22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[kez19]

The trouble is there’s still people who genuinely want all this to continue. Plenty of people “shocked” the sight of people visiting shops or pubs since Monday, “I am doing my best to try and survive, how are we going to get through this when we see people queuing outside shops?”.

I genuinely don’t get what such people expect to happen. We cannot shut life down forever.

It seems that people have totally forgotten what life was like before this, aah I know why its the constant scaremongering thats been polarised so much that it feels like its a sin and that people should be ashamed on activites that were normal before, but it hasn't helped with the likes of SAGE/media throwing it in our faces that the public must tow in fear, but wait its all a conspiracy right?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Good article in The Telegraph tonight....

Enough with the Covid gloom – the worst is behind us

Link between infections, hospitalisations and deaths has been broken – and data is even more positive than we are being told

www.telegraph.co.uk

Great article but nothing will change with the mourning period and CRG will have to stay off the radar as well until next week but still foresee Boris springing a pre local election improvement.

The DT could have used this mornings NHS figures for England hospitalisations which stand at 2057 down 623 from the figures quoted above.

 

[bramling]

It seems that people have totally forgotten what life was like before this, aah I know why its the constant scaremongering thats been polarised so much that it feels like its a sin and that people should be ashamed on activites that were normal before, but it hasn't helped with the likes of SAGE/media throwing it in our faces that the public must tow in fear, but wait its all a conspiracy right?

What annoys me the most is people craving for restrictions who feel personally insulated, perhaps due to the nature of the job they’re in.

It’s one thing as a genuinely short-term emergency measure, but a year and counting isn’t short-term. It makes my blood boil to see people in (what they may think are) secure jobs advocating perennial lockdown. Do they not realise that 2 years of lockdown (which is what some seem to be advocating) is simply unsustainable. No doubt they take the view that it’s okay for someone else’s livelihood to be flushed down the proverbial toilet, but can they not see that this will eventually feedback to themselves?

The frenzy yesterday was a little excessive in parts (and perhaps unhelpful as whilst people are wasting time in queues they’re not spending money!), but by goodness these businesses *need* the trade at this moment. We’ve already lost so much as a result of all this.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

What annoys me the most is people craving for restrictions who feel personally insulated, perhaps due to the nature of the job they’re in.

It’s one thing as a genuinely short-term emergency measure, but a year and counting isn’t short-term. It makes my blood boil to see people in (what they may think are) secure jobs advocating perennial lockdown. Do they not realise that 2 years of lockdown (which is what some seem to be advocating) is simply unsustainable. No doubt they take the view that it’s okay for someone else’s livelihood to be flushed down the proverbial toilet, but can they not see that this will eventually feedback to themselves?

The frenzy yesterday was a little excessive in parts (and perhaps unhelpful as whilst people are wasting time in queues they’re not spending money!), but by goodness these businesses *need* the trade at this moment. We’ve already lost so much as a result of all this.

Its unfortunate that Sunak never stuck to his guns over cutting furlough earlier as this is key to persuading many people to this way of thinking.

 

[DustyBin]

Just to clarify, Johnson said it's not just down to vaccinations.

That isn’t what he said, he completely downplayed the contribution of the vaccines

Did he?

The Sky News clip I saw, he said:

That’s exactly what he said.

What annoys me the most is people craving for restrictions who feel personally insulated, perhaps due to the nature of the job they’re in.

It’s one thing as a genuinely short-term emergency measure, but a year and counting isn’t short-term. It makes my blood boil to see people in (what they may think are) secure jobs advocating perennial lockdown. Do they not realise that 2 years of lockdown (which is what some seem to be advocating) is simply unsustainable. No doubt they take the view that it’s okay for someone else’s livelihood to be flushed down the proverbial toilet, but can they not see that this will eventually feedback to themselves?

The frenzy yesterday was a little excessive in parts (and perhaps unhelpful as whilst people are wasting time in queues they’re not spending money!), but by goodness these businesses *need* the trade at this moment. We’ve already lost so much as a result of all this.

Some people are just thick, I can’t put it anymore eloquently than that. Very very few people would be left unaffected by an extension of restrictions or another lockdown, I’m not sure we’ve seen the fallout from the last twelve months yet!

 

[kez19]

What annoys me the most is people craving for restrictions who feel personally insulated, perhaps due to the nature of the job they’re in.

