22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[DustyBin]

Personally, I'm just utterly broken by it all to the point of indifference. I'm not enjoying it at all, and certainly don't want it to continue, but seeing as "I'm alright Jack" is the flavour of the year, and I'm alright*, I don't particularly care if it goes on longer or not. When I'm also feeling personally failed by society, it's tricky to care about it's long term success as well!

*I've no financial worries, and I've got things to do that mostly fill my time. "Alright" by most other metrics, I certainly am not

I can relate to this and I actually sympathise with you. It's tempting to say "sod it" at times but the issues we're facing are too serious and will catch up with most of us eventually.

 

[Cdd89]

I think it’s a perfect confluence. You have the selfish (“I’m alright jack”) types who think only of themselves and aren’t personally suffering (or may even be net benefiting); then you have what I would term the “excessively selfless” who think everyone should be making sacrifices for everyone else all the time based on often rather simplistic premises (I think this explains a lot of the young support), and with both ends sewn up there remains a lot of vocal support for restrictions.

That said I’m increasingly convinced the vast majority are willing to accept death from future circulation of the virus as long as they don’t eclipse statistics for things we already accept, like flu deaths. Once we’re unlocked I think that argument will become a lot stronger.

 

[bramling]

I think it’s a perfect confluence. You have the selfish (“I’m alright jack”) types who think only of themselves and aren’t personally suffering (or may even be net benefiting); then you have what I would term the “excessively selfless” who think everyone should be making sacrifices for everyone else all the time based on often rather simplistic premises (I think this explains a lot of the young support), and with both ends sewn up there remains a lot of vocal support for restrictions.

Yes and you can append to the first of those that whilst they may *think* they're not personally suffering, in time they will when they find things they enjoyed before are no longer there. I can certainly relate to that with some of the business failures seen over the last year - anything which was already on slightly thinner ice has either already gone, or likely to do so.

 

[NorthOxonian]

I think it’s a perfect confluence. You have the selfish (“I’m alright jack”) types who think only of themselves and aren’t personally suffering (or may even be net benefiting); then you have what I would term the “excessively selfless” who think everyone should be making sacrifices for everyone else all the time based on often rather simplistic premises (I think this explains a lot of the young support), and with both ends sewn up there remains a lot of vocal support for restrictions.

That said I’m increasingly convinced the vast majority are willing to accept death from future circulation of the virus as long as they don’t eclipse statistics for things we already accept, like flu deaths. Once we’re unlocked I think that argument will become a lot stronger.

Oh, very much so. The "excessively selfless" lot are very good at guilt tripping people into supporting them because they like to make a big show of how virtuous they are.

For example, I read a tweet a couple of weeks back saying that even if only one life had been saved by lockdown it was worth it, and also saying that anyone who claimed the last year of their life was wasted was selfish. It made me incandescent with rage - but clearly some people liked it - it had over 100,000 likes.

 

[Bikeman78]

Whilst still purely anecdotal, I don't really have any friends or other contacts that share my interest in railways, and yet I don't know anybody who favours ongoing restrictions. I think the real question is who participates in these polls and how are the questions worded?

Yes I'm sure "would you support an extended lockdown if it saved lives" would get a different answer to "would you support an extended lockdown even if you lost your job and potentially your home?"

 

[brad465]

Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey has spoken out in Parliament against the Coronavirus act, so it looks like there is some opposition beyond the Tory backbenches (although without Labour defiance not enough).

 

[Eyersey468]

Personally, I'm just utterly broken by it all to the point of indifference. I'm not enjoying it at all, and certainly don't want it to continue, but seeing as "I'm alright Jack" is the flavour of the year, and I'm alright*, I don't particularly care if it goes on longer or not. When I'm also feeling personally failed by society, it's tricky to care about it's long term success as well!

*I've no financial worries, and I've got things to do that mostly fill my time. "Alright" by most other metrics, I certainly am not

I can also relate to this to some degree.

 

[ChrisC]

Looking around online there seems to be a fair amount of evidence that the last year has helped bolster an epidemic of agoraphobia either directly caused by lockdowns and the various messages of 'stay home / stay safe' or exacerbated by them. From a mental health perspective it's obvious the country is in deep trouble. Forget immediate need for ICU beds..these are issues that will place additional burden on the NHS for years to come.

I think this is a real serious problem and unfortunately many of these people will not get the help they need. Sadly, for many the damage has already been done and is now probably irreversible.

I know a number of elderly people, who were in the early stages of dementia, who this time last year were leading fairly normal active lives, with regular routines and support from their families. Although the condition would have slowly got worse, they could have had a few more years of fairly active life. Three people like this I know have rapidly in one year progressed to the final stages of dementia and their families have no alternative but to consider care homes. I find it very sad to hear of elderly people who are frightened to come outside their front gate. This is what the scare tactics have done.

