not sure unemployment is going to be the central issue. We haven't thus far seen a mass-drop-off-a-cliff in terms of job losses, just a gradual drip-drip-drip of business failures -- to be fair at least some of which were possibly already dodgy (something like Debenhams being the classic example, Ian Allan Bookshop another).

I guess time will tell, however I can't see how we're going to avoid a situation where firms knock up prices in order to offset losses and added costs from the last year, which will almost certainly combine with a period where pent-up demand exists. How long this situation exists for will perhaps be the determining question.

Andrew Bailey himself has now said there are BoE concerns about rising inflation as restrictions are being eased, and while I have many reservations about him as the chair and their monetary policy, if the institution as a whole is concerned then it's certainly a possibility inflation will cause problems in due course:

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[yorksrob]

Oh boy, Labour pin-up model & part time politician Keir Starmer is hunting another extension to lockdown:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56318750

So having attempted & failed to delay school openings, he now wants everyone else to suffer.

Labour are a waste of space. A wet lettuce would make a better opposition.

 

[TheSel]

Andrew Bailey himself has now said there are BoE concerns about rising inflation as restrictions are being eased, and while I have many reservations about him as the chair and their monetary policy, if the institution as a whole is concerned then it's certainly a possibility inflation will cause problems in due course:

Inflation will almost certainly rise shortly. You can already see it in the higher prices being charged for accommodation, particularly in tourist spots, once lockdown is expected to end. I would expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be 'tweaked' in the near future to remove or reduce elements such as 'Restaurants and Hotels' and 'Recreation and Culture' shortly, so as to ensure the CPI doesn't rise too much.

 

[duncanp]

Oh boy, Labour pin-up model & part time politician Keir Starmer is hunting another extension to lockdown:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56318750

So having attempted & failed to delay school openings, he now wants everyone else to suffer.

Don't you mean Sir Keir Bandwagon, the leader of the opposition?

I'm surprised that a "SAGE scientist" hasn't "warned" that bears usually go and defecate in the woods as well.

 

[DB]

I'm surprised that a "SAGE scientist" hasn't "warned" that bears usually go and defecate in the woods as well.

That'll have been saved for the press conference...

 

[Scotrail12]

Labour are a waste of space. A wet lettuce would make a better opposition.

Completely right. A bit sick of Captain Hindsight who provides nothing useful except for the now tired lines of 'we needed to lockdown harder, longer, stronger, earlier' yet when push comes to shove, he just goes along with the government anyway.

 

[bramling]

Completely right. A bit sick of Captain Hindsight who provides nothing useful except for the now tired lines of 'we needed to lockdown harder, longer, stronger, earlier' yet when push comes to shove, he just goes along with the government anyway.

They’re all useless. The only opposition at the moment are the group of Conservative back benchers.

 

[Eyersey468]

Don't you mean Sir Keir Bandwagon, the leader of the opposition?

I'm surprised that a "SAGE scientist" hasn't "warned" that bears usually go and defecate in the woods as well.

What! Bears defecate in the woods! We must have another lockdown to stop this from happening!



Yes I'm being facetious

 

[brad465]

Completely right. A bit sick of Captain Hindsight who provides nothing useful except for the now tired lines of 'we needed to lockdown harder, longer, stronger, earlier' yet when push comes to shove, he just goes along with the government anyway.

The Captain Hindsight remark is dead, as, even though I do not agree with any of the decisions around imposing lockdowns and harsher restrictions, Starmer has often called for them before Johnson ended up imposing them, which is easy to foresee because Johnson cannot make a rational decision based on multiple options, so waits until there is only one option to make, regardless of how effective it is (he done it with the Brexit deal and with imposing lockdowns). That doesn't mean Starmer is correct, there are many things he's not considered, but my point is the idea he's calling for things in hindsight is incorrect.

Elsewhere only 65 deaths today (down from 104 Monday last week) and England hospital patients are below 8,000, while admissions nationally are down 30% over the previous 7 days, which is increasing as a % change in defiance of exponential decay, so this rapidly improving picture is continuing. Johnson did also acknowledge in the press conference that infections will go up with schools reopening but also the role of vaccine immunity in ensuring that's acceptable, so at least he seems to be defiant from extreme SAGE narratives right now.

 

[takno]

Oh boy, Labour pin-up model & part time politician Keir Starmer is hunting another extension to lockdown:

So having attempted & failed to delay school openings, he now wants everyone else to suffer.

I'm starting to wish I'd voted for Long-Bailey. She was a profoundly useless waste of space, but at least there was no danger of anybody listening to her.

 

[DB]

Yes I'm being facetious

Faecestious, surely?!