It’s one thing as a genuinely short-term emergency measure, but a year and counting isn’t short-term. It makes my blood boil to see people in (what they may think are) secure jobs advocating perennial lockdown. Do they not realise that 2 years of lockdown (which is what some seem to be advocating) is simply unsustainable. No doubt they take the view that it’s okay for someone else’s livelihood to be flushed down the proverbial toilet, but can they not see that this will eventually feedback to themselves?

The frenzy yesterday was a little excessive in parts (and perhaps unhelpful as whilst people are wasting time in queues they’re not spending money!), but by goodness these businesses *need* the trade at this moment. We’ve already lost so much as a result of all this.

and that sums it up perfectly, but it also proves that people are blinkered by not seeing what is happening in the here and now, but are taken in by the media too over all this, the media drives up the fear, is being selective in its coverage and is in short getting most people wind up about it, lets also remember those in the media are quite possibly got safer jobs than those on furlough (who knows), but its helping them no matter as they won't take the flack if it goes wrong - it'll be following government/OFCOM guidelines but sorry none of this floats with me - they have all caused this culture of shaming or making people angry over it when the stark reality is the public should be seeing the bigger picture than taken in by the media (not listing all but we all get the jest), lets remember too these people who make decisions will probably have a golden handshake and walk away, they got nothing to worry about the consequences or the aftermath.

I know we speak of BBC/Sky/ITV/STV - in their own coverage during this but my estimation even in them has hit a new low but like I say they all have to take the blame for this but we'll all know nothing will happen and it'll be move onto the next subject.

Some people are just thick, I can’t put it anymore eloquently than that. Very very few people would be left unaffected by an extension of restrictions or another lockdown, I’m not sure we’ve seen the fallout from the last twelve months yet!

Oh its coming! They'll get their own rug pulled without knowing whats hit them.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

That isn’t what he said, he completely downplayed the contribution of the vaccines

It's time someone put the goalposts firmly in the ground with a tonne of Postcrete at each corner.

 

[DustyBin]

It's time someone put the goalposts firmly in the ground with a tonne of Postcrete at each corner.

I’d go for a tonne of C40 with rebar just to be safe, we know what this lot are like!

 

[brad465]

Good article in The Telegraph tonight....

Enough with the Covid gloom – the worst is behind us

Link between infections, hospitalisations and deaths has been broken – and data is even more positive than we are being told

www.telegraph.co.uk

I fully expect any attempt to reimpose restrictions to be greeted with a hounding by the Tory press and the backbenchers; the former alone would make the Government feel uncomfortable and provide energy for the latter to argue their case, including a potential leadership challenge.

 

[bramling]

It's time someone put the goalposts firmly in the ground with a tonne of Postcrete at each corner.

I think this would help. “Follow the science” is just proving to be a complete cop-out. It essentially allows anyone to get riled up / terrified / justify why their furlough should be extended forever simply by watching a scientific opinion.

We need strong leadership so badly at this moment - a politician who has the guts to say “look everyone, we *have* to move to a new phase now, if we don’t then quite simply all your lives are going to blighted for very many years to come”. Unfortunately this doesn’t go well with the puerile stuff like “we’re going to beat the virus”.

The trouble is this prime minister has presided over so many hypothetical milestones which have come and gone that no one can really take anything he says seriously now.

 

[Class 33]

Great article but nothing will change with the mourning period and CRG will have to stay off the radar as well until next week but still foresee Boris springing a pre local election improvement.

The DT could have used this mornings NHS figures for England hospitalisations which stand at 2057 down 623 from the figures quoted above.

Yes they should have mentioned England's hospital numbers instead, which is just on the verge on falling below 2000. But other than that, great article. Now, why don't we get this sort of reporting on the mainstream TV news, instead of all the nonsense doom and gloom scare mongering by the same old culprits?

Unfortunately the CRG's calls for the roadmap to be sped up has fallen on deaf ears so far. They may try again next week, but doubt it will make any difference. Johnson probably won't budge atall, what with his "We have to be cautious" attitude.

Can't get over how changeable Johnson can be. In some of his press conferences this year he has been very upbeat and triumphantly saying things like "We have almost beaten this folks! The end is almost here! We can see the light at the end of the tunnel now!". Yet in some others and in short TV interviews - particularly recently he has been somewhat downbeat and saying things like "A third wave WILL hit these shores within 3 weeks." and "Hospital numbers and deaths WILL rise again as we release lockdown.". This is so annoying.