I know of much younger people, who had various conditions which required them to be shielding, who are now absolutely terrified to leave the house. I was talking to someone yesterday who has a disabled wife only in her late 30’s and he can’t even get her out into the garden. She is in such a terrified mental state that she thinks Covid is everywhere in the air and even in the soil.

These are serious issues and consequences of the lockdowns where these people have not left their homes or had contact with other people for the last 12 months.

 

[Eyersey468]

I think this is a real serious problem and unfortunately many of these people will not get the help they need. Sadly, for many the damage has already been done and is now probably irreversible.

I know a number of elderly people, who were in the early stages of dementia, who this time last year were leading fairly normal active lives, with regular routines and support from their families. Although the condition would have slowly got worse, they could have had a few more years of fairly active life. Three people like this I know have rapidly in one year progressed to the final stages of dementia and their families have no alternative but to consider care homes. I find it very sad to hear of elderly people who are frightened to come outside their front gate. This is what the scare tactics have done.

I know of much younger people, who had various conditions which required them to be shielding, who are now absolutely terrified to leave the house. I was talking to someone yesterday who has a disabled wife only in her late 30’s and he can’t even get her out into the garden. She is in such a terrified mental state that she thinks Covid is everywhere in the air and even in the soil.

These are serious issues and consequences of the lockdowns where these people have not left their homes or had contact with other people for the last 12 months.

I agree 100%, I can see a lot of small children growing up with mental health issues as well as for the last year we have been teaching them that staying away from others is normal.

 

[kristiang85]

Interestingly Merkel has cancelled Germany's planned Easter lockdown saying 'it was a mistake' following a backlash from the public.

 

[Bantamzen]

Interestingly Merkel has cancelled Germany's planned Easter lockdown saying 'it was a mistake' following a backlash from the public.

Good, hopefully the message is starting to reach politicians fogged brains.

 

[Eyersey468]

Good, hopefully the message is starting to reach politicians fogged brains.

Let's hope so

 

[Ianno87]

I agree 100%, I can see a lot of small children growing up with mental health issues as well as for the last year we have been teaching them that staying away from others is normal.

From observation whilst out and about with my kids, a good number of parents are happy just to let their kids be kids, and let them interact normally in playgrounds etc, with only gentle encouragement (at most) of distancing etc. The most stringent I get is perhaps choosing another playground if one is excessively busy (or "we'll come back later").

There are a minority of parents (the slightly "virtue-signalling" type, who seem to just want to prove how much "better" they are than other parents), however, who seem to have petrified the hell out of their kids, masking 4-5 year olds up to high heaven, forcing them to stay away from others etc. And you can see how miserable their kids are as a result - which makes my blood boil.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

From observation whilst out and about with my kids, a good number of parents are happy just to let their kids be kids, and let them interact normally in playgrounds etc, with only gentle encouragement (at most) of distancing etc. The most stringent I get is perhaps choosing another playground if one is excessively busy (or "we'll come back later").

There are a minority of parents (the slightly "virtue-signalling" type, who seem to just want to prove how much "better" they are than other parents), however, who seem to have petrified the hell out of their kids, masking 4-5 year olds up to high heaven, forcing them to stay away from others etc. And you can see how miserable their kids are as a result - which makes my blood boil.

The primary near us has the kids running round playing with each other like nothing is going on in big groups with no evidence of parents worrying about any distancing. The only thing that reminds you all is not quite right is the parents who are mandated to wear face coverings whilst waiting at the school gates for drop off/collection The secondary lot, that are also in big groups, walk past us as well and we know someone at the school who is doing the LFT handful of cases in an 1800 school roll.

In even more positive news English hospitalisations down another 240 today to 4005 so well below 3k come the govts review in 10 days time means step 2 must be a certainty now.

 

[Dave91131]

The primary near us has the kids running round playing with each other like nothing is going on in big groups with no evidence of parents worrying about any distancing. The only thing that reminds you all is not quite right is the parents who are mandated to wear face coverings whilst waiting at the school gates for drop off/collection The secondary lot, that are also in big groups, walk past us as well and we know someone at the school who is doing the LFT handful of cases in an 1800 school roll.

In even more positive news English hospitalisations down another 240 today to 4005 so well below 3k come the govts review in 10 days time means step 2 must be a certainty now.

Does "waiting at the school gates" involve waiting on school (private) land, or the public highway?

Surely if it's the latter, the school are in no position whatsoever to mandate the wearing of face coverings.

 

[Bald Rick]

In even more positive news English hospitalisations down another 240 today to 4005 so well below 3k come the govts review in 10 days time means step 2 must be a certainty now.

