Anyone noticed anecdotally another uptick in passenger numbers

[Peter Sarf]

There has not been a journey of over 50 miles that I have taken in the last 12 to 18 months where there hasn't been some form of disruption and a good few under the 50 or 60 mile threshold as well, especially when said journey involves Thameslink in or out of North Kent or the Elizabeth line
Has somebody said above, it's a minor miracle that passenger numbers have climbed back largely to pre-pandemic levels, somehow doubt they will do a great deal of growing while the current order persists

I think one concern is that the big loss in numbers has been travel associated with season tickets so there is a nice wedge of income up front gone missing. It is more a rise in off peak travel compared to a loss of peak travel.

Going back in time to the invention of the cheap day return. It was always a device to fill underused off peak services. Perhaps we have at last achieved that - bye bye off peak returns (I hope not).

I am seeing a pressure for people to return to working from work.

I've been around London early this Sunday morning. No Marathon or similar. Grey, cold, wet and windy. Yet the trains are notably busy. District Line from Earls Court to Paddington, a less-frequented branch, was well-filled. Elizabeth arriving at Paddington at 0900 from Reading, not Heathrow, full and standing (including one with a real Penny Farthing bicycle!).

I did notice the trains well-filled but the buses empty.

My bold - I do hope it was a folding bike !.

Hopefully. Another part of the problem is the shorter trains just outside of the peaks, I'm finding it can be close to full and standing on the five car services.

A lot of my journey are off peak Monday-Friday.
East Croydon to Victoria 10:00-12:00 these are getting very crowded meaning platform dwell time at East Croydon gets extended. These seem to be mainly 8 car services where 12car would have been the norm before Covid. So would need these services to be 150% loaded to justify return to 12 coaches. Obviously some would be extended first leaving others to catch up later.
Back to East Croydon from London, usually 18:00 or later, I find both Thames link and Victoria routes are busy, possibly Thameslink worse.

Also yesterday (Saturday) East Croydon to Victoria at about 17:40 8car was standing passengers. I really struggled to get from the rear to the front. Got a seat at Clapham Junction.

 

[PGAT]

So would need these services to be 150% loaded to justify return to 12 coaches.

Not really true though, 150% would be the threshold where you just cannot support more passengers

 

[Bald Rick]

Elizabeth arriving at Paddington at 0900 from Reading, not Heathrow, full and standing (including one with a real Penny Farthing bicycle!).

Mr Rees-Mogg off to church, one presumes.

 

[Taunton]

I do hope it was a folding bike !.

Full size one. Would be interesting at the gateline. But there it was.

Mr Rees-Mogg off to church, one presumes.

In that case he's sprouted the most enormous full size beard since last on TV

 

[Snow1964]

Interesting written Government reply to adjusting the timetable as passenger numbers rise, make of it what you will

Lord Davies of Gower
Conservative
Life peer
Lords

Answered on​

29 April 2024
As the pandemic has changed travel habits, train operators are using this opportunity to reassess their services to provide rail timetables that respond to new passenger travel patterns, and carefully balance cost, capacity and performance.
Timetables should be demand-led and built with flexibility in mind, so if passenger numbers increase as we continue to recover from the pandemic, we can look to accommodate additional services. Where operators have modified their timetables, the changes are kept under review and, where appropriate, adjusted to reflect fluctuations in demand. Additional services will be included in the upcoming timetable change.

https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2024-04-18/hl3933

 

[Taunton]

I think in the short term the timetable is broadly adequate, but the number of vehicles provided is something that can be more rapidly addressed. In particular this applies to situations where passengers who by this stage have actually been sold tickets are being left behind due to gross under capacity, while stock is left in sidings and depots.

The railway used to be much better at this. I recall on the Wirral electric lines in past times it was a local decision, almost by the hour and certainly on the day before, to judge whether weekend services should be 3-car or 6-car. If under-provided, there was a further plan on how to get the extras out. Nowadays such ability by staff on the ground seems swept away, someone at HQ budgeted their vehicle mileage, likely for the year, someone else has devised a minimal-staff maintenance plan to fit that, and it seems it must not be touched whatever arises on the day.

All through lockdown we had full length trains run as empty stock because they were "justified for essential workers", despite the fact that not only had the regular passengers deserted them, but so had the essential workers as well, who found that with much quieter roads the car was better. Finally coming to a reduced operation, just as the passengers progressively come back, it seems the organisation is typically years behind the demand.

 

[Snow1964]

DfT has updated their spreadsheet vs pre-covid

Most recent figures is 100% or 90% (excluding Elizabeth line) columns G and H

It is varying quite a bit, through the month, with recent high around 16th April was 103% and 93%, but percentages get dips during ASLEF disruption antics

Daily domestic transport use by mode

Daily usage of selected domestic transport by mode for Great Britain

www.gov.uk

Of course that 90% national average is probably masking some big variations with some operators probably 10-20% above and others 10-20% below. Locally on some lines could be higher.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

DfT has updated their spreadsheet vs pre-covid

Most recent figures is 100% or 90% (excluding Elizabeth line) columns G and H

It is varying quite a bit, through the month, with recent high around 16th April was 103% and 93%, but percentages get dips during ASLEF disruption antics

Daily domestic transport use by mode

Daily usage of selected domestic transport by mode for Great Britain

www.gov.uk

Of course that 90% national average is probably masking some big variations with some operators probably 10-20% above and others 10-20% below. Locally on some lines could be higher.

I really feel we're now at the top end of what's possible compared with Pre COVID given the shorter trains used in many areas and the cuts to services in others

 

[Bletchleyite]

I really feel we're now at the top end of what's possible compared with Pre COVID given the shorter trains used in many areas and the cuts to services in others

I think there is more to go once the disputes are resolved.

 

[Bald Rick]

I really feel we're now at the top end of what's possible compared with Pre COVID given the shorter trains used in many areas and the cuts to services in others

Still loads of ‘room’ to grow, especially off peak.

 

[Mag_seven]

I passed through a major London terminal at 11.00 this morning and was amazed at how busy it was for a mid-week, mid-morning during school term. Lots of obviously leisure travellers with suitcases etc.

 

[railfan99]

I passed through a major London terminal at 11.00 this morning and was amazed at how busy it was for a mid-week, mid-morning during school term. Lots of obviously leisure travellers with suitcases etc.

Which terminal? Great to hear, despite it only being your spring, not 'super peak' summer.

 

[ChrisC]

I think there is more to go once the disputes are resolved.

There must be lots of people who are not currently making plans for future travel by rail whilst there is the possibility of strike action. I would usually have a number of trips away booked now for the coming months which would involve rail travel and even use of regional rovers. I currently have hotels booked for the end of June and end of July but in locations where I will be taking my car. I’d love to be able to confidently be able to book hotels for the second half of this year that would involve travelling by rail.