But I think within the next 2 months now hospital numbers and deaths will continue to fall, albeit maybe slowing down somewhat from the rate we have seen over the past several weeks. They're certainly not going to surge up out of control again! So there is every reason why the next and final two stages of the roadmap easing should not be delayed, and Johnson had better not come up with some nonsense as to why they will be delayed. Come 21st June the economy needs to be fully opened up, all these ridiculous finally restrictions scrapped, and get this country back to normal again.

 

[bramling]

Yes they should have mentioned England's hospital numbers instead, which is just on the verge on falling below 2000. But other than that, great article. Now, why don't we get this sort of reporting on the mainstream TV news, instead of all the nonsense doom and gloom scare mongering by the same old culprits?

Unfortunately the CRG's calls for the roadmap to be sped up has fallen on deaf ears so far. They may try again next week, but doubt it will make any difference. Johnson probably won't budge atall, what with his "We have to be cautious" attitude.

Can't get over how changeable Johnson can be. In some of his press conferences this year he has been very upbeat and triumphantly saying things like "We have almost beaten this folks! The end is almost here! We can see the light at the end of the tunnel now!". Yet in some others and in short TV interviews - particularly recently he has been somewhat downbeat and saying things like "A third wave WILL hit these shores within 3 weeks." and "Hospital numbers and deaths WILL rise again as we release lockdown.". This is so annoying.

But I think within the next 2 months now hospital numbers and deaths will continue to fall, albeit maybe slowing down somewhat from the rate we have seen over the past several weeks. So there is every reason why the next and final two stages of the roadmap easing should not be delayed, and Johnson had better not come up with some nonsense as to why they will be delayed. Come 21st June the economy needs to be fully opened up, all these ridiculous restrictions scrapped, and get this country back to normal again.

Johnson just flaps with the wind. This is why he needs to go as soon as there’s a natural breakpoint where it’s viable for him to be replaced. How can we have confidence in a prime minister who says whatever comes into his head to get through the immediate situation?

 

[LAX54]

21st June has been bandied about so much now, it is embedded in people's mind, I think if he said that in fact it will not happen on the 21st, a majority would just ignore it, likewise May 17th 'for holidays' well at least in the UK, again to many, that is now set in stone.

 

[Bantamzen]

When the January lockdown was announced we were told that there was hope as we now had avacine. We were also told to expect life to be returned to normal by Easter.

Sadly it appears that the vacine isn't what the scientists hoped it would be. I think we may have to get used to some winter restrictions for a few months each year and enjoy what we can in the summers.

It's not good but better to accept it now and we can learn to live with the new system.

Others have said it already, but....

No
Nope
Non
Nein
Nee
Nej
Όχι
לא
Нет
لا
不

Seriously, have you even begun to think about the consequences of shutting down society every year for a few months, leaving tens of millions with reduced or even zero income from work? Not to mention the devastating effect on physical & mental health. So once again, NO!

 

[duncanp]

Others have said it already, but....

No
Nope
Non
Nein
Nee
Nej
Όχι
לא
Нет
لا
不

Seriously, have you even begun to think about the consequences of shutting down society every year for a few months, leaving tens of millions with reduced or even zero income from work? Not to mention the devastating effect on physical & mental health. So once again, NO!

It is utter nonsense to suggest that "..the vaccine isn't what the scientists hoped it would be...."

Even Professor Whitty Doom had some slides which showed that it reduced transmission of the virus by about 60%, and severe illness and hospitalisation by around 80%.

Whatever the true figures are, it seems obvious that the vaccines are having some effect, as infection rates have continued to fall despite schools reopening, whereas infection rates started to increase after schools went back in September last year.

By the time the autumn increase in respiratory viruses comes around, almost all adults in the UK will be fully vaccinated. There may be booster vaccines available for clinically vulnerable people.

The easy availability of lateral flow test kits means that people will be able to keep a stock of them at home, and test themselves if they start to get any symptoms. Ideally it should be easy to get a PCR test for confirmation if a lateral flow test is positive.

All of which means that we can treat COVID-19 as we usually treat seasonal flu, for which we do not close large parts of the economy and put people under house arrest.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Its unfortunate that Sunak never stuck to his guns over cutting furlough earlier as this is key to persuading many people to this way of thinking.

Or if he did continue furlough, it applied to those businesses and industries such as travel who need an extension the most. But furlough does need to end this summer/autumn.