Step 2 is a racing certainty.

Something odd happened with the U.K. hospital numbers today (usually reported 2-3 days behind England). Typically previous days’ numbers, for as much as 2-4 weeks prior, are revised up by 1-10 patients every day as more data comes in. Today the numbers for the last week or so were reduced by about 40.

 

[Ianno87]

Does "waiting at the school gates" involve waiting on school (private) land, or the public highway?

Surely if it's the latter, the school are in no position whatsoever to mandate the wearing of face coverings.

Usual policy is for parents to remain outside of school property.

Schools are generally "politely requesting" parents wear masks when congregating outside, but is not "mandated" as such. Although from my obersvations, parents near universally comply.

 

[Dave91131]

Usual policy is for parents to remain outside of school property.

Schools are generally "politely requesting" parents wear masks when congregating outside, but is not "mandated" as such. Although from my obersvations, parents near universally comply.

Thanks.

Far from anything even approaching universal compliance from my observations where I live. Parents with face coverings this afternoon outnumbered by those without, on a ratio of about 5:1 I'd say.

 

[Bikeman78]

I agree 100%, I can see a lot of small children growing up with mental health issues as well as for the last year we have been teaching them that staying away from others is normal.

Ha, you should meet my four year old. He doesn't understand the concept of keeping away from people and I've given up trying. The vast majority of people aren't bothered; they understand that he's an excitable little boy.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Step 2 is a racing certainty.

Something odd happened with the U.K. hospital numbers today (usually reported 2-3 days behind England). Typically previous days’ numbers, for as much as 2-4 weeks prior, are revised up by 1-10 patients every day as more data comes in. Today the numbers for the last week or so were reduced by about 40.

Ive quoted from NHS Englands daily data which as the dashboard is generally 24hrs behind.

 

[MikeWM]

Personally, I'm just utterly broken by it all to the point of indifference.

I'm somewhat similar. Compared to last summer, when I was looking forward to getting back to doing all sorts of things I'd normally do, I don't seem to have much enthusiasm at all now. I've no particular desire to emerge back into a world full of aggressive signs, endless announcements, one-way systems and masks. (I was on a GA train a couple of days ago and after every station there were 4 (!) rather aggressive automated announcements - about social distancing, masks, abandoned luggage and needing to buy a ticket. Add one before each station telling people not to congregate around the doors - and I was being wittered at for most of the journey. Worse than being on the Victoria Line!)

Also I've no desire to meet up with friends or colleagues until they've got past the stage where all they want to discuss are the events of the past year, and who knows how long that will take? I've no particular drive to return to the office either anymore, for the same reasons, which is a big contrast to last Autumn when I was actually rather attracted to the idea (although it never actually happened).

I also strongly suspect I'm very much not going to like the world we are going to have from now on. I was already disheartened by the general direction of travel over the last few years, and all those things that I thought were going wrong have been accelerated by the events of the last year. That makes it hard to have much enthusiasm for the coming months and years. I don't see that we can get back to the world of 2019 anymore, and deeply problematic as that was, I think it was a lot better than what we're going to get going forwards.

All that said, I still see the bigger picture, and will still argue strongly for the anti-lockdown cause and for personal freedom, because I still totally believe them to be the right approach.

 

[bramling]

Usual policy is for parents to remain outside of school property.

Schools are generally "politely requesting" parents wear masks when congregating outside, but is not "mandated" as such. Although from my obersvations, parents near universally comply.

There’s a primary school near me where the two entrances essentially come out on to an alley-way. For some reason I always seem to end up walking through there when it’s tip-out time, with all the parents congregating and blocking the path. I’ve had more than one under-the-breath remark about walking through there without a mask on. I’m waiting for something to be explicitly said!

I'm somewhat similar. Compared to last summer, when I was looking forward to getting back to doing all sorts of things I'd normally do, I don't seem to have much enthusiasm at all now. I've no particular desire to emerge back into a world full of aggressive signs, endless announcements, one-way systems and masks. (I was on a GA train a couple of days ago and after every station there were 4 (!) rather aggressive automated announcements - about social distancing, masks, abandoned luggage and needing to buy a ticket. Add one before each station telling people not to congregate around the doors - and I was being wittered at for most of the journey. Worse than being on the Victoria Line!)

Also I've no desire to meet up with friends or colleagues until they've got past the stage where all they want to discuss are the events of the past year, and who knows how long that will take? I've no particular drive to return to the office either anymore, for the same reasons, which is a big contrast to last Autumn when I was actually rather attracted to the idea (although it never actually happened).

