Electrification is a system, which itself is part of a railway system; there is so much more to it than the contact element (OLE or third rail). I have managed and operated both systems, and there is no question that OLE is better. We have had previous threads on this, but in summary:
Safety: the OLE is up in the air and largely out of the way. Conductor rail is on the ground and very much in the way. I know several people who through work (or in 2 cases, trespassing) have come into contact with the con rail; I don’t know anyone who has come into contact with the OLE. This safety issue then comes into maintenance...
Maintenance: because of the safety issue, almost any work to the track needs the con rail isolated. This adds time to the maintenance process, and time = money. For a given no trains period, track maintenance in con rail areas is about 20% less efficient as a result. Signalling is more complicated due to the high currents associated with con rail electrification, this requires much more robust kit and extra bonding. This also means extra maintenance, costs more to install and is more to fail. Maintenance of the conrail itself is relatively straightforward, it’s only a rail, but all the cabling, bonding, and distribution system is more chunky and clunky, and all of it is necessarily at ground level.
Reliability: the con rail itself is relatively reliable, although it does fail as Southern passengers found out earlier this week, and London Overground passengers into Euston will tell you this morning. However all the distribution kit behind it is vulnerable, particularly the power connections and bonding, and they regularly fail, sometimes spectacularly. This is very rare with OLE. Much more of an issue though is consequent effects of other incidents. With con rail in the event of trespass, a suicide, flooding, deep lying snow, obstruction on the line, and more, the power has to go off. We have seen all these (except the snow) this week in third rail areas, and we do most weeks (flooding excepted). With OLE it’s not an issue. With the power off not only can’t trains move, but trains in the affected section but unaffected by the incident itself are stranded, and this can lead to passengers self-detraining, as we see regularly. And then the power has to stay off longer. The con rail is also very vulnerable to ice, even heavy frost, whilst OLE isnt except in extreme conditions. Aside from a major failure of a feeder station (which can happen with either system), the only reliability problem with the OLE is something falling on it, a failure of the contact or catenary wire, some of which is caused by a pantograph problem on the train. There is no doubt in my mined that a OLE railway is significantly more reliable than a con rail railway.
Efficiency: distributing 750v D.C. means, (because of the laws of physics), that more power is lost before it reaches the train. I can’t rememeber the precise number, but I think it’s about 20%, ie you need 20% more power from the grid to achieve the same result on the train. Also, and this is important, it is more difficult to deliver the high power necessary for intensive / long / quick service patterns with con rail. This is why all dual voltage trains are reduced in power when they get to the con rail - it’s not that the train isn’t capable, out there isn’t enough power in the con rail. To rectify this (pardon the pun), means, effectively doubling the number of substations and all the distribution kit. That’s billions.