 

[initiation]

21st June has been bandied about so much now, it is embedded in people's mind, I think if he said that in fact it will not happen on the 21st, a majority would just ignore it, likewise May 17th 'for holidays' well at least in the UK, again to many, that is now set in stone.

Part of me agrees (and that is a benefit of the seemingly dates not data approach they are taking) however I can see them 'fudging' what they mean by no social restrictions. e.g. masks continue, groups can be any size but only outdoors etc

 

[Jamesrob637]

Part of me agrees (and that is a benefit of the seemingly dates not data approach they are taking) however I can see them 'fudging' what they mean by no social restrictions. e.g. masks continue, groups can be any size but only outdoors etc

I could just about tolerate that as long as some indoor gatherings are allowed. But only for a further month or so.

 

[DustyBin]

Part of me agrees (and that is a benefit of the seemingly dates not data approach they are taking) however I can see them 'fudging' what they mean by no social restrictions. e.g. masks continue, groups can be any size but only outdoors etc

I’ve said it before but I can see restrictions being relabelled as “precautions” just so they can say they kept their promise. Of course some people will buy it and parrot the government line that precautions are sensible at this point etc. etc. I hope I’m wrong but I don’t trust the government one bit.

 

[Eyersey468]

I’ve said it before but I can see restrictions being relabelled as “precautions” just so they can say they kept their promise. Of course some people will buy it and parrot the government line that precautions are sensible at this point etc. etc. I hope I’m wrong but I don’t trust the government one bit.

I don't trust them either

 

[initiation]

A professor of statistics at Edinburgh university takes a hatchet to Boris' assertion that lockdowns caused the drop in infections.
In all three lockdowns infections are found to be on the decline before lockdown was implemented. Of course deaths lag so were still on the up and this puts pressure on politicians to 'do something'.

Covid and the lockdown effect: a look at the evidence

What forces Covid into reverse? To many, the obvious answer is lockdown. Cases were surging right up until the start of the three lockdowns, we’re told. It’s often said that all else failed. The Prime Minister said on Tuesday that lockdown, far more than vaccines, explains the fall in...

www.spectator.co.uk

We can follow the science, but only the right kind of science OK?

There is also discussion of this bizarre model adjustment used by Imperial

The Imperial study does not disagree that Swedish infections declined without lockdown. In fact, to accommodate this anomaly their model treats the final March intervention in Sweden (shutting colleges and upper years secondary schools) as if it was lockdown. As many others have pointed out, that’s a strange way to model the set of data that most directly suggests that lockdown might not have been essential.

Edit: the full peer reviewed paper the article is based on can be read here https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/biom.13462

 

[duncanp]

I’ve said it before but I can see restrictions being relabelled as “precautions” just so they can say they kept their promise. Of course some people will buy it and parrot the government line that precautions are sensible at this point etc. etc. I hope I’m wrong but I don’t trust the government one bit.

I think this is what will happen at the end of June - all the current restrictions will become advisory, or recommendations.

Then a lot of coronaphobic local authorities, shops and pubs will try to morally blackmail people into things like wearing masks, and train companies will try and pretend that services are "sold out".

We have seen this sort of thing this week, where people (including me ) have been refused service in a pub because they don't have a smartphone.

The pub I was refused service in tried to pretend it was "government regulations" or they needed to "keep people safe" (excuse me whilst I throw up) whereas government regulations state no such thing. To some extent I sympathise with the pub, because they have been bullied and threatened so much by the government, but everyone needs to take a stand against pointless regulations.

We will see the same thing if vaccine passports are allowed, but not made compulsory. Some places will insist on them, and others will not.

Fortunately I managed to find a pub that did old fashioned things like taking cash and cards for payment, so the net result is the pub which refused to serve me lost out on some revenue. We all need to vote with our feet and patronise those establishments that treat us like human beings whose custom is valued, and not like some plague ridden scumbags who are regarded as a nuisance.

EDIT : I am pleased to see that the pub in Corbridge, Northumberland, has apologised to the man who was refused service on Monday because he didn't have a smartphone. They have invited him over for some free drinks. It is amazing to see what a bit of negative publicity can do, and it is a sign of good customer service when a business admits they have made a mistake and does what they can to make amends.

 

[packermac]

I think this is what will happen at the end of June - all the current restrictions will become advisory, or recommendations.

Then a lot of coronaphobic local authorities, shops and pubs will try to morally blackmail people into things like wearing masks, and train companies will try and pretend that services are "sold out".