I also strongly suspect I'm very much not going to like the world we are going to have from now on. I was already disheartened by the general direction of travel over the last few years, and all those things that I thought were going wrong have been accelerated by the events of the last year. That makes it hard to have much enthusiasm for the coming months and years. I don't see that we can get back to the world of 2019 anymore, and deeply problematic as that was, I think it was a lot better than what we're going to get going forwards.

All that said, I still see the bigger picture, and will still argue strongly for the anti-lockdown cause and for personal freedom, because I still totally believe them to be the right approach.

Sadly my take on things is pretty similar to the above. I think most people will on an individual level probably get back to near 2019 in terms of behaviour - albeit it’s going to take time - however there are going to be lasting issues for sure. In particular this has been a gift for people who just like to be awkward, the authoritarian types - we’re going to struggle to shake that off. Secondly there’s now a new excuse for anything - “public health reasons” is the new “security reasons”. Thirdly there’s the stuff which hasn’t come out the other end - any business which was already slightly struggling is likely to be finished.

I must admit to feeling extremely lethargic at the moment. I’m also totally disillusioned with our entire political system, to the extent that I don’t see myself voting for any of the main parties for the foreseeable future, and that could quite easily develop into ever again.

 

[Eyersey468]

Ha, you should meet my four year old. He doesn't understand the concept of keeping away from people and I've given up trying. The vast majority of people aren't bothered; they understand that he's an excitable little boy.

To be honest I'm glad to hear it, children should be allowed to be children

There’s a primary school near me where the two entrances essentially come out on to an alley-way. For some reason I always seem to end up walking through there when it’s tip-out time, with all the parents congregating and blocking the path. I’ve had more than one under-the-breath remark about walking through there without a mask on. I’m waiting for something to be explicitly said!



Sadly my take on things is pretty similar to the above. I think most people will on an individual level probably get back to near 2019 in terms of behaviour - albeit it’s going to take time - however there are going to be lasting issues for sure. In particular this has been a gift for people who just like to be awkward, the authoritarian types - we’re going to struggle to shake that off. Secondly there’s now a new excuse for anything - “public health reasons” is the new “security reasons”. Thirdly there’s the stuff which hasn’t come out the other end - any business which was already slightly struggling is likely to be finished.

I must admit to feeling extremely lethargic at the moment. I’m also totally disillusioned with our entire political system, to the extent that I don’t see myself voting for any of the main parties for the foreseeable future, and that could quite easily develop into ever again.

I agree as well, I am also unlikely to be voting for one of the main political parties certainly for the foreseeable future and quite possibly ever.

 

[Ianno87]

Ha, you should meet my four year old. He doesn't understand the concept of keeping away from people and I've given up trying. The vast majority of people aren't bothered; they understand that he's an excitable little boy.

Yes, I find that with my 4 year old too - most people are capable of understanding that he's 4 and doesn't really understand these things, and just wants to play and be friendly.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Weekly Covid infection levels from the weekly flu and covid survey. Not materially different from previous week given the govt saying cases are creeping up not showing up yet although I do note today cases above 6k for first time in many weeks.

 

[kristiang85]

Weekly Covid infection levels from the weekly flu and covid survey. Not materially different from previous week given the govt saying cases are creeping up not showing up yet although I do note today cases above 6k for first time in many weeks.

It's still pretty level, and been over 6k a few times in the past month.

Thursday 18th March - 6,303
Friday 12th March - 6,609
Thursday 11th March - 6,753
Saturday 6th March - 6,040
Thursday 4th March - 6,573
etc.

 

[brad465]

63 deaths today in a continuing downward trend, while hospital numbers are about to go under 4,000 in England and 5,000 UK-wide. Hospital admission rates seem to be stuck on exponential decay at around -20%, perhaps as the vaccine rollout hasn't quite completed the 5-9 groups yet, but numbers are considerably better nonetheless.

 

[Crossover]

while hospital numbers are about to go under 4,000 in England and 5,000 UK-wide

3,704 if memory serves correct, is today’s reported number for yesterday. It is in that ballpark, anyway

 

[Bald Rick]

3,704 if memory serves correct, is today’s reported number for yesterday. It is in that ballpark, anyway

3763 England (-26% to last week).

U.K. numbers for 23rd are 5122 (-25% to last week)

The U.K. week on week reduction has held at almost exactly 25% on average for the month so far. Assuming this rate tails off a little (as the rate of reduction in hospital admissions has), we’ll be at around 2,200 by the time Stage 2 takes effect, and around 1000 three weeks later when decisions on Stage 3 will start to be taken. And that will be an excellent result.

 

[matt]

The Covid Alert level dropped from 4 to 3 so further positive news. Level 3 is "COVID-19 epidemic is in general circulation"