We have seen this sort of thing this week, where people (including me ) have been refused service in a pub because they don't have a smartphone.

The pub I was refused service in tried to pretend it was "government regulations" or they needed to "keep people safe" (excuse me whilst I throw up) whereas government regulations state no such thing. To some extent I sympathise with the pub, because they have been bullied and threatened so much by the government, but everyone needs to take a stand against pointless regulations.

We will see the same thing if vaccine passports are allowed, but not made compulsory. Some places will insist on them, and others will not.

Fortunately I managed to find a pub that did old fashioned things like taking cash and cards for payment, so the net result is the pub which refused to serve me lost out on some revenue. We all need to vote with our feet and patronise those establishments that treat us like human beings whose custom is valued, and not like some plague ridden scumbags who are regarded as a nuisance.

EDIT : I am pleased to see that the pub in Corbridge, Northumberland, has apologised to the man who was refused service on Monday because he didn't have a smartphone. They have invited him over for some free drinks. It is amazing to see what a bit of negative publicity can do, and it is a sign of good customer service when a business admits they have made a mistake and does what they can to make amends.

I too do not have a smartphone, have no intention of getting one unless it becomes the only medium to show a vaccine passport, but see nothing wrong with pub refusing entrance. After all a publican has always been able to refuse anyone entrance as long as not based on race.

 

[Huntergreed]

I too do not have a smartphone, have no intention of getting one unless it becomes the only medium to show a vaccine passport, but see nothing wrong with pub refusing entrance. After all a publican has always been able to refuse anyone entrance as long as not based on race.

Or any of the other protected characteristics, two of which are age and disability (both of which vaccine passports, at least for now, discriminate against)

 

[Jamesrob637]

With 2,491 cases, 38 deaths (down 7 on last Wednesday) and 2,481 hospitalizations (down from 2,862 on Monday) things are still going the right way.

Three days into the "semi-normal" period and peoples' moods have definitely lifted.

 

[duncanp]

I too do not have a smartphone, have no intention of getting one unless it becomes the only medium to show a vaccine passport, but see nothing wrong with pub refusing entrance. After all a publican has always been able to refuse anyone entrance as long as not based on race.

I appreciate pubs have the right to refuse service as long as the reason isn't related to a protected characteristic. but that doesn't mean it is a good thing.

The hospitality industry has been hit hard by the COVID-19 closures, and should be doing everything it can to encourage customers back in, not turning them away and incorrectly blaming government regulations.

 

[Crossover]

With 2,491 cases, 38 deaths (down 7 on last Wednesday) and 2,481 hospitalizations (down from 2,862 on Monday) things are still going the right way.

Three days into the "semi-normal" period and peoples' moods have definitely lifted.

We have moved under the 2k English hospitalisations today, too

The 7 day moving average of deaths remains up, however I believe part of which is due to the reporting last week being changed by the bank holidays. I suspect the downward trend will return again in the coming days

 

[duncanp]

It is instructive to look at deaths by date of death since 8th March, the date of the first lockdown easing.

On 8th March there were 145 COVID deaths

On 8th April there were 28 COVID deaths, which represents a fall of 80% since 8th March.

Similarly, the number of COVID patients in hospital has fallen by 70% since 8th March, and the number of cases by specimen date has fallen by 55% in the same period.

I think this shows that Stage 1 of lockdown easing has not cause the big surge in cases that everyone was afraid of.

 

[Dent]

I think this shows that Stage 1 of lockdown easing has not cause the big surge in cases that everyone was afraid of.

"Everyone was afraid of" is an exaggeration. I know I for one was not, I saw the sensationalised scaremongering in the media for what it was.

 

[PR1Berske]

"Everyone was afraid of" is an exaggeration. I know I for one was not, I saw the sensationalised scaremongering in the media for what it was.

It was a global disaster with no known cure. We were right to listen to scientists and stay inside. We might yet still need to.

By the by, every country on Earth bar North Korea used lockdowns and social movement restrictions to combat Covid. The tone amongst libertarians is that this was a British overreaction or a British problem, that only the British government was following lockdowns.

It was a global pandemic. Every country on the planet reacted the same way. Every country on the planet shut down businesses. Every country on the planet had to keep movement restricted, there was no choice with such a deadly respiratory disease for which, initially, there was no cure.

We could not feasibly been an island alone, promoting a total lack of care for health and